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Big Win or Empty Promise? Japan's $8bil Deal with US Ag Sep 05, 2025

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0:00 US/Japan Deal
5:17 Rollins Comments
7:53 Corn/Soybean Charts
10:37 StoneX Estimates
14:23 Drought Expands
15:53 Biofuel Imports

🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵 Trump–Japan Trade Deal
Trump signed a deal with Japan that slaps a 15% tariff on Japanese imports.
Tokyo agreed to a $550B U.S. investment fund—Trump says he can use it “however he wants,” but no details yet.
Japan also pledged $8B annually in U.S. ag purchases (corn, soybeans).
For comparison: the 2020 U.S.–China “Phase One” deal had ~$40B/year in ag buys.
🌽🌱 Ag Market Impact
Japan bought 512M bushels of U.S. corn in the 24/25 marketing year—2nd only to Mexico.
Last season: $2.8B corn and $998M soybeans from the U.S.
This new pledge could be a major boost for U.S. farmers.
📉 StoneX Crop Outlook
Corn yield cut to 186.9 bpa (down from 188.1), but acreage boost lifts production to 16.58B bu.
Soybean yield trimmed to 53.2 bpa with production lowered to 4.26B bu.
The ongoing survey methodology dates back to 1993.
🌦️ USDA Drought Update
Corn Belt drought expands slightly: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, plus parts of Iowa & Minnesota.
Current drought coverage: Corn 9%, Soybeans 16%, Winter Wheat 34%, Spring Wheat 13%, Cattle 18%.
Some relief in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota with scattered showers.
🛢️🌱 Biofuels & Policy Shift
U.S. biodiesel imports down 94%; renewable diesel imports down 85% (lowest since 2012).
Cause: the new 45Z tax credit only applies to domestic biofuels (replacing the old $1/gal blender’s credit).
Positive for U.S. soybean oil & ethanol — less foreign competition ahead.
📢 Stay Informed
Big changes are underway in trade, policy, and farm markets. Don’t miss a beat — hit subscribe and drop your thoughts in the comments!

USDA Sounds the Alarm: Farm Income Crashing, Government Payments Soaring Sep 04, 2025

Show notes

0:00 USDA's Dire Forecast
4:10 Trump Comments
7:06 Corn/Soybean Selloff
9:22 Polymarket and CFTC
10:59 SAF Future Looks Poor
12:20 Flash Sale
🌾 Farm Economy & Receipts
USDA projects US crop receipts to decline in 2025, led by weaker returns for soybeans, corn, and wheat. Total receipts are expected at $236.6B, down 2.5% from 2024. Meanwhile, direct government payments are set to surge 300% to $40.5B. On the livestock side, cattle receipts are forecast up nearly 16%, while hogs climb almost 10%.
🌍 Trump vs. China, Russia & North Korea
President Trump accused China of conspiring with Russia and North Korea following their high-profile military parade in Beijing. Xi, Putin, and Kim stood together at the event, but Trump downplayed the threat—reminding supporters that “China needs us more than we need them.”
📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide
Corn and soybean futures pulled back midweek after recent rallies. Dec25 corn closed at $4.18, down 5 cents, while Nov25 soybeans slipped nearly 10 cents to $10.32. Losses came despite USDA reporting weaker crop condition ratings.
💻 Crypto & Prediction Markets
Polymarket scored a major win with CFTC approval to legally operate in the US. The no-action letter exempts the platform from certain costly reporting requirements, clearing the way for more growth in prediction markets.
🛢️ Shell Cancels Biofuels Project
Shell announced it will not restart construction of its massive Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak demand and global oversupply. This follows similar moves by BP and even Southwest Airlines, raising questions about the future of SAF and corn ethanol’s role in aviation fuel.
🚢 Soybean Meal Flash Sale
US exporters sold 185,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines. Total flash sales for this marketing year now stand at 455,000mt.
✅ Stay informed with daily updates on ag markets, policy, and global news. Don’t forget to subscribe and drop a comment with your thoughts below!

US Corn and Soybean Overproduction: Why Farmers are Struggling Sep 03, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn and Soybean Problems
5:47 Farmer Sentiment
9:24 Soybean Ratings Decline
11:12 Trump Appeal
12:02 Wheat is Broken
13:56 Soybean Shipping Problems Imminent

🌽📉 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into a BIG Wall Street Journal feature on U.S. corn & soybean production—and what it means for farmers, markets, and global trade.
📊 Production & Oversupply
Advances in tech and policy have fueled massive yields. Despite planting fewer acres in 2024 than 100 years ago, U.S. farmers produced 729% more corn. The downside? Oversupply has dragged prices lower and cut into profitability.
🌍 Global Trade Shifts
For decades, U.S. farmers relied on expanding demand overseas. But tariffs, trade disputes, and shifting policy have shut doors. Meanwhile, Brazil has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s top corn & soybean exporter, thanks to abundant farmland and modern logistics.
😟 Farmer Sentiment
Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer fell for the third straight month. Farmers cite higher input costs, rising loan concerns, and weaker future expectations.
🌱 Crop Conditions
Soybeans dropped to 65% good-to-excellent, the lowest rating of the year so far. Corn slipped too but still holds one of the best ratings in the past decade. Harvest is quickly approaching, with maturity advancing faster than average.
⚖️ Policy & Tariffs
President Trump is pushing for a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs after a federal court deemed parts of his previous tariffs illegal. The outcome could reshape global trade flows.
🌾 Wheat & Exports
Russia’s wheat export outlook keeps climbing, while U.S. wheat export sales are the best in 10 years for this point in the season. Corn and soybean shipments also impressed, staying near the high end of expectations.
💬Drop your thoughts in the comments—are U.S. farmers falling behind Brazil for good?
📌Don’t forget to subscribe for daily grain market updates!

Corn Futures Pop! Best Rally in 2 Months on China Rumors Sep 02, 2025

Show notes

🌽📈 Corn & Soybean Futures Rally
Corn and soybean futures ended Friday on a strong note! The Dec25 corn contract jumped about 10 cents to $4.20/bu—its best daily move since early July—while Nov25 soybeans gained 7 cents to $10.55/bu. Traders cited strong global demand, disease worries in the Corn Belt (tar spot & southern rust), and fresh chatter about Chinese buying. 🌏🇨🇳
🌡️❄️ Weather Watch
Frost risk later this week in Minnesota & Wisconsin 🌬️🥶
Overnight GFS points to lows in the mid-30s Thursday & Saturday
August went down as one of the driest in 133 years for parts of OH, KY, IN, IL, MO & TN. 🌾☀️
📜⚖️ Tariffs & Trade
A federal appeals court struck down a large chunk of Trump’s tariffs, ruling he overstepped authority under IEEPA. The decision could force repayment of billions in duties and calls into question past trade deals. Appeals are already in motion, with a Supreme Court fight likely. 🇺🇸⚖️
Meanwhile, China’s envoy Li Chenggang met with US officials in DC. No details released, but China is boosting soybean imports from Argentina & Uruguay—still no official new-crop US purchases. 🚢🌎
🚜💰 Farm Progress Show Recap
Farmers are under pressure: weak markets, rising input costs, sluggish soybean exports. Corn export sales remain solid, but soybeans lag badly without Chinese demand. Fertilizer & equipment costs continue to squeeze margins. Josh Linville joins today’s premium video to break down fertilizer prices. 🌱💸
📊📉 Fund Flows (CFTC Data)
Funds bought 4k corn, 21k soybeans & 17k SRW wheat contracts
Net long in soybeans now largest since late June 🌟
🇧🇷🌽 Brazil Crop Update
AgRural reports 7% of first-crop corn was planted as of last Thursday, up 4% from the prior week. USDA projects 131 mmt this season. Hot & dry weather is still a factor, but rains are forecast next week to aid planting. 🌦️
✅ Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
Staying informed keeps you ahead of the markets. 📊🌎

Sky-High Farm Inputs: Fertilizer Prices and Tariffs Aug 29, 2025

Show notes

0:00 How Much Does This Suck?
1:20 Fertilizer Prices and Tariffs
6:23 US/China Meeting
10:04 Export Sales
12:18 Declining River Levels
15:09 Drought and Yield Potential

💸 Fertilizer Costs & Tariffs
Tight supplies and tariffs have pushed fertilizer prices to their highest level relative to grain and oilseed futures since 2016. While Canadian potash is tariff-free under USMCA, imports from countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia face added costs. Senator Chuck Grassley says cutting tariffs would bring quick relief, while the Trump administration is pushing to label potash a critical mineral to boost domestic production. 📈
🌏 China Trade Talks
Chinese trade envoy Li Chenggang is in Washington for meetings with US trade and Treasury officials. While not part of formal negotiations, this visit follows his Canada trip and signals continued dialogue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "everything is on the table," but Beijing has yet to book new-crop US soybeans despite Trump’s push earlier this month. 🇨🇳🇺🇸
📊 Export Sales Update
• Corn: 2.1mmt (82m bu), down from last week but still strong. Mexico the top buyer.
• Soybeans: 1.4mmt (50m bu), above expectations — "unknown" buyers lead the way.
• Wheat: 579,800mt (21m bu), steady with recent trends. Vietnam the biggest buyer.
🌊 Mississippi River Woes
River levels at Memphis are forecast to fall 3–4 feet below normal by mid-month, raising fears of another costly harvest shipping season. Limited rainfall in the Ohio River Valley is adding pressure. 🚢
🌦 Drought Monitor
USDA reports drought expansion across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Some relief in the High Plains, while Michigan saw improvements.
Corn 🌽: 5% in drought
Soybeans 🌱: 11%
Winter Wheat 🌾: 31%
Spring Wheat 🌾: 13%
Cattle 🐄: 15%
👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe to stay informed on the latest in ag markets!

Farmers to Get More Aid?? USDA Talks New Payments Aug 28, 2025

Show notes

0:00 More Farm Aid?
5:05 More China Soybean News
9:14 Vietnam Ethanol
10:58 Mexico/China
11:53 S&P Record High

🚜 USDA “Bridge” Policy in the Works
Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden says USDA is exploring a short-term “bridge” policy to help farmers weather low crop prices. With ARC, PLC, and enhanced crop insurance not set to kick in until 2026, the CCC fund (to be replenished in November) could provide relief—similar to past trade war payments.
🌍 China Still Snubbing US Soybeans
Despite a ~20% premium, China continues to lean on Brazil’s soybeans while avoiding US new-crop supplies. The nation is also importing more Argentine meal and cutting feed usage. Traders are debating whether China can cover a 20–25mmt gap if they keep sidelining US beans.
🇻🇳 Vietnam Goes All-In on E10
Vietnam will fully shift to E10 gasoline in 2026, cutting its ethanol import tariff and pledging $2B in additional US ag imports. With domestic plants only covering ~40% of demand, US corn & ethanol could see a boost.
🍶 US Ethanol Snapshot
Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.07mbpd, while stocks dropped to the lowest of the year at 22.5m barrels. Margins remain strong thanks to cheap corn.
🇲🇽 Mexico Joins the Tariff Game
Mexico plans tariffs on Chinese goods as part of its 2026 budget—aligning with Trump’s request to counter cheap imports. This could reshape North American trade ahead of next year’s USMCA review.
📈 Wall Street at Record Highs
The S&P 500 closed at a record, powered by Nvidia’s blowout earnings and ongoing AI demand. Dow and Nasdaq also posted gains.
💬 What do you think—will USDA step in with real aid, or will low prices linger into 2026? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss an update.

Ohio's Driest August Ever: "Flash Drought" Chatter Accelerates Aug 27, 2025

Show notes

0:00 "Flash Drought"
3:50 Price Action and Charts
5:24 US/China Trade Talks
8:59 Renewable Investments
10:21 Russia's Wheat Crop Keeps Getting Bigger
🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest on crop weather, grain markets, trade talks, energy policy, and global wheat supplies.
☀️ Weather & Crops
Dryness is intensifying across the southern & eastern Corn Belt and the Delta. Ohio is experiencing its driest August in 133 years. Flash drought concerns are building in parts of southern IL, MO, western TN, AR, and LA. Forecasts show very little rain ahead, keeping stress high for corn & soybeans. 🌵
📉 Grain Markets
Corn futures slipped back toward $4.10, soybeans ticked higher to $10.50, and wheat was mixed. Traders are balancing record crop expectations against the risk of weather stress. Holiday-weekend trade + month-end positioning = extra volatility. 📊
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks
Talks resume in Washington, D.C. this week with Li Chenggang meeting U.S. trade & Treasury officials. Soybeans are front and center—but China wants tariff relief tied to fentanyl trade before making major purchases. Farmers are watching closely for export sales. 🚢
⚡ Renewable Energy
U.S. renewable investments fell 36% in the first half of the year. Wind & solar projects dropped sharply after Trump’s subsidy rollbacks. Last week, he said his administration will no longer approve new wind & solar projects. Big shakeup for the energy sector. 🌬️☀️
🌾 Russia Wheat Outlook
Consultancy IKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast to 86mmt and boosted export expectations to 43mmt. Despite a slight rebound, Chicago wheat remains near four-year lows, with Russia set to dominate exports again in 25/26. 🌍
👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop your thoughts in the comments, and share with a fellow farmer or trader. Staying informed = staying ahead!

North Dakota Soybeans Under $9! No China Demand = Big Trouble Aug 26, 2025

Show notes

0:00 The Biggest / The Largest
1:28 North Dakota Soybean Mess
5:06 WSJ Farm Piece
7:59 Brazil Corn Update
9:22 Crop Ratings
12:26 Grain Shipments
🌎 China Trade War Pressures Soybeans
The ongoing trade war with China continues to squeeze US soybean demand and crush basis levels. 🚢 With no Chinese buying, Northern Plains farmers face cash bids under $9/bu as PNW export demand dries up. Elevators are slashing bids, leaving some of the weakest basis since 2018.
📉 Market Stress & Farmer Struggles
The Wall Street Journal highlights farmer challenges: record crops 🌽🌱 but poor prices and rising costs mean profits are slim to none. Analysts warn breakeven corn prices could rise toward $4.66–$4.94/bu next year. Relief may hinge on the new Farm Bill or the $59B farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill.
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Update
Brazil’s second corn harvest is 98% complete, with slow farmer selling and strong domestic demand. Early planting of next year’s crop is slightly behind schedule, but forecasts call for favorable rains. US corn remains cheaper by $9/ton on the global market, keeping exports competitive.
🌽 US Crop Conditions
Corn: 71% good/excellent 👍 (2nd best in 10 years)
Soybeans: 69% good/excellent 🌱 (best since 2020)
Spring wheat: 49% good/excellent, well below average ❌
Winter wheat harvest: 98% complete ✅
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 51M bu (+39% YoY)
Soybeans: 14M bu (down from last week)
Wheat: 35M bu (+71% YoY)
👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop a comment with your take on the markets. 💬👊

Corn Yield Clash: Crop Tour 6.1BPA Below USDA, What Does it Mean??? Aug 25, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Corn Yield Clash
3:59 Biofuel Waivers
5:48 China Rhetoric
9:05 The Funds are Buying?
9:51 Powell Jackson Hole
10:52 Cattle on Feed
12:25 Flash Sales
🌽🚜 Big Week in Ag Markets!
✨ Pro Farmer wrapped up its crop tour with national yield estimates. Corn came in at 182.7 bpa (16.2B bu) vs USDA’s 188.8 bpa (16.7B bu), while soybeans were pegged at 53 bpa (4.2B bu) vs USDA’s 53.6 bpa (4.3B bu). Scouts saw huge variability—strong crops in the west but dryness and disease pressure in the east. 📊🌱
⚡ Biofuel Shock: EPA granted 63 full & 77 partial refinery waivers, sending soybean oil futures up nearly 4%. Still no clarity on reallocation for big refiners until 2023—keeping biofuel markets on edge. ⛽🌻
🇨🇳 Trade Tensions: China says U.S. protectionism is hurting farm trade. With U.S. ag exports to China cut by more than half this year, soybeans are feeling the brunt. Beijing calls farmland purchase limits “political,” while U.S. lawmakers say it’s about security. 🌎⚖️
📉 Fund Moves: CFTC data showed money managers trimming corn shorts—the smallest since May. Funds were net buyers of 28k corn & 24k soybeans but net sellers of SRW wheat. 💼📊
💵 Macro Watch: Fed Chair Powell hinted at a September rate cut during Jackson Hole. Stocks surged, the dollar fell, and traders are betting on an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut. 📉🏦📈
🐂 Cattle on Feed: August 1 inventory at 10.9M head, 98% of last year. Placements were higher than expected but still 6% below 2024 levels. Overall tone = slightly bearish. 🐄📉
🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported corn sales of 5M bu to Costa Rica and 6M bu to Spain for 2025/26 delivery. 🌍📦
👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay on top of the markets!

Soybeans & Corn Rally on Biofuel Rumors + USDA is Probably Overestimating the Corn Crop Aug 22, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Biofuel Rumor Rally
4:18 Crop Tour and USDA
8:37 Export Sales
13:30 Drought Monitor
15:53 USDA Funding Cuts

🌽🚜 Grain Market Update: Biofuel Battles, Record Crops & Export Surprises! 🌎📈
🔥 Big EPA Decision Coming Today
The EPA is expected to rule on 195 small refinery exemption (SRE) requests this afternoon. Traders are buzzing after yesterday’s rally in corn, soybeans, and soybean oil—many believe someone knows something ahead of the news. A supplemental rule could also drop next week to decide if big refiners must reallocate exempted gallons, a move farm groups strongly support and oil refiners strongly oppose. 💥⚖️
🌱 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Minnesota & Iowa Results
Scouts found record-breaking crops in both states:
🌽 Minnesota corn pegged at 199.6 bpa, smashing the old record & up 23% from last year!
🌱 Minnesota soybeans also set a new all-time pod count record.
🌽 Iowa corn estimated at 198.4 bpa, with soybeans also setting a tour record.
Final national results from the tour are expected today. 📊
🚢 Export Sales – Big Corn Business
US corn exports were 🔥 last week at 2.9 mmt (113 mil bushels), a massive 40% jump from the week prior. Unknown destinations led the charge. Soybean sales were also strong at 1.1 mmt, though China remains absent. Wheat sales lagged, with Mexico as the top buyer.
🌦️ Drought Monitor Update
Dry weather tightened conditions across the Eastern Corn Belt (Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri). North Dakota improved, while Kansas & Oklahoma worsened slightly.
Current US drought exposure:
🌽 Corn – 5%
🌱 Soybeans – 9%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 31%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 14%
🐄 Cattle – 15%
🏛️ USDA News
The USDA plans to close the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, a move critics warn could disrupt vital research. Meanwhile, NASS, the agency behind crop estimates, faces budget cuts and staffing shortages, raising questions about future reporting accuracy.
👉 Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop a comment 💬 with your thoughts on today’s EPA ruling and crop tour results!

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