Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Latest Episodes:

Soaring US Debt Burden & The Global Market Reset | Gerard Minack Jun 04, 2025

Show notes

To learn more about the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ): https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/

To view the prospectus: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus

Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors joins Monetary Matters to discuss why even though other developed nations like Japan may have higher debt to GDP ratios, factors like net debt, monetized debt, and the overall size of US debt make this comparison flawed. He argues these factors make the current trajectory of US debt levels completely unsustainable and that the bond vigilantes will step in long before even more extreme levels are reached. He also discussed the extreme valuation gap for US assets compared to the rest of the world, why he thinks that gap will narrow, Mag 7 dominance and AI, and why he thinks Japan, not China, is the large Asian market set to outperform.

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You can find Gerard Minack on Bloomberg

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:24 Van Eck OUNZ

01:00 Interest Rate & Bond Market Views

09:13 Comparing US Debt Levels to Japan

12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data

16:19 Two Growth Scenarios Affecting Rates This Year

23:30 Van Eck OUNZ

24:05 The New World of Higher Rates

33:12 How Higher Rates Impact Stocks

43:01 The AI Trade and US Valuations

49:23 The US Valuation Gap vs The Rest of the World

53:12 Mag 7 Dominance

01:03:15 Bearish on Chinese Stocks and Bullish on Japan

01:09:23 Japan's Macro Backdrop

01:16:19 The Neutral Rate & Demographics

01:21:22 No Recessions in Australia

01:26:16 Australian Outlook

American Exceptionalism was a Fiscal Facade | Marko Papic Jun 01, 2025

Show notes

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, joins Monetary Matters to argue that while tariffs may be the catalyst that shifts global appetites for US assets, it will be the necessary shift to fiscal hawkishness that will drive the end of “American Exceptionalism” and outperformance of US markets. Papic also discusses his views on as shift towards a multipolar world and why he views the dual polar world with US and China as competing global hegemons as the least likely outcome when compared with a multipolar reality or the revitalization of the American Empire.

Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://x.com/Geo_papic

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

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Timestamps:

01:00 Why TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is Wrong

08:29 Recession Risks vs Stock Market Risks

12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data

15:12 Timeline for Trade Policy Certainty

20:53 Tariffs as a Catalyst for Domestic Economic Improvements Globally

26:47 The US Fiscal Facade

28:28 China Outlook

30:14 The Big Beautiful Bill & US Fiscal Deficit

41:02 DOGE’s Political Signal Value

48:09 US Defense Spending

51:13 Russia & Ukraine War

56:07 Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World

01:03:01 Middle East Stability

Patient Value Investing and America’s Industrial Advantage | Bob Robotti May 29, 2025

Show notes

Bob Robotti, legendary value investor and President and CIO of Robotti and Company Advisors, is one of a very select group of investors with a 30+ year track record of S&P 500 outperformance. Here he joins Other People’s Money to discuss long-term value investing, why he likes to invest in companies perceived to be facing headwinds, and his view that American based industrial companies are competitively advantaged for reasons completely unaffected by trade policy. He also discusses how he operates both an advisory business and a broker dealer business and how the broker dealer has served as a starting point for many other great value investors.
Learn More About Robotti Advisors: https://advisors.robotti.com

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:27 Patient Capital

08:05 Investing in Companies with Headwinds

12:13 Building Products Businesses

16:08 North American Industrial Advantage

22:41 Industries Returning to the USA

27:18 Valuing Businesses on Cost of Replacement

30:56 The Links Between Lumber, Building Products, and Housing

33:24 Engaging With Management in Long-term Positions

39:04 Trading Around Long-Term Positions

47:57 Buying Stocks After They've Gone Up

52:56 Trading Against Each Other

55:01 Having a Broker Dealer and Advisory Business

59:15 Jumping From the Sell Side to the Buy Side

01:04:08 Capital Churn

01:06:03 All US Equity Investors Should Compare Themselves to the S&P 500

Regime of Uncertainty | Steve Hanke on Money Supply Shock, Tariff and Current Account, and Why Recession Remains Base Case For 2025 May 28, 2025

Show notes

To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus

Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/

Steve Hanke, author of “Making Money Work” and Professor of Applied Economics The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on the anemic bank credit growth, fiscal and tariffs policy in the United States, and the global Dollar system. Recorded May 20, 2025.

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Steve Hanke on Twitter https://x.com/steve_hanke

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Steve’s book, “Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System”, on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260

“Making Money Work” from Publisher (Wiley): https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Making+Money+Work%3A+How+to+Rewrite+the+Rules+of+Our+Financial+System-p-9781394257270

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Economic Policy To The Fore | Jason Furman on Deregulation, Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Healthcare May 25, 2025

Show notes

Jason Furman, former Chairman of Council of Economic Advisers for President Obama and Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University, joins Monetary Matters to share his view of the Trump administration’s “three-legged stool” of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts. Recorded May 20, 2025.

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

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Fiscal Decay, EM Parallels, and What’s Next for the Dollar | Nicolás Dujovne May 23, 2025

Show notes

Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset Management and former Treasury Minister of Argentina joins Monetary Matters to discuss the evolution of emerging market economies, EM debt investing, and why even though the US’s failure to address fiscal issues may be reminiscent of emerging markets it still falls short of full EM status even if it risks the US Dollar’s reserve currency status over the long run. Dujovne also identifies the opportunities he's watching now, explains why he thinks the dollar is moving lower, and makes the case for EM debt becoming more common in investor portfolios.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS. Historical performance is included for informational purposes only and should not be relied on as being indicative of results that will be achieved by the Fund. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. Differences in the timing of the transactions, capital contributions or withdrawals, and market conditions prevailing at the time of the investment will lead to different results. Performance shown is for the stated time period only. Performance is presented net of fees and expenses and assumes the reinvestment of income and earnings. The net figures reflect the deduction of management fees (1.5%) and incentive fees (15%). BENCHMARKS. The performance of the Fund is shown as compared to indices. Broad-based securities indices are unmanaged and are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with investment funds. Investments cannot be made directly in a broad-based securities index. The benchmark is provided for reference only and does not imply that the Fund will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to the benchmark. The composition of a benchmark index does not reflect the way the Fund portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, investment holdings, sectors, correlations, concentrations or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change over time.
Learn more about Tenac Asset Management: https://tenacam.com Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Timestamps:
00:46 The Impact of the Dollar on EMs Like Argentina 04:59 The Impact of the Fed and US Rated on EMs Experiencing Crisis 08:15 The Causes of Argentina's Inflation 15:17 The Mechanics of Money Printing 18:38 Macro Investing in Emerging Markets 28:30 Dollar Bonds vs Local Currency Bonds 34:55 Why Do Countries Issue Dollar Bonds? 40:05 The Case for EM Debt as an Asset Class 44:21 Balance of Payments 47:51 Economics vs Trading 52:58 Rebalancing the US vs the Rest of World 55:40 The Weakening US Dollar 57:54 Tariff Impacts on US GDP 01:01:36 One Year Dollar Outlook 01:03:25 Current Positioning 01:05:26 Current Market Anomalies 01:08:52 Is the US Becoming an Emerging Market 01:13:54 LATAM Tariff Winners 01:17:16 Opinions on Milei 01:21:18 Argentina Market Views

The Holy Grail of Macro | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon on Why Tariffs Won’t Cause A Recession And Why Buying Dips Only Works In An Expansion May 20, 2025

Show notes

Monetary Matters listeners can get a 25% discount to Prometheus Macro: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters

Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Macro, returns to Monetary Matters to share his in-depth macro process. He talks about how returns come from three factors: carry, mean reversion, and trend, and about how these three factors interact with other macro variables. Prometheus Macro is a trusted source for Jack and Monetary Matters listeners can get discounted access to Aahan’s research service by using the link below. Annual subscriptions can be purchased at 25% off the monthly subscription rate, and monthly subscribers can get a 10% discounted rate.

https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters

Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus

Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Monetary Matters on:

Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

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Is Private Credit a Systemic Risk? (A Regulator’s View) | Fabio Natalucci May 17, 2025

Show notes

Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Anderson Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Monetary Matters to discuss his work at the IMF on the potential risks to the global financial system that the growth of private credit may pose. They also discuss the affects that tariffs will have not just on the economy but the functioning of the financial system.
Learn more about the Anderson Institute: https://www.andersen.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:48 A Regulator's View of Private Credit 12:58 Private Credit Replacing the Banking System 15:46 New Types of Private Credit Investors 19:34 Private Credit Liquidity 24:11 Private Credit Leverage 29:00 Geographical Regulatory Risks 30:23 Is Private Credit Investment Grade? 36:01 Private Capital's Entry to the Insurance Business 41:49 Derivatives in Private Credit and Collateralized Fund Obligations 45:44 Economic and Financial Implications of Tariffs 01:01:53 The Risk of Foreigners Selling US Assets 01:09:53 Taiwan Life Insurance Markets 01:12:37 Does Trump Want a Weaker Dollar? 01:15:37 Lack of Consumption Ex-US 01:20:29 The Anderson Institute

The Fed and The Flu | David Kotok on How Pandemics Transform Economies and Markets May 16, 2025

Show notes

David Kotok, Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss insights from his new book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks.” Kotok cites data over millennia to show that pandemics typically cause natural real interest rates to decline, and productivity and inequality to rise. Kotok argues that we must prepare for the next pandemic and shares his view on the origin of the COVID virus. Part II of an interview recorded on April 4, 2025, with the first part having aired on April 7, 2025.

David Kotok’s book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks”:

https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic-ebook/dp/B0DCK1ZHJT

Paper, “Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26934/w26934.pdf

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

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Follow Monetary Matters on:

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Milton Berg: “Overwhelming” Evidence of Bullish Action In Stock Market May 14, 2025

Show notes

Milton Berg, pioneer in technical market data analysis, explains why he thinks early April was a turning point in the U.S. stock market and why the stock market is likely headed higher. Recorded May 13, 2025

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