Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Latest Episodes:

Phil Suttle on Coming High Inflation, Goods Recessions and Fed in Play May 07, 2021

Show notes

Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about:

COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s.
Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets.
High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023.
Fed will be in play sooner than expected.
Goods sector could see 'recession' in 2021 on supply constraints.
Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling.
EM local markets appear mispriced.
Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices.
UK in secular decline.
Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).

Wolfgang Münchau on Germany's Political Risks, Fiscal Stimulus and Euro Instability Apr 30, 2021

Show notes

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Wolfgang Münchau is co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. He was a Financial Times columnist from 2003 until 2020 and co-founder and editor-in-chief of Financial Times Deutschland. He is the author of several books, including Meltdown Years. In this podcast, we discuss:

The unpopularity of Germany's governing party, the CDU and its new leader Laschet.
Laschet's support for the coal industry.
The popularity of sister party CSU's leader Söder and his new economy focus.
The possibility of a CDU and CSU split.
Why are Greens so popular in Germany?
The fiscal implications of Greens in power.
Germany's constitutional constraints on fiscal policy.
Why far-right AfD has performed poorly recently.
The mismanagement of COVID and the political impact.
Does the EU Recovery Fund signal a common EU fiscal policy?
Will EU climate policy be successful?
Book that influenced Wolfgang: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Democracy (Mommsen), Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World (MacMillan).

Jeff Snider on Deflation, Central Bank Failure, and Understanding Money Apr 23, 2021

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.

Jeff is Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. He started his career in portfolio management and equity research before focusing on broad investment research since the 2000s. In this podcast, we discuss:

Do central banks believe in QE?
Why QE didn't generate inflation after GFC.
What is money and can central banks control it?
The importance of banks.
What caused the 1970s inflation.
The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system.
Why fiscal stimulus won't work.
The problem with market fragility and illiquidity.
Central banks care about equity markets.
What could generate inflation?
Book that influenced Jeff: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz)

Boris Vladimirov on Inflation Permanence, European Banks and BRICS Outlook Apr 16, 2021

Show notes

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss:

Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence.
Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending?
The best Europe trade.
Which yields matter for EM.
How important is China's deleveraging goals?
Where next for Chinese currency and bonds?
Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy.
Machine learning vs regressions.
Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky).
Current market views on bonds and equities.

Bobby Vedral on Taxing Big Tech, Europe's Edge, and Biden's China Policy Apr 09, 2021

Show notes

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Bobby is partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. He is author of the widely read newsletter, Macro Eagle. He has been the UK representative of the German Economic Council. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats.

In this podcast, we discuss:

Why the backlash against Big Tech will continue.
The unionization drive in the US.
A new global corporate tax accord.
The bullish case for Europe.
Germany in a post-Merkel world.
Biden's differences to Obama.
Biden's tougher stance on China than Trump.
Current market views on bonds and equities.

David Riley On US Debt Sustainability, the Reflation Trade and Corporate Defaults Apr 01, 2021

Show notes

David Riley is Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management – a USD70bn fixed income fund. Before Bluebay, David was global head of Fitch's Sovereign and Supranational Group, responsible for more than 130 ratings of the world's largest fixed-income issuers. Prior to Fitch, David was at HM Treasury where he advised on international economic and debt issues, including representing the UK at international debt restructuring negotiations at the Paris Club of Official Creditors. In this podcast, we discuss:

How sustainable are US and developed market debt?
Will the reflation trade continue for 2021?
Peak pessimism on Euro-area.
Dollar trend.
Will corporates start defaulting?
Impact of higher rates on credit.
Which EM markets look attractive?
The impact of ESG on the asset management industry.
Books that influenced David: Fooled By Randomness (Taleb), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Balance Sheet Recession (Koo).

Benn Eifert On Retail Options Boom, Over-Complex Derivatives, and Managing Tail Risk Mar 26, 2021

Show notes

Benn is the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York. Before that he was Head of Quantitative Research and Derivatives Trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. In this podcast, we discuss:

How derivative markets changed after the 2008 financial crisis.
The centrality of listed derivatives.
Why understanding supply-demand dynamics is important.
How complexity of strategies doesn't give you an edge.
Do short vol strategies work?
How to manage convexity and tail risk.
Derivatives to replace bonds as safe haven hedge?
What risks are investors focusing on since COVID?
Common mistakes by quants.
Book that influenced Benn: The House of Morgan (Chernow).

Marco Monroy On Carbon Taxes, ESG Investing and Maradona Mar 19, 2021

Show notes

Marco is Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group, which includes a private equity and green infrastructure fund, and a multinational firm specializing in integrated sustainability and climate change services that facilitate a transition towards a low carbon economy. Prior to that, he worked as an advisor on climate change issues to the Japanese government. In 2002, the World Economic Forum named Mr. Monroy one of the 100 Global Leaders of Tomorrow. In this podcast, we discuss:

Will climate change policies work?
The state-of-play in cap and trade and carbon taxes.
The importance of energy efficiency incentives.
Will the Biden administration make a difference?
What is climate finance?
Role of renewables and nuclear energy.
Landfill/carbon capture.
Investor flows into ESG and green bonds.
Books that influenced Marco: The Alchemist (Coelho), Outliers (Gladwell), Emotional Intelligence (Goleman), Man's Search For Meaning (Frankl).

Zac Prince on Earning Interest on Bitcoin, and the Future of Crypto Finance Mar 15, 2021

Show notes

Zac is the CEO and Founder of BlockFi – a leading wealth management firm for crypto investors. Prior to starting BlockFi, he led business development teams at Orchard Platform, a broker dealer and RIA in the online lending sector, and Zibby, an online consumer lender. In this podcast, we discuss:

The three use case of crypto – store of value, new commerce, and new payments system.
Stablecoins are underappreciated.
What is decentralized finance (defi).
How you can earn interest on crypto assets.
How to manage crypto lending books.
Breakdown of market players.
How to hedge your portfolio.
Regulatory trends in crypto finance.
Future of NFTs.
Books that influenced Zac: The Hard Thing About Hard Things (Horowitz) and Zero To One (Thiel). Books Zac has recently read: No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention (Hastings) and Shantaram (Roberts).

James Aitken On Stock Vigilantes, Yield Curve Control and Inflation Paths Mar 05, 2021

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.

James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a research boutique for institutional investors which he started in 2009. Before that, James worked for UBS, AIG, JPMorgan and Macqaurie. In this podcast, we discuss:

The real meaning of macro investing.
The market has right tails as well as left tails.
How to view recent rates market volatility.
Why would Fed do yield curve control?
Biden and the finance sector.
How to hedge your portfolio.
The importance of stock vigilantes.
The different channels of inflation.
The unexpected impact of US fiscal on wages.
Books that influenced James: The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (Doyle), Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes (Konnikova), Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Schwager), A Man for All Markets: Beating the Odds, from Las Vegas to Wall Street (Thorpe), An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets (Mackenzie)