Yet Another Value Podcast

Latest Episodes:

PJ Kurzweil on Spectrum Brands SPB Jul 18, 2022

Show notes

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Spectrum Brands (SPB). Spectrum is currently in the process of selling their HHI business, and whether that deal goes through or not PJ thinks the stock is too cheap given the quality of their brands / businesses.
My notes on SPB: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1547219565016453121?s=20&t=n_liDehcIwWBLmo0x51NLQ
PJ's SPB write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-hard-catalysts-to
Chapter
0:00 Intro
2:10 SPB overview
4:55 Why is SPB interesting right now?
7:30 What's going on with the HHI sale?
13:00 HSI's HSR process
17:30 What happens if the HSI deal falls through?
24:00 HPC's value
31:20 Inflation's impact on SPB
33:30 Did pets and garden benefit too much from COVID pull forward?
37:00 Are millennials a tail wind going forward?
40:20 SPB's pet brands
45:50 What drives SPB's near term earnings growth?
48:00 Is SPB underspending on ad spend?
50:00 SPB versus CENT
55:00 Capital allocation at SPB

Jeremy Raper on the event driven market July 2022 Jul 11, 2022

Show notes

Jeremy Raper of rapercapital.com makes his record 7th podcast appearance to discuss a host of event driven situations.
Jeremy's letter to EVO: https://rapercapital.com/2022/07/03/an-open-letter-to-the-board-of-evolve-education-group/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 What's the current environment like?
9:20 SHLX
19:00 TRQ
34:00 SAVE
43:00 VTNR
58:30 CLMT
1:19:30 Wrapping up with HRBR and FAR

Conor Maguire's "Deep Breath, Deep Value" thesis on SOL Group Jul 01, 2022

Show notes

Conor Maguire, founder of valuesits, discusses why he thinks SOL Group is a Buffett-like stock trading at an attractive multiple with the possibility of a private equity takeout over the next five years.
Conor's SOL write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/deep-breath-deep-value
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 SOL overview
4:50 What is the market missing with SOL?
9:00 Why a private equity firm would like SOL
14:55 Would regulators be ok with a private equity deal for SOL?
18:10 Why would the family want to sell SOL?
23:10 Diving into the technical gas business
25:20 How does Europe's nat gas crisis impact SOL?
29:20 What's the long term obsolesce risk for SOL?
33:20 SOL's carbon capture call option
38:15 SOL's home care business
43:20 SOL's emerging businesses
49:30 What else is Conor seeing in the market?

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets June 2022 (podcast #114) Jun 23, 2022

Show notes

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in June 2022.
Chris's May 2022 state of the markets episode: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chris's golden age of arb posts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 What's on Chris's mind
3:35 Wide spreads and CTXS
8:15 PLAN's recut
16:15 Do investors over or underestimate how much PE firms care about their reputation?
22:45 How strong are bank financing agreements in rocky markets?
26:40 Other golden age of arb candidates
29:15 State of the energy market
32:00 CLR's take private bid
39:05 Updated TWTR thoughts
50:40 Closing thoughts and crypto markets

Brian Laks from Old West on Tin's Alpha Potential Jun 16, 2022

Show notes

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for Tin and why he thinks the world's largest tin miner, Alphamin, could present an alpha opportunityi.
Brian's first appearance on Uranium and NXE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1434879061961019396?s=20
Tin market bull case video mentioned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ro8uCD10-w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 Tin market overview
4:00 What drives the structural increase in tin prices?
7:25 Is there an alternative for tin?
13:25 Tin supply dynamics
20:20 What would it take to bring new tin mines on?
24:40 Marginal cost of tin supply
30:30 Why is today's tin price right versus 2019's?
35:15 Alphamin overview
41:10 Alphamin's expansion project
44:50 The strategic review process
52:00 Capital allocation and Alphamin's dividend
58:45 Tin's terminal value versus coal
1:01:30 Could China buy Alphamin?
1:07:00 What happens if Alphamin doesn't sell?
1:12:40 Why is the strategic review taking so long?
1:16:15 Closing thoughts

Doug from Fabricated Knowledge on the Semis industry and his RMBS thesis Jun 10, 2022

Show notes

Doug Olaughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, comes on the podcast to talk about the semiconductor space in general and then dive into his thesis on Rambus (RMBS) and why the market might be missing their big growth call option.
Fabricated knowledge website: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com
Doug's RMBS thesis: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/a-pure-play-on-datacenter-memory?s=w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:00 Why semis are so compelling
4:10 What's driving the auto / semi shortage
6:55 What Doug's seeing in the semi world
11:30 Why generalists struggle with semis
15:15 Where are we in the semi-cycle right now?
21:30 Separating semi inventory issues from long term supply coming on
31:45 How fragile is the semi supply chain
39:40 Does a crypto winter impact semis?
44:40 Diving into RMBS
56:00 What Doug is seeing the market is missing
58:30 How sustainable is RMBS's FCF?
1:02:30 Why is insider ownership so awful here?
1:06:30 RMBS's acquisition program
1:08:05 Will RMBS really own CXL?
1:14:30 closing thoughts

PJ Kurzweil sees smooth sailing ahead for BC May 31, 2022

Show notes

PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Brunswick (BC). BC is a boat manufacturer, and PJ thinks they are too cheap and the market is missing how much more economically resilient the business is today than it was ~10 years ago.
My BC notes: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1529822951016497153?s=20&t=lAssCowdwRLleeF1c1ZVEw
PJ's BC write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/brunswick-corporation-1-pager-summary?r=1g9l5j&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:25 BC overview
5:15 What is PJ seeing in BC that the market's missing?
8:50 Is BC about to run into COVID pull forward headwinds?
13:25 Sizing the boat market
16:20 BC's recession risk
20:10 BC's P&A business and recurring revenue
26:00 Capital allocation and M&A multiples
30:20 BC's vertically integrated model: advantage or overblown?
33:50 BC's Freedom Boat Club optionality
38:45 Share buybacks and insider ownership
42:30 BC's improving free cash flow
45:15 Is BC bringing capacity on right as demand falls off?
47:30 Interest rate, inflation, and financing risks
51:15 Rising gas prices effect on boat demand
54:20 Vontier (VNT) and closing thoughts

Michael Fritzell from Asian Century Stocks on T. Hasegawa May 27, 2022

Show notes

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on T. Hasegawa. T. Hasegawa trades at a huge discount to its domestic peers like IFF despite similar or better growth and margins, and Michael thinks some recent changes and shareholder pressure could set the company up to rerate.
Michael's T. Hasegawa write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/deep-dive-2022-8-t-hasegawa?s=w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:25 T. Hasegawa overview
6:45 Why fragrance and flavors are so sticky
9:35 T. Hasegawa's small cost to large value
15:25 What is Michael seeing that the market is missing in T. Hasegawa
17:30 Are continued lockdowns a risk to the business?
19:00 What do you need to believe for T. Hasegawa to continue to grow?
20:55 Why will T. Hasegawa realize value from their Chinese investments?
22:40 Is T. Hasegawa the classic Japanese value trap?
26:45 Are acquisitions a good capital allocation decision here?
32:50 T. Hasegawa closing thoughts
34:30 What countries does Michael think are most attractive currently?

Evan Tindell thinks Elon Musk will close the Twitter acquisition May 25, 2022

Show notes

Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the circus that is the Elon Musk and Twitter merger agreement and explains why he thinks Delaware law and precedent suggest Elon would lose in court and be forced to close the merger on terms.
My piece on Twitter: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/twitter-the-circus-will-have-a-happy?s=w
This podcast was taped afternoon of May 23; things are moving quickly so just time stamping that!
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 Twitter overview
6:45 Why bot followers do not equal mDAUs
8:00 Why is Twitter mispriced right now?
12:40 Specific performance versus the $1 billion break fee
18:30 Defining a material adverse event (MAE)
26:25 The LVMH / TIF parallels
30:00 Why Elon should avoid going to court in Delaware
35:45 Could Elon actually get out of this deal on a bot miscount?
38:25 Does Elon waiving DD hurt him in a potential court case?
42:35 How risky will discovery be for Twitter?
46:55 Elon's financing risk / what price does the TSLA margin call happen?
50:15 Can Elon walk if Tesla stock blows up?
53:40 Will TWTR's board fold?
1:01:00 What if Elon losses and still refuses to perform?
1:03:45 Potential for an activist like Carl Icahn to get involved
1:06:00 Why a mediation and slight price cut might be the most likely outcome
1:09:50 What's the downside if Twitter loses?
1:13:00 Event path odds

Alex Morris (TSOH) on $NFLX, $DIS, and the media space (podcast #108) May 20, 2022

Show notes

Ales Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, returns to the podcast to discuss all things media, including his investment in Disney and Netflix.
Alex's first podcast appearance on Spotify: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1388122956837097482?s=20
Alex's / TSOH substack: https://thescienceofhitting.com
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:55 What's going on in media?
6:15 What is the market missing with its media bearishness?
8:45 Is media too competitive to invest in?
14:35 Why is Netflix having a problem with breakout hits?
18:30 Can you trust these companies when they say "trust us"?
20:30 Is it true that Alex is a Marvel hater?
22:30 NFLX's move into ad supported
30:05 NFLX's (and the industry's) rising churn
35:00 Why is DIS bundling when everyone else is consolidating into one product?
38:05 Why hasn't Seinfeld broken out on NFLX?
42:30 ESPN's streaming future
49:00 Can you really make a profit streaming sports?
54:15 Is Marvel fatigue real?
58:50 Disney parks
1:01:50 Opportunity cost of investing in DIS vs NFLX vs CMCSA (or something else)
1:06:35 Berkshire buying Paramount

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