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Grain Shipments at Risk? Trump's New Vessel Fees Hit Next Month Sep 19, 2025

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0:00 Great Hair
1:03 Vessel Fees
3:28 Corn/Soy Action
7:27 Export Sales
10:38 CONAB
12:12 Corn Belt Drought and Yields

🌎 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today we’re breaking down new US ship fees on Chinese vessels, grain market moves, export sales, and fresh drought data. Let’s dive in 👇
🚢 US Ship Fees & Grain Impact
The US will impose new fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships starting October 14.
Ships both built and operated by Chinese companies will face the highest costs.
Foreign-operated ships built in China will pay lower fees.
Bulk carriers like Panamax vessels (65,000–80,000 DWT)—which move most grain exports—are exempt, after pushback from farm groups earlier this year.
👉 Grain exports are unlikely to see major disruption.
📉 Grain Futures
Corn (Dec25) slipped to $4.24/bu.
Soybeans (Nov25) dropped to $10.38/bu.
Wheat followed lower.
Weakness tied to harvest progress, a stronger US dollar, and softer biofuel demand.
📦 Export Sales Update
Corn: 1.2 mmt (48 mbu), up 128% vs last week. Mexico led for 4th week in a row.
Soybeans: 923k mt (34 mbu), up 71%. Egypt the top buyer. Still no China purchases yet.
Wheat: 377k mt (14 mbu), near low end of expectations. Philippines the largest buyer.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Record Crop Outlook
Soybeans: 177.7 mmt (+3.6%), acreage up 3.7%, exports up 5.1% to 112.1 mmt.
Corn: 138.3 mmt, exports up 16% to 46.5 mmt.
🌾 Drought Monitor
Corn Belt drought worsening: 37% affected, up 17% from last week.
Extreme drought in eastern Ohio & SE Missouri.
High Plains saw slight improvement in ND, SD, and KS.
USDA drought data shows:
Corn: 25%
Soybeans: 36%
Winter Wheat: 44%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 23%
🚨 Flash Sale to Mexico
US sold 110,000 mt (4 mbu) corn for 2025/26 delivery. Corn sales are now running 68% above last year’s pace.

Republican Lawmakers Push Trump for a Farm Bailout - How Will Farmers Get Paid? Sep 18, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Farm Bailout - How Will it Look?
4:02 Fed Rate Cut
5:42 Bearish Wheat Headlines
8:23 Canada Production
9:34 Ethanol Production
🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering farm aid, the Fed’s rate cut, and big moves in global wheat and canola markets.
💵 Farm Aid Push
Republican lawmakers urge Trump administration to deliver new farmer payments
USDA weighing a package similar to the $23B MFP programs of 2018–19
ECAP already paying out $10B this year
🏦 Federal Reserve Moves
Fed cuts rates for the first time since December
New range: 4%–4.25%
Labor market weakness driving the shift
Expectations for two more cuts this year
🌍 Global Wheat & Canola
Russia exploring subsidies to boost sluggish wheat exports
India’s wheat stocks at 4-year highs
Canada: biggest wheat crop since 2013, biggest canola crop since 2018
⛽ Ethanol Update
US ethanol production dips 4.5% week over week
Stocks at 22.6M barrels, down nearly 5% from last year
Margins remain positive across the Corn Belt

Weak Dollar and Trade Deal Prospects - Grain Markets Catch a Bid Sep 17, 2025

Show notes

🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into big moves in the currency, grain, gold, and policy worlds—and what they mean for agriculture and global markets.
💵 US Dollar Weakness
The US dollar tumbled to multi-year lows as markets brace for a potential Fed rate cut. A weaker dollar is giving commodities a lift, but stronger-than-expected retail sales could temper the Fed’s dovish tone. See charts on the US Dollar Index, USD/BRL, and Bloomberg Commodity Index.
🌏 Trade & Tariffs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled fresh US-China trade talks are coming. If no deal is reached, President Trump’s tariffs (34% baseline, up to 60% effective) will take effect November 10. Last year’s $300B trade deficit with China is expected to shrink by 30% this year. Notably, China has yet to purchase US soybeans this marketing year.
🌽🌱🌾 Grain Futures Rally
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all moved higher Tuesday:
Corn near $4.30
Soybeans near $10.50
Wheat higher for the 4th straight session
Drivers: weak USD, smaller crop worries, and optimism over export demand.
🧪 Fertilizer Research Act
Senators Grassley, Baldwin, and Ernst reintroduced bipartisan legislation directing USDA to study fertilizer pricing and competition. Fertilizer now accounts for ~36% of corn farmers’ costs. The bill has backing from NCGA and ASA.
🥇 Gold at Record Highs
Gold surged past $3,700/oz—its strongest run since 1979. Hedge funds and ETFs are piling in, with stagflation and global instability adding fuel.
⛽ Biofuel Policy Updates
The EPA is weighing proposals to reallocate waived blending requirements from the Small Refinery Exemption program. Options:
50% reallocation (2023–2025)
100% reallocation (2026–2027)
Public comment runs through October 31.
👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop a comment with your take on the Fed’s next move, and hit the bell 🔔 so you never miss a market shift!

More Direct Farm Payments are Coming - How Much?? $10Bil?? $15Bil?? Who Benefits? Sep 16, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Direct Payments
4:12 US/China Talks
5:45 Brazil Soy Planting Starts
8:17 Crop Progress/Conditions
10:13 NOPA Soy Crush
11:19 Tyson and High-Fructose Corn Syrup
13:26 Grain Shipments are Strong
14:31 Flash Sale

🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering fresh updates on farm aid, trade talks, crop conditions, and global markets.
💰 USDA Aid & Farm Support
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the agency is weighing another round of farmer payments this fall. Rising input costs, weak markets, and stalled trade talks with China are driving the conversation. Past programs (MFP & ECAP) totaled more than $30B combined, and this round could land near $10B—or higher.
🌍 Trade & China Update
President Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday after trade meetings in Madrid. While talks were “very good,” China has yet to book any US soybeans this marketing year. Trump may lean on direct payments to farmers unless a favorable deal emerges.
🌱 Brazil Planting & Production
Brazilian farmers are just starting soybean planting—0.12% complete vs. 0.06% last year. AgRural projects a record 176.7mmt soybean crop, while USDA pegs corn at 131mmt. Dry weather could slow progress.
🌽 US Crop Progress & Conditions
Corn: 67% G/E rating (highest since 2018 for the week), 7% harvested.
Soybeans: 63% G/E, 5% harvested—slightly behind LY but ahead of avg.
Wheat: Winter wheat planting 11% (vs. 13% avg), spring wheat harvest 94%.
🏭 Crush & Processing
NOPA August crush: 189.81M bu—record for August, +20% YoY, above trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.245B lbs, the lowest since Dec 2024.
🍗 Tyson & Corn Syrup
Tyson will phase out high-fructose corn syrup, sucralose, and dyes by year-end under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Corn syrup accounts for ~3% of US corn demand. One study suggests Tyson’s feed needs cover 10M acres of corn & soy.
🚢 Exports & Sales
US corn shipments: 1.5mmt (60M bu), +167% YoY. Soybeans: 804k mt (30M bu), +70% YoY. Wheat: 755k mt (28M bu), +28% YoY. Plus, USDA announced a flash sale of 6M bu of corn to unknown buyers.
👉 Stay tuned, drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for the latest ag market insights!

Bearish USDA Report... But Corn Rallies?! Here's Why Sep 15, 2025

Show notes

0:00 USDA and Corn Rally
6:10 The Funds
8:26 US/China Talks to Resume
9:39 USDA Reporting Problems
11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale
🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & Soybeans
US corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.
For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%.
📉 Funds Add to Shorts
CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:
Corn: -4k contracts
Soybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)
SRW Wheat: -10k contracts
🤝 US–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.
🇨🇳 Export Sales Twist
Last week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.
🛢 Soybean Oil Surprise
USDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.

Building Drought vs. Record USDA Yield Estimates: Which Story Wins?? Sep 12, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Building Drought
6:13 USDA Preview
9:41 Export Sales
12:21 Brazil's Crop Report
14:20 Inflation is Up
🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇
🌦 Weather & Drought Monitor
USDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.
Corn: 13% affected
Soybeans: 22%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 18%
📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.
Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/disease
US ending stocks seen slightly lower
Global corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up
🚢 Export Sales
US corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:
Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyer
Soybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyer
Wheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)
Conab raised estimates again:
Corn: record 139.7 mmt
Soybeans: record 171.5 mmt
Soy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by China
Brazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.
📈 Economy & CPI
US consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.
👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!

USDA to Cut Crop Estimates? + Joe Attempts Positive Spin on Soybean Situation Sep 11, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Intro
0:49 USDA Preview
3:38 Argentina Situation
7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin
10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth
12:15 Ethanol Production
🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽
📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
The USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.
🇦🇷 Argentina Outlook
Rosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.
🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US Soybeans
China booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.
⛽ Biofuels & Policy Uncertainty
Trump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.
🍶 Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.
👉Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and leave a comment with your thoughts on tomorrow’s report.

"Worst Ag Economy of My Lifetime" - The Farmer is a "Mechanism" for Direct Payment Funneling Sep 10, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Ag Economy
6:57 Soybean Hit Piece
9:58 SREs
11:15 Grain Standards Act
12:13 Cattle Selloff
14:03 BLS Data (Jobs)
💰 Ag Economy Crisis
AgWeb reports farmers nationwide are facing collapsing margins.
At a September 2 meeting in Arkansas, 400+ farmers called bailouts ineffective and skewed toward corporate players.
Monopolistic control in seed, fertilizer, and chemical markets is trapping farmers while corporations profit.
Bankruptcy risks are spiking, with 25–40% of farms in some regions projected to fail.
Leaders demand reforms: antitrust enforcement, merger freezes, lobbying limits, and greater market diversification.
🌱 Soybean Disaster
China still hasn’t purchased a single US soybean this marketing year.
Typically, China takes more than 25% of US soybean exports.
Ongoing trade tensions push China toward Brazil.
Prices are now below production costs—half a million American farmers are at risk.
Agriculture supports nearly 19% of US GDP and 1M+ jobs.
Industry leaders are calling for immediate trade resolutions.
⚡ Biofuels Battle
Senators from oil-producing states introduced the Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025.
Would block the EPA from reallocating blending obligations from small refineries to larger ones.
Biofuel groups argue this rewards small refineries and weakens renewable fuel policy.
A reallocation of exemptions would be devastating to the ethanol industry.
🌾 Grain Standards Act
The House passed the US Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025.
Extends the inspection and grading system through 2030.
Pushes USDA toward tech upgrades for better accuracy.
Ensures fair pricing for farmers and buyer confidence abroad.
The Senate must approve before the end of September to avoid $70M/day losses.
🥩 Cattle Market Correction
Cattle futures saw the steepest correction since June.
Feeder cattle limit down across nearly all contracts.
Driven by payroll data revisions showing a weaker consumer outlook.
Trump’s weekend comments on falling beef prices added pressure.
📉 Jobs Data Shock
BLS is expected to revise payrolls lower by 911,000 jobs.
Cuts average monthly growth nearly in half from previous reports.
Weak labor data strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week.
Final revisions are due early 2026.
👉Don’t miss tomorrow’s update—hit subscribe, drop a comment with your thoughts, and share this with a fellow farmer or market watcher. Staying informed is critical in times like these!

China Imports a Record Amount of Soybeans, but NONE from the US Sep 09, 2025

Show notes

0:00 China Imports
5:26 Crop Progress
9:21 Brazil Planting Begins
10:57 Russia Wheat
11:54 Grain Shipments
🌎 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down key moves in global grain markets.
📊 China Soybean Demand
China ramped up soybean purchases in August, bringing in a record 12.3mmt for the month. Stockpiles now sit at 6.8mmt—the highest since March. While the US export window is just opening, China continues to rely heavily on Brazil amid the ongoing US-China trade war.
🌽 US Corn & Soy Conditions
Corn ratings slipped slightly, with 68% good/excellent vs. 69% last week, still the best since 2018. 4% of the crop is harvested vs. 3% average. Soybean ratings dipped to 64% g/e, the lowest of the year. 21% of beans are dropping leaves—a touch ahead of average.
🌾 Wheat Update
Spring wheat harvest is 85% complete, nearly in line with average. Winter wheat planting is just getting started at 5%, steady with last year.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Pace
AgRural reports 12% of first corn crop planted, behind last year’s 15%. Soybean planting has just begun at 0.2%. USDA projects 131mmt corn and 175mmt soybeans for Brazil this season.
🇷🇺 Russia’s Bigger Wheat Crop
Sovecon lifted its wheat estimate to 86.1mmt, matching IKAR’s latest call. Black Sea production strength continues to weigh on global wheat prices.
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 1.4mmt (57m bu)—up 70% vs. last year 📈
Soybeans: 452k mt (17m bu)—+24% y/y
Wheat: 425k mt (16m bu)—down sharply w/w
Don’t forget to subscribe, drop a 👍, and share your thoughts in the comments. Your support helps keep this channel going!

Weekend Freeze Event + ZERO China Soybean Purchases Sep 08, 2025

Show notes

0:00 Freeze
1:35 Unknown Buys Soybeans
2:43 Export Sales
8:35 Monster Corn Yield Estimate
9:56 The Funds
10:59 Job Growth Slows

🌽🌱 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down weekend weather risks, fresh export sales, and market reaction.
❄️ Weekend Freeze Event
Some US corn and soybean areas saw freezing temps early Sunday morning across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Nebraska. The extent of crop damage is still unclear, but markets are shrugging it off with lackluster trade to start the week. See maps below, and please share any local details you have—past/observed weather info is much harder to pin down than forecasts!
🚢 Export Sales Update
USDA reported two Friday flash sales: 327,650mt (12mil bu) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 25/26 delivery.
Accumulated sales are down 32% YoY, with “Unknown” now 41% of all new-crop soybean export sales.
China still hasn’t booked a single bushel for 25/26. While some “Unknown” could be China, a weak Northern Plains basis suggests no major PNW program yet.
New crop corn sales hit 2.1mmt (83mil bu), near the high end of expectations. Mexico was the top buyer.
Soybean sales (818,500mt) were down 40% WoW; wheat sales (313,000mt) missed expectations, with Nigeria as the top buyer. See charts below.
🌾 Crop Estimates
S&P Global pegs yields at 189.1bpa for corn (16.77bbu) and 53.8bpa for soybeans (4.31 bbu)—record-large crops. These numbers are slightly above USDA’s latest estimates but higher than StoneX’s more cautious outlook. USDA updates its official estimates this Friday.
📊 Fund Positioning
CFTC data shows:
Funds trimmed corn shorts again, buying 16k contracts. Net short now 95k, the smallest since May.
Funds sold 8k soybean contracts and 417 SRW wheat contracts.
💼 Macro Headlines
US job growth slowed in August with just +22,000 jobs (vs. 75k expected). Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. June was revised to a loss of 13k jobs—the first monthly decline since 2020. Analysts see this soft labor market reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.

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