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    Business

    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

    Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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    Copyright: ยฉ 2023 Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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    Latest Episodes:
    Stop, Hammer Time! Corn Futures Shrug Off the 3 Handle Aug 07, 2025
    Show notes

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
    Apple Podcasts
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    Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

    0:00 Hammer Time (Corn Pattern)
    3:15 Wheat Update
    5:03 Soybean Update
    7:08 New COVID Strain
    8:57 Mosaic and Fertilizer
    11:02 Ethanol Production

    ๐ŸŒฝ Corn Cracks $4! Rain, Record Yields & Farmer Selling ๐ŸŒง๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰
    Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff โ€” this weekโ€™s update is packed with price moves, trade chatter, and market-moving headlines! Letโ€™s dig in๐Ÿ‘‡
    ๐ŸŒฆ๏ธ ๐ŸŒฝ Corn Futures Dip Below $4!
    The Dec '25 corn contract dipped under $4 for the first time ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
    โžก๏ธ Rains across the Corn Belt ๐ŸŒง๏ธ
    โžก๏ธ Lofty private yield estimates ๐Ÿ“ˆ
    โžก๏ธ Weak Sep/Dec spread ๐Ÿ˜ตโ€๐Ÿ’ซ (farmer "puke" anyone?)
    โžก๏ธ Record Brazil crop weighs on global values ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
    โš ๏ธ USDA report on deck Tuesday โ€” average guess is 184.2bpa vs 181
    ๐ŸŒพ Wheat & Soybeans Stay Weak
    ๐ŸŸค Sep โ€™25 SRW wheat hit $5.04, lowest since May
    ๐ŸŸก Nov โ€™25 soybeans near $9.85 after meal-led selloff
    ๐ŸŒŽ Big global supplies + soft demand = headwinds ๐Ÿšซ
    ๐Ÿฆ  New COVID Variantโ€ฆ Again?
    A new strain (XFG) is spreading.
    โžก๏ธ Third most common in the US
    โžก๏ธ No big red flags ๐Ÿšซ
    ๐Ÿ’ญ Worth watchingโ€ฆ remember 2020?
    ๐Ÿงช Fertilizer Falters: Mosaic Slides 13%
    Mosaic missed earnings and shares tanked ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tariffs + delayed maintenance + lower crop prices = ๐Ÿ’ธ
    ๐Ÿ“‰ US phosphate/potash imports down 20% YTD
    ๐Ÿบ Ethanol Update: More Efficient Than Ever
    ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Weekly output: 1.08mil bpd
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Stocks fell to 23.76mil barrels
    ๐Ÿ’ฐ Margins improved
    ๐ŸŒฝ One bushel = 3+ gallons of ethanol today vs. 2.8 in 2015!
    ๐Ÿ“Š ๐Ÿ–ผ๏ธ See all the charts below:
    โ€ข Monthly SRW Wheat ๐Ÿ“‰
    โ€ข Stocks/Use Ratios
    โ€ข Ethanol Efficiency Gains
    ๐Ÿ‘ Donโ€™t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your take in the comments!
    ๐Ÿ“ฌ Stay tunedโ€”Tuesdayโ€™s USDA report could move markets in a big way!
    #corn #soybeans #wheat #ethanol #fertilizer #covid #usda #grainmarkets #trading #farming #agriculture #commodities #mosaic #StoneX #JoshLinville


    Corn Belt Heat Wave - Nobody Cares Aug 06, 2025
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    0:00 Joe's Resting B Face
    1:30 Corn Belt Heat Wave
    3:28 Argy Meal to China
    5:08 ADM Stock Rises
    7:47 Farmer Sentiment
    9:20 Big Ukraine Crops
    10:39 Corn Flash
    ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ”ฅ Heat, Trade, and Biofuels โ€“ Big Moves in Ag This Week! ๐ŸŒŽ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    Hey farmers, traders, and ag market watchers! ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ“ˆ This weekโ€™s update is packed with key developments you wonโ€™t want to miss! Letโ€™s break it down โฌ‡๏ธ
    ๐ŸŒก๏ธ โ˜€๏ธ Heat Wave Hits the Corn Belt!
    A two-week scorcher is headed for the Corn Belt! CropProphet forecasts temps 3โ€“4ยฐF above normal, with near-normal rain at first, then slightly drier. Some say warm weather during grain fill can help corn and soybean yieldsโ€”if moisture holds up. What do you think? ๐Ÿค”
    ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐ŸŒฑ China Buys Big from Argentina
    Chinaโ€™s diversifying! They've now bought 3 cargos of ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท soybean meal (via Bunge), plus approved the first-ever Argentine corn shipment! ๐Ÿ“ฆ And with a $900M letter of intent signed for soy, corn, and oil... trade ties are heating up like the weather! ๐Ÿ”ฅ
    ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ ADM Sees Biofuel Boom Ahead ๐Ÿšœ
    Despite earlier scandals, ADM is riding high ๐Ÿ“ˆโ€”shares up 15% YTD. They expect higher biofuel mandates to fuel future profits, especially in Q4. Clarity in policy = bullish long term?
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Farmer Sentiment Slips ๐Ÿ˜•
    The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in July, with both present and future outlooks lower. But there's a silver lining: ๐ŸŒ optimism about trade is up, and most believe the US is heading in the right direction.
    ๐ŸŒพ Ukraine Crop Outlook Improves ๐ŸŒ
    Ukrainian wheat and corn production could exceed forecasts if weather holds. With grain production near 56mmt and exports projected to hit 40mmt, winter wheat acres are set to rise ๐Ÿšœ.
    ๐Ÿšจ USDA Flash Sale (Kind ofโ€ฆ)
    USDA reported a flash soybean saleโ€”but wait! Correction: it was actually corn! ๐Ÿ˜… This is the second correction in two weeks. Sale totals 5 mil bushels to unknown buyers for 2025/26.
    ๐Ÿ‘ If you enjoy honest, independent ag updates, smash that LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and join the convo below! Your support keeps us going ๐Ÿ™Œ


    HUGE Corn Yield Estimate from StoneX - Fair or Foul?? Aug 05, 2025
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    0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!
    1:01 StoneX Estimates
    5:22 Corn Selloff
    7:05 Crop Conditions
    11:37 Brazil Harvest
    12:56 Strong Shipments
    ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ“Š StoneX Sees RECORD Corn Yield! Soybeans Also Strong ๐Ÿ’ช
    ๐Ÿ‘€ A well-followed private group, StoneX, just dropped massive US crop estimates based on their customer surveyโ€ฆ and the numbers are way above USDAโ€™s latest!
    ๐ŸŒฝ Corn Yield:
    ๐Ÿ”น 188.1 bpa vs. USDAโ€™s 181.0
    ๐Ÿ”น 16.32B bushels vs. USDAโ€™s 15.71B
    ๐ŸŒฑ Soybean Yield:
    ๐Ÿ”น 53.6 bpa vs. USDAโ€™s 52.5
    ๐Ÿ”น 4.43B bushels vs. USDAโ€™s 4.34B
    These estimates are based on input from StoneXโ€™s grain-buying customers & agronomists ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ“‹
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Market Reaction:
    Corn futures sank again on Monday, with the Dec25 contract hitting a new life-of-contract low at $4.07/bu. Favorable US weather ๐ŸŒค๏ธ and a record Brazilian crop ๐ŸŒŽ๐ŸŒฝ are dragging prices down.
    ๐ŸŒพ Crop Conditions:
    โœ… US Corn: 73% G/E โ€“ 2nd best in a decade!
    โœ… US Soybeans: 69% G/E โ€“ Highest since 2020
    ๐Ÿ“‰ US Spring Wheat: 48% G/E โ€“ down for a 3rd straight week
    ๐Ÿšœ Winter Wheat: 86% harvested and nearly wrapped up
    ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil Corn Harvest:
    โณ Behind last yearโ€™s pace, but picking up fast!
    ๐Ÿ“ฆ Total corn crop pegged at a record 136.3mmt
    ๐Ÿšข Export Inspections:
    ๐Ÿ”ธ Corn: 1.2mmt (๐Ÿ“‰ 21% WoW)
    ๐Ÿ”ธ Soybeans: 612k mt (๐Ÿ“ˆ 130% YoY)
    ๐Ÿ”ธ Wheat: 599k mt (๐Ÿ“ˆ 107% WoW)
    ๐Ÿ‘‡ Drop your thoughts in the comments, and donโ€™t forget to like ๐Ÿ‘, subscribe ๐Ÿ””, and share if this info helps you stay ahead of the market!
    #Corn #Soybeans #GrainMarkets #CropUpdate #StoneX #Futures #USDA #Wheat #AgNews #FarmEconomics ๐ŸŒพ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ“ˆ


    Daily Dose of Depressing Grain Market News with Joe & Mackenzie Aug 04, 2025
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    0:00 Depressing News
    0:40 The Funds are Short
    2:52 Heat Wave
    4:15 US/China Update
    5:56 Meal Update
    7:41 Wheat
    8:42 Flash Sales

    ๐Ÿ”ฅ FUND MOVES, HEAT WAVES & TRADE TALK! ๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒก๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰
    Here's what you need to know this week in grains, weather, and global trade! ๐Ÿ‘‡
    ๐Ÿ“Š ๐Ÿง  Fund Flows:
    โ€œThe Fundsโ€ slightly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week. CFTC data showed:
    Net sellers of just 181 corn contracts ๐Ÿ“‰
    Heavy net sellers of 34,000 soybean contracts ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
    Largest soybean short since April ๐Ÿซ˜
    Sold 13,000 SRW wheat contracts ๐ŸŒพ
    ๐ŸŒž ๐Ÿ”ฅ Heat Building in the Corn Belt:
    Our friends at CropProphet see above-normal temps on the way:
    ๐Ÿ“… 7-day: +2ยฐF above normal
    ๐Ÿ“… 8โ€“14 day: +3.8ยฐF above normal
    ๐ŸŒง๏ธ Slightly below-normal rainfall
    ๐Ÿค US-China Trade Talks Back On?
    Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says heโ€™s โ€œoptimisticโ€ about a deal โœ๏ธ
    ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Officials met in Stockholm last week
    ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ Deadline: August 12
    ๐Ÿ‘‰ But so far, new crop US soybean sales are the worst since 2005... zero Chinese purchases ๐Ÿ˜ณ
    ๐ŸŒŽ China Buys Argentine Meal Again
    China booked another 30,000mt of Argentine soybean meal ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท
    Thatโ€™s the 3rd deal since June after years of no activity
    ๐Ÿ’ฐ Why? Cheaper prices thanks to lower Argentine export taxes (from 31% โ†’ 24.5%)
    ๐Ÿšข Wheat Export Slowdown
    Russia, Ukraine, and the EU โ€” who make up nearly 50% of global wheat exports โ€” are off to a slow start:
    Russian exports down 30% YoY ๐Ÿ“‰
    Ukraine shipping just 1/3 of last yearโ€™s volume
    Spot prices at Black Sea ports +8% in July
    ๐Ÿ“‰ All 3 US wheat futures contracts just hit life-of-contract lows
    ๐ŸŒฝ Flash Sales!
    USDA reported two corn flash sales Friday:
    352,160mt (14 million bushels) to unknown destinations for 25/26
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Stock Market Slump
    Markets tumbled Friday after weak job data:
    Dow -1.2%
    S&P -1.6%
    Nasdaq -2.2%
    ๐Ÿ‘Ž Only 73,000 jobs added vs. 100k expected
    ๐Ÿ‘€ Fed rate cut odds for September just went up
    ๐Ÿงจ Trump tariffs also added pressure
    ๐Ÿ‘ Like, ๐Ÿ’ฌ comment, and ๐Ÿ”” subscribe for more market updates every week!


    Worst Soybean Sales in 20 Years + Joe/Matt Corn Yield Bet Aug 01, 2025
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    0:00 Corn Yield Bet
    3:31 Export Sales
    10:41 Flash Sales
    11:50 Wet July
    15:26 Cattle Selloff
    20:11 US Dollar Rally

    ๐ŸŽฏ US Export Sales Slide While New Crop Corn Surges ๐Ÿš€ | Drought Relief & Cattle Market Shakeup ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Grains in Motion!
    US corn export sales dropped 47% from last week, landing at just 340,900mt (13 mil bushels). But donโ€™t panicโ€”new crop corn crushed expectations with 1.9mmt (74 mil bushels) in sales! ๐Ÿ™Œ
    ๐ŸŒฑ Soybean bulls got a boost too! Net sales hit 349,200mt, exceeding estimates and climbing from last week. New crop beans came in strong at 429,500mt (16 mil bushels).
    ๐ŸŒพ Wheat took a step backโ€”592,100mt in sales, down 17%, but still matching the 4-week average.
    ๐Ÿšจ Flash Sales Frenzy!
    The USDA reported a wave of flash sales Thursday:
    ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด 100k mt corn to Colombia
    ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท 140k mt corn to South Korea
    โ“ 136k mt corn to unknown destinations
    ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ 100k mt of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria
    ๐Ÿ“ฆ All for 2025/26 delivery!
    ๐ŸŒง๏ธ Corn Belt Drought Fades
    The latest USDA Drought Monitor brought good news:
    โœ… Conditions improved in MN, IA, IL & IN
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Drought in the Corn Belt is now at just 2.4%โ€”down from 32% earlier this year!
    ๐Ÿ“Œ National Drought Stats:
    โ€ข Corn: 7% ๐ŸŒฝ
    โ€ข Soybeans: 5% ๐ŸŒฑ
    โ€ข Winter Wheat: 30% โ„๏ธ
    โ€ข Spring Wheat: 38% ๐ŸŒพ
    โ€ข Cattle: 14% ๐Ÿ„
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Cattle Collapse or Just a Blip?
    ๐Ÿ‚ After new all-time highs, cattle futures got clobbered Thursdayโ€”feeder contracts hit limit down ๐Ÿ“‰
    Some fear the top is in, but remember: this market has bounced back before. With tight supplies & strong beef demand, fundamentals still look solid ๐Ÿ’ช
    ๐Ÿ’ต Dollar Roars in July
    The US Dollar Index posted a 5% gain in Julyโ€”its best month since Dec 2024! ๐Ÿ’น
    โœ… Resilient economy
    โœ… Hawkish Fed
    โœ… Easing trade tensions
    But beware: tariffs & political pressure could shake things up soon...
    ๐Ÿ‘ Like, subscribe & comment your take on export trends, cattle futures, or the dollarโ€™s next move!
    #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Cattle #USDollar #DroughtUpdate #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarketing #FarmNews ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“ˆ


    120 MILLION Acres of Soybeans in Brazil Jul 31, 2025
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    0:00 120mil Soybean Acres
    3:38 Soybean Selloff
    4:51 Excessive Rain?
    7:50 Ethanol Production
    8:58 GDP and the Haters
    ๐ŸŒฑ Brazil's Monster Soy Crop & Market Fallout! ๐ŸŒŽ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    ๐Ÿšจ Big headlines this week from Brazil! DATAGRO pegs their next soybean crop at a jaw-dropping 182.9 MMT ๐Ÿคฏโ€”well above USDAโ€™s 175 MMT estimate. Thatโ€™s +8.2% from last yearโ€™s record. ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐ŸŒฑ Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 120+ million soybean acres, dwarfing the 82.5 million in the U.S. Corn crop? Also record-setting at 140.9 MMT, says DATAGRO. ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐ŸŒฝ
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Soybean futures keep sliding for a fourth straight day. November 2025 dropped nearly 14 cents to $9.96, the lowest since April. Why? ๐Ÿ‘‰ Favorable weather ๐ŸŒง๏ธ, weak Chinese demand ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ, and bearish momentum across the soy complex. Even soybean meal hit contract lows. Ouch. ๐Ÿ›‘
    ๐ŸŒง๏ธ Rain, rain, and more rain in parts of the Corn Belt! Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Illinois have been soakedโ€”over 4 inches in just 7 days. Some Iowa counties have seen 12+ inches in the past month! Drier days are expected, but more rain may return next week. โ˜๏ธ๐ŸŒฆ๏ธ
    โ›ฝ Ethanol update: Weekly U.S. production hit 1.1 million barrels/day, +1.7% on the week. Stocks rose to 24.7 million barrels, staying well above seasonal norms. Margins? Still solid, per Reuters. ๐Ÿ’ต๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ
    ๐Ÿ“Š The U.S. economy is on fire ๐Ÿ”ฅ! Q2 GDP came in at +3.0%, smashing expectations. The big driver? Imports plunged 30% year-over-yearโ€”thanks, tariffs. ๐Ÿ›๏ธ Fed held rates steady, but the dollar surged, notching its biggest 5-day rally since 2022! ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

    ๐Ÿ‘‡ Drop your thoughts in the comments & donโ€™t forget to like, subscribe, and share if you enjoy staying ahead of the ag game! ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ“ฐ๐Ÿ’ฌ


    Derecho Update + More Direct Farm Payments?? Jul 30, 2025
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    ๐ŸŽฅ Severe Storms Slam Midwest + Market Moves & China Soy Woes โšก๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ’ผ
    Hey everyone! Big weather and market headlines to cover today โ€” let's get into it ๐Ÿ‘‡
    0:00 Derecho Update
    3:46 Corn and Soybean Price Action
    5:45 Govt Payments??
    8:26 Soy Demand Problems (China)
    9:30 US/China Talks
    10:51 Oil Refiners
    ๐ŸŒช๏ธ Midwest Storms Cause Chaos
    Severe storms tore through the Upper Midwest on Monday night with wind gusts up to 130 mph reported from eastern South Dakota to western Wisconsin. Crops like sorghum sudan and corn were knocked flat in spots, and a South Dakota dairy suffered major structural damage. Tornadoes and large hail also hit parts of Iowa and South Dakota. Was it a derecho? Still unclear. ๐Ÿค”
    ๐Ÿ’จ CropProphet has a killer wind speed map by county (see below). Despite the destruction, crop damage appears minimal based on early reports. Remember: the 2023 derecho didnโ€™t crush yields either. ๐ŸŒพ
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Markets Take Another Hit
    Corn and soybean futures were down for the 3rd straight session:
    Dec25 Corn: โฌ‡๏ธ 3ยข to $4.11/bu
    Nov25 Soybeans: โฌ‡๏ธ 2ยข to $10.10/bu
    Wheat also dropped:
    Dec25 SRW: โฌ‡๏ธ 9ยข to $5.50/bu
    Dec25 HRW: โฌ‡๏ธ 7ยข to $5.40/bu
    Cooler weather + rain = bearish sentiment ๐Ÿ“‰๐ŸŒง๏ธ
    ๐Ÿ– China Soybean Demand Weakens
    Chinaโ€™s Q4 soy demand looks soft due to:
    Record early-year imports
    Weak feed sector demand
    Crushing margins still ugly ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
    Some plants have shut down for lack of storage. And still โ€” no US new crop soy sales to China yet. Argentina meal is doing the heavy lifting. ๐Ÿ“Š
    ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ US-China Trade Talks Continue
    Trade talks in Stockholm ended without a new tariff truce agreement, but more discussions are planned. Deadline: August 12. Will Trump approve an extension? Decision coming soon. ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ•ฐ๏ธ
    ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ Refiners vs. Biofuels
    The AFPM is fighting Trumpโ€™s push to boost ethanol mandates to E15, saying it could cost refiners $70 billion. They're also blaming proposed EPA rules for refinery shutdowns โ€” but the real issue may be declining gasoline demand. โ›ฝ๐Ÿ“‰
    ๐Ÿ‘ Like, ๐Ÿ’ฌ comment, and ๐Ÿ”” subscribe for more ag + market updates every week!
    #StormDamage #GrainMarkets #ChinaSoy #Derecho #Ethanol #TradeTalks #AgNews #CornBelt #Soybeans #FarmingNews #TrumpTariffs


    Don't Call it a Derecho... But was there Crop Damage?? Jul 29, 2025
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    0:00 Wind Event
    3:00 Crop Conditions
    7:38 Big Brazil Crop
    8:40 US/China Update
    10:13 US Dollar
    11:08 Grain Shipments
    11:52 Flash Sales

    ๐ŸŒช๏ธ Severe Storms Rip Through the Northern Corn Belt ๐ŸŒฝโšก
    Severe thunderstorms powered by extreme heat and humidity blasted across the Northern Plains and into the northern Corn Belt on Monday evening. ๐Ÿ’จ Wind gusts reached an insane 134 mph in northern Iowa, with tornadoes reported in South Dakota and Iowa. Early Tuesday, storms continued in eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and western Illinoisโ€”though the worst winds have calmed. โš ๏ธ Widespread power outages were reported.
    ๐Ÿ“ See storm maps below!
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Crop Condition Update ๐ŸŒฑ
    ๐Ÿ”น Corn: 73% rated good to excellentโ€”slightly down from last week but still the 2nd best in a decade!
    ๐Ÿ”น Soybeans: 70% rated good to excellent, the best for this time since 2020!
    ๐Ÿ”น Spring Wheat: Declines again this weekโ€”only 49% rated good to excellent.
    ๐Ÿ”น Winter Wheat: 80% harvested nationwide; nearly complete in TX, OK, KS.
    ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazilโ€™s Corn Harvest Lags but Outlook Grows ๐ŸŒฝ
    Brazilโ€™s 2nd crop corn harvest is behind last yearโ€”just 68% harvested vs. 91% this time last year. Despite delays, AgRural raised their total corn production estimate to a record 136.3mmt!
    ๐Ÿšœ Dry weather helped boost weekly harvest pace.
    ๐Ÿค US-China Trade Talks Continue in Stockholm ๐Ÿฅข
    Officials met for over 5 hours Mondayโ€”no deal yet, but a 90-day truce extension is likely. The US paused some tech export controls to support talks.
    ๐Ÿ” No new Chinese soybean buys yet, but the market expects them soon.
    ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China could account for ~19% of US soybean demand this year.
    ๐Ÿ’ต US Dollar Surges on Trade Optimism ๐Ÿ“ˆ
    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.8% on Mondayโ€”its biggest move since May. The rally was fueled by the new US-EU trade deal and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady this week.
    ๐Ÿšข US Export Inspections Surprise to the Upside ๐Ÿ“ฆ
    โœ”๏ธ Corn: 1.5mmt inspectedโ€”+55% vs. last week
    โœ”๏ธ Soybeans: 409,714mtโ€”near the high end of estimates
    โŒ Wheat: 288,793mtโ€”well below expectations
    ๐Ÿ“ข Flash Sales Announced! ๐Ÿ’ผ
    ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ Mondayโ€™s USDA report showed big corn sales:
    ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ 225,000mt to Mexico (25/26 MY)
    โ“ 229,000mt to unknown (35k for 24/25, 194k for 25/26)
    ๐Ÿ’ฐ Markets watching closely as new crop sales ramp up.
    ๐Ÿ“Œ Donโ€™t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
    ๐Ÿง  Stay informed, stay ahead. More weather, markets, and updates coming your way!
    #GrainMarkets #CornBelt #CropConditions #Soybeans #Wheat #USDA


    Trade Deals Don't Matter because the Crop is Huge Jul 28, 2025
    Show notes

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
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    0:00 US Weather, Giant Crop
    2:42 US/EU Trade Deal
    4:13 US and China Talks
    8:05 The Funds
    8:53 Cattle on Feed
    11:13 Argentina Taxes
    12:09 China Heat
    13:27 Flash Sales
    ๐ŸŒฝ Corn Belt Rain & Cooldown Incoming! ๐ŸŒง๏ธ๐ŸŒฌ๏ธ
    Rain is sweeping across the Central US Corn Belt this morning as a major system rolls through Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Weekend totals were best in SE Iowa, central IL, southern MN, northern IN, and OH. The 7-day forecast stays wet, and after two more hot days, a cool front arrives by Wednesday with temps 5โ€“12ยฐF below normal! A cooler August during grain fill? Thatโ€™s typically bullish for yields... and bearish for markets. ๐ŸŒก๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰
    ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Big USโ€“EU Trade Deal Signed!
    The US and EU reached a major trade agreement Sunday. Starting Friday:
    ๐Ÿ”น 15% tariff on EU imports
    ๐Ÿ”น EU to invest $600B in the US
    ๐Ÿ”น EU to buy $750B in US energy
    ๐Ÿ”น No new US tariffs on exports
    President Trump says the deal will benefit US agriculture, but specifics are TBD. The EU is already the #4 buyer of US ag goods, accounting for $12.8B in 2024. ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿšข
    ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ USโ€“China Truce Extension Talks
    Officials are meeting today in Stockholm to extend the trade truce another 90 days.
    ๐Ÿ”ธ Without it, tariffs would snap back to 145% (on Chinese goods) and 125% (on US exports)!
    ๐Ÿ”ธ A Trumpโ€“Xi meeting may happen in late October
    ๐Ÿ”ธ China could ease up on fentanyl-linked goods
    ๐Ÿ”ธ US hopes for increased Chinese ag purchases ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿคž
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Funds Shift Positions in Corn, Soy & Wheat
    CFTC's latest COT report shows:
    ๐ŸŸข Funds bought 8k corn contracts
    ๐ŸŸข Funds bought 26k soybean contracts
    ๐ŸŸข Funds bought 9k SRW wheat contracts
    ๐Ÿฅฉ Cattle on Feed: Bullish Surprise!
    Fridayโ€™s report showed:
    ๐Ÿ“‰ June placements: 1.4mil head (6% below expectations)
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Total on feed: 11.1mil (1% below pre-report guess)
    โžก๏ธ A bullish setup... but will record-high futures respond?
    ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina Slashes Export Tariffs
    President Milei cuts:
    ๐Ÿ”ป Soybean meal/oil: 31% โ†’ 24.5%
    ๐Ÿ”ป Soybeans: 33% โ†’ 26%
    ๐Ÿ”ป Corn: 12% โ†’ 9.5%
    ๐Ÿ”ป Select beef: 6.75% โ†’ 5%
    Milei still sees tariffs as a โ€œnecessary evilโ€ for balancing the budget, but farmers say they hurt worse than natural disasters. ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ’ธ
    ๐Ÿ”ฅ Chinaโ€™s Crop Heat Stress Continues
    China faces ongoing drought and heat:
    ๐ŸŒก๏ธ Threatens 2025/26 corn and wheat output
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Analysts say wheat could fall 5% from last year
    ๐ŸŒพ 90โ€“95% of Chinaโ€™s wheat is winter wheat
    USDA still sees modest increasesโ€”but the heat wave could say otherwise!
    ๐Ÿšข USDA Flash Sales Update
    ๐Ÿ“ข Big Friday moves:
    ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico:
    โ€ข 102,870mt corn (4mil bu)
    โ€ข 142,500mt soybeans (5mil bu)
    ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea:
    โ€ข 140,000mt corn (6mil bu)
    ๐Ÿ‘‰ 2025/26 marketing year starts off strong!


    Can't Get a Flash Sale Right?? Cut the Budget! (USDA) Jul 25, 2025
    Show notes

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
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    Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

    0:00 Sun's Out, Guns Out
    0:30 Flash Sale Fiasco
    2:08 USDA Cuts
    5:32 US Weather
    9:07 Export Sales
    12:40 North Dakota Wheat

    ๐Ÿ“ข USDA FLASH SALES SHAKE UP THE CORN MARKET! ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ“Š
    ๐Ÿ”ฅ Big news hit the wire Thursday as USDA reported multiple flash sales of US corn!
    ๐Ÿ’ฅ 135,000mt (5 mil bu) went to South Koreaโ€”after an initial (and incorrect) announcement that China was the buyer, sparking a brief rally.
    ๐ŸŒ Another 284,196mt (11 mil bu) of corn was sold to unknown destinations. Export action is heating up!
    ๐Ÿข USDA RELOCATION PLAN: BIG SHAKEUP IN DC! ๐Ÿ›๏ธโžก๏ธ๐Ÿž๏ธ
    The USDA will relocate 2,600+ employees from Washington to cities like Raleigh, KC, Indy, Fort Collins & Salt Lake City.
    ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Several DC buildings will be vacated.
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Critics warn of reduced agency effectiveness, while supporters say itโ€™ll bring USDA closer to farmers.
    ๐Ÿ“Š This move includes a NASS consolidation, affecting reports on:
    ๐ŸŒฝ Crop production
    ๐Ÿ“ Acreage
    ๐Ÿฎ Cattle on feed
    โ„๏ธ Cold storage
    ๐ŸŒพ Grain stocks & more!
    ๐ŸŒง๏ธ DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE CORN BELT! ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ’ฆ
    ๐Ÿ’ง Missouri is now entirely drought-free!
    ๐ŸŒฆ๏ธ Heavy rains in IL, IN, KY, and MO improved conditions across much of the Midwest.
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Drought by crop area:
    Corn: 9%
    Soybeans: 8%
    Winter Wheat: 31%
    Spring Wheat: 43%
    Cattle: 15%
    ๐ŸŒพ NORTH DAKOTA SPRING WHEAT YIELDS MISS USDA TARGETS! ๐Ÿ“‰
    ๐Ÿšœ After 3 days of field surveys, scouts peg ND yields at 49 bpa, far below the USDAโ€™s 59 bpa estimate.
    ๐ŸŒฆ๏ธ Rain helped some areas, but northern drought weighs on the average.
    ๐Ÿ“‰ Sep25 spring wheat contract hit new lows this week.
    ๐Ÿ“ˆ EXPORT SALES SNAPSHOT ๐ŸŒŽ
    Corn: ๐Ÿ“ˆ 643,100mt (25 mil bu) โ€“ Rebound from last week!
    Soybeans: ๐Ÿ“‰ 160,900mt (6 mil bu) โ€“ Down sharply from recent weeks
    Wheat: ๐Ÿš€ 712,200mt (26 mil bu) โ€“ Blew past expectations!
    Top Buyers:
    ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico (corn)
    ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands (soybeans)
    ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia (wheat)


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