Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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This Weather Market is Boring AF Jun 09, 2025

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0:00 Boring Weather Market
3:28 US/China Update
6:30 "The Funds"
7:41 China Pathogen Smugglers
8:40 Fake Screwworm Investigation
🌧️ Rain Falls, Markets Stir, and Trade Talks Heat Up! ⚖️🌽
📍 Weekend Weather Recap
Rain favored southern and eastern Corn Belt states including Missouri, IL, IN, OH, KY, TN — plus parts of KS, OK & north TX. While the west looks drier, both the Euro and GFS models suggest near-average rainfall over the next two weeks. 🌦️ Temps stay near-normal this week, with warmer weather possible 8–14 days out. Overall? A benign weather setup to start the week. 📉
🌐 Rare Earths, EVs, and US-China Trade Talks
China just approved rare earth mineral exports following a call between Trump and Xi. 🌍 Trade talks kick off today in London as demand surges for key materials used in robotics and EVs. ⚙️🔋
📊 Money Moves: COT Report Highlights
"The Funds" slashed their net short in corn by 44k contracts — largest short since Sept! 🌽 They also trimmed soybean and spring wheat positions.
🧪 Fungal Pathogen Fears Debunked
Experts downplay the threat of a crop-damaging pathogen smuggled into the US, saying it’s already here, manageable, and not a major food safety risk. 🌾🧬
🐄 Market Manipulation? Screwworm Rumor Sparks Probe
Missouri investigates a fake press release claiming New World screwworm was detected. 📉 The false alarm crashed cattle futures and now R-CALF USA wants the CFTC to dig deeper. 🕵️‍♂️
Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay in the loop! 🔔👇

Trump/Xi Call + Cattle All-Time Highs Jun 06, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Soybean/Corn Price Action and Trump
5:24 US Weather
8:45 Cattle Prices Surge
11:46 Export Sales
14:19 Trade Deficit
16:37Jobless Claims
🌱 Soybeans Climb on Trade Hope
Soybean futures popped on Thursday! 📈 The July25 contract gained nearly 7¢, settling near $10.52 after a phone call between President Trump and President Xi reignited optimism around US-China trade talks. 🤝 A face-to-face meeting could be next!
🌾 Grains Mixed on Geopolitics
Chicago wheat added 2¢ 📊 amid rising Ukraine-Russia tensions, while corn futures ticked higher 🚜 but were capped by sluggish US export demand.
🔥 Drought Monitor Update
The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry last week, worsening drought in IA, IL, MO & WI. 🌵 But only 10% of the region remains in drought—down from 32% earlier this year! The High Plains got relief thanks to widespread rains. ☔
📊 Current Drought Impact:
• Corn: 21%
• Soybeans: 16%
• Winter Wheat: 12%
• Spring Wheat: 19%
• Cattle: 21%
🐮 Cattle Prices Hit Record Highs!
Feeder & live cattle contracts soared to new records! 🚀 Front-month live cattle jumped $4.50 to $222.90, while feeders surged $5.28 to $309.15. Strong fat cattle prices, tight supplies & current feedlots = 🔥 fundamentals.
🚢 US Export Sales Recap
• 🌽 Corn: 37M bu – Up 3% W/W, Mexico top buyer
• 🌱 Soybeans: 7M bu – Up 33% W/W, Bangladesh top buyer
• 🌾 Wheat (25/26): 16M bu – Down 37% W/W, unknown buyers dominate
📉 Record Drop in US Trade Deficit
The US trade gap fell by a record $76.7B in April, landing at $61.6B. 📉 Imports plunged 16.3% while exports rose 3% as businesses braced for tariffs. Biggest deficit drops came vs. China, the EU, and Vietnam. 🌍
📈 Jobless Claims Rise Again
Initial jobless claims rose to 247K—highest since October. 📊 Continued claims dipped slightly but still sit above 2024 levels. Slowing hiring, trade anxiety, and lower consumer demand = labor market stress. 😬
Don’t forget to like & subscribe for real-time grain market updates! 👇💬

China Weather Problems: Floods AND Drought Jun 05, 2025

Show notes

0:00 China Problems
3:04 Trump and China
4:34 US Weather Update
8:26 China Crop Pathogen Smugglers
10:37 Ethanol Production
12:39 NOAA Forecasters
🌾 China’s Wheat Woes, Trade Tensions & Weather Swings! 🇨🇳🌦️
🔥 Extreme Heat Hits China's Wheat Crop
China’s key wheat regions just saw their hottest May since 1961. Some fields suffered yield losses of up to 50% due to drought! 😳🚜 Farmers with irrigation held steady, but questions linger about potential wheat imports.
🛑 Trump vs. Xi: Trade Talks Stalled
President Trump called Xi “extremely hard to deal with” as negotiations stall. 😤📞 A possible call could revive talks, but both sides are throwing blame after a May truce unraveled. Stay tuned for updates on this tense trade drama. 🎭📉
🌧️ Corn Belt Forecast Flip
Yesterday’s “ultra-dry” GFS outlook? ❌ Probably wrong! New data suggests 82% of normal rainfall in the 8-14 day window. Still, the west looks dry in both GFS and Euro models. 🌽⚠️
🧪 Crop Sabotage? Chinese Nationals Charged
Two Chinese citizens face charges for smuggling a crop-damaging fungus—Fusarium graminearum—into the US. 🚨🌾 This pathogen can wreck wheat and poison livestock. Officials say the suspects had studied the fungus back in China. Yikes.
⛽ Ethanol Record!
US ethanol production just hit a weekly all-time high: 1.1M barrels/day! 📈💥 Stocks also surged to 24.4M barrels. Strong margins are back, according to Reuters.
🌀 NOAA Fully Staffed Ahead of Hurricane Season
Despite federal layoffs, NOAA is ready. 💪🌪️ Commerce Secretary Lutnick says critical positions are being filled after a hiring freeze threatened weather coverage. With a wild hurricane season ahead, that’s good news. 🌊🌬️
Don't forget to like, comment & subscribe for updates every week! 🧠📲✨

One Weather Model is Bullish...For Now Jun 04, 2025

Show notes

0:00 GFS Turns Dry
3:13 Wildfire Smoke
6:38 Ag Barometer
8:59 Ukraine Grain Update
10:20 White House and Trade
🌦️ Weather Models Diverge & Canadian Smoke Returns! 🌫️
🌽 Forecast Shift?
Some US weather models have trended drier! The latest GFS run shows minimal Corn Belt rainfall in the 8-14 day outlook. But don’t jump the gun—Euro offers a wetter view with near-normal precipitation. Recent rains hit NE, IA, MN, KS, MO, WI & IL. Radar’s active again this morning.
🔥 Wildfire Smoke Update
Over 200 wildfires are burning in Canada, with smoke spreading as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Minnesota is under a statewide air quality alert, while WI and MI face dangerous conditions. Smoke exposure isn't a crop killer short-term, but prolonged haze could hurt yields. 👃🚫🌱
🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rises!
The Ag Economy Barometer hit 158 in May—its highest since May 2021! Farmers are feeling better about both the present and future 📈. Worries about tariffs remain, but fewer producers expect major income hits. 🔍
🌾 Ukraine Crop Trouble
Ukraine's grain production could fall 10% this season due to weather delays and war disruptions. Oilseed production is also projected lower. Still, Black Sea wheat exports remain stable, and analysts expect nearly 41mmt in grain exports.
🤝 Trade Talks Heat Up
The White House is pushing for new trade agreements, urging partners to submit their best offers by today. Countries like Vietnam, Japan & India are in discussions. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to return July 8, so negotiations are ramping up fast. 📅
Don't forget to like 👍 and subscribe 🔔 for more updates. Join the conversation in the comments!

These Rains are Not Bullish Jun 03, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Rain on the Radar
2:58 Monday Selloff
4:38 Crop Progress & Conditions
11:11 Weaker US Dollar?
13:02 Crude Rally
14:21 Grain Shipments

🌧️ Stormy Skies and Slumping Soybeans! 🌾
🌩️ Weather Update
Radar lit up this morning across the western Corn Belt! Nebraska, Iowa, and parts of the Plains saw active storms. CropProphet expects 1.5" of rain this week, with more on the way next week. Temps look cool out west ❄️ and warm in the east 🔥 — but overall, this remains a non-bullish setup for grains. Some of the driest areas are finally catching a drink! 🌧️🌽
📉 Grain Market Moves
Soybeans slid to a 2-month low on improved Brazil outlook and China trade tensions.
Corn dipped as growing conditions improved.
Wheat bucked the trend, up on a weaker dollar 💵 and Ukraine/Russia tensions.
🌱 Crop Ratings Snapshot
Corn: 69% G/E—slight gain from last week, planting 93% done ✅
Soybeans: 67% G/E in initial rating, 84% planted
Winter Wheat: 52% G/E—best since 2019! 🌟
Spring Wheat: 50% G/E—up, but still well below average 📉
💵 Dollar Outlook
Wall Street banks like Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect a weaker dollar ahead, driven by Fed cuts and Trump’s economic playbook. Foreign currencies may get a boost! 📊📉
🛢️ Oil Bounces Back
Crude rallied 3% to $62.52/barrel 🚀 on OPEC+ decisions and a falling US rig count. Still down YTD, but experts say cuts could tighten supplies.
🚢 Export Action
Corn: 62M bu—beat expectations!
Soybeans: 10M bu—down from last year
Wheat: 20M bu—strong vs. a year ago
👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more grain market breakdowns every week!

This is Not a Bullish Weather Forecast Jun 02, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Weather
3:39 "Mr. NICE GUY"
8:11 Export Sales
9:24 Brazil Corn Harvest
10:26 The Funds
11:27 Flash Sales
📉 Rain Returns, Trade Tensions Rise & Export Sales Slide 🌽🌧️🌎
👀 Here's what you need to know this week in the grain markets:
🌦️ Weekend Rain Recap & Forecast Outlook
Rainfall was limited to the southeastern Corn Belt with up to 1.5" in parts of IL, IN, OH, and KY. The rest of the region stayed dry, but buckle up — forecasts show widespread rain this week! CropProphet expects 1.8" average rain across US corn areas. 🌧️
🇨🇳 Trump vs. China: Trade Tensions Back On
Trump accused China of violating a trade deal and vowed not to be “Mr. NICE GUY” anymore. Visa revocations, chip export controls, and stalled talks sent a chill through markets. 🤝📉
📉 US Export Sales Fall
Corn: Down 23% W/W – 🇯🇵 Japan tops the list
Soybeans: Missed expectations – 🇲🇽 Mexico leads
Wheat: Weak but improved – 🇻🇪 Venezuela steps in
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest Lagging
Only 1.05% harvested vs. 2.7% LY. But crop size is up sharply:
Safrinha corn: 99.8 MMT (+11%)
Total corn: 126.9 MMT (+10%)

💰 Funds Shift Positions
The Funds trimmed corn shorts and went long in soybeans:
+5K corn 🟢
+30K soybeans (largest net long since Feb!) 🫘
+7K SRW wheat 🌾
🚢 Flash Corn Sale!
US exporters sold 210K mt to unknown destinations.
145K for '24/25 📅
65K for '25/26 🚢
📈 Stay informed, subscribe for updates, and drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬👇

Spring Wheat RALLY + New AI Weather Model May 30, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Spring Wheat Rally
3:13 Drought and AI Weather Model
7:43 More Tariff News
10:04 SRE News, Biofuel
12:12 Higher Biofuel Mandates?
15:24 Ethanol Production
16:48 Flash Sales
17:53 Russia Wheat
🌾 Spring Wheat Soars + Drought Moves + Biofuel Battles! ⚖️🔥
🚀 Markets on the Move:
Spring wheat futures surged to multi-week highs overnight! Jul25 hit its best level since April 17 📈 after the USDA rated the crop just 45% good-to-excellent — the worst start since 2021. Funds are still holding a record net short! 👀
🌧️ Drought Monitor Drama:
Rain boosted MN & WI, but dry pockets worsened in parts of IL, IN, MO & IA. The High Plains saw improvement thanks to rain + cool temps. Here’s where drought is hitting hardest:
🌽 Corn – 23%
🌱 Soybeans – 17%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 29%
🐄 Cattle – 23%
🧾 Tariff Twist!
Trump’s global tariffs are back on... for now. A federal court reinstated them temporarily while legal battles continue ⚖️. Could this be peak tariff fatigue in the markets?
⛽ Biofuel Backlash:
Trump's administration may approve backlogged refinery waivers — some dating to 2016. Analysts warn this could undercut ethanol & corn prices, setting a dangerous precedent for farmers. Meanwhile, new 2026 biofuel mandates are coming — industry insiders are pushing for 5.25 billion gallons to help grain demand.
🍻 Ethanol Update:
Production ticked up 1.9% last week to 1.06M bpd. Stocks fell slightly but remain above last year. Margins? Flat. 📊
🚢 Corn Flash Sales:
The US sold 8M bushels of corn — half to Mexico, half to “unknown.” Export demand showing signs of life!
🌍 Russian Wheat Outlook:
Sovecon bumped Russia’s export forecast to 40.8mmt 📦 and raised its crop estimate to 81mmt 🌾—still below recent highs, offering some global price support.
👉 Don't forget to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
📲 Stay informed — markets move fast!

US Court Deems Trump Tariffs Illegal, Market Impact?? + US Weather May 29, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Tariffs Ruled Illegal
2:55 Row Crop Selloff
4:19 US Weather
8:28 US/China Chip Tensions
9:42 India Won't Import Wheat
10:55 Screwworm and Cattle Impact

🇺🇸📉 Trump’s Tariffs BLOCKED by U.S. Court! Markets React! 📈🌾
A U.S. trade court just delivered a major blow to President Trump’s global tariff strategy. 🧑‍⚖️📜 On Wednesday, the Court of International Trade ruled that Trump illegally used emergency powers to impose tariffs — a setback for his economic agenda. The Trump team has already filed an appeal. Meanwhile, the markets are on the move! 📊
📈 Market Reaction & Futures Update
👉 S&P 500 futures surged 1.5% early this morning!
👉 Corn and soybean futures? Mixed bag! 🌽📉
➡️ Corn dropped 9¢ to $4.51
➡️ Soybeans fell 14¢ to $10.49
🌾 Wheat futures ticked higher as crop ratings disappointed.
☔ Weather Wildcards in the Corn Belt
Rainfall outlooks from the Euro 🌍 and GFS 🌎 models remain all over the map! The West may turn drier per GFS, while the East could see reduced rain per the Euro. Iowa, Nebraska, and SD are key watch areas! 🌧️❓
💻 New US-China Chip Tensions
The Commerce Dept. is now blocking high-tech chip design tools from reaching China 🇨🇳💥— a direct hit on AI ambitions. Could this unravel the current tariff truce?
🌾 India’s Wheat Surprise
India says “no thanks” to wheat imports this year with a record harvest of 115.4 MMT! 🌾✅ Strong prices, great weather, and improved seeds have made all the difference.
🐮 Feeder Cattle Imports May Resume
USDA plans to restart Mexican cattle imports 🐂 by year’s end—halted due to screwworm threats. A false scare in Missouri briefly rattled markets earlier this week! 🚨

👇 Don’t forget to **like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!**👇

#Tariffs #GrainMarkets #WeatherOutlook #ChipWar #Wheat #Cattle #TrumpTariffs #FarmNews #MarketUpdate 🌽📉📈

Ohio, We Have a Problem - Planting Delays, Acreage Switching?? May 28, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn/Soybean Conditions and Progress
1:37 Ohio Problems
4:06 Wheat Progress and Conditions
5:27 Wheat Price Action
8:18 China Wheat Update
9:26 Corn Shipments are Strong
10:53 Trump CFTC Pick

🌽 Crop Ratings Drop! Corn & Wheat Disappoint 📉
Welcome back! This week's USDA report brought mixed news for US crops — with corn and spring wheat ratings falling below expectations. Here’s what’s happening in the markets, in the fields, and around the globe 🌎👇
🌾 Crop Conditions Update
📉 Corn rated 68% G/E—below last year & forecast
🌽 Top-rated states: IN, IA, KY, MO, NE, NC, PA
🌱 Corn planting: 87% done
🫘 Soybeans: 76% planted (ahead of average!)
🌾 Winter wheat: 50% G/E—highest for week since 2020
🌱 Spring wheat: 45% G/E—lowest since 2021
📊 Grain Market Moves
💥 Chicago wheat falls 14¢ to $5.29—rainfall relief hits prices
🌧️ Moisture in US Plains, EU & Black Sea = pressure
🌽 Corn flat, 🫘 soybeans inch higher
🌎 Global Weather Watch
🌧️ Heavy rains forecast for Southern China
🌾 Wheat belt moisture improving, but flooding risk looms
🚢 Export Snapshot
🇺🇸 Corn exports: 1.4 mmt—strong YoY, but down WoW
🫘 Soybeans: near low end of expectations
🌾 Wheat: exceeds forecast with big YoY gain
⚖️ Crypto & CFTC in the Spotlight
🚨 Trump’s CFTC nominee under fire for crypto ties
💼 Brian Quintez pledges to cut crypto links if confirmed
📜 Congress weighs expanding CFTC’s crypto authority
📺 Don’t miss the full breakdown!
👍 Like, subscribe & drop a comment below with your market take!
📡 Stay tuned for charts, maps & data visuals throughout the video!
#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #USDA #GrainMarkets #CryptoNews #FarmReport #AgNews #CommodityMarkets #WeatherWatch

Trump Tariff Delay + Euro vs. GFS Battle May 27, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Trump Tariff Delay
3:05 US Weather
6:21 The Funds
9:36 Cattle on Feed
12:48 Deere and Drone Tech
📢 Trump Extends EU Tariff Deadline + Market Reactions, Weather, & Ag Tech News! 🌽📈
🚨 Tariff Talk Heats Up
President Trump has extended the EU tariff deadline to July 9 following a call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The move delays a proposed 50% tariff on EU goods 😳 — part of Trump’s reciprocal tariff strategy. Markets are breathing a sigh of relief today after a volatile Friday 📉➡️📈. The S&P 500 is up 1.6%!
📱 Meanwhile, Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on foreign-made smartphones, including Apple and Samsung devices. 📲💸
🌦️ Weekend Weather Update
Rain favored the Plains & Mid-South, hitting NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, & the Gulf 🌧️. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, though scattered showers are seen in SD, MN, NE, & IA this morning. Divergence between the Euro & GFS models creates some forecast uncertainty this week. 🤔🌀
📊 Money Moves in the Corn Market
"The Funds" are getting bearish! 🐻 Last week, money managers increased their net short corn position to 95k contracts — the biggest since Oct ‘24. Also:
• Soybeans: net sellers of 24k
• SRW Wheat: net buyers of 20k
🐮 Cattle on Feed Report = Bullish?
• On Feed: 11.4M head (⬇️ 2%)
• April Placements: Lowest since 2020
• Beef in Cold Storage: Lowest for April since 2014
This tight supply setup could fuel further gains in cattle prices. 🚀🥩
🚁 John Deere Goes Airborne!
Big green is making moves! 💚 John Deere just acquired Sentera, a drone and ag tech firm helping farmers spot weeds and monitor crops from the sky. This supports Deere’s automation push in response to labor shortages and adds to their strong 2025 — the stock is up 22% YTD 📈🌾
👇 Drop your thoughts below and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more ag market insights! 👇
#Tariffs #CornMarket #AgTech #JohnDeere #CattlePrices #GrainMarkets #WeatherWatch #TrumpTariffs #FarmNews 🌽📊🐄💼

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