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Corn Market WINNING Streak! What's the Deal?? May 23, 2025

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0:00 Corn Winning Streak
5:22 US Weather / Drought
10:01 SRE Rumors
11:26 Tax Bill and Bonds
14:59 Export Sales
19:30 India Wheat
🌽 Corn Climbs Again! + Biofuel Buzz & Drought Data 🔥
📈 The CBOT corn market kept up the momentum Thursday! July25 corn closed higher for the 4th straight session, settling at $4.63/bu, thanks to technical support. But... deferred months slipped on a strong US dollar and weaker oil. Rain is on the way for the Corn Belt 🌧️—a good sign for crop development! 🌎 The International Grains Council also raised its 25/26 global corn production forecast by 3 MMT to 1.3B tons.
🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor: Mixed Bag
The latest drought monitor shows:
🌽 Corn in drought: 20%
🌱 Soybeans: 17%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 23%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 38%
🐄 Cattle: 29%
Big gains in Nebraska & the Dakotas due to massive rainfall, but worsening in Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota.
🛢️ Soybean Oil Swings on Biofuel Rumors!
A wild day for soybean oil! 🌀 Rumors of Trump’s EPA approving backlogged Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) spooked the market — until the EPA denied it. Was someone trying to manipulate RIN prices? 🤔
🏛️ Trump's Domestic Package Passes House
The House passed Trump's multi-trillion dollar bill (215-214)—now it heads to the Senate 🚨. Key items for agriculture and energy:
🌱 45Z extended through 2031
🌎 Foreign feedstocks banned
🛬 Still no language on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
🌐 Export Sales Snapshot
🌽 Corn: 1.2mmt — Japan 🇯🇵 leads
🌱 Soybeans: 308kmt — Mexico 🇲🇽 leads
🌾 Wheat: -13kmt — Colombia 🇨🇴 leads
🇮🇳 India Eyes Record Wheat Crop
India could harvest a record 117mmt wheat crop! Favorable weather + strong seeds = BIG yields 🌾. Flour millers are pressuring for export bans to be lifted as stockpiles grow 📦.
#CornMarket #GrainPrices #DroughtUpdate #BiofuelNews #USDA #TrumpBill #AgPolicy #SoybeanOil #ExportSales #IndiaWheat #FarmEconomy #5MinuteFriday 🌽📊💼

What Does the Bond Selloff Have to do with Corn Prices?? May 22, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Bond Selloff
1:46 Tax Bill Concerns
5:44 Corn and Bonds
9:14 Extended Commodity Trading Hours?
11:20 Ethanol Production
12:21 Argentina Update
13:56 Bitcoin ATH
🔹 📉 Bond Market Sell-Off Intensifies
Yields are surging as debt concerns mount. The 30-year hits 5.089%—a rare level not seen since 2023—and the 10-year busts through 4.5%. Weak auctions and global pressure (hello, Japan 🇯🇵) are shaking confidence in US debt. What’s it mean for YOU? 📊
🔹 🇺🇸 Trump’s Policy Package Stirs the House
A multitrillion-dollar bill with tax cuts, spending hikes, and big changes to energy, immigration, and Medicaid. But it’s facing resistance from both sides of the GOP aisle.
🔹 🌾 Corn Futures Catch a Bid
Corn prices move higher on short-covering, slow farmer sales, and a softer dollar. Wheat strength provides a boost.
🔹 🕒 24/7 Futures Trading? NGFA Says No!
The CFTC is considering round-the-clock trading for grains and livestock. The NGFA pushes back hard. Will extended hours help or hurt the market? ⏰
🔹 🚜 US Ethanol Output Rises
Production climbs 4.3% on the week—but margins are softening. Stocks tick lower.
🔹 🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Weather Update
Rainfall finally lets up after major delays in the soybean harvest. Dry weather returns, helping ease pressure on the crop forecast. 🌤️
🔹 🪙 Bitcoin Hits Record High
Yes, again. BTC tops $109K on hopes for stablecoin legislation and a Trump-fueled regulatory shift. Options traders are betting BIG.
💬 Got thoughts on 24/7 grain trading? Drop a comment and join the conversation!
👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe to stay ahead of the markets each week.

Direct Farm Payments: BILLIONS Already Paid, What's Missing?? May 21, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Direct Payment Update
4:30 Wheat Rally
6:13 Russia Wheat Weather
7:24 Corn Belt Rains
9:53 China Soybean Imports
11:35 China Buys More Gold
🌾 USDA Sends Billions to Farmers + Wheat Rally & China Trade Moves! 💵🌍
🚨 Big USDA Payments Rolling Out!
As of Monday, $7.6B in ECAP payments have been distributed to help farmers facing rising costs and lower crop prices. Corn growers have received $3.1B, soybeans $2B, and wheat $1B. Iowa leads the pack with nearly $700M! Over 500,000 farmers have already applied. 📝💰 Sign-up is open through August 15 — don’t miss it! 👇
🌾 Wheat Prices Surge
Chicago wheat futures jumped 📈 to their highest level since April, fueled by a weaker US dollar, falling US crop ratings, and weather concerns in China where temps could soar past 108°F! 🥵💨
🇷🇺 Russia Declares Grain Emergency
The Rostov region — Russia’s top grain producer — is under a state of emergency due to frost and expected drought. It's the third major region this season facing serious challenges. Crop damage may remain limited… but risk looms. ⚠️🌡️
🌧️ Corn Belt Soaked Again
Over 1.5" of rain fell across big chunks of the Midwest over the past 72 hours. More rain is expected in Missouri, Illinois, and across the Belt in the coming 2 weeks. 🌽☔️
🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports Plunge
China’s soybean imports from Brazil dropped 22% in April 📉 due to harvest and customs delays. US shipments also fell 44%. April imports were the lowest since 2015. Tariff tensions may be playing a role. 🛑🫘
🥇 Chinese Gold Demand Surges
Gold imports to China soared 73% last month despite record prices nearing $3,500/oz. The PBOC loosened restrictions to meet rising demand, driven by trade tension fears and investor hedging. 💹🔐
💬 Drop a comment with your market thoughts & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for the latest ag and market updates!
#FarmingNews #Wheat #Soybeans #Corn #Gold #US

Planting is Ahead of Schedule - Western Corn Belt to Remain Dry?? May 20, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US Weather Update
2:25 US Crop Progress
6:51 Argentina Flooding
10:09 China is Chirping
11:21 Corn Shipments are Strong
13:07 Meal Flash Sale

🌽 Storms, Planting Progress & Global Trade Tensions! 🌧️📈🌎
Radar is lit up across the 🌽 Corn Belt this morning! A large storm system is bringing rain to MN, IA, WI, IL, and IN, with more moisture expected over the next 16 days 🌧️🌀. Recent rainfall has favored parts of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and the mid-South.
🌱 Planting Progress 🚜
Corn and soybean planting is flying ahead of the five-year average! Corn is 78% planted, while soybeans are 66% complete—the second-fastest pace in 10 years! 🏃‍♂️💨 Some states are nearly done, while others still lag behind.
🌾 Wheat Ratings & Spring Progress 🌼
Winter wheat ratings slipped to 52% good-excellent—lower than expected but still better than last year. Spring wheat planting is surging ahead at 82%, beating both last week's and average pace! 📈
🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Concerns 🌧️
Heavy rains are threatening soybean yields in Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soybean meal and oil. With harvest delays and 1.8 million acres still in the field, losses could mount fast. So far, markets haven’t blinked 👀.
🇨🇳 China-US Trade Clash 💥
Tensions rise again: China accuses the US of derailing trade talks over AI chip sanctions tied to Huawei. The warning could undercut recent progress made in Switzerland. 🤖🚫🇺🇸
🚢 Weekly Exports Update 📦
📦 Corn: 1.7mmt shipped, up big from last week
📦 Soybeans: Missed expectations
📦 Wheat: Strong performance, +85% YoY!
Plus, a flash sale of 145,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines makes headlines. 📢
🔔 Subscribe for daily insights & drop a comment with your planting progress or market thoughts! Let’s talk grain! 🌽📊🗣️

"Sell America" Trade is Back After Credit Downgrade - Grain Implications? May 19, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US Downgrade
2:53 Corn Price Action
4:42 US Weather
7:48 Argentina Flooding
9:14 The Funds
11:04 India and Ethanol
📉 US Credit Downgrade Sparks Market Jitters 🇺🇸💥
Moody's has officially downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, stripping the nation of its final triple-A from any major agency. The move was driven by rising deficits, ballooning interest costs, and a lack of fiscal discipline. While not expected to spark immediate chaos, the downgrade could slowly increase borrowing costs.
💬 Meanwhile, the "Sell America" trade is back:
📉 Stocks ⬇️
📉 Bonds ⬇️ (rates ⬆️)
💵 Dollar ⬇️
🌎 Only 11 countries now hold a triple-A rating from Moody’s.
🌽 Corn Market Moves
Corn futures slid 5¢ on Friday, with good weather and fast planting keeping prices under pressure. Over 60% of US corn is in the ground, ahead of average. But exports are strong—second best in 10 years!
🌦️ Radar Watch
Storms are lighting up the Corn Belt! 🌩️ Rainfall expected in:
• ND, SD, IA, MO
• Heaviest rain: southern IA, northern MO, southern IL & IN, western KY
🌧️ Moisture could boost crop development in dry spots.
🇦🇷 Argentina Flooding
Too much of a good thing? Parts of Buenos Aires saw 6–10 inches of rain! 🌊 Soy harvest delays continue, and sales have dropped to decade-lows.
• Soybean meal ⬇️
• Soybean oil ⬆️ (after recent plunge)
📊 Fund Positioning
• Corn: Biggest short since Oct '24
• SRW Wheat: Most short since Nov '23
• Soybeans: Funds were light buyers last week
🌍 US-India Ethanol Talks
The US wants India to open its market to fuel-grade ethanol. But India’s pushing domestic production and is cautious of foreign suppliers flooding the market. 🇮🇳⛽
👉 Subscribe for daily ag + macro updates! Drop your thoughts in the comments 💬
#GrainMarkets #USCreditDowngrade #Corn #Soybeans #Moody's #Argentina #Ethanol #Commodities #AgNews 🌾💰📉

Soybean Oil Drops 9% on EPA Rumors + Ozempic and Beef Demand May 16, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Soybean Oil Crash
2:16 US Weather / Drought
6:39 Meat Demand and Ozempic
9:44 NOPA Crush Report
12:00 Export Sales
15:10 Kansas Wheat Tour
16:53 CONAB Estimates
19:25 SpaceX and Farming
🌱 Big Moves in Biofuels, Drought, and Meat Demand! 🚜🔥
🛢️ EPA Biofuel Blend Drama
The EPA just sent a new rule to the White House. 👀 Rumors suggest 2026 diesel blending targets may come in way below industry hopes — and soybean oil futures reacted hard, falling limit down. 📉
🌾 USDA Drought Monitor Update
Drought is creeping across key crop states. 😬
Corn: 22% 🌽 | Soybeans: 17% 🌱 | Winter Wheat: 23% 🌾
🍗 Ozempic Boosting Meat Demand?
Weight-loss meds like Ozempic 💉 are driving higher chicken and beef consumption, says JBS — folks on GLP-1s want more protein! 🐔🥩
🧼 NOPA Crush Report
April soybean crush dipped from March but still hit a record for the month 📊. Soybean oil stocks rose slightly but remain the lowest for April since 2015.
🌍 Strong US Corn Exports
Corn export sales beat expectations! 🌽💪
Soybeans and wheat? A bit more sluggish 🐢📉
🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Surprise
Highest projected yield since 2021! Timely spring rains helped wheat scouts forecast 53 bpa vs the usual 44.3. USDA's still a bit more conservative — but things are looking up! ☁️➡️🌧️
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook Raised
Conab raised Brazil’s corn and soybean forecasts 🌽🇧🇷 Favorable rains, big second corn crop, and rising ethanol demand are all supporting the boom. 📈
🚀 Starlink x CNH = Farming Future
Precision ag just got a boost! CNH teams up with SpaceX to bring Starlink satellite internet to the most remote fields. 🌐🛰️
Like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated with real ag news that matters 👇
#Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #Biofuels #Starlink #Ozempic #Farmers #AgNews #Commodities 🌽📈🛰️

Soybean Oil Drops 6%, Drags Soybeans Lower, Why?? May 15, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Soybean Rally
1:18 EPA and Bean Oil Selloff
3:36 Kansas Wheat Tour
6:28 Russia Wheat Update
8:14 Tyson CEO and Cattle
11:22 Ethanol Production
🌱 Soybeans Rally Again!
Soybean futures climbed for the fifth straight day on Wednesday! 📈 The July25 contract edged up near $10.78/bu, fueled by:
🔹 A 90-day tariff truce between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳
🔹 A House proposal to extend the 45Z tax credit
🔹 Hopes for renewed Phase One-style trade with China
But... 🌧️ storm clouds rolled in Thursday morning with lower prices amid EPA uncertainty and crashing crude. Full story below 👇
⚙️ EPA & Renewable Fuel Standard
EPA Chief Lee Zeldin 🏛️ says new RVOs are coming soon!
🔸 Final rule expected in months
🔸 Public comment period ahead
🔸 Push for higher volume levels already underway
Still, soybean oil futures are diving this morning 💥, possibly due to RVO delays and weak crude oil prices.
🌾 Wheat Tour Surprises
Kansas wheat tour is off to a strong start! 🌾
📍 Northern KS: 50.5 bpa (above 5-yr avg)
📍 SW Kansas: 53.3 bpa 😲
USDA now rates 48% of Kansas wheat as good to excellent vs. 31% on average. But issues like drought and wheat streak mosaic still linger.
❄️ Russian Crop Weather Update
Minimal damage from May frosts ❄️
📉 Only 247K acres affected (10% of last year’s loss)
But dry soils now pose the biggest risk. 🌵
🥩 Cattle Market Tension
Tyson says herd rebuilding has started. 🐄
…but challenges remain:
⚠️ Drought
⚠️ High prices
⚠️ Limited capital
Tyson reported a $149M beef loss last week. Live Cattle futures just posted a downside key reversal 📉
🚜 Ethanol Production Slips
🔻 Weekly output: 1 million bpd (down 2.6% WoW)
📈 Stocks: 25.45 million barrels (still high historically)
Margins are improving in the eastern Corn Belt 💵 — see full ethanol charts below!
📊 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay ahead of the grain game! 🌽📈

Western Corn Belt Rain Expected: Bearish Grain Prices?? May 14, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US Weather
3:42 Biofuel and Tax Bill
5:41 Iowa Eminent Domain
8:54 US Loses Soy Market Share
10:54 China Soybean Import Forecast
12:13 Inflation Update
🌽☔ Widespread Rain in the Corn Belt + Biofuels Shakeup, China Trade Jitters & Inflation Update! 📉🛢️🌍
🌧️ Weather Watch:
A major rain event is unfolding across the US Corn Belt! Western ND/SD are already getting soaked, with more rain arriving in the eastern Corn Belt by Friday. The next 5-16 days could bring showers to even the driest spots! 💧🌽
🛢️ 45Z Tax Credit Overhaul:
Big news from Washington! Proposed changes to the 45Z credit could boost rural jobs and spark biofuel innovation 🚜⚡—but also shake up feedstock sourcing 🌎. Chinese used cooking oil may be out, and soybean oil markets are reacting! 📈
🛣️ Iowa Battles Carbon Pipelines:
The Iowa Senate passed a bill tightening rules on eminent domain for carbon pipelines 🚫🛢️. It could slow down Summit Carbon’s $8.9B project. The bill now heads to Governor Reynolds’ desk. 🖊️
🇨🇳 Brazil Soybean Advantage Continues:
Despite US-China tariff cuts, Brazil stays king 👑 in China’s soybean market thanks to no tariffs and a monster crop. US beans still face a 10% tariff, and farmers say the trade truce doesn’t fix long-term problems.
📉 China Soybean Imports Falling:
China expects soybean imports to drop 2.8% next season, with domestic production climbing 🐖🌱. Reduced soymeal use in livestock feed is driving the shift. 📉
📊 Inflation Hits 4-Year Low!
CPI rose just 2.3% YoY in April—the lowest since Feb 2021! 🙌 Markets rallied, and Treasury traders now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025.
✅ Subscribe for updates
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments
🔔 Hit the bell to stay ahead of the markets!

Friendly USDA Report: Why Can't Corn Rally?? May 13, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn Struggles
4:43 Soybeans Rally
6:08 Wheat Sucks
9:08 Planting Progress
11:25 Wheat Ratings
12:46 Mexican Feeder Cattle Suspension
13:54 Stock Market Rally
15:50 Shipments
16:59 Flash Sale
📊 USDA Report Recap + Tariff Talk + Market Reactions 🌽📈
🚨 Monday's USDA report brought friendly corn news, a soybean rally, and wheat pressure — but markets didn’t act like it. Here's what happened:
🌽 Corn Check-In
USDA cut ending stocks for the current year thanks to higher exports ✅
New crop balance sheet came in tighter than expected 📉
But corn still traded lower this morning 🤷
🫘 Soybean Surge
July ‘25 beans jumped nearly 20¢ 🚀
Support from US-China tariff reduction & tighter supply estimates 📉
Ending stocks now the 2nd lowest since ‘12/’13 🔥
🌾 Wheat Woes
Chicago wheat hit a new contract low ❌
USDA boosted both US & global ending stocks 📈
Rain across the Plains = improving crop conditions 🌧️
🌱 Planting Progress
Corn: 62% planted nationally 🌽
Beans: 48% planted 🫘
Several states moving fast, others still behind ⏱️
🪲 Feeder Cattle Suspension
USDA halts Mexican feeder cattle imports due to New World screwworm 🚫🐛
Cattle futures 🚀 on the news
Mexico calls move “unfair” 🇲🇽
📉 Export Update
Corn exports dipped but still solid 📦
Soybean and wheat shipments mixed 📬
USDA also announced a flash soybean sale to Mexico 🇲🇽
💼 Market Rally!
S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all jumped 📈
US-China slash tariffs for 90 days 🛃
Traders now see fewer Fed rate cuts this year 💰
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to subscribe for more ag market updates! 📲
#USDA #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #FarmNews #Cattle #AgTrade #MarketUpdate #CropProgress #Commodities #Farming #AgNews

BREAKING: US and China Agree to Tariff Reduction, Soybeans Rally May 12, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US/China Tariffs Reduced
3:55 Trade War Impact?
6:16 USDA Preview
9:32 US Weather Update
11:36 The Funds
12:35 China Soybean Imports Slow
13:53 Flash Sales
📢 Tariff Truce & Trade Shifts: Big News for Ag & Markets! 🌎🌽📈
🧾 📉 Tariffs Slashed!
The US and China have agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days. 🇺🇸➡️🇨🇳
🔹 US drops from 145% ➡️ 30%
🔹 China drops from 125% ➡️ 10%
Talks included fentanyl policy and potential purchase agreements from China. 🤝
🌱 🧪 Trade War Fallout in Ag
Tariffs have disrupted grain flows, fertilizer imports, and ag input costs.
Farmers face delays, higher prices, and uncertainty. 🚜💸
Brazil benefits as China shifts some demand south. 🇧🇷🌾
📊 🔥 Soybeans Near 3-Month Highs
Markets are moving!
🔹 Soybeans ⬆️
🔹 S&P 500 ⬆️ 2%
🔹 US Dollar 🚀
📅 🌽 New USDA WASDE Report Today!
At 11am CST, get your first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets.
Expect bearish corn news with trend yields + March acreage. 🧮
🌦️ Corn Belt Weather Update
Dry weekend, but moisture is on the way…
🌧️ Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky today
🌧️ ND, SD, MN & east Corn Belt later this week
Watch for dry pockets in Nebraska & western Iowa. ☀️
💰 Fund Flows & Flash Sales
"The Funds" sold 57k corn contracts last week.
🟢 288k MT corn sold to Mexico
🟢 120k MT soybeans sold to Pakistan
Get the full breakdown + CFTC & Fund Tracker charts. 📉📊
🛢️ China Soy Imports Drop 29%!
Only 6.1mmt in April —the lowest in 10 years.
Customs delays & longer Brazil transit times are to blame. ⏱️🚢
Rebound expected in May/June. 📈
👇 Don’t miss this critical update on trade, tariffs, weather & global grain flows. Like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
📌 Stay informed. Stay ready. 💬🌎

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