Yet Another Value Podcast

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Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets September 2022 Sep 28, 2022

Show notes

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in September 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including an aggressive anti-trust regime and the potential for a bump at Swedish Match.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 What's on Chris's Mind
3:10 What's happening in Antitrust
8:25 Does UNH's win in CHNG change the environment
10:45 Does European regulation impact the antitrust environment?
15:55 The ATVI / MSFT deal
23:30 Is it ok for regulators to be this "outgunned"?
27:00 How do the November elections impact the antitrust outlook?
30:00 Quick TGNA discussion
31:45 Swedish Match
35:55 Is SWMA really undervalued?
40:20 Would there be alternative buyers for SWMA?
41:20 How FX impacts SWMA

The CoVest Select team on launching CoVest and their $OEC thesis Sep 21, 2022

Show notes

Kyle Mowery and Jake Miller come on the podcast to discus their new CoVest Select venture and then dive deep into their thesis for Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC).
CoVest Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/CoVestSelect
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 CoVest overview
5:05 OEC overview
9:05 What is the market missing with OEC?
11:45 The supply demand dynamic for rubber black
14:15 Why isn't this a simple generic commodity business?
18:20 Are management's 2025 midcycle EBITDA targets reasonable?
21:00 Why can't a bunch of supply come online in the medium term?
26:05 How critical and replaceable is carbon black?
29:35 Recycling carbon black?
32:10 Will EPA capex really end?
36:10 OEC's debottlenecking investments
38:20 How the energy crisis effects OEC
47:30 Why OEC over competitors
51:10 Capital allocation and share buybacks
55:40 CoVest overview
59:55 Why work with CoVest
1:05:05 Timeline for a CoVest investment

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital on $PX Sep 16, 2022

Show notes

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital comes on the pod to discuss his investment thesis on $PX.
You can find Dave's original podcast appearance, where he discuss PX when it was still PIOE and some other small caps, here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1300763059267481600?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 PX Overview
3:30 Management fee streams
5:10 Is PX's focus on fund of funds a concern?
8:25 Disintermediation risk for fund of funds
11:50 What is the market missing at PX?
15:20 Why PX versus a larger alt?
18:30 Comparing PX to KKR
23:20 PX's acquisition outlook
25:15 Can PX really cross sell funds?
28:15 More on PX's acquisitions
30:00 Adverse selection in fund of fund acquisitions
34:00 PX's recent CRSS investment
42:30 Why isn't PX buying back stock?
46:30 How PX's stock will get more liquid over time
48:15 PX's management team track record
52:00 Why Dave's digging in Italy and Poland

James Elbaor is investing in Bill Ackman at a Discount $PSH Sep 12, 2022

Show notes

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Pershing Square Holdings (PSH).
PSH is Bill Ackman's closed end fund. It trades at a discount, at James thinks Ackman is on the verge of taking steps that will both increase net asset value and shrink the discount.
James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaor
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:25 PSH Overview
11:50 Why would a U.S. listing close the NAV gap?
20:20 What could PSH buy to relist in the U.S.?
22:55 How does PSH fund an acquisition?
24:55 Responding to the Ackman Blow Up Risk
27:30 PSH's management fees and the discount
32:20 Why has PSH's leverage come down this year?
38:30 Discussing PSH's "macro" trades
42:30 The interest rate swaption
46:30 PSH's current portfolio
52:30 How PSH will evolve over time
56:30 PSH's dividend
1:01:30 A little more on a potential relisting

Jon Boyar on the Dolan Discounts at $MSGS and $MSGE Aug 26, 2022

Show notes

Jon Boyar returns to the podcast to talk about his investment thesis for MSGS and MSGE, including why he thinks investors are underrating James Dolan and just how wide their discount to asset value has become.
You can find more on the Fresh Looks here: https://boyarresearch.myshopify.com/products/2022-opportunity-issue-edition-with-bonus-content?utm_content=216760092&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-963533512887406593
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:45 MSG History
8:10 Do the Dolan's actually create value for minority shareholders?
13:15 MSGS SOTP
15:55 Can someone actually write a check for the Knicks
21:15 What happens when the NBA rights renew?
24:20 Could the Knicks and Rangers backstop a new Garden at some point?
29:30 MSGE spin overview
31:10 Why not do a full spin at MSGE?
33:20 MSGE bull thesis (SOTP) versus bear thesis (Sphere)
37:00 How bad was the MSGN deal
40:15 Sports betting
47:00 What are the Rockettes worth?
49:20 Will James Dolan actually sell the team?
53:30 Please don't trade for Donovan Mitchell

Andrew Carreon from Emeth Value on Diversified Energy $DEC Aug 22, 2022

Show notes

Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Diversified Energy (DEC; trades in London). Key points include how the company can get such good deals on acquisitions, if the company has an edge in handling asset retirement obligations, and why the company pays such a big dividend.
My bull thesis on DEC: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/tegus-sponsored-deep-dive-4-natural-198
Andrew's first podcast appearance on BSM: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1402967314233008129?s=20&t=8N1sKfcgkx0mbRjNkJxL6w
Bloomberg article on DEC: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/gas-producer-diversified-energy-said-emissions-fell-now-it-says-they-didn-t
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 DEC overview
9:45 How is DEC getting such good deals from sophisticated sellers
17:10 Hs the current energy environment changed the ESG market for energy?
19:30 DEC's route density model and acquisition synergies
27:30 Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO)
43:55 Even more on AROs
54:00 Is DEC just kicking the ARO can down the road?
58:20 Discussing the "Bloomberg" article
1:06:40 Does DEC have a regulatory edge in handling AROs?
1:09:10 Why is DEC paying out a big dividend instead of buying back shares?
1:15:45 Comparing the opportunity cost of DEC to BSM

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets August 2022 Aug 17, 2022

Show notes

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the IS / U / APP love triangle, and Rio's "failed" bid for TRQ.
0:00 Intro
2:10 Overview
3:45 What's happening with TWTR
26:10 IS / U / APP love triangle
45:00 Rio / TRQ

Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248 on $TWTR vs. Musk Aug 09, 2022

Show notes

Tulane Law Professor Ann Lipton and Fintwit personality Compound248 discuss the latest in Twitter’s lawsuit against Elon Musk. Note that we dive directly into all the nuisances of the trial; for more background on how we got here and what’s at stake you can listen to my podcast from May with Evan Tindell.
My May pod with Evan on TWTR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSA
Professor Lipton's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnMLipton
Compound's Twitter: https://twitter.com/compound248
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:40 Overall case thoughts to date
6:40 Will Elon's "unclean hands" prevent him from breaking the deal?
9:05 Is Specific Performance the right remedy here?
12:30 How Musk's tweets are undercutting his own case
16:30 Can the court see to the heart of the mDAU arguments?
26:00 The looming discovery fight
28:05 What can we read into the judge's actions so far?
30:30 The timeline for resolution if this goes to trial and appeal
36:15 What happens if TWTR has an MAE between now and court resolution?
38:30 Why is Musk referencing Texas law?
48:10 Is the India lawsuit an ordinary course breach?
50:05 Does Elon waiving due diligence have any impact on the case?
53:15 Elon's consent rights
55:55 Does how the contract evolved overtime matter?
56:30 Does Elon continuing to add to his counterclaims impact his credibility?
58:30 A little more on mDAUs
1:00:45 Elon's threat to start a competitor in the merger negotiation
1:02:25 The billion dollar damages cap
1:08:45 Financing tail risk
1:12:15 Odds of a settlement

David from Kingdom Capital on UNTC Aug 02, 2022

Show notes

David Bastian from Kingdom Capital discusses his bull thesis for Unit Corp (UNTC).
David's UNTC write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503262-unit-corporation-heads-win-tails-dont-lose
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 UNTC overview
5:00 Discussing UNTC's sale process
11:20 Thoughts on UNTC's prelim Q2 numbers
14:45 What is the market missing with UNTC?
18:00 What is UNTC's major shareholder thinking?
23:20 Why did the Gulf assets sell for such a discount?
27:15 Can UNTC increase their production?
30:15 UNTC's drilling / rig segment
33:30 Valuing drilling
38:15 Midstream's value
46:15 Discussing capital allocation / returns
49:20 UNTC's warrants
52:40 UNTC's SOTP
1:01:00 Generalists in energy

Chris DeMuth's state of the markets July 2022 Jul 28, 2022

Show notes

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the state of antitrust, and the opportunity set in squeeze outs.
0:00 Intro
2:45 Markets Overview
4:25 Sanderson Farms (SAFM)
8:00 Majority owned companies and squeeze outs
10:40 CLR update and energy companies
21:55 Energy companies now versus Tobacco in the 80s
26:10 TWTR update
28:50 Review of the TWTR expedited hearing
35:25 Will Twitter win specific performance if they win the trial?
40:20 Thoughts on TWTR's complaint and Elon's response
46:30 Was Elon's attempt to break the deal now bad strategy?
52:45 TWTR wrap up

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