Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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Monday's USDA Report: Super Bearish or Already Discounted?? May 09, 2025

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0:00 Da Pope
1:03 Charts
4:58 USDA Preview
9:55 US/UK Deal
12:21 Trump China Thoughts
16:21 Drought/Weather Update
20:28 Export Sales
21:38 Flash Sales
📊 USDA Report Monday + Big Trade News! 🌍🌽
📅 Mark your calendar! USDA drops its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Monday at 11am CST. We'll get our first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets, with trend yields and March acreage in focus. 📉 Early expectations suggest bearish new crop corn vs. the current year. Pre-report estimates 👇
🇺🇸🇬🇧 US–UK Strike Ag Deal!
The UK will eliminate its 19% ethanol tariff, giving a major boost to the US ethanol industry 🚀 ($535M in exports last year). The deal also expands beef trade, but UK food safety rules will still apply. For context: the UK = 🇬🇧 68 million people, with 36 lbs of beef consumption per person vs. 59 lbs in the US. 🍖📉
📈 Trump Eyes China Tariff Cuts
President Trump expressed hope for progress in this weekend’s trade talks with China 🇨🇳. A tariff reduction (currently at 145%) could be on the table. Markets responded: S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1% 💹
🌾 Drought Monitor Highlights
Most of the Corn Belt is drought-free, but dryness is growing in parts of MO, IL, IN & the High Plains. Here’s the USDA breakdown:
Corn: 20%
Soybeans: 15%
Winter Wheat: 22%
Spring Wheat: 37%
Cattle Areas: 30%
🚢 Export Sales Recap
Corn: 1.7mmt – 🌽 65M bu (+64% WoW) – Japan leads
Soybeans: 377k mt – 🫘 14M bu – Mexico leads
Wheat: 70k mt – 🌾 3M bu – Mexico leads
🌎 China Turns to Argentina
China signed a $900M non-binding grain deal with 🇦🇷 Argentina, aiming to sidestep Trump’s tariffs. Expect rising Argentine corn & soybean shipments to China.
📢 Flash Sales!
Mexico: 205k mt corn (2024/25 & 2025/26)
Unknown Dest.: 115k mt corn (2024/25)
Pakistan: 225k mt soybeans (largest since June 2022) 🛳️
📬 Subscribe for more updates & leave your thoughts in the comments!

Trump Throws Cold Water on US/China Optimism, Back to Trading Weather May 08, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn Selloff
4:32 Trump Comments, US/UK Deal
5:45 Podcast News
9:06 Bunge and Andersons
10:39 Corteva
11:51 Ethaonl Production/Stocks
12:44 Fed Rates
📉 Corn Futures Slide Amid Trade Tensions & Weather Outlook 🌾
Corn prices dipped Wednesday as optimism over US–China trade talks gave way to fresh uncertainty. July25 corn futures settled near $4.49 per bushel, down 6 cents on the day. President Trump's refusal to lower tariffs ahead of upcoming negotiations with Beijing, combined with favorable US planting weather, pressured the market. Planting is already ahead of schedule—corn 40% and soybeans 30% complete.
🇨🇳 Tariff Talk Turns Tense
Trump made it clear: no tariff rollbacks before talks. With US and Chinese officials set to meet in Switzerland, the president doubled down on his hardline stance. Beijing isn't happy. Meanwhile, a US–UK trade deal could be announced today.
🎙️ Podcast Profits Soar
The podcasting industry is booming—$7.3 billion in 2024, more than double previous estimates! YouTube now dominates the space, with ad and subscription revenue leading the way.
📉 Grain Traders Feel the Heat
Bunge saw Q1 profits drop 40%, while Andersons posted disappointing revenue and a 10% stock dive. Ongoing tariff drama and unclear biofuel credits are taking a toll.
🌱 Corteva Sees Strong Seed Sales
Corteva beat earnings estimates with an $842M Q1 profit thanks to higher seed prices—especially in North America. However, global sales dipped 2% amid currency headwinds.
📊 Corteva financial chart below.
🛢️ Ethanol Production Slips Slightly
Weekly ethanol output came in at 1.02M barrels/day—down slightly from last week, but still strong year-over-year. Margins are improving, especially in the eastern Corn Belt.
🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Cites Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 4.3%, resisting Trump’s calls for cuts. Powell cited rising inflation risks and economic fallout from trade tensions.
💸 Stagflation fears and rate outlook in the chart section.
👇 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates, charts, and expert analysis!
#CornMarket #Tariffs #USChinaTrade #Ethanol #Corteva #PodcastBoom #FedUpdate #GrainPrices #FarmEconomy #Commodities

Grains RALLY on US/China Optimism May 07, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US/China
3:16 New Trade Agreements?
4:33 China Wheat Problems
6:49 Transition Planning
8:35 Farmer Sentiment
10:29 Ethanol Exports are Strong
11:49 SAF News
13:17 Problems at ADM
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks Begin This Weekend! 🌍
Big moves on the global stage! US officials are heading to Switzerland for high-stakes trade talks with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the goal is de-escalation, not a final deal—but with tariffs as high as 145%, the stakes are massive. 💥📉
🌾 Meanwhile... Hot Weather Threatens China's Wheat Crop
A heatwave is scorching Henan, China's top wheat-producing province, with drought fears rising. Could this spark more wheat imports? 👀🌾 See charts below.
🤝 Trump Eyes New Trade Deals
While China's negotiations stall, India 🇮🇳 and Japan 🇯🇵 may be first in line for new trade agreements. Stay tuned. 📋🖊️
🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds
Despite tariff headaches, farmers are feeling a bit better about the road ahead, says Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer. But many still worry about input costs and long-term impact. 🌱📊
⛽ Biofuel Boom: Ethanol & SAF on the Rise!
Ethanol exports surged 41% in March. 🚢
SAF production has 15x’d since January! ✈️🌿
All thanks to federal & state incentives pushing the clean fuel agenda. 🔋🌎
📉 ADM Feels the Pressure
Uncertainty in biofuel policy and weak crushing margins are weighing on profits. ADM expects earnings at the low end of forecasts—see why in the charts. 📉📦
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for more ag market updates! 🌽📈
#USChinaTrade #Tariffs #Ethanol #SAF #AgNews #FarmEconomy #WheatCrop #Biofuels #ADM #Farmers #TrumpTradePolicy

Why Did Corn Prices TANK on Monday?? May 06, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn Selloff
3:00 Corn and Soybean Planting Pace
7:04 Wheat Progress / Conditions
8:13 Russian Wheat Pricing
9:09 Tyson Slump
11:24 Grain Shipments
📉 Grain Markets Under Pressure! 🌽🌾💥
Corn futures took a dive Monday as fast US planting progress and favorable weather set a bearish tone. Jul25 corn dropped nearly 15¢ to $4.54. Traders are eyeing next week’s USDA numbers and watching Brazil’s second crop flourish. 🇺🇸🌤️🇧🇷
🚜 US Planting Progress 🌱
Corn planting is 40% complete—slightly behind trade guesses but still ahead of average. Soybeans are at 30%, also ahead of normal pace. Drier weather this week should accelerate progress across the Corn Belt. 🌽🌿
🌾 Wheat Ratings & Progress 📈
Winter wheat condition improved to 51% good-excellent, beating expectations. Spring wheat planting also moved forward at 44% complete. Russia's new crop wheat offers are pressuring global markets as frost fears fade. 🇷🇺💧
🥩 Tyson Foods Tumbles 📉🐄
Tyson shares sank despite a strong Q2 report, as beef sector losses mount. The US cowherd is at its smallest since 1961, driving cattle costs sky-high. Ranchers may finally be turning the corner on herd rebuilding. 💸📉
🚢 Export Update 🚢
US corn inspections dipped to 1.6mmt but remain solid YoY. Soybean and wheat inspections missed expectations, with both down sharply from last week. 📊🌍
👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates!

"Wide Open" US Planting Window + "Perfect" Brazil Weather May 05, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US Planting Window
2:49 "Perfect" Brazil Weather
4:51 Tariff Exemptions
8:26 USDA Budget Cuts
9:44 The Funds
10:45 Black Sea Drone Attack
📉🌾 Grain Market Update | Rainfall, Brazil Crop Bump, China Tariff Moves & More! 🇨🇳🇧🇷
🌦️ Weekend Weather Recap
Rain was spotty across the eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South! Some parts of KY & OH got up to 2.7", but most areas saw less. The western Corn Belt stayed mostly dry. Planting weather looks favorable this week with minimal rain expected! 🌽
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Surprise
StoneX bumped up its Brazil soybean estimate to 168.4 MMT and raised second corn crop projections to 104.3 MMT thanks to solid yields in Mato Grosso. One analyst even called the crop “nearly perfect”! 🚜☀️
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Watch
China just exempted $40B in US goods from tariffs—pharma, chemicals & more. The US has also lifted tariffs on $102B of Chinese goods. Rumors are swirling that talks may resume soon. Trump hinted that a deal could come this week. 📈🗣️
💰 Trump Budget Targets Ag
Trump’s proposed budget slashes over $4.5B from USDA funding. Cuts hit CRP, rural development, and renewable energy projects—but there's $100M added for food safety and rural housing aid. 🏡❌🌱
📊 Fund Moves
CFTC says "The Funds" sold off 46k corn contracts last week. Net short positions in SRW wheat are now the largest since Nov 2023! Soybeans saw a slight net buying trend. 📉💼
🔥 Black Sea Tensions
Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s biggest grain terminal at Novorossiysk. Damage was done, but operations resumed quickly. VP Vance says peace talks have been initiated, but Russia’s not ready for a truce yet. ⚠️🛩️🌾
👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Stay informed — it matters more than ever! 💬📲

US/China Tensions Cool + Farm Machinery Slump May 02, 2025

Show notes

0:00 China Assessing Talks
2:30 Hassett Comments
3:00 Soybean Stuff
4:59 Farm Machinery Slump
7:52 Drought Monitor
10:58 Export Sales
13:01 California Gas Ban?
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks? Signals from Beijing & Washington
Big moves may be brewing in global trade! China says the US wants to talk tariffs, but Beijing is calling for "sincerity." Will this lead to a breakthrough? Let’s break it all down 👇
🧨 Tariff Tensions & Trade Optimism
China's Commerce Ministry revealed the US has reached out about potential talks. Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is hopeful, especially after China removed tariffs on some US goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 💊💻
🚜 Farm Machinery Sales Slump
Tariff uncertainty is crushing machinery demand. CNH Industrial and AGCO posted big Q1 sales drops—23% and 30%. 📉 But oddly… both stocks rallied! AGCO reaffirmed 2025 sales goals while CNH forecasted a steep decline.
🌾 Drought Conditions Improving
USDA’s latest drought data brings some relief 🌧️:
✔️ Drought in the Corn Belt down to 6%
✔️ Kansas sees the biggest improvement—drought fell from 64% to 37%!
✔️ Drought still lingers in wheat and cattle areas (Spring Wheat: 37%, Cattle: 31%)
🌽 Grain Export Sales Snapshot
📉 Corn: 1 MMT – down 12% WoW
📈 Soybeans: 428,200 MT – up 55% WoW
📉 Wheat: 72,000 MT – sharply lower
Top buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (corn), 🇨🇳 China (soybeans), 🇹🇭 Thailand (wheat)
🚗 California Gas Car Ban in Trouble?
The House just voted to repeal California’s EV waiver ❗ The Senate vote is next. This could derail the 2035 gas car ban and affect other states like NY and WA. California is the #2 US consumer of both gasoline and ethanol. ⛽🌽
👉 Don’t miss an update!
Subscribe & drop your thoughts in the comments 💬
Stay tuned for more grain market and trade breakdowns every week!

EU Deforestation Laws and Grain Exports + Corn Belt Rains May 01, 2025

Show notes

0:00 EU Deforestation Law Impact
2:56 Corn Belt Rains
4:48 GDP Contraction
8:46 China PMI
9:46 Ethanol Production
10:50 Flash Sale
🪵 EU’s New Deforestation Law 🌍
The 🇪🇺 EU is set to label the 🇺🇸 US as low-risk under its deforestation law, easing concerns for American exporters of beef, grain, and timber. Meanwhile, 🇧🇷 Brazil is expected to be tagged standard-risk, which could hurt its soy and beef exports. A final vote is coming mid-May!
🌧️ Radar Watch: Corn Belt Rains 🌽
Storms are active across parts of IA, IL, MN, MI & IN this morning, with 2–3" possible in IL. More rain is on the way for the Eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South. US planting remains ahead of schedule — see maps below! 🚜
📉 US GDP Shrinks in Q1 🇺🇸
The US economy contracted 0.3% last quarter — the first dip since 2022. A surge in imports (ahead of Trump’s tariffs), weak consumer spending, and a drop in government outlays all played a role. Net exports shaved off nearly 5% from GDP, the worst since 1947! 😳
🏭 China’s PMI Falls Below 50 🐉
China’s manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory with a 49.0 PMI reading. Ongoing US-China tensions continue to weigh on trade and exports. Beijing may soon unveil new stimulus efforts. 📉
🛢️ Ethanol Update: Margins Near Breakeven 🍶
US ethanol output rose to 1.04M bpd last week. Stocks dipped slightly but remain elevated. Margins are tight, with the Eastern Corn Belt reporting the best profitability. ⚗️
🚢 Corn Flash Sale + Export Strength 🌎
US exporters booked 120,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 24/25. Accumulated sales are up 26% YoY! With Brazil on hold until July, US corn is HOT on the world stage. 🔥
Stay informed and make better marketing decisions with the data that matters. 💼📈
👉 Subscribe for more ag updates
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments — what do YOU think about the new EU rules?
👍 Like, share & follow for the latest!

Why Did Corn Futures COLLAPSE on Tuesday?? Apr 30, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Tuesday Selloff
3:34 China to Reduce Grain/Meal Use
6:04 Transition Planning
7:38 China Comments
8:48 Russia Wheat Update
10:04 Amazon Tariff Charges?
11:33 Flash Sales
🌽📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide Sharply!
Corn and soybean futures took a hit Tuesday as planting progress races ahead! The Jul25 corn contract fell 13¢ to around $4.70, while soybeans dropped nearly 10¢ to $10.53. South American weather is looking great, and there’s no big bearish headline—just a wave of selling pressure as weather premiums fade.
🌾🌦 Wheat Drifts Lower Too
SRW wheat followed suit, down 6¢ to $5.26. Timely US Plains rain and a slight bump in Russian exports kept prices under pressure.
🐖🥣 China’s New Feed Plan
China plans to cut grain use in livestock feed to 60% and soymeal to just 10% by 2030. The shift toward alternative proteins like insects and food waste is a major step in Beijing’s strategy to reduce reliance on US soybeans. 📉
🛑🇨🇳 China Pushes Back on Tariffs
At a BRICS meeting, China warned against giving in to US tariff pressure. Officials demand a rollback of all tariffs before trade talks can start. Meanwhile, the US hints at tougher measures.
🚢🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Export Forecast Raised
Sovecon bumped up its Russian wheat export forecast to 40.7mmt despite ongoing profitability issues. Margins remain tight, and a breakout in shipments still looks unlikely.
🛒🇺🇸 Amazon Won’t Show Tariff Costs
After blowback from the White House and President Trump, Amazon has scrapped plans to display tariff charges on its discount platform, Amazon Haul. The drama continues…
📦🌍 Flash Sales to Spain & Unknown Buyers!
USDA reported new flash sales:
🔹 120,000mt of corn to Spain
🔹 110,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations
👇 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for the latest grain market insights every week!
#GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #ChinaTrade #USDA #Tariffs #AgricultureNews

Wheat Futures Tumble + Summer E15 Ethanol Apr 29, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Wheat Futures Fall
3:50 Summer E15
7:36 Corn and Soybean Planting
9:15 US Wheat Update
10:03 China Comments
11:32 Grain Shipments are Strong
12:19 Screwworm Update

🌾 Wheat Futures Tumble Amid Plains Rainfall! 🌧️
Big moves in the grain markets to kick off the week! Here's what's happening: 👇
🌾 Wheat Update
SRW wheat fell 14¢ to $5.31/bu. 📉
HRW wheat dropped 11¢ to $5.40/bu. 📉
Heavy rainfall in Texas & Oklahoma (6–8 inches possible!) forecasted 🌦️
🌽 Corn & Soybeans Steady
Futures mostly flat as traders watch for export disruptions from Trump's China trade war ⚖️
⛽ Nationwide E15 Sales Approved
Emergency EPA waiver greenlights E15 sales this summer. 🚗💨
Analysts expect little impact on corn demand. 📊
🌱 Planting Progress
Corn planting: 24% complete vs. 22% avg. 🌽
Soybean planting: 18% complete vs. 12% avg. 🌱
🌾 Winter Wheat Ratings Improve
49% good-excellent, beating analyst expectations ✅
Spring wheat planting also ahead of average. 📈
🌍 China Shifts Away from US Grain
Record soybean imports from South America expected 📦
Some disruptions after Brazil harvest delays ⏳
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn inspections strong at 1.6mmt 🚢
Wheat and soybean shipments mixed. 📦
🐄 US-Mexico Screwworm Agreement
Border closure on feeder cattle imports avoided ✅
Threat averted that could've tightened cattle supplies further. 🚜
👇 Don't forget to LIKE, COMMENT, and SUBSCRIBE for your daily grain market updates!

Mixed Messaging: Is the US Talking to China? + US Weather Apr 28, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Mixed Messaging
3:13 Japan and South Korea Talks
4:06 US Weather and Rains
8:06 Fund Positions
9:21 Panama Canal
10:44 Another Screwworm/Cattle Headline
11:54 Flash Sale
🇺🇸🌎 Trade Talks...or No Talks? 🇨🇳❓
Big moves (and some big confusion) on the global trade front! President Trump says China wants a deal, but Beijing denies any talks 🤔. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn't sure if Trump spoke to Xi Jinping directly, though USDA's Brooke Rollins says daily tariff conversations are happening 📞. Meanwhile, soybean futures are feeling the pressure early this morning 🌱📉.
🗺️ Weekend Trade Updates:
✅ Productive talks with Japan and South Korea
✅ New focus on currency policy with South Korea
✅ More rain on the way for the US Corn Belt ☔—see maps below!
📊 Fund Tracker Highlights:
Funds net buyers of soybeans for a 4th week! 🚀
Largest net-long soybean position since February!
Funds sold corn but bought some SRW wheat 🌽🌾.
🚢 Trump's Shipping Push:
Demanding free US passage through the Panama and Suez Canals! 🌍
Reviving US shipbuilding as China tensions rise 🔥.
🐂 Border Watch:
USDA threatens new cattle import restrictions from Mexico. 🐄🚫
Screwworm outbreak grows—action deadline looms April 30!
🌽 Flash Corn Sale:
235,000mt sold to Mexico! 🇲🇽
US remains the top corn supplier with Brazil out of the game (for now). ⚡
👇 Stay tuned, like & subscribe for the latest on trade, markets, and agriculture!
Let's talk about it in the comments! 💬👇

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