Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Latest Episodes:

Gold’s Time To Shine | Joseph Cavatoni on Central Bank Bullion Purchases, Permitting Reform in U.S., and Global Investor Demand for Gold Jun 29, 2025

Show notes

Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist at The World Gold Council, joins Jack to share the developments within the global gold market. Cavatoni shares findings from The World Gold Council’s recent report on central banks’ gold reserves, and he explains current demand trends across the world. He reviews the supply situation and tells Jack about the more mine-friendly permitting regime from the new U.S. administration. Recorded on June 23, 2025.World Gold Council’s Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2025

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The Healthcare Sector Job Growth is Propping Up the US Economy (For Now) | Eric Pachman Jun 26, 2025

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Eric Pachman, Chief Analytics Officer at Bancreek Capital Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the healthcare sector, the strongest sector for job growth in the whole economy, could falter because of the proposed cuts to spending in the Big Beautiful Bill and potentially even tip the whole economy into a recession. He also discusses how important government spending is in propping up the healthcare industry, making it largely unaffected by the tools the Federal Reserve would likely use to combat a potential recession led by the healthcare sector.

Read more from Eric and try Bancreek’s data visualization tools: https://www.bancreek.com/blog

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The Window of Vulnerability | Tian Yang on Global Imbalances, the Dollar, Growth Vulnerabilities, and Housing (Plus A Special Offering for Monetary Matters Listeners) Jun 22, 2025

Show notes

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Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, returns to Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on global imbalances that have been building in the monetary system for decades. He shares what his data-driven approach indicates about the U.S. Dollar, global equities, and more. He also explains the challenges he sees ahead for U.S. homebuilding companies. Recorded June 19, 2025.

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Fed Scared of Inflation Resurgence | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

Jack Farley and Max Wiethe break down the market’s reaction to today’s Federal Reserve decision, the Summary of Economic Projections, and Jerome Powell’s press conference. They also discuss parallels between this market and late 2021, debate whether AI is a bubble, and the eternal question of when the next US recession will occur.

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Equity Market Strength is Masking a Recession | Mike Green Jun 18, 2025

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Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the strength of the equity market and other technical factors are obfuscating weakness in the US consumer and broader indicators of economic weakness to the point that it could be masking a recession. Green also discusses his views on inflation, the bond market, and the current stage of the passive investing endgame that he believes is the main culprit driving equity markets higher and higher.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:46 US Consumer Mirage

08:59 The Impact of High Interest Rates

13:39 Labor Market Weakness Will Eventually Force the Fed to Cut

15:03 Current Stage of the Passive Endgame

25:25 Recession Timing

33:31 How Will Asset Values Fair in the Next Recession?

40:30 Bond Market &Inflation Views

46:38 Uber's Impact on Unemployment

52:03 Tariff Uncertainty & the Fed

54:04 Bonds, Housing, & Other Macro Trades

01:02:03 Bitcoin, Solana, & Other Closing Thoughts

The Fed Will Choose Inflation Over Recession | Vincent Deluard Jun 15, 2025

Show notes

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX joins Monetary Matters to discuss why he believes changes to policy makers toolkit and to the structure of the economy mean recessions are “cancelled.” He also discusses why he believes Trump’s MAGA economic policies will be bad for corporate profit margins and his bullish outlook on oil and energy stocks.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:07 Recessions are Cancelled

08:23 The No Recession Feedback Loop

11:11 Impact of Tariffs

13:21 MAGA’s War on Corporate Profits

19:26 Corporate Tax Rates

21:56 Fiscal Balance of Payments Crisis

26:11 Outlook for Inflation, Growth, and Rates

36:07 Outlook for the Stock Market

40:51 US Multiples Compared to Rest of the World

45:18 Bullish View on Oil & Energy Sector

55:15 July Fed Predictions

Capacity Constrained by Design: The 25-Year-Old Building Niche Multi-Manager Hedge Fund Platforms | Zach Levitt Jun 12, 2025

Show notes

Zach Levitt, CIO and Founder of Sixth Turn Capital and Opus One Asset Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he is standing up multi-manager platforms at just 25 years old by focusing on niche capacity constrained managers. Levitt discusses the benefits of combining uncorrelated capacity constrained strategies in a multi-manager platform, his unconventional path to founding a multi-manager platform, how mentorship has helped accelerate his growth, and how he goes about attracting talented investors to his platform.

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:48 Skipping the Analyst Track and Founding a Hedge Fund at 25

07:14 Many Great Track Records Indicate Nefarious Information Was Traded On

09:42 What Does a Good Capacity Constrained Manager Look Like?

13:38 What Level of Correlation is "Uncorrelated"

18:20 What Level of Capacity is "Capacity Constrained"?

21:30 Mentorship Through Podcasts & Cold Outreach

26:13 Convincing Managers To Join Your Platform as a 25 Year Old

28:46 Investor Interest in SMAs vs Commingled Funds

35:25 Battling Startup Costs

39:06 Selling Talented Investors on Your Success Story

43:39 Risk Management and Cutting Portfolio Managers

47:38 Marketing "Hypothetical" Track Records

52:32 Next Stages of Growth

54:20 Assessing the Capacity Limits

57:17 Can PA Traders Become PMs?

Trade Policy Isn't Driving China’s Trade Surplus | Matthew Klein Jun 11, 2025

Show notes

Matthew Klein, founder of The Overshoot and UN/BALANCED and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars with Michael Pettis joins Monetary Matters to discuss what factors really lead to major trade and capital flow imbalances between countries. He argues that factors like income inequality, domestic economic policy and decisions being made at the corporate level can have far more impact than country level trade policy. He also discusses why even though extreme trade and capital flow imbalances may be dangerous, implementing improper solutions can exacerbate the damage.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:52 Why Trade Wars Are Class Wars

12:13 Trade Surpluses vs Trade Deficits

18:51 Income Distribution Drives Capital Flows

28:28 China's Shifting Income Distribution

33:41 The Problem With China's Growing Trade and Current Account Surplus

41:51 Who is Winning in China?

44:04 How to Combat China's "Cheating on Trade"

49:25 Who Has the Upper Hand in Trade Negotiations?

54:05 Will Tariffs Drive Reshoring?

59:53 How Can the US Restore Balance of Trade?

01:08:29 Conclusions

“The Dollar Gets Annihilated” | Julian Brigden & Jonny Matthews on Fiscal Dominance, Secular Bond Bear Market, and Outlook on Rates & Tariffs Jun 08, 2025

Show notes

This conversation was originally recorded for Julian Brigden’s research service, MacroCapture. Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at:

https://mi2partners.com/macrocapture-landing-page/

Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners and veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro join Monetary Matters for a wide-ranging discussion of the forces that are contributing to a global weak market in sovereign bonds. Recorded May 28th and released for Julian’s MacroCapture clients on June 3rd.

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What Investors Are Overlooking in AI & Semis | Val Zlatev Jun 05, 2025

Show notes

Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at hard tech specialist hedge fund Analog Century Capital Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss what he thinks investors still fail to appreciate about the secular growth of AI and semiconductors. He also discusses why DeepSeek was so misunderstood, other aspects of the AI supply chain, the state of the analog chip cycle, running long/short and market neutral strategies and garnering interest from the large multi-manager platforms.

Learn More About Analog Century Capital Management: https://www.analogcm.com/

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:15 What is Hard Tech?

02:41 The Evolution of the Hard Tech Sector From the 90s to Now

05:04 Investors Are Underweight Hard Tech

11:09 The Massive Impact of the End of Moore's Law

16:59 New Investment in Semiconductor Capacity

18:08 Why AI Should Be Compared to Cloud, Not Fiber

22:55 What Investors Got Wrong About DeepSeek

25:41 The US Government's Impact on AI & Chips

33:04 The Chinese Government’s Involvement in AI & Chips

35:13 Dominant Players in Chinese Semiconductor Market

39:12 The AI Supply Chain Beyond Semiconductors

43:53 Analog Semiconductors & Power Management

49:55 Winners, Losers, and Fakers in AI

57:03 Research Process for Hard Tech

01:01:25 Dispersion in Hard Tech Returns

01:03:31 Trading and Portfolio Construction at Analog Century

01:08:13 Market Neutral & Garnering Interest From Multi-Manager Platforms

01:12:20 Market Neutral vs Long/Short Investors

01:14:51 The Value of Partners and Team Continuity

01:16:42 Conclusion

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