Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

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Anas Alhajji On the Energy Outlook, Climate Change and Arctic Oil Oct 01, 2021

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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.

Dr. Anas Alhajji is a leading energy markets expert, and advises governments, companies, and financial institutions on energy markets. He focuses on oil and gas market outlook, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on the supply and demand of energy. He is the Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, and was previously the Chief Economist of NGP Energy Capital Management. He is also a contributing editor for top industry publication: World Oil. Before moving to industry, Anas taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado School of Mines and Ohio Northern University. In this podcast we discuss:

False ideas around what drives oil prices
What supply and demand drivers matter
Why OPEC doesn't matter
Why peak oil is wrong
Why bearish oil demand forecasts on ESG/climate change are wrong
How governments and companies are not acting on carbon neutrality
How Iran oil supply has continued despite sanctions
Oil underinvestment in oil producing nations
Saudi, US and Russian oil supply outlook
The Arctic oil play
China's dominance in oil markets
The rise of private generators
Book that Anas rates: Kuwait in the Time of British Empire (Khajah)

Richard Muirhead On VC Investing, Picking Winners and Web 3.0 Sep 24, 2021

Show notes

Richard is a co-founder and Managing Partner at Fabric Ventures – a VC fund adapting the early, technical, and patient approach of venture capital to investing in Web 3.0 and decentralised data networks. Fabric invested in the likes of Polkadot, Ocean Protocol, Orchid, Blockstack, zeppelin_os, and Keep, among others. Richard combines a pedigree in open source, developer-oriented tools, and early-stage venture investing with blockchain focus since 2013, and has invested in Pantera Venture Fund, Bitstamp, Bitrise, Tray.io, Transferwise, and Citymapper. Richard was previously a 3x software entrepreneur, building/ scaling Automic (CA), Tideway (BMC), and Orchestream (Oracle) – reaching a cumulative market cap of billions. In this podcast we discuss:

Starting companies versus investing
What makes start-ups and their founders successful
What returns should one expect in VC
What is the Open Economy and Web 3.0
Centralisation vs decentralisation
Books that influenced Richard: Strangers in a Strange Land (Heinlein), Future History (Heinlein), Atlas Shrugged (Rand), and The Third Chimpanzee (Diamond)

David Dredge On Defining Risk, Profiting from Extreme Moves, and Convexity Sep 17, 2021

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David has over 30 years' experience of managing risk across global markets. David is the CIO of Singapore-based Convex strategies - which focuses on risk management including protecting against dislocations in asset markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, he served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust and Bank of America. David holds an MBA from University of California, Berkeley. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). In this podcast we discuss:

The confusion between measuring risk and managing risk
The problem with value-at-risk and defining risk
What is convexity
Why buying options is not 'expensive'
Importance of compound returns over arithmetic returns
How to think about ergodicity
Why allocation to bonds don't provide the right downside protection
Getting your defense right, insurance and long vol strategies
The role of central banks in shifting equity-bond correlations
The importance of time in convexity strategies
The growing fragility in the financial system
Managing correlation risk
Books that influenced David: How Nature Works (Bak), The Misbehaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Incerto Collection (Taleb), The Road to Serfdom (Hayek), Ubiquity (Buchanan), Radical Uncertainty (King)

Todd Edgar On Managing Money, China and Advice from Paul Tudor Jones Sep 10, 2021

Show notes

Todd Edgar has over 28 years' experience in financial markets. He has spent the last 2 years as CIO of Atreaus Family, a family office, allocating capital to equities, rates, commodities, FX, Crypto and real estate. Prior to that, he spent 9 years as Founder of Atreaus Capital, a global macro hedge fund with a peak AUM of over $3bn. He also served as Global Head of Macro Proprietary at Barclays Capital and before that as Global Head of the Commodities and FX Proprietary Trading at JPMorgan. Todd has also been a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corp. He graduated from the University of New South Wales, Sydney, currently lives on Long Island, NY. In this podcast we discuss:

Challenges of running a hedge fund
How have markets changed since the global financial crisis (2008)
Approach to investing
Reasons for being long China bonds
PBoC the new Bundesbank
Are commodities in a new supercycle?
How to think about inflation
Views on crypto markets
How to avoid losses impacting your future performance
Advice from Paul Tudor Jones
Book that influenced Todd: Market Wizards (Schwager) and Trading in the Zone (Douglas)

David Woo On Persistence Of COVID, Stagflation, and Political Taboos Sep 03, 2021

Show notes

David is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. In that role, he was responsible for the bank's views and forecasts for developed and emerging sovereign bond yields and exchange rates. He was earlier at Barclays Capital, Citigroup and the IMF. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss:

Why news media has become more politicised
The impact of globalization on inequality
What explains countries with high COVID cases
Why Trump was right on vaccine vs COVID elimination
COVID to remain a factor in coming years
Return to stagflation
Mnuchin under-rated as Treasury Secretary, Yellen over-rated
Supply-side policies/inequality under Trump
The fundamental shifts in US-China relations
China tech policy is what Biden wishes he could do
Book that influenced David: Predictioneer (de Mesquita)

Nikhil Shamapant On Ethereum to $150,000, Triple Halving and NFTs Aug 27, 2021

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Nikhil recently published an influential investment report titled 'Ethereum, The Triple Halving', and has been researching cryptocurrencies and the Ethereum ecosystem since 2020. Outside of markets, Nikhil is an incoming medical resident at University of Colorado internal medicine. Nikhil completed his undergraduate degree at Rice University where he studied Philosophy and Cognitive Science. He then completed his medical school at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. In this podcast we discuss:

Key differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum
Consensus algorithms: proof-of-work vs proof-of stake
The selling pressure of miners on Bitcoin
The triple halving for Ethereum
Impact of EIP1559 and halving
Base case price target for Ethereum of $30,000-$50,000
Dynamics of an overshoot to $150,000
The growth of staking derivatives
Can Cardano and Solana dislodge Ethereum
Future of NFT and the metaverse
Book that influenced Nikhil: Doing Good Better (MacAskill)

Saeed Amen On Trading Models, Alternative Data And Python [Replay] Aug 20, 2021

Show notes

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of "Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today" and is the coauthor of "The Book of Alternative Data", which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry 2. How to design good trading models 3. Avoiding data mining 4. Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded 5. Why trend-following models have underperformed 6. Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows 7. Importance of reducing transaction costs 8. Types of alternative data 9. How to use news data 10. The non-technical challenges of using alternative data 11. Why Python is an important complement to Excel

Alberto Gallo on China Risks, Corporate Inequality and Accelerated History Aug 06, 2021

Show notes

Alberto is Head of Global Credit strategies and Portfolio Manager of the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities fund, a global strategy investing in bonds, credit and equities. Prior to Algebris, Alberto was Managing Director and Head of Global Macro Credit Research at RBS (2011-2016). His team was top ranked in Institutional Investor's All-Europe Fixed Income survey for Investment Grade, High Yield Research and Fixed Income Strategy, for four years running. Previously, Alberto was a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York (2007-2011) and previously he was at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch in London (2004-2007), where he co-authored some of the early research on the credit derivatives market.In this podcast we discuss:

The challenge to neo-liberal capitalism
Biden's push for infrastructure and future trade policy
China's paradox markets vs centralisation
COVID accelerated history
Corporate inequality
The effects of QE infinity
The barbell approach to investing in a low yield world
Favoured sectors
Europe vs US equity allocations
Why EM risks are high
Inflation persistence
Lessons learned as an investor

Books that influenced Alberto: In Defence of Open Society (Soros), The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Popper), The Myth of Capitalism (Tepper), The Hidden Wealth of Nations (Zucman et al), Geopolitical Alpha (Papic), Homo Deus (Harari) and Brave New World (Huxley)

Anna Raytcheva on Trading Regime Changes, Reflation and Crypto Jul 30, 2021

Show notes

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Anna founded Sonya Capital Management in December 2016. Prior to that, Anna spent over twenty years at Citigroup, where she oversaw a multi-billion dollar balance sheet and large teams of traders as the Head of the Strategic Trading Desk, Co-Head of Risk Treasury and Head of the Agency MBS trading desk. Anna traded through eight central bank tightening and easing cycles and a few financial crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial crisis. When she left Citigroup, the WSJ featured her as 'Citigroup's last proprietary trader'. She graduated with honours from Princeton University with a degree in Mathematics. In this podcast we discuss:

Difference between trading on the sell-side versus at own fund
Framework used to invest in markets
How to use flow information to validate views
The value of machine learning
How to identify market regime changes
The impact of risk transfers on market volatility
How bubbles can be rational
The difference between high-frequency trading and macro
Views on the current reflation theme
Two major risks: US tax changes and China decoupling
Market to watch - yen
Views on crypto markets
Books that influenced Anna: The Second Machine Age (Brynjolfsson, Mcafee), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)

Roger Garside On China Fragility, Coup Risks, and US Policy Jul 23, 2021

Show notes

Roger is a former diplomat, development banker, and capital market development advisor, who twice served in the British Embassy in Beijing, and is the author of the highly acclaimed Coming Alive: China After Mao, which explained how Deng Xiaoping won the struggle to succeed Chairman Mao Zedong and what he would do with his power. He has recently published a provocative new book China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom. In the podcast, we talk about:

Why China is outwardly strong and inwardly weak
The debt and efficiency problems of the state sector
The role of corruption
The centralisation of power around President Xi
How a top-down coup could occur in China
The role of the US in forcing regime change
How COVID has impacted the Chinese political structure
Why China is more fragile today than in the past
Books that influenced Roger: The Bible and Capitalism and Freedom (Friedman)

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