Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

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**Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez**

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

Latest Episodes:

Roshun Patel on Bitcoin, Crypto Lending and Futures Trading Jul 16, 2021

Show notes

Cross-exchange arbitrage in crypto
How lending works in bitcoin and crypto
Futures and interest rates on bitcoin
Dynamics of the May bitcoin correction
Divergence between US and China trading
On-chain features and smart contracts
Yield farming
Issues around Tether
Types of investors in crypto
Call over-writing strategies
Books that influenced Roshun: The Beginning of Infinity (Deutsch), The Selfish Gene (Dawkins), Sapiens (Harari), The Sovereign Individual (Davidson), The Energy World Is Flat (Lacalle and Parrila), and The Three-Body Problem (Liu)

Charley Ellis on Active Investors Underperformance, Index Investing and Character Jul 09, 2021

Show notes

Dr. Charles D. Ellis is the founder and former managing partner of Greenwich Associates, an international consultancy where he advised large institutional investors, foundations, and government organizations in more than 130 financial markets across the globe. He taught investment management courses at the Yale School of Management and at Harvard Business School. He sat on the Board of Directors of The Vanguard Group. In addition, Charley was a successor trustee of Yale University, where he chaired the university's investment committee with David Swensen. He is the author of a number of books including Winning the Loser's Game, which has recently come out in its 8th edition. In the podcast, we talk about:

Why it has become harder for investors to outperform the market
The rise of highly professional investors
The difficulty of finding good investment managers
The poor returns of investment managers
The importance of time in assessing performance
Market timing versus factor investing
The impact of monetary policy on markets
The problem with bond investing
Outlook for equity returns
Understanding your total portfolio
Think over long time horizons and importance of character
Benefit from intelligence of others through index investing
Books/articles that influenced Charley: Warren Buffet's annual letters, The Theory of Investment Value (John Burr Williams), Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings (Philip Fisher), Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd), Inside the Yield Book (Martin Leibowitz), Pioneering Portfolio Management (David Swensen)

Christian Angermayer on Exponential Growth, Revolutionising Healthcare and Overcoming Fear Jul 02, 2021

Show notes

Christian Angermayer is an entrepreneur and investor and the founder of Apeiron Investment Group, his family office and merchant banking business. Apeiron focuses on Financial Services (especially fintech and crypto assets), Technology, Life Sciences, Media & Entertainment and Real Estate & Prop-Tech. In the podcast, we talk about:

What has helped Christian become a successful investor and entrepreneur
The positive history of psychedelics
The medical potential for psychedelics in mental health
Classifying ageing as a disease
Breakthroughs in longevity medicine
Why healthcare systems are so costly
How money printing is reshaping the economy
The transition from linear growth to exponential growth
The US-China rivalry
The future of crypto currencies
What to know about space tech
Why invest in movies
Books mentioned on podcast: The Immortality Key (Muraresku), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan)
Book that influenced Christian: Think and Grow Rich! (Hill), The Law of Attraction (Hicks)

Former Deutsche Bank Chair/CEO Josef Ackermann On Running a Bank and the Future of Banking Jun 25, 2021

Show notes

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Josef Ackermann is the former chairman of the management board and the group executive committee at Deutsche Bank. Ackermann joined Deutsche Bank's board of managing directors in 1996, where he was responsible for the investment banking division. He is also former chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus. Ackermann studied economics and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen, where he earned his doctorate. In the podcast, we talk about:

Managing Deutsche Bank around the global financial crisis
Banker compensation and bonuses
Why European banks have underperformed US banks
The need for European bank consolidation
How will fintech disrupt banking
The importance of capital markets in Europe
The future of asset management
Passive vs active investment.
How Western financials can benefit from China
Book that influenced Joe: Faustv (Goethe), In Search Of Excellence (Peters), Built To Last (Collins), The Effective Executive (Drucker), The One Minute Manager (Blanchard)

John Butler on Stagflation, Gold and Bitcoin Jun 18, 2021

Show notes

John Butler has 25 years' experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world's largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book 'The Golden Revolution'. In the podcast, we talk about:

Why stagflation is here
The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans
The moral hazard of Fed policy
Why was inflation low after the global financial crisis?
The absence of excess capacity and parallels to 1970s
How to play a stagflation theme
Is there a commodity supercycle?
The future path of gold
Why bitcoin won't replace the dollar (or gold)
The importance of risk management
Book that influenced John: Money and Magic (Binswanger)

Charles Goodhart on Money Printing, Inflation and Ageing Jun 11, 2021

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.

Charles Goodhart CBE is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, having previously been its Deputy Director. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for seventeen years including as Chief Adviser and later In 1997 as independent members of the Bank of England's new Monetary Policy Committee until May 2000. He is the developer of Goodhart's law, an economic law named after him. He has written numerous books including the graduate monetary textbook, 'Money, Information and Uncertainty', 'The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis' (2009) and most recently 'The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival' (2020). In the podcast, we talk about:

Importance of understanding money demand and the money multiplier
Should central banks target monetary aggregates and house prices?
The problem with the Fed's new inflation targeting objectives.
Understanding China's integration to the global economy
The challenges of an ageing population
Factors that depressed inflation are now turning
Why didn't ageing Japan see inflation
Why demographics in the US are inflationary
Can India and Africa provide the necessary demographic boost to offset DM ageing?
Can Tech replace the missing working age population?
How to fix the global debt problem
Books that influenced Charles: A Monetary History of the United States (Friedman, Schwartz), Golden Fetters (Eichengreen), the works of Dennis Robertson, James Tobin, Charles Kindleberger, and Robert Eisler

Professor Adrian Williams on Everything You Wanted to Know About Sleep Jun 04, 2021

Show notes

Dr. Adrian Williams is the UK's first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after a lectureship at The Cardiothoracic Institute, Brompton Hospital in 1975 took up an appointment at Harvard, Boston, USA, followed by an invitation to University of California (UCLA) in 1977. In 1985 Professor Williams became tenured Professor of Medicine at UCLA and co-Director of the UCLA Sleep Laboratory. In 1994 he returned to London where he developed the Sleep Centre at Guy's and St. Thomas' now the most active in the UK, and continues in the full-time practice of Sleep Medicine. In addition, Professor Williams holds the UK's first Chair in Sleep Medicine at Kings College, London, UK. In the podcast, we talk about:

Why we sleep
Impact of lack of sleep on decision-making
Types of sleep non-REM and REM
How much should we sleep?
Does catch-up sleep on the weekend help?
What triggers sleep
Sleep apnea and snoring
Sleep and temperature
Managing jet lag
Melatonin, sleeping pills, caffeine and alcohol
Tips for better sleep
Books that influenced Adrian: Sleep and Wakefulness (Kleitman, 1939), The Promise Of Sleep (Dement), Genius: Richard Feynman and Modern Physics (Gleick), Surely You're Joking Mr Feynman (Feynman), The Code Breaker (Isaacson), The Double Helix (Watson)

Former UK Chancellor Sajid Javid On Inflation, Climate Change and Post-Brexit Britain May 28, 2021

Show notes

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Sajid is currently the Conservative Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove. He has held two of the four 'Great Offices Of State' in the UK government: Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary. He was first elected to Parliament in 2010. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. At Deutsche Bank, he helped build their emerging market businesses. Sajid was born in Rochdale (Manchester) and was raised in Bristol. He read Economic and Politics at Exeter University. In the podcast, we talk about:

How has the UK handled the pandemic so far?
The UK fiscal outlook – spending focuses and taxes
How pandemic shocks differ from wars
Why inflation could pick up
The importance of climate change and the UK track record
Results of the UK's Integrated Review and centrality of climate change
Why biodiversity also matters
Will UK parliament's unanimous support for climate change policy continue?
UK's global role in a post-Brexit world
New measures to attract international talent to UK
Possible future global alliances

Themos Fiotakis on Mispriced US Stimulus, Inflation Spikes and Neglected EM May 21, 2021

Show notes

Themos is the Head of Research at the macro hedge fund, Glen Point Capital. His previous roles included being Head of Fundamental Strategy at UBS and Head of EM FX Strategy at Goldman Sachs. In the podcast, we talk about:

How investors are not understanding the impact of the US stimulus
Will price increases be transitory?
How healthy is the US labour market?
Important shifts in China policy
How to play the Euro-area recovery
Investors are missing key EM trends
Favourite EM markets
Books that influenced Themos: Economics in Perspective (Galbraith) and A Theory of Justice (Rawls)

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on US Labour Supply, Inflation and Timing the Bond Sell-Off May 14, 2021

Show notes

Dominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she's so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she's worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about:

The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021
The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID
Can inflation move higher?
How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy
The impact of more active fiscal policy on growth and inflation
Outlook on Germany and China
Timing the next big US bond sell-off
Books that influenced Dominique: Radical Uncertainty (King, Kay), The Social Conquest of Earth (Wilson)

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