Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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US Farm Bankruptcies on the Rise: Is Donald Trump to Blame?? Jul 24, 2025

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0:00 Farm Bankruptcies Rise
4:57 China Hog Reduction?
6:38 Heat Wave
10:17 North Dakota Wheat Tour
11:27 Ethanol Production

📉 🚨 Farm Bankruptcies Surge
Farm bankruptcies have jumped to their highest level since 2020 📈. With high interest rates, trade war aftershocks 🇨🇳🇺🇸, and slumping export demand, many growers are feeling the squeeze. Total US farm debt is set to hit a record $561.8 billion 💰. While USDA sees higher net income this year, it's largely thanks to government aid 🧾.
🐖 China Cuts Hog Herd & Soymeal Use
China is rebalancing its pork market amid a glut of hogs and falling prices 🐷⬇️. Officials are slashing sow numbers, limiting new capacity, and even pushing alternative protein sources like food waste, insects 🪳, and animal-based proteins 🐟. This is also part of China's move to reduce soybean meal use and lessen dependence on global markets.
🔍 Typical Chinese hog ration: 50–65% corn 🌽, 15–20% soymeal, 5–15% small grains, 5–10% bran/DDGs.
🔥 Corn Belt Heat Dome Persists
A brutal heat dome continues to roast the Corn Belt 🥵. Triple-digit heat indices and warm overnight lows are stressing crops across the region. Relief may not come until next week. Despite the heat, traders seem unfazed—thanks to an otherwise strong growing season 🌱.
🌾 North Dakota Wheat Tour: Mixed Yields
Crop scouts in southern ND pegged hard red spring wheat yields at 50 bpa, down slightly from last year but still above the 5-year avg. Northern fields averaged 47.1 bpa—again lower vs. 2023 but stronger than the 5-year norm. 🌾 Disease risk and wind damage were noted.
⛽ Ethanol Update: Output Slips, Stocks Build
US ethanol production dipped slightly last week, but stocks jumped to 24.44 million barrels 📦. Despite slower output, margins have improved 💹.

US/Japan Trade Deal, Corn Sweat, Coca-Cola Update Jul 23, 2025

Show notes

0:00 US/Japan Deal
3:00 Heat Wave, Corn Sweat
5:37 Wheat Sucks
7:52 Coca-Cola Update
8:53 US/China Update
11:12 Meme Stocks / M2
🎥 BIG TRADE DEALS, CORN SWEAT & MEME STOCKS! 🌽📈🇯🇵
🚨 President Trump just dropped a massive trade bombshell — TWO new international deals in one day!
🇯🇵 Japan Deal Highlights:
– 15% tariff on imports
– $550B Japanese investment in the US (Trump decides where it goes!)
– Big wins for US agriculture: 🚜 +75% rice purchases, +$8B in ag imports
– Expanded access for American cars, corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, pork & dairy!
🇵🇭 Philippines Deal:
– 19% export tariff to the US
– Details still emerging…
🔥 Meanwhile, it’s HOT out there—and “🌽 Corn Sweat” is making it worse!
A massive heat dome is punishing the eastern U.S., with humidity spiking in the Corn Belt right during pollination. Luckily, forecasts now show a drastic cooldown coming soon. 🌡️🌽
📊 Wheat rallies on smaller harvest expectations from Russia 🇷🇺, Ukraine 🇺🇦, and drought in Canada 🇨🇦.
– SRW & HRW wheat futures up
– Spring wheat climbs near $6.12/bu
🥤 Coca-Cola’s Cane Sugar Comeback?
– Trump praised Coke for ditching HFCS
– A new, premium cane sugar line may launch. 🍬
– But don’t expect big changes to corn demand just yet
🌏 China Trade Truce Extended?
– Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent heading to Sweden for talks
– 90-day tariff pause expires Aug. 12
– Topics: trade balance, oil imports from Russia/Iran, China’s economic reforms
💥 Meme Stocks Return!
– Opendoor & Kohl’s are the new GameStop & AMC
– Retail frenzy is back despite higher rates and no stimulus
– Many asset classes (stocks, real estate, farmland, BTC, gold) hovering near all-time highs 🚀💰
– Is it FOMO… or a bubble? 🫧

China to Grow Row Crops in Africa + 188 Corn Yield Talk Jul 22, 2025

Show notes

0:00 China/Africa
2:45 Row Crop Selloff
6:35 188 National Corn Yield??
8:40 Wheat
9:42 Monster Brazil Corn Crop
10:52 Fertilizer and Sanctions
12:34 Grain Shipments

🌍🇨🇳 China Targets Angola for Major Ag Expansion! 🌽🌱
A Chinese state-owned giant, Citic Ltd., is investing $250 million to build massive soybean and corn farms across 247,000 acres in Angola! 🚜 Roughly 60% of production will head to China, with the rest staying local. Angola’s soils are similar to Brazil’s Cerrado, making this a potential ag powerhouse with the right tech and investment. 🤖🌾
📦 TRADE + POLICY
China and the US have agreed on a framework to ease trade tensions... but no final deal yet. Meanwhile, Angola plans more ag deals with China, with an eye on exporting 500,000+ mt of food. Stay tuned for the geopolitics of grain! ⚖️🌐
🌧️📉 MARKETS MOVE ON WEATHER & TRADE
Corn and soybean futures slipped Monday as forecasts called for rain in the Corn Belt, muting concerns about upcoming heat. 🌡️ Wheat dropped too, pressured by Russian exports, but saw support from Bangladesh’s new U.S. wheat deal.
🌽 CROP CONDITIONS STRONG
Corn: 74% good/excellent—best since 2016! 🌟
Soybeans: 68% G/E—well above average but down slightly
Spring Wheat: Ratings fell again 🌾
Winter Wheat: 73% harvested—one of the slowest paces in a decade ⏳
🇧🇷 BRAZIL CORN OUTLOOK IMPROVES
AgRural raised Brazil's corn estimate to 136.3 MMT, citing better yields for the second crop. 🌽 Harvest is 55% done — still behind last year. Brazil’s crop is now seen 170 million bushels larger than USDA's latest figure. 🔼📈
🚫 FERTILIZER SUPPLY RISK?
Potential U.S. secondary sanctions on Russian exports could hit Latin America's fertilizer supply, especially Brazil and Mexico. Both nations are heavily dependent on Russian imports—a major risk to crops like corn and avocados. 🧪⚠️
🚢 EXPORTS: MIXED BAG
Corn: 983k mt — down 25% from last week 📉
Soybeans: 365k mt — up 141% from last week 🔼
Wheat: 732k mt — up 152% YoY 🚀

Dome of Doom!?!? Nah. Rain Makes Grain!! Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Dome of Doom
3:35 The Funds
6:07 Bangladesh Deal
7:29 China Soybean Imports
9:04 Stablecoin Bill
🔥 HEAT DOME BEARS DOWN ON THE CORN BELT! 🌽💥
🌡️ 🔥 Weather Watch: Dome of Doom Incoming!
A major heat wave is forecast to impact the Corn Belt starting Tuesday! A "heat dome" will bring extreme temps and humidity, with highs soaring to 95–105°F and heat indices well into the triple digits! 🥵 Overnight lows in the 70s offer little relief, stressing crops further. The good news? A slight cooldown may arrive by the weekend. ☁️🌬️
🌧️ 🌽 Grain Markets & Weather: Rain vs. Heat
Some say “rain makes grain,” but others worry that too much rain + heat could hurt yields in some areas. The dome may block rain for some, but precipitation around the edge looks adequate.
📉 📊 Fund Flows: Corn Buying, Soy Selling
"The Funds" cut their corn shorts last week! 🚜 CFTC data shows money managers bought 20K corn contracts, but sold 24K soybean contracts, flipping soybeans to net short for the first time since April. Funds also offloaded 5K SRW wheat.
🇧🇩 🌾 US Wheat Deal with Bangladesh
Bangladesh just signed a 5-year deal to import 700,000mt of US wheat annually 🌎👏—part of a broader effort to boost trade and avoid tariffs. While a positive headline, this move represents a small slice of Bangladesh's 7mmt/year wheat demand. Still, it’s a step in the right direction! 📦📜
🇨🇳 📦 China Soybean Imports Soar
China’s soybean imports hit a record high in June! 🚢 Brazil supplied 87% of total imports, while the US share rose 21% YoY. From Jan–June, Brazil’s shipments dropped 7.5%, while US volumes jumped 33%. Q3 imports should remain strong, but Q4 hinges on US-China trade talks. 🤝🇺🇸🇨🇳
💵 🪙 Stablecoin Shake-Up: GENIUS Act Signed
Trump just signed the first federal stablecoin law—the GENIUS Act 🧠💵. The law creates rules for US dollar-backed digital money (aka stablecoins) to reduce risk and boost global confidence. Supporters call it a “giant step” for crypto. Critics? Not so sure… 🤔⚖️

Soybean Rally and Midwest Heat Jul 18, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Intro
0:47 Soy Rally
3:05 Drought / Overnight Lows
10:30 Export Sales
13:07 Fertilizer Update
15:52 SAF Plant
18:35 S&P 500 Record
🎥 Soybeans Surge, Droughts Ease, and Fertilizer Wars Begin! 🌱💥📈
🔥 BIG moves in the grain markets this week! Here's what you need to know:
🌾 Soybean Rally 🚀
The Nov25 soybean contract jumped from $10.07 to around $10.40! Much of the rally is thanks to soaring soybean oil futures, which hit their best levels since Sept '23. 📊 Optimism around Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) is keeping the bulls active. 🌱 Corn and soybean oil futures are sharply higher too.
🌧️ Drought Monitor Update 🌎
Last week’s rains brought some relief! ⛈️
💧 Iowa, Illinois & Missouri received more than 200% of normal rainfall!
✔️ Drought conditions improved in:
Northern Illinois
Northeast Missouri
Southern Indiana
Parts of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota & Nebraska
Corn: 9% in drought
Soybeans: 7%
Winter wheat: 30%
Spring wheat: 36%
Cattle country: 15% 🐄
📉 Disappointing Export Sales
US export sales stumbled last week:
❌ Corn: Just 97,600 mt—a marketing year low 😬
❌ Soybeans: 271,900 mt—weak numbers 😕
✅ Wheat: 494,400 mt—down from last week but better than the 4-week average
🇷🇺 Russia Targets Fertilizer Expansion 🌍
Russia wants to grow its global fertilizer share from 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on BRICS nations 🌐
⛔️ EU tariffs are pushing Russian supply elsewhere
🧪 BRICS = nearly half of global fertilizer demand
✈️ Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Takes Off 🛫
The world’s first SAF plant is expected to start in Georgia by late Sept
💰 $200M LanzaJet facility will begin using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol (not 45Z eligible)
🇺🇸 US ethanol will be used later—once it meets the 50% GHG reduction threshold
🛢️ LanzaJet is pushing to lower the threshold to 30% for more flexibility
📈 Stock Market Soars 📊
The S&P 500 hit a record high!
🛍️ Strong retail sales
📉 Declining jobless claims
💵 Stablecoin bill passed
💲 US dollar on fire 🔥
🏦 Rate cuts still expected despite Powell uncertainty
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE!
🔔 Stay updated on everything from beans to the big board!

Trump & Coca-Cola: How Much Corn is Used for High-Fructose Corn Syrup?? Jul 17, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Trump and Coke
3:17 Soybean Rally
4:41 US Weather
8:23 US/China Tensions Ease
9:37 Ethanol Production
10:28 Trump and Powell
📢 BIG Changes Coming to Coca-Cola? Trump Says So! 🥤🇺🇸
According to President Trump, Coca-Cola may soon ditch high-fructose corn syrup and switch to real cane sugar in U.S. products! 🌽❌➡️🍬 Trump praised the move in a post on Truth Social, tying it to his broader push to reduce processed ingredients in the American food supply. But... Coke hasn’t confirmed anything yet. 🤔
🌎 Coke already uses cane sugar in places like Mexico and the UK, so could the U.S. be next?
💡 Fun fact: About 410 million bushels of U.S. corn went to HFCS in 2023—that's 2.8% of total corn demand!
🌱 MARKET MOVERS 💰
📈 Soybeans surged nearly 19 cents on Wednesday amid fresh export demand speculation—possibly China!
🌽 Corn futures also rose 4 cents on renewed optimism and trade progress with Indonesia.
🌦️ WET WEATHER ALERT!
CropProphet sees 142% of normal rainfall across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, but things may dry out during the 8–14 day window 🌧️➡️☀️.
⚠️ Watch for hot and humid nights in the eastern Corn Belt—could be a problem!
🕊️ TRUMP SOFTENS ON CHINA?
Trump is now seeking short-term deals with China and a possible meeting with President Xi. The pivot has sparked internal debate, especially after easing chip restrictions on Nvidia 💻🧠.
🍺 ETHANOL WATCH
🛢️ Weekly U.S. ethanol production ticked up to 1.09M barrels/day, but still trails last year. Stocks fell for a third straight week. Margins? Still strong 💪
🏛️ TRUMP VS. POWELL?
Despite rumors, Trump says he won’t fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell—unless there’s fraud. Still, he's calling for a massive 3-point rate cut and slammed the Fed’s pricey HQ renovation. 💸📉

Joe's Stupid Theory About Corn Prices and Inflation Jul 16, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Stupid Theory
4:47 Corn Belt Rain
7:48 Soybean Crush
9:13 Indonesia Trade Deal
10:53 Brazil Tariffs and Beef Imports
🔥 Inflation Rises, Tariffs Bite, and Weather Heats Up! 🌽💰🌦️
Hey everyone! In today’s update, we’re tracking the latest market movers—from soaring inflation to shifting weather and big-time trade news. Let’s dive in! 👇
📈 🔥 Inflation Hits a 5-Month High
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in June—marking the biggest jump since February. Annual inflation ticked up to 2.7% 📊. Tariff-sensitive goods like clothing and appliances saw the sharpest increases, suggesting tariffs may be fueling price pressures. Trump wasted no time calling for Fed rate cuts… again.
🌦️ 🌽 Rain Watch: Big Totals Incoming
Rain is moving through parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas this morning, with 1–2" expected over much of the Corn Belt in the next 5 days. Some areas could top 3" over the 10-day! Forecasts are calling for near-normal temps this week, but the extended outlook turns hot! 🔥
🫘 NOPA Crush Record!
June soybean crush came in at 185.71 million bushels—a record for the month 📉🛢️. Oil stocks fell to their lowest June level since 2004, dropping below trade estimates.
🤝 Indonesia Strikes a Deal 🇮🇩
Trump finalized a tariff deal with Indonesia: 🇺🇸 ag exports head in tariff-free, while 🇮🇩 exports face a 19% duty. Indonesia will buy $4.5B in US ag goods, including wheat, soybeans, soymeal, and dairy 🧀. See the Top 10 wheat & meal importer charts to understand the impact 📈🌾.
🥩 Beef Battles: Brazil Tariff Incoming
Starting August 1, Brazilian beef faces a 50% US tariff 🐄💥. Brazilian meatpackers are already scaling back cattle buying. With the US cattle herd at a 70-year low, this could mean tighter beef supplies ahead. Brazil sent $1.4B in beef to the US last year—nearly a quarter of our imports.

Corn Reverses to the Upside: Possible Targets?? Jul 15, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn Reversal
2:31 Corn/Soybean Ratings are Strong
6:06 More Corn Belt Rain
8:57 Brazil Corn Update
10:30 Grain Shipments
11:27 Bitcoin
🌽 Corn Pops Higher!
Corn futures posted an upside reversal on Monday! 📈 The Dec25 contract hit new life-of-contract lows before rallying nearly 6 cents. Short covering and bargain buying helped lift the market—but gains were limited by favorable weather and expectations for a record-large crop. Traders remain cautious as President Trump steps up tariff threats.
🌱 Crop Conditions Remain Strong 💪
✅ US corn: 74% good-to-excellent—best for the week since 2016!
✅ US soybeans: 70% good-to-excellent—also second best in a decade!
Only 5% of each crop is rated poor to very poor. That’s bullish for yield potential!
🌾 Wheat Update 🚜
🌱 Spring wheat: 54% good-to-excellent (up from 50% last week).
🧊 Winter wheat harvest: 63% complete, still running slightly behind average and much slower than last year.
🌧️ Rain Returns + Heat on Deck ☀️
The Corn Belt is wet again this week with widespread rainfall expected in the 5-day and 5-10 day windows. 🌦️
⚠️ But look out! CropProphet says the 8–14 day outlook shows temps averaging +4.3°F above normal.
🔥 Heat could return as a key market factor.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Harvest Lagging 🐢
Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is just 40% complete—way behind last year’s 74% pace. Despite delays, both USDA and Conab still forecast a record-large 132mmt crop.
📉 Largest weekly harvest gain so far this season—but still playing catch-up.
🚢 Exports Sluggish 📦
👀 Corn: 1.3mmt inspected last week (down 18% WoW).
🥜 Soybeans: Weak at just 147,045mt (down 63% WoW).
🌾 Wheat: Better, near top end of expectations at 439,533mt.
₿ Bitcoin Blasts Higher! 🚀
Bitcoin surged 3.4% on Monday to hit a new all-time high of $123,205 💰 before cooling off.
🧠 "Crypto Week" is here—Congress debates 3 major crypto bills.
💸 $2.7B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs last week—fifth-best inflow on record.
📈 Year-to-date: +30%. After doubling in 2024, BTC is still running hot.
👇 Hit that like button, leave a comment with your market thoughts, and don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates! 🔔
#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Bitcoin #GrainMarkets #Crypto #Weather #Farming #Commodities #Agriculture 🌽🧑‍🌾📊

Too Much Rain in July?? Is That Even Possible?? (Corn Crop) Jul 14, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Too Much Rain??
4:03 USDA Report
8:15 Tariff News
9:54 The Funds
10:45 Flash Sale

🎯 WEEKEND GRAIN WRAP-UP: Big Rains, Lower Stocks & New Tariffs! 🌽☔📉
🔥 What a weekend! Here’s what’s moving the markets:
🌧️ Weather Watch
Substantial rainfall soaked much of the US Corn Belt this weekend!
💦 Best totals: Iowa, Illinois, northeast Missouri & southern Wisconsin
🌦️ Scattered rains: Eastern Corn Belt
📅 Forecast: More rain over the next 5–10 days
🌡️ Temps: Near-normal now, but above-normal coming in the 8–14 day outlook
📉 USDA Report Recap
Corn futures fell Friday… despite a friendly USDA update:
📦 Ending stocks cut to 1.34B bu—lowest in 4 years!
🚢 Record export forecast at 2.75B bu
🌽 2025/26 corn production trimmed to 15.7B bu (still record high)
🌱 Soybean crop adjusted to 4.34B bu
📏 Yields? Still unchanged... but the market might be pricing in much higher yields already 🤔
🇺🇸 Tariff Trouble
President Trump is back with more tariffs:
📆 Starting August 1: 30% tariff on goods from Mexico & EU
⚙️ Possible exemptions for companies that move manufacturing to the US
⚠️ Retaliation? Trump says any response tariffs will be added on top
🌍 EU & Mexico = 1/3 of total US imports
🇲🇽 Mexico = #1 buyer of US corn
🇪🇺 The EU is the #2 buyer of US soybeans and #5 of US corn
💰 Money Flow: Fund Activity
🟢 Corn: Funds net buyers of 10k contracts (1st time in 6 weeks!)
🔴 Soybeans: Net sellers of 7k
🟢 SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k
📊 Check out the Fund Tracker charts below!
🫘 Flash Sale Alert!
🇲🇽 Mexico booked 219,900mt (8M bu) of new crop soybeans for 2025/26
📈 New crop soybean sales are already 4% ahead of USDA’s target!
👇 Hit LIKE if you enjoy these updates, and don’t forget to SUBSCRIBE for more grain market insights!
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are we underestimating this corn yield?

Joe is a Coward, Rain in Northern Illinois Jul 11, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Non-Drought and Illinois Rain
6:36 USDA Preview
14:50 Export Sales
17:42 CONAB
20:21 USDA Secretary Mackenzie
24:07 Flash Sale

🌾 USDA Report Today
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report at 11:00am CST.
📉 July rarely brings yield changes, so traders will focus on demand.
Corn export pace could lead to higher old-crop exports—but lower feed demand might offset it.
🌍 Global balance sheet adjustments also likely.

🌧️ Drought Monitor Update
Rain helped drought in western Missouri, southwest Iowa & northern Minnesota.
🌾 But conditions worsened in central/northern Illinois & Michigan.
⚠️ New drought concerns in western Ohio, southern Indiana & northern Kentucky.
High Plains: Nebraska improved, but drought deepened in northeast North Dakota, central South Dakota, & western Kansas. US areas in drought:
🌽 Corn 12% | 🌱 Soybeans 9% | 🌾 Winter Wheat 26% | 🌱 Spring Wheat 35% | 🐄 Cattle 16%

📈 Export Sales Strong
Corn sales surged to 1.3mmt (50mil bu), 70% above the 4-week average—Mexico led buying.
Soybeans at 503,000mt (18mil bu), up 9% w/w; unknown destinations were top buyers.
Wheat at 567,800mt (21mil bu), slightly down w/w but 37% above the 4-week average; South Korea led demand.

🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Crop Record
Conab forecasts corn at 132mmt—up 2.9% from last month & 14.3% higher than last season.
🌽 Boost driven by a strong second crop (+16%).
Corn exports raised to 36mmt (+6%).
Slight cut to soybean forecast: now 169.5mmt, still up 14.7% vs last season.

🐄 Feeder Cattle Imports Halted
USDA suspended Mexican feeder cattle imports after a new screwworm case, just 370 miles south of the border.
🇲🇽 Mexican President Sheinbaum called it an overreaction.
Imports had resumed only Monday at an Arizona port after a May closure.
YTD imports through April were 193,000 head, down ~60% from last year.

🚢 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 110,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26.
🌽 New crop corn sales are off to a strong start—the third best since 2020/21.

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