Bloomberg Surveillance - Bloomberg

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Forecasts for Productivity Growth Are Uncertain, Blanchard Says Mar 06, 2017

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Olivier Blanchard, the former IMF chief economist, says forecasts for productivity growth are uncertain. Prior to that, Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the right economic nationalist conversations to be having are those that surround corporate tax reform. Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says we've plucked the lowest-hanging fruit when it comes to the growth outlook for the U.S. Finally, Marc Chandler, the head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, says the market's expectation of a March rate hike doesn't change the odds of three rate increases this year.

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Fed Isn't Committed Enough to Price Stability, Goodfriend Says Mar 03, 2017

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Marvin Goodfriend, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University, says that if the Federal Reserve were really committed to price stability, retirees would be in a much better situation today. Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research, says Snap has created a successful product but the bigger question is whether Snap can increase revenue. David Kirkpatrick, CEO and founder of Techonomy Media, says Snap isn't like Twitter because it's got a real business. Finally, USB Securities' Julian Emanuel says enthusiasm isn't as high as it was in 1999 or 2000, suggesting valuations may still move higher.

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Blinder Expects Up to Four Fed Rate Hikes This Year Mar 02, 2017

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Alan Blinder, former vice-chairman of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve, expects three to four rate hikes this year. Prior to that, Bill Lee, Citigroup's head of North American economics, says sentiment data aren't good predictors of real data or the economy. Jim Millstein, former chief restructuring officer at the U.S. Treasury, says the confirmation process has become uncivil and we have to change it if we want to get qualified candidates into public service. Finally, Mike Mayo, a former CLSA banking analyst, discusses the future of sell-side research and banking regulation.

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Democrats Are in the Wilderness, Valliere Says Mar 01, 2017

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Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Democrats are in the wilderness when it comes to responding to President Trump, whose change in tone will yield positive dividends. Prior to that, John Silvia, Wells Fargo's chief economist, says it will be a struggle to get 3- to 4-percent GDP growth on a sustained basis. Admiral James Stavridis, the dean of Tufts University's Fletcher School, says promises are pouring in from NATO but the U.S. hasn't yet seen money from NATO allies. Finally, Steve Rattner, chairman of Willett Advisors, says that replacing Obamacare will result in a smaller health-care system that costs the government less.

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U.S. Economy Is Pretty Solid at 2.5% Growth, Hyman Says Feb 28, 2017

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Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, says the U.S. economy will expand by 2.5 percent this year and we'll know the economy is at full employment once wages start to rise. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO's head of public policy, says tax policy is the No. 1 question from clients. Martin Hegarty, the head of BlackRock's inflation-linked bond portfolios, says core inflation is on a path to 2.7 percent at the end of 2018. Finally, Max Baucus, the former U.S. Ambassador to China and former senator from Montana, says we have to work together to make sure the tax code is efficient and that people get adequate healthcare.

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Valuations Are Just About Average, Herro Says Feb 27, 2017

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David Herro, Harris Associates' deputy chairman and CIO, says valuations aren't overpriced. Prior to that, Jonathan Golub, RBC Capital Markets' chief U.S. market strategist, says inflation expectations are rising and there's no sign of a looming recession. Dr. Steve Corwin, president and CEO of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, discusses the debate over Obamacare and says access to care isn't insurance. Finally, Thomas Wright, the director of the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institute, says President Trump is looking to see what he can tear up.

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Virginia's McAuliffe Criticizes Trump's First Month Feb 24, 2017

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Terry McAuliffe, Virginia's Democratic governor, says President Trump has made many mistakes in his first 30 days. Prior to that, Merrill Lynch's Joe Quinlan says politicians have to pay attention to the angry populist movement. Finally, George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, says Trump is playing cleanup on immigration enforcement from Presidents Obama, Bush and Clinton.

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Banks Will Close 10,000 Branches in Coming Years, Mayo Says Feb 23, 2017

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Michael Mayo, a banking analyst at CLSA, says banks will close 10,000 branches in the next several years as customers accept mobile banking. Prior to that, Ed Morse, Citigroup's global head of commodities research, says OPEC needs to prolong cuts because of the oil glut. Finally, John Herrmann, a rate strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ, says the market is pricing in too low of a chance that there will be a Fed rate hike in March.

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U.S. Markets Are Ignoring Risks, Yale's Roach Says Feb 22, 2017

Show notes

Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University, says U.S. markets are largely ignoring risks because it's human behavior to believe in the message of growth rather than the reality of political upheaval. Sam Zell, the chairman of Equity Group Investments, says immigration is core to what built the U.S. Also, BNP Paribas' Stewart Warther says U.S. equity markets are getting close to being fully priced. Finally, Vince Reinhart, the chief economist at Standish Mellon, says stronger growth will be coupled with tighter Fed monetary policy than previously thought.

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Europeans Worried Trump Isn't Leading, Harvard's Burns Says Feb 21, 2017

Show notes

Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University, says many Europeans are concerned that the U.S. is no longer leading the West. Prior to that, Chris Verrone, Strategas Research's head of technical analysis, says there's a lot of bearishness with respect to the pound and the euro. Craig Moffett, founder and senior analyst at MoffettNathanson, says Verizon and AT&T would benefit the most from consolidation. Finally, Dennis Ross, who conducted Arab-Israeli diplomacy for three U.S. presidents, says destroying ISIS is an ideological challenge, not just a military one.

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