Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Latest Episodes:

Peter Tertzakian on Energy Transitions, Electric Vehicles and Big Oil Feb 26, 2021

Show notes

Peter is Deputy Director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, a Managing Director of ARC Financial Corporation, an energy-focused private equity firm, and the creator of Energyphile, a multimedia project exploring the past, present and future of our energy circumstance. He is the author of three books, the bestselling A Thousand Barrels a Second, The End of Energy Obesity, and his latest The Investor Visit and Other Stories, which explores disruption, denial and transition in the energy business. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. In this podcast, we discuss:

The continuing reliance of the world on oil and gas.
Path of renewables.
Are latest clean energy expectations likely to be realised?
Why clean tech is being highly valued.
The impact of electric cars and batteries on metals.
How the oil industry will evolve with ESG and clean tech trends.
The role of carbon capture and big energy companies.
Financing challenges in energy sector.
Book that influenced Peter: Edison – His Life and Inventions.

Ciamac Moallemi On Quant Investing, Machine Learning and Trading Styles Feb 19, 2021

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.

Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss:

Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia.
Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text).
The pros and cons of using linear regressions.
The advantages of machine learning in non-linear and complex markets.
How to think about alternative and big data.
Portfolio construction and combining signals.
The importance of incorporating costs.
Understanding time horizons of different markets.
The trend to winner-takes-all with quant investors.
Why bitcoin and crypto technology is special.
Books that influenced Ciamac: The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie and Tibshirani), Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control: books 1 and 2 (Bertsekas), Active Portfolio Management (Grinold and Kahn).

You can follow Ciamac on Twitter here and his work here

Jay Pelosky on the Coming Boom, Mega-Tech Weakness and Big Government Feb 11, 2021

Show notes

Jay is the founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of asset allocation at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss:

The implications of a tri-polar world.
The biggest boom is underway..
Which asset classes will perform in this new regime.
The problem with a 60:40 portfolio.
How to play clean energy (ICLN, ECAR) and why old energy (XLE) may still perform.
Focusing on core themes: clean energy, innovation, fintech, and cyber.
The Biden revolution that everyone is missing.
Why rising rates won't hurt stocks.
Why ARK will outperform FAANGs (RSP >SPY).
How non-US and EM (EMQQ) will outperform US.
Why US-China risks are overstated.
Books that influenced Jay: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk and Capital Ideas (both Peter Bernstein), Age of Ambition (Osnos), Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor), The Unwinding (Packer), and The Great Risk Shift (Hacker)

Christian Hille on Exponential Growth, Avoiding Low Returns, and Errors in Risk Management Feb 05, 2021

Show notes

Christian Hille is the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell'sche Bank (FCB) in Germany. FCB was founded in 1774 and is one of the oldest private banks in Germany. Before FCB, Christian was Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions at DWS- Deutsche Bank's asset management arm, where he was responsible for EUR100bn in assets. In this podcast, we discuss:

Living in exponential times
The dramatic change in investment efficient frontiers
Why expected investment returns could be half compared to recent decades
How investors will respond to low growth
The best way to think about risk management
Taking advantage of extreme market moves
Using optionality in rates to hedge against risk scenarios
Where to get returns in a low interest world
Why gold and defensive stocks are attractive
How to access private equity
How the financial industry will evolve
Books that influence Christian: The Universe In You: Rumi , Mindset (Dweck), Principles (Dalio)

Jon Turek on the New Fed Put, the Brainard US Curve Steepener and the Dollar Jan 29, 2021

Show notes

Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss:

How to think about the Fed's new framework.
The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener!
Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time.
Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength.
How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade.
Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates.
Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated.
Are equities expensive?
Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work?
Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).

Barry Eichengreen on Dollar Dominance, Crypto Hype, and Reforming International Finance Jan 22, 2021

Show notes

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss:

Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic.
Have we reached peak political polarization?
Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers?
Could the Chinese yuan displace the US dollar as dominant currency?
The recipe for being the top reserve currency.
The status of the Euro.
Why crypto will not topple the dollar.
The two key reforms for the international financial system.
Books that influenced Barry: The World In Depression 1929-1939 (Kindleberger), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz), The Yellen class note (not available online)

Eli Dourado on the Key Tech Breakthroughs For the 2020s Jan 15, 2021

Show notes

Eli is an economist and regulatory hacker living in Washington, DC, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University. Before that he was head of global policy at Boon supersonic. In this podcast, we discuss:

Why we haven't a replacement for Concorde (yet)
How vaccine/mRNA breakthrough can help with HIV and cancers
Anti-ageing and blood plasma transfer
The problem of energy storage and renewables
Breakthroughs in geothermal energy
The future of transportation
SpaceX Starship could open a new frontier in space travel
Minitiarisation of chips and circuits and 'escaping' Moore's law
Why Ethereum has a brighter future than Bitcoin
A book that influenced Eli: Finite and Infinite Games (Carse)

12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners Jan 08, 2021

Show notes

Happy new year and welcome to our first podcast of 2021. In this episode, we try something different and have curated the best investment ideas from our listeners. They're a smart bunch so well worth listening to. Here are the ideas discussed:

Buying clean energy (Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ET [PBW]) – Rohan Yelvigi (NY)
Buying Japan stocks (iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ]) – Peter Repetto (NY)
Buying healthcare and financial sector equity volatility – Stephen Howard (HK)
Position for equity correction – Lorenzo Lorenzi (Milan)
Low inflation (selling inflation breakevens) – Dominique Dwor-Frecaut (Los Angeles)
Selling US 20y rates – SN Vaidya (London)
Buying pound sterling (GBP/USD) – Eric Zijdenbos (London)
Buying GBP/USD upside options – Arun Sundaram (London)
Buying FX volatility – Karl Massey (London)
Buying Swedish Krona (selling EUR/SEK) – Ken Dickson (Edinburgh)
Buying Chilean equities (iShares MSCI Chile ETF [ECH]) – Alex Schober (NY)
Buying Turkey (FX and equities) – Philipp Birkan (Vienna)

Michael Auerbach On Launching A Cannabis SPAC With Jay-Z Dec 22, 2020

Show notes

Michael Auerbach is the Founder of Subversive Capital, which is dedicated to investing in radical companies. He sits on the Board of Directors of Tilray, Inc. – the first Nasdaq-listed global cannabis company – and holds several directorships with companies that Subversive invests in. He also serves as a Senior Vice President at Albright Stonebridge Group, the global consulting firm chaired by former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. In this podcast, we discuss:

Launching a SPAC (SBVCF) with Jay-Z for the cannabis sector
The bullish case for the California cannabis market
Why Canada's legalization of cannabis has still seen illicit trade increase
The financing challenge for cannabis companies
Why brands are where the value is
How the Biden administration will accelerate legalisation
The political and cultural reasons for banning cannabis over alcohol
The Portugal case of decriminalisation
Books that influenced Michael: Far From the Tree (Solomon), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan), Sapiens (Harari), History of Sexuality (Foucault), Glas (Derrida), King Leopold's Ghost (Hochschild), Malcolm X, Say Nothing (Keefe)

Ashley Lenihan On The Politics Of Cross-Border M&A, CFIUS And Sensitive Sectors Dec 18, 2020

Show notes

Dr Ashley Lenihan is a leading expert on the relationship between foreign direct investment and national security and is the author of 'Balancing Power without Weapons: State Intervention into Cross-Border M&A'. She is the Head of Policy and Engagement at the British Academy of Management (BAM), a visiting Fellow at the London School of Economic's Centre for International Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In the podcast, we discuss:

Why countries block foreign investment/M&A deals
Types of measures used to block or mitigate deals
Evolution of US policy on foreign investment (CFIUS, FIRMA)
Examples of US vetoes
Will Biden change CFIUS approach?
How data is new front for regulating foreign investment
The unusually broad scope of new UK regulation
Advice to companies who engage in cross-border M&A
Books that influenced Ashley: Theory of International Politics (Waltz), National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Hirschman), Power & Interdependence (Keohane and Nye) and Isolationism (Kupchan)