Yet Another Value Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Research Management on Offshore and Tidewater $TDW Jan 09, 2023

Show notes

Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.

Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view

Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now?
5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014
10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon
18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates
21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike
25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players?
30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle?
36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill
39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics
42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy
46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore?
54:40 Haven't the stocks already run?
59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?

Tidewater's management on the offshore inflection $TDW Jan 06, 2023

Show notes

The management team from Tidewater Offshore (TDW) comes on the podcast to discuss Tidewater and why we could be at an inflection point for the offshore space.

TDW's investor relations page (with investor deck): https://investor.tdw.com/overview/default.aspx

December OSV market report (from seabrokers): https://www.seabrokers.no/wp-content/uploads/SEABREEZE_December.pdf

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:50 What's different in the current cycle?
8:00 Why supply is so limited in offshore
13:10 What is TDW seeing on the demand side?
26:00 Discussing TDW's valuation and where earnings can go as rates rise
32:30 TDW's potential utilization 38:10 EBITDA to free cash flow conversion
43:00 What do day rates look like right now?
47:10 How has TDW set up their fleet to take advantage of rising rates?
51:10 But seriously.... why is this time different?
57:30 How low would oil prices need to go to start impacting offshore drilling demand?
59:00 TDW capital allocation going forward

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets December 2022 Dec 22, 2022

Show notes

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in December 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including updates on ATVI, why pre-arb was so bad in 2022, and WLFC's proposed takeout.

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:30 What's on Chris's mind
4:00 Discussing why "pre-arb" didn't work in 2022
11:20 Updating ATVI
21:00 Majority takeouts of minorities
29:45 WLFC takeout
37:20 AMZN's IRBT takeout

Lionel Hutz on Liquidia's patent battle $LQDA Dec 19, 2022

Show notes

Lionel Hutz discusses his thesis for Liquidia (LQDA) and why the thinks they are likely to win their patent battle against United Therapeutics (UTHR).

Lionel's LQDA write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/waiting-with-bated-breath-for-liquidia

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:50 LQDA overview
8:05 Diving into the patent background
16:10 Breaking down the conflicting rulings on the '793 patent
19:55 Why the PTAB ruling is the most important for '793
21:55 What's so unique about the judge's ruling on '793
28:30 Why PTAB ruled the '793 patent invalid
37:40 LQDA's primary argument for invalidating '793
43:30 Discussing the expert reports around the '793 patent
53:30 Timeline to monetization and why delaying LQDA is so important for UTHR
59:00 LQDA's upside if they win
1:13:00 LQDA's cash runway

Mordechai Yavneh on Silicon Motion $SIMO Dec 15, 2022

Show notes

Mordechai Yavneh, founder and PM at Focus Capital, discusses his investment in Silicon Motion (SIMO) and why he thinks it's "merger arb for people who don't like merger arb."

Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:40 Why SIMO is different than normal merger arbitrage
6:00 More SIMO overview
11:25 Is the merger overhang impacting SIMO's price?
15:30 Discussing SIMO's fundamentals
21:30 Why companies are outsourcing to SIMO
25:50 Why SIMO is taking share
31:30 Breaking down SIMO's market share
34:15 Why SIMO's demand dynamics aren't like MU's
40:20 SIMO's proxy projections and fundamentals
45:35 How Mordechai looks at SIMO's fundamental value
52:15 Why MXL wanted to buy SIMO
57:00 Why SIMO saw some customer churn in ~2018
1:00:00 What are the odds the SIMO deal goes through?
1:03:45 Capital allocation in a potential deal break

Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors on CoreCard $CCRD Dec 12, 2022

Show notes

Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors joins the pod to talk about CoreCard (CCRD). Key topics include the risks and opportunities from their Apple Card / GS relationship and the benefits of the CEO’s measured growth approach.

Chapters:

0:00 Intro
3:30 Avi's framework for evaluating stocks
22:45 How Avi found CCRD
24:35 CCRD's background
32:00 Discussing the GS relationship and concentration
36:50 CCRD's different revenue lines
40:50 Discussing the "Elephant in the room" (BB article on Apple trying to in house)
50:00 Could GS buy CCRD?
52:45 CCRD's valuation
59:00 What makes CCRD's product "premium"?
1:05:00 CCRD's approach to share repurchases
1:06:15 A little more on CCRD's management and history
1:10:30 Avi's closing thoughts

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management on Lamb Weston $LW Dec 08, 2022

Show notes

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management discussed his thesis for Lamb Weston (LW). LW is a very strong business, and AJ thinks the market is missing just how much margin upside there is as COVID era deals with large customers reprice and the company laps 2021’s disastrous potato crop.

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:25 LW Overview
9:35 LW Valuation
13:00 Isn't LW fully valued at these prices?
19:25 Discussing the current potato crop
26:55 Global margin upside
28:35 Why is scale an advantage for LW?
31:45 Why will LW's margins accelerate now?
34:30 Industry demand and supply dynamics
37:20 Capital allocation and share buybacks
41:30 Management incentives and share price targets
45:00 Potential private equity or BRK end games
48:10 A little more discussion on LW's potential P/E multiple
51:10 What happens if we have a low carb craze again?

Half Moon Capital on Oxford Industries $OXM Dec 05, 2022

Show notes

The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come on the pod to discuss their thesis on Oxford Industries (OXM). OXM owns the Tommy Bahama and Lily Pulitzer brands, and Half Moon thinks the market is underestimating the strength of those brands for a variety of reasons.

Half Moon's OXM thesis: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:aec0338f-33d0-4e35-b956-ac6aa024167a?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:20 OXM overview
5:00 Tommy Bahama brand strength
8:55 Could Tommy Bahama follow the LULU brand path?
16:05 OXM's valuation
22:10 Did Tommy Bahama over-earn during COVID?
28:00 OXM management 36:10 Capital Allocation and OXM's recent Johnny Was acquisition
38:30 CROX HEYDUDE acquisition and learnings for OXM
43:10 A little more on Tommy Bahama and the California branded hotel
47:30 OXM's margins and current competitive environment
53:30 Tommy Bahama's inventory risk

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets November 2022 Dec 01, 2022

Show notes

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to provide his state of the markets for November 2022, including what's happened with TWTR since the deal closed, FTX's implosion, and a quick run down of a few other merger arb situations.

Chapters

0:00 Intro
2:50 What's going on with TWTR since the deal?
13:50 FTX's implosion
35:30 Chris's current thoughts on crypto
41:15 Walking through some merger situations

Michael Fritzell from Asian Century Stocks on Casio Computer Nov 21, 2022

Show notes

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on Casio Computer. Casio makes the popular G-Shock watches, and Michael thinks their rising popularity and a low valuation make for an interesting set up.

Michael's Casio write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/fb1ac5f5-9ce9-4c56-a930-874d1f73f4c8

Chapters

0:00 Intro
3:00 Casio Overview
6:30 Are watches a dying business?
12:55 Is Casio hitting an inflection point?
18:30 Who's buying G-Shock?
20:00 Casio's valuation
25:00 Does Casio have enough upside?
28:30 Is management really willing to drive shareholder value?
31:00 Do watches make for a good D2C business?

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