Bloomberg Surveillance - Bloomberg

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Bill Gross Says We're Stuck in a 2% Real GDP Environment Feb 03, 2017

Show notes

Janus Capital Management's Bill Gross says he's skeptical that real GDP growth can rise to 3 to 4 percent. Prior to that, Alan Krueger, a professor at Princeton University, says NAFTA has been positive for the U.S. Bob Doll, Nuveen's chief equity strategist, says the more restrictions enacted, the less efficient the economy will be. Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says he expects the U.S. to revert back to the 1970s' weak dollar policy. Finally, PIMCO's Scott Mather says investors are underpricing central bank action.

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Pressure on Fed Independence Is Ramping Up, Broaddus Says Feb 02, 2017

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Former Richmond Fed President Al Broaddus says there are several pieces of legislation in Congress that would impinge on the Fed's independence. Prior to that, Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer Funds' senior investment strategist, says investors have fought kicking and screaming for the entire bull market. Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson's senior research analyst, says the big three mobile carriers aren't a "triopoly." Finally, Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Nomura Forex, says he's short USD-JPY and sees a weaker dollar compared to the yen.

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Apple Services to Be a $45 Billion Business, Munster Says Feb 01, 2017

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Gene Munster, Loup Ventures' managing partner, says Apple's growth during the next five years will come from its services. Prior to that, RBS Chairman Howard Davies says a U.S.-China trade war would offset a fiscal boost. Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at Berkeley, says trade policy will take precedent for Donald Trump because tax reform and infrastructure packages require cooperation with Congress. Finally, former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft says Attorney General nominee Jeff Sessions won't be polarizing because he believes in the rule of law.

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HSBC's Maher Shorts Sterling Jan 31, 2017

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Daragh Maher, HSBC's U.S. head of FX strategy, says he sees the pound at $1.20 in the short term and $1.10 by year's end. Prior to that, Brian Belski, the chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, says bet on big banks because of deregulation. Admiral James Stavridis, dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says the U.S. should conduct serious vetting of refugees but not slam the door arbitrarily. Finally, David Bier, an immigration policy analyst at the Cato Institute, says it's illegal for the president to override the 1965 Immigration Act.

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Trump Opposition Crosses Political Lines, George Mitchell Says Jan 30, 2017

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George Mitchell, the former U.S. Senate majority leader, says opposition to Donald Trump's executive orders isn't only along political lines. Prior to that, Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics, says Trump's immigration ban is a propaganda boost for ISIS. Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School, says strong vetting is already in place and Trump's executive order was unnecessary. Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, says illegal immigration is back down to levels from the 1960s and 1970s. Finally, Representative Robert Bishop, chairman of the House Energy and Resources Committee, says Secretary of Defense James Mattis has shown that he is willing to work with Congress.

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Morgan Stanley's Parker Says Earnings May Rise 18 Percent Jan 27, 2017

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Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, says corporate earnings may increase 18 percent this year and next. Micah Zenko, a strategist at the Council of Foreign Relations, says Russia's Putin wants to push boundaries with U.S. allies. Charles Dumas, TSL Research's chief economist, says reflation is global and not just in the U.S. James Glassman, JPMorgan's senior economist, says 2 percent growth isn't what we're used to in a typical recovery.

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DeLong Says Trump's Tax Cuts Will Raise Demand for U.S. Dollars Jan 26, 2017

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Berkeley professor Brad DeLong says Donald Trump's big tax cuts will raise demand for U.S. dollars worldwide. Kevin Roberts, the former Saatchi & Saatchi chairman, says Trump capitalized on the people's anger at traditional Washington politics. Finally, Bob Sinche, Amherst Pierpont's global strategist, says China faces challenges and may let the currency soften more.

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Alan Blinder Says the Fed Isn't Dysfunctional Jan 25, 2017

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Alan Blinder, a professor at Princeton and former Federal Reserve official, says the Fed isn't dysfunctional, despite the Republicans' success at making the government seem that way. Prior to that, James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC, says markets don't believe that protectionism is coming. Brian Jacobsen, Wells Fargo's chief portfolio strategist, says fixed income and emerging markets represent the best investment opportunity. Finally, Alice Rivlin, the former director of the Office of Management and Budget, says we need to boost economic growth and have long-term debt on a stable path.

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Sallie Krawcheck Says We're 100 Years From Gender Pay Parity Jan 24, 2017

Show notes

Sallie Krawcheck, CEO of Ellevest, says we are 100 to 180 years away from gender pay parity, or longer if you're a woman of color. Kevin Logan, HSBC's chief U.S. economist, says the pound is a barometer for Brexit. Brennan Hawken, an analyst at UBS, says Goldman Sachs is most likely to benefit from regulatory adjustments. Finally, Michael Gapen, Barclays' chief U.S. economist, says the Fed is no longer the only game in town.

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Surveillance: Trade Wars Would Be a Disaster, Goolsbee Says Jan 23, 2017

Show notes

Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says the TPP was a renegotiation of NAFTA and that trade wars would be a "disaster." Prior to that, Dean Curnett, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, says volatility due to politics has been increasing and it's challenging to know how and when some of these risks will make their way into markets. Former HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt says President Trump and the GOP will focus on Medicaid. Finally, David Herro, CIO of Harris Associates, says non-U.S. stocks are more attractive than U.S. in valuation.

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