Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Latest Episodes:

Ken Rogoff on Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Dollar Hegemony May 12, 2025

Show notes

To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus

Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/

Ken Rogoff’s new book on the U.S. Dollar on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315

On Publisher’s site: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/

Ken Rogoff, renowned economist and author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead” traces the development of the U.S. Dollar’s rise to world dominance, and he connects it with the trade and capital imbalances that have recently motivated large tariff actions from the United States. Rogoff argues that he thinks the Trump tariff policy through April 30 2025 was somewhat “dumb” but that there is a chance that 10 years from now Trump will be viewed as having been right. Recorded April 30, 2025.

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The Global Trade Reset Was Inevitable | George Magnus May 08, 2025

Show notes

George Magnus, famed economist and Associate at the China Centre Oxford, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the global trade reset was inevitable because of unsustainable trade imbalances built up prior to the Trump administration. They also discuss the likelihood of tariffs being lowered and the relative strength of the US and China in trade negotiations.
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Wait & See | Jack & Max on May Fed Meeting, Shipping Volumes, China Stimulus, and Tariff Newsflow May 07, 2025

Show notes

Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, Other People’s Money podcast host. The two discuss the May Fed meeting, in which Powell repeatedly stressed that the central bank is in a wait and see posture as it gauges how tariffs will impact inflation and growth. The two also discuss shipping volumes, tariff front running, and China’s recent monetary stimulus. Recorded May 7, 2025.

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Getting Ready For A Protracted Bear Market | Last Bear Standing May 06, 2025

Show notes

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe

Last Bear Standing joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks subpar equity returns are likely. In his words, “ The market’s current decline is not a correction, a bump in the road, or a dip to be bought. We have entered a protracted bear market.” Recorded on May 1, 2025.

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“The Matador”: https://substack.com/@thelastbearstanding/p-162490853

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End of Free Trade Era Should Not Spook Long-Term Investors | Kara Murphy May 04, 2025

Show notes

Kara Murphy, CIO of Kestra Investment Management, joins Monetary Matters to share her investment outlook at a time of great uncertainty in global financial markets. Murphy argues that investors are best served taking a long-term approach, and investors with a long-time horizon ought not to spooked by policy-induced short-term gyrations in the stock market. Recorded on May 2, 2025.

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How Hedge Funds Have Managed Market Turmoil with Jack and Max Apr 30, 2025

Show notes

The first 4 months of 2025 have been highly volatile hurting both equity and fixed income investors alike, but how has the “smart money” faired in this environment? Jack and Max breakdown the performance of hedge funds in Q1 and April of 2025 with data from Citco Fund Services and HFRI. They also discuss the recent moves by Yale and Harvard to sell some of their private equity stakes and other indicators that might signal trouble ahead for PE as an asset class.

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Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities | Teucrium's Sal Gilbertie on Grain Stockpiles, Trade Disruptions To Crops, and Ripple (FIRESIDE CHAT) Apr 28, 2025

Show notes

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe

Learn more about Teucrium’s Model Commodity Portfolio: https://insights.teucrium.com/commodities1subscribe

Golden Grain Cycle: https://insights.teucrium.com/golden-grain-cycle

This Fireside Chat is a sponsored conversation with the CEO of Teucrium, Sal Gilbertie. Sal’s company offers access to agricultural commodities such as corn ($CORN), soybeans ($SOYB), wheat ($WEAT), sugar, as well as broad commodity indices ($TAGS & $TILL) and 2x levered Ripple ($XXRP).

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The Financial Sector Prepares for Recession | Marc Rubinstein Apr 27, 2025

Show notes

Marc Rubinstein, former hedge fund manager and author of Net Interest joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the financial sector is preparing itself for the risks of a recession and how they are managing tariff uncertainty during this earnings season. Rubinstein touches on the different subsectors of the financial sector, like banks, non-banks, asset managers and payments companies, as well as how financials in different geographies may benefit from the reshuffling of global trade.
Read Marc’s Net Interest Substack on The Great Payments Processor Reshuffle of 2025: https://www.netinterest.co/p/partner-swap

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Hidden Mortgage Market Shifts Are Creating Opportunities | Matt Jozoff of Trevally Capital Apr 24, 2025

Show notes

Matt Jozoff, co-CEO, Portfolio Manager, and Head of Macro Research at Trevally Capital joins Other People’s Money, to discuss how trends like the growth in the Ginnie Mae market, low credit borrowers and non-bank originators, and other factors are affecting mortgage prepayments and creating opportunities in the mortgage market for firms like Trevally Capital. He also discusses how Trevally Capital is looking to extract alpha from these opportunities and build a world-class institutional asset manager with the backing of partners like The Raptor Group and Seaport Global Securities.

Learn more about Trevally Capital: https://www.trevallycapital.com/

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:33 Post-Tariff Fixed Income Market Update

06:49 Recent Mortgage Market Developments

10:45 Ginnie Mae Mortgages

12:04 Not Calling For Another Mortgage Crisis

13:42 Nobody Can Afford Refinancing

17:24 Trump Admin and Fannie & Freddie

21:08 Factors Affecting Mortgage Prepayments

28:27 Day one Institutional Quality

34:53 Prepayments Part II

39:04 Importance of Seed Investors like Raptor & Seaport Global

42:07 Hedge Fund Seed Investing is Venture Capital

43:55 Peers & Competitors in the Mortgage Market

49:36 Physics & Cincinnati Connection

Tariffs Aren’t Going Away | PIMCO’s Policy Head Libby Cantrill on Trade and Tax Environment In New U.S. Administration Apr 23, 2025

Show notes

Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, joins Monetary Matters to explain her outlook on U.S. trade and tax policy. Cantrill argues that while Trump administration has flexibility in tariff negotiations and that the China tariffs are likely headed much lower (a prediction that already looks like it will come true), tariffs are not going away anytime soon and she views the 10% tariffs on the world as a floor, with reciprocal tariffs on top of that floor especially on China being elevated. Cantrill also shares her views on sectoral tariffs, the rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (she doesn’t think it has traction), and tax cuts. Recorded the afternoon of April 22, 2025.

Follow Libby Cantrill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/libby-cantrill-cfa-17162513b/

Most recent piece, “Overall U.S. Tariff Level Still High Despite Exemptions”:

https://www.pimco.com/us/en/insights/overall-us-tariff-level-still-high-despite-exemptions

Cantrill’s profile on PIMCO: https://www.pimco.com/us/en/experts/libby-cantrill

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