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As Much Fun As a Ride Down a Rusty Slide Jun 25, 2025

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🕊️ Israel-Iran Truce Holds
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains intact. 🌙 Overnight calm continues, and international energy traders are closely watching developments. A Financial Times article explains that a symbolic, pre-communicated strike on a U.S. base in Qatar signaled the conflict would avoid damaging Iran’s key oil infrastructure. ⚠️ Fears about the Straits of Hormuz being closed — and disrupting global oil flow — were eased. Iran’s ally, 🇨🇳 China, would’ve been the hardest hit, giving Iran incentive to avoid escalation.
🌽 July Corn Hits New Lows
July corn futures traded to fresh life-of-contract lows Tuesday, breaking through levels not seen since August 2024. 📉 With first notice day approaching Friday, volume is shifting to the September and December contracts. Hedge funds have mostly rolled out, but ~200,000 contracts remain open. The July–September spread remains inverted, and some in the Eastern Corn Belt believe this could flip to a carry amid continued fund selling and ample commercial supplies. 🏦🚜
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Crop Breaks Records
Brazil is on track for a record-large second corn crop at 123.3 MMT, per Agroconsult. That’s 9.2% higher than May’s estimate and nearly 20% more than last year’s output. 🌧️ Favorable weather in April and May — especially in Mato Grosso — is boosting yields by nearly 12%. However, this bumper crop is raising concerns about added pressure on already weak domestic prices and sluggish export demand. 💰📦
🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico
USDA reported a big corn sale Tuesday: 630,000 MT (25 million bushels) sold to 🇲🇽 Mexico.
554,400 MT (22M bu) for 2025/26
75,600 MT (3M bu) for 2026/27
📊 This supports demand sentiment but hasn’t turned the tide in weak futures yet.
🌱 Soybean Oil Fills Chart Gaps
Soybean oil has slumped, dragged down by falling NYMEX diesel prices (down 40¢ since Sunday). 📉 It’s now testing chart gaps opened during the recent biofuel euphoria. Traders expect those gaps to fill — notably down to 51.19 in the December contract. Smaller gaps between 53.46 and 53.62 are also being eyed. 📈 Technical traders are positioning cautiously with tight stop-losses around those levels. 🧮
🌤️ Weather Outlook: Warm but Moist
Weather remains mostly non-threatening through early July. ☀️ Both the Euro and GFS models have backed off earlier rain projections, but 6–10-day forecasts still look hot and moist. CropProphet’s 15-day outlook is friendly for soybeans 🌱 and mixed for corn 🌽, with the Upper Midwest benefiting most. However, corn still shows slight downside vs. USDA estimates due to last week’s crop rating drop.

Markets Enter Max Payne Jun 24, 2025

Show notes

🌍 Market Surprise: Weakness Despite geopolitics, traders were caught off guard Monday. Despite major geopolitical events over the weekend, markets weakened instead of rallying. Crude oil briefly hit ~$78—the highest since January—but reversed sharply after breaking Friday’s ~$74 close. 🚫📈

With energy markets losing steam, grain futures—linked through biofuels—also fell under pressure. 🌾🔻

🌽 Corn Conditions Dip US corn crop conditions fell for the first time this season: 🔹 70% rated good/excellent, down from 72% last week 🔹 Still above the 5-year average of 64%

Biggest declines: Indiana, Kentucky, Nebraska. Outside the Corn Belt: sharp drops in Colorado, Texas, and North Dakota. 🌦️

🌱 Soybean Ratings Hold Steady Soybeans remained at 66% good/excellent, above the 63% 5-year average. While most Corn Belt states saw declines, only Michigan and Ohio were below the national average. 🌿✅

🌾 Wheat Ratings Slide Again: Winter wheat: 🔻 49% good/excellent, down from 52% 🔻 Below analysts’ expectations ⚠️ Harvest is at 19%—behind the 28% average.

Spring wheat also declined: 🔻 54% good/excellent vs. 57% last week. 📉 Matches 5-year average but misses expectations Montana and South Dakota trailed the national average. 📊

🚢 Export Summary 📦 Corn: 1.5mmt exported, down 13% vs. last week, but up 28% YoY.

📦 Soybeans: 192,890mt ▪️ Below expectations ▪️ -14% WoW, -45% YoY

📦 Wheat: 254,782mt ▪️ -34% WoW, -26% YoY

💰 Fund Positions & CFTC Data: Funds grew more bearish on corn: 🔻 Net short increased by 19k to 169k contracts—the most since September.

Meanwhile: 🟢 Net buyers of 27k soybean and 13k SRW wheat contracts 📉 SRW net short now 74k—the smallest since February.

Funds were once seen as “indecisive,” but the growing short positions suggest a clear bearish bias. With the CN:CU spread nearly at carry, rolling shorts to Sept becomes cheaper—adding fuel to their stance. 📉📊

Iran is Already Old News + Where are the Crop Problems?? Jun 23, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Iran and Markets
3:02 Soybean and Wheat Rally
4:45 Drought + US Weather
9:12 Export Sales
10:31 Ethanol Production
11:32 Flash Sale
12:02 Cattle on Feed
🔥 Markets React to Middle East Tensions 🌍💥
Oil prices surged Sunday night after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with President Trump warning of further action and Iran vowing “everlasting consequences.” Despite the drama, no physical disruptions to crude shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz have occurred. 🌊⛽️ Some analysts say the recent $10/bbl spike is already pricing in risk. Grain traders? Not impressed—wheat opened lower despite geopolitical fireworks. 📉
🌱 Soybeans & Wheat Hit Highs... Then Fade 📈
Friday brought fresh multi-month highs in soybean and spring wheat futures! 🚀
• Soybeans (Nov25) nearly posted a calendar-year high, fueled by bullish biofuel news and a strong Brazilian real 🇧🇷
• Spring Wheat (Dec25) led the wheat complex higher on Middle East tension and U.S. crop concerns 🌾
But both markets faded into the weekend.
🌧️ Drought Conditions Improve in Corn Belt 🌽
USDA’s latest drought monitor shows big progress:
• Only 7.5% of the Corn Belt is in drought vs. 32% earlier this year!
• IA, WI, MN saw improvement. 🌧️
• ND and NE also got relief
• But KS? Slight deterioration 😕
🔹 Corn: 17% in drought
🔹 Soybeans: 13%
🔹 Winter Wheat: 14%
🔹 Spring Wheat: 22%
🔹 Cattle: 19%
🚢 Export Sales Rebound 📦
• Corn: 903,800 mt—Japan 🇯🇵 leads
• Soybeans: 539,500 mt—Germany 🇩🇪 surprise buyer
• Wheat: 427,200 mt—Taiwan 🇹🇼 tops the list
Corn sales are now +26% vs. last year! 🟢
🍺 Ethanol Stays Strong, Margins Weaken
• Production: 1.11mil bbl/day (↓1% WoW, ↑5% YoY)
• Stocks: 24.12mil bbl (seasonally high)
• Margins slipping per Reuters 💸
Still, output remains near record highs. 🚛
🐄 Cattle on Feed: Neutral to Bullish 📋
• Total: 11.4 million head (↓1% YoY)
• Placements: 92% of last year (bullish surprise)
• Marketings: 90% of last year
Ongoing tight supplies continue to support the market. 📈
👇 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your market take in the comments! 👇
🔔 Stay informed, stay sharp.

"Make America Healthy Again" - Farm Groups Want Input Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Housekeeping
1:06 MAHA and Farm Groups
3:45 45Z News and Tax Package
5:56 US Weather Forecasts
9:11 Brazil Currency
10:48 Meal Flash Sale
🔥 Big Moves in DC, Weather, and the Dollar! 🌽💥
🌱 🚨 MAHA Report Pushback!
Over 250 ag groups—like the Farm Bureau—are calling out the MAHA report for misleading claims about pesticides 🚜. They’ve urged the commission to open up for public comment and include real voices from the field 👨‍🌾. The next report drops in August!
💸 Tax Talk: 45Z Gets a Twist!
The Senate’s version of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” just landed. It extends the 45Z tax credit but slaps a 20% penalty on foreign feedstocks 🌍. Plus, corn ethanol gets a win with the removal of land use penalties, and livestock manure-based fuels get the green light 🐄⚡. EPA vs. Congress? Mixed signals abound 🤷‍♂️.
🌧️ Weather Wobbles & Crop Outlook
Forecasts turned slightly drier, with GFS data now calling for 84% of normal rainfall this week. Temps look 🔥 above average across the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. But don’t count out more rain during the extended outlook.
💵 Dollar Drops = Soybean Boost
The US dollar just hit a 7-month low vs. the Brazilian Real 📉. Why? Investors chasing higher returns in Brazil, where interest rates are sky-high 📈. A stronger Real = less selling by Brazilian farmers, which helps US soybeans shine on the global market 🌎🌱.
🚢 Flash Sale Alert!
US exporters just sold 120,000mt of soybean cake & meal to unknown destinations 🌟. That makes 400,000mt sold via flash sales this year—demand is alive and well! 🫘
👉 Stay tuned for more updates—and don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for the latest grain market insights! 📲💬

HEAT to Enter US Corn Belt...but nobody cares Jun 17, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn Belt Heat
2:45 Bean Oil, Meal
6:07 Crop Ratings and Progress
8:35 Corn Shipments are Still Strong
9:50 NOPA Crush
11:06 Russia Wheat
12:09 Middle East Update
🌡️ Scorching Temps & Surging Soy Oil! 🚀
🔥 🌽 US Corn Belt Heats Up
Temps across the Corn Belt are expected to run 6.4°F above normal this week, according to GFS and CropProphet data. Highs in the 90s possible by Sunday! But don't panic—rainfall remains above normal in both the short and medium term. 🌧️
🛢️ 🌱 Soybean Oil Explodes Higher
Soybean oil futures 📈 hit a 20-month high and traded limit-up again Monday following the EPA's aggressive biofuel blending targets. Meanwhile, soybeans spiked but closed flat, and corn dropped ~10¢ on weather pressure. See updated charts for soybean oil and meal. 📊
🌾 Crop Conditions Update
✅ Corn: Rated 72% good-to-excellent (up 1%)
📉 Soybeans: Dropped to 66% good-to-excellent
📉 Winter Wheat: Fell to 52% G/E, despite being best for the week since 2020
✅ Spring Wheat: Climbed to 57% G/E—beating expectations again!
💡 Big moves seen in states like ND, TX, WI, MI, and NC.
🚢 US Export Inspections
🌽 Corn exports: 1.7 mmt—near high end of expectations
🌱 Soybeans: Weak at just 215k mt
🌾 Wheat: Up on the week but still behind last year
🏭 May NOPA Crush Report
US soybean crush hit 192.8 million bushels—a May record 📅
🥫 Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.4 billion lbs, the lowest May figure since 2004
📉 Both metrics came in under trade expectations.
🌍 Russia Wheat Outlook Mixed
➕ Sovecon boosts forecast to 82.8mmt
⚠️ Rostov region declares agricultural emergency amid drought
🌾 Deputy PM sees 135mmt total grain output for 2025
🌍 Middle East Tensions Rise Again
President Trump has urged evacuation of Tehran. 🛫
Iran signals possible nuclear talks—but only if US avoids Israel conflict
Israel continues strikes. Analysts warn of major trade & oil disruptions if escalation continues.💥
Crude trades near $71/bbl—down from recent highs.
Smash that 👍 Like, hit 🔔 Subscribe, and let us know what YOU think in the comments! 👇
Stay informed. Stay sharp. 🌾

Biofuel Blockbuster: Record Soybean Oil Demand?? Jun 16, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Biofuel Blockbuster
4:06 Middle East and Crude
5:59 US Weather and Market Impact
9:40 The Funds
10:31 Brazil Corn Harvest
🎥 EPA Biofuel Boost, Middle East Tensions & Corn Market Moves! 🌽🛢️⚔️
📈 BIG news from the EPA!
The agency just proposed new biofuel blending targets, raising total mandates to 24.02B gallons in 2026 and 24.46B in 2027. The new quotas fall short of industry recommendations but deliver a major win for biodiesel, with the biomass-based diesel target jumping to 5.61B gallons – above both current and proposed levels. Soybean oil futures exploded 🚀, and soybeans rallied to a three-week high.
🌍 War in the Middle East Intensifies
Israel and Iran continue trading deadly missile attacks. Casualties are rising on both sides, and President Trump has warned that US involvement remains on the table. Energy markets reacted fast—crude oil surged 7%, and natural gas climbed 3%.
🌦️ Weekend Rainfall in the Corn Belt
Scattered storms hit parts of the Midwest, with radar showing activity across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Forecasts show 1"+ rain expected across much of the Corn Belt this week. Corn futures are trading lower to start Monday.
📊 Fund Positioning Update
The latest CFTC report shows money managers growing more bearish on corn, pushing their net short to 150K contracts—the most since September! Meanwhile, funds added soybeans and wheat.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Second Crop Corn Harvest Slows
Harvest progress remains sluggish at just 5.6% complete, compared to 14% last year. Delays from late planting and poor weather continue to hamper fieldwork.
👇 Stay informed! Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments. Full EPA release linked below!

Tight Stocks, Surging Crude, Weak Dollar - Why Can't Corn Rally??? Jun 13, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Friendly Corn Numbers (USDA)
4:12 Crude SURGES
6:19 US Dollar is Weak
9:25 US Drought / Weather
14:46 Biofuel News / RVOs
16:49 Export Sales
18:40 ICE and Ag
📊 USDA Report, Soaring Oil Prices, & Dollar Dive! | Market Recap 🌽🛢️💵
Welcome back! In today’s update, we’re breaking down a packed Thursday full of market-moving headlines 👇
🌽 USDA Report Recap
No shocks here! USDA raised old crop corn exports 📈 and trimmed carryout, while leaving soybeans unchanged. Wheat exports saw a bump too. Despite the friendly tone, corn couldn’t catch a bid. Traders seem laser-focused on crop weather now! 🌦️
🛢️ Crude Oil Surges 🚨
WTI crude spiked nearly 12% overnight after Israel launched major strikes on Iran, hitting nuclear and military targets. Iran confirmed damage at Natanz. With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz boiling over, global oil markets are on edge. ⚠️
💵 US Dollar Hits 3-Year Low
The dollar dropped to its weakest level since April 2022! The euro and pound surged as inflation and jobless data added pressure on the Fed to cut rates at its June 18 meeting. 📉
🌾 Drought Monitor Highlights
Corn Belt weather was a mixed bag. Some areas improved, others worsened. Currently:
→ Corn in drought: 18%
→ Soybeans: 13%
→ Wheat: up to 20%
→ Cattle: 20% 🐄
🧪 Biofuel Mandates Incoming
The EPA will announce 2026–27 blending targets today. Industry groups want to raise biomass-based diesel to 5.25B gallons, but the final target may fall short. Ethanol and biodiesel markets are watching closely. ⛽
📉 Disappointing Export Sales
Corn, soybean, and wheat export sales all fell short. Soybeans hit a marketing-year low. 📦 Weak demand continues to weigh on prices.
👷‍♂️ Immigration Crackdown Hits Ag
An ICE raid in Nebraska led to over 70 detentions at a meat plant. Labor shortages are growing in ag-heavy states like California too. Over half of US crop workers are undocumented. 🌱
👉 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your market take!

Rug Pull: ADM Slashes Cash Soybean Bid Jun 12, 2025

Show notes

0:00 ADM Rug Pull
3:17 Kim Reynolds and Eminent Domain
4:39 US Weather
5:53 USDA Preview
8:46 Record Ethanol Production
10:00 Weaker Dollar?
11:30 US/China
🌱 Soybean Bids Crash in the Midwest!
Cash soybean prices took a nosedive in Illinois. 😳 ADM’s Decatur location slashed bids by 65¢ and flipped from July25 to Nov25 futures with a negative basis. Other processors quickly followed. ADM says they’ve got plenty of beans and expect a big crop 🌾.
🚫 Iowa Eminent Domain Bill Vetoed
Gov. Kim Reynolds vetoed a bill limiting eminent domain for carbon pipelines. Critics say she sided with big donors over landowners 💰🚜. The move angered Republicans and sparked calls for a special session. Will it happen? 🤔
🌧️ Corn Belt Weather Whiplash
The GFS outlook just flipped again! Wetter in the short term, but drier in the 8-14 day range ⛅. CropProphet pegs corn belt rain at 116% of normal early, then just 72% next week. Market? Still yawning 😴.
📊 USDA Report Incoming
Today’s WASDE 📉 drops at 11am CST. Traders expect lower US corn ending stocks due to higher exports. No big moves expected for soybeans or wheat. Watch for Brazil corn surprises 🌽👀.
🍻 Ethanol Production Hits Record High
US ethanol output surged to an all-time high last week 🚀. Stocks dropped to late-December levels, and margins improved 💵. Could this support corn prices?
💵 Paul Tudor Jones: USD to Slide?
Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones sees the US dollar falling 10% over the next year 📉. He cites a steeper yield curve and a possible dovish Fed under Trump’s next pick. The dollar index is already down nearly 8% YTD 😬.
🤝 New US-China Trade Deal
China will ship more rare earths & magnets ⚙️. In return, the US will ease some export controls and allow more Chinese students. But Trump’s 55% tariff on Chinese goods stays in place 📦🇨🇳. Final approval still pending!
👇 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
📢 Stay tuned for WASDE updates and more market analysis!

US and China Reach Deal + DRIER Corn Belt Forecast Jun 11, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US/China Deal
2:31 Drier Forecast, Iowa??
5:14 USDA Report Tomorrow
8:48 US/Mexico
9:57 John Deere, Right to Repair Stuff
📢 US-China Reach Trade Consensus!
After 20+ hours of talks in London, US and Chinese officials say they’ve struck a framework deal to implement the Geneva consensus! 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 China will accelerate rare earth exports, and the US is easing some export controls. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the deal adds “meat on the bones” of last month’s tariff truce. Next up: Trump and Xi review the agreement.
🌦 Corn Belt Turns Drier
The latest Euro and GFS models shifted drier for central and western Corn Belt states — especially Iowa. Forecast maps from CropProphet show how rainfall expectations dropped significantly overnight. Temps are also trending above normal into the 6–10 and 8–14 day periods. 🌡
📊 WASDE & Crop Production Report Coming!
USDA drops fresh data this Thursday at 11am CST! Traders expect a cut to corn ending stocks, driven by stronger exports. Not much change is expected for soybeans or wheat.
🛠 US-Mexico Steel Deal Close
US and Mexico are nearing a deal to reduce steel tariffs! A new quota system would allow tariff-free volumes based on past trade. Mexico—this year’s top US corn buyer—is calling the tariffs unjustified. 📉🌽
⚖️ FTC vs Deere Moves Forward
A federal judge says the FTC’s antitrust lawsuit against John Deere will proceed. The case centers on “right to repair” restrictions. Five US states are backing the FTC. Deere says the claims are vague and without merit. 🚜⚖️
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more grain market breakdowns! 💬📈
#GrainMarkets #CornBelt #TradeNews #WASDE #RightToRepair #USChina #USMexico #JohnDeere #CropForecast #AgNews 🌽📰

Why Did Corn Futures TUMBLE on Monday?? Jun 10, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn Tumbles
1:58 Too Much Rain for a Rally
6:24 Crop Progress & Conditions
9:36 Brazil Corn Update
11:04 US/China Talks
12:13 Grain Shipments
🌽 Corn Futures Drop Amid Bearish Weather & Export Concerns 🌧️📉
📉 Market Moves
Corn futures fell sharply on Monday!
• July '25 dropped 9¢ to ~$4.34
• Dec '25 dropped 11¢ to ~$4.38
Pressure came from a bearish US weather outlook and slowing export demand as Brazil’s second crop harvest ramps up. Private estimates peg fund net short positions at 125k contracts. 📊
🌦️ Weather Watch
Rain returns later this week for parts of SD, MN, IA & WI, with widespread moisture expected in the 5–10 day outlook. Over the last 14 days, Corn Belt rainfall hit 107% of normal. CropProphet data suggests the drought threat is shrinking—but remember, July is still critical for corn yield! 🌧️🌽
🚜 Crop Conditions
US corn: 71% good/excellent, up from 69%
Soybeans: 68% good/excellent, slightly better than last week
Winter wheat: 54% good/excellent, best since 2019
Spring wheat: 53% good/excellent, rising for the second week
🌎 Brazil Harvest Update
Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is off to the slowest start since 2021—only 1.9% complete. Excess rain and late planting continue to delay progress.
🤝 US-China Trade Talks
Talks extend into Day 2! Discussions center on export controls and rare earth minerals. The US may ease tech export restrictions in exchange for more mineral access from China. Officials described the mood as constructive. 🌐
🚢 Export Inspection Data
• Corn: 1.7 MMT—up 1% vs. last week, 24% YoY
• Soybeans: 547k MT—up 81% WoW, 134% YoY
• Wheat: 291k MT—down, but early in the marketing year
👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates!

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