Yet Another Value Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Brian Finn from Findell Capital is back to dissect $CUTR and $OPRT May 15, 2023

Show notes

Brian Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast in the quickest turnaround in the show's history, and for good reason. Following earnings calls from $CUTR (idea recently discussed with Vince Martin, link below) and $OPRT (idea discussed on Brian's first appearance, link below), there was a ton information to dissect.

Link to last podcast on $CUTR: https://youtu.be/LVqVzbAohus

Link to last podcast on $OPRT: https://youtu.be/xoxdSl3FwOk

Findell Capital Management Letter to the Oportun (3/29/2023): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e17f2a118561f6339437f24/t/64240b4f0cf8705352d472b7/1680083791192/Findell+letter+to+OPRT.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:38] Update on $CUTR following earnings, new board slate

[9:27] What happened on the $CUTR earnings call, who's on the new board slate and CEO candidates

[15:33] $CUTR cash burn and potential financing needs going forward

[19:30] What happens with the $CUTR former CEO and former Chairman

[23:39] How do you assign a value to $CUTR when looking at the potential upside with AviClear product

[31:22] How $CUTR is dealing with management and board turnover

[36:50] Final thoughts on $CUTR

[39:00] Quick update on $OPRT following earnings call

[43:24] How has regional banking "crisis" affected $OPRT

[47:49] Thoughts on Tidewater earnings

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Doug O'Laughlin from Fabricated Knowledge on management incentives at $APP May 08, 2023

Show notes

Doug O'Laughlin, Founder and Editor of the Fabricated Knowledge and Mule's Musings Newsletter, joins the Yet Another Value Podcast for the 3rd time to discuss AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP). Doug became excited about the idea and wanted to come on to chat about it because a very aggressive PSU that recently happened at AppLovin, and what these management incentives could mean for the business. For more information about Doug O'Laughlin and his newsletters, please visit:

Fabricated Knowledge: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/

Mule's Musings: https://mulesmusings.substack.com

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[2:17] Overview of AppLovin $APP

[4:50] What does IDFA means and why this is important when looking at $APP, understanding "Mediation"

[13:19] $APP's business model and their portfolio of hyper-casual games

[20:41] Unity and ironSource deal and how that affected AppLovin $APP

[26:22] $APP valuation

[29:30] What is the market missing about $APP?

[32:52] Share buybacks

[36:36] PSU grants and management incentives

[39:32] What concerns Doug the most about $APP

[40:23] Industry headwinds (ad rates getting crushed throughout 2022)

[42:58] $APP corporate governance, acquisition hit rate, incentives

[52:37] Strategic optionality of selling the games business and AI lever

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets for April 2023 May 02, 2023

Show notes

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this April 2023 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on the Spectrum Brands antitrust lawsuit, thoughts on Activision Microsoft following the CMA unexpectedly ruled against the deal, and the Wells Notice sent to Coinbase.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:36] What's on Chris' mind for April 2023: AMC, Coinbase, Spectrum Brands, Greyscale Trust

[2:33] Spectrum Brands antitrust lawsuit

[15:36] Understanding the value on Spectrum Brands if they win or lose the case

[23:27] The politics behind the Spectrum Brands case

[28:27] Thoughts on Activision Microsoft following the CMA unexpectedly ruled against the deal

[34:40] Does Activision want extend the walk date?

[37:09] What is a Wells Notice, the Wells Notice sent to Coinbase, their response to the Wells Notice

[42:44] What is the timeline and enforcement process now after sending the Wells Notice to Coinbase

[46:33] Politics on both sides of the Coinbase argument

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Jay Van Sciver shares his thoughts on Industrials and Materials for 2023 Apr 24, 2023

Show notes

Jay Van Sciver, Head of Industrials and Materials at Hedgeye, shares his thoughts on industrials and materials in 2023. Automobiles, Elon Musk, rails, Norfolk Southern, geopolitical commodities landscape - this podcast runs the gamut; tune in to hear Jay's takes on it all.

For more information about Hedgeye, please visit: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Hedgeye

[1:07] Industrial Sector overview: quick takes on VW, Porsche and other auto makers

[5:31] Additional thoughts on Volkswagen and Lucid

[7:53] Corporate governance issues: specifically referring to Jay's take on Elon Musk

[13:27] Brand awareness of Tesla vs other EV brands

[19:40] Is now the right time to short Tesla?

[25:32] Why does the Porsche short trade exist?

[30:55] Jay's bearish case for Uber

[38:25] Additional thoughts on industrials, specifically, Jay's thoughts on rails

[44:20] Understanding Rails' valuations

[48:05] Opportunity in Norfolk Southern?

[48:59] Materials Jay is looking at

[52:52] Closing remarks

Today's episode is sponsored by: Hedgeye

This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye does fantastic work, and I think that shines through in the conversation we have today. If you like the conversation and are interested in learning more, please check out hedgeye at hedgeye.com

Vince Martin on the "Game of Thrones" style proxy fight at $CUTR Apr 19, 2023

Show notes

Vince Martin, Lead Analyst and Writer at the Overlooked Alpha newsletter, discusses the "Game of Thrones" style proxy fight happening at $CUTR. For more information about the Overlooked Alpha newsletter, please visit: https://www.overlookedalpha.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[2:06] What is Cutera $CUTR - An Overview

[3:33] Cutera's acne products

[5:44] Sales strategy for acne products and how that panned out

[8:35] Understanding to potential stickiness for AviClear and comparables

[11:13] Proxy fight

[15:21] Dynamics between CEO and Executive Chairman

[21:40] Market response to board's decisions; specifically withdrawing 2023 guidance

[25:00] Unique gamesmanship

[27:44] More on withdrawing guidance; that could've been a tool for the board

[30:50] How two biggest shareholders seem to not support the board's decision to fire the CEO and Executive Chairman

[34:12] Executive Chairman's background; what's his angle and potential reasons for why he wants to become CEO

[37:56] Board of Directors' potential paths to winning

[42:50] How odd this proxy fight really is; as Andrew puts it, very "Game of Thrones"

[46:27] Most likely outcome of the $CUTR proxy fight

[48:03] Does every see a "golden goose" or value destruction?

[51:37] Closing thoughts on $CUTR and valuation Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Brian Finn from Findell Capital on his letter to Oportun Financial $OPRT Apr 13, 2023

Show notes

Brian Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, discusses the letter he sent to Oportun Financial's board (NASDAQ: OPRT). Since Oportun's September 2019 IPO, shares have fallen -85%, falling well behind competitor, OneMain Holdings (OMF). In addition, costs have exploded higher and acquisitions have proved disastrous. Findell Capital Management Letter to the Oportun (Nasdaq: OPRT) Board of Directors (3/29/2023): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e17f2a118561f6339437f24/t/64240b4f0cf8705352d472b7/1680083791192/Findell+letter+to+OPRT.pdf Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:50] Oportun Financial overview and why Findell Capital sent a letter to OPRT's board of directors

[9:20] What is the $OPRT Board of Directors doing? What is the incentive structure?

[11:45] Understanding $OPRT's subprime lending business for underbanked folks

[15:32] Comparing $OPRT to competitors like OneMain

[24:20] Unpacking $OPRT valuation

[28:29] How Oportun's corporate strategy is wrong

[30:38] $OPRT valuation cont'd - what is the fair value of the loans + cost of financing

[34:29] $OPRT Q4 2022 earnings call

[38:54] Next steps following Findell's sending of the letter

[43:01] Why $OPRT should be private or run by PE

[44:51] Closing thoughts on $OPRT

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Artem Fokin's take on Burford's YPF summary judgement ruling $BUR Apr 10, 2023

Show notes

Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the third time) to update his thesis on Burfurd (BUR) on the heels of their big YPF summary judgement ruling against Argentina.

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0

Muddy Waters BUR case: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bur/mw-is-short/

Artem's response: http://caro-kann-capital.com/pdf/2019_09_09_Burford_Muddy_Waters_Dreams_of_Black_Cat_That_Just_Is_Not_There_by_Caro-Kann_Capital.pdf Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[2:33] Initial thoughts on Burford on the heels of the YPF summary judgement ruling

[6:30] How winning this case validates the Burford business

[9:03] Why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?

[16:25] Cont'd on why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?

[21:26] Understanding the mechanics of the waterfall payments

[30:37] Largest risks to Burford now; odds Argentina wins on appeal?

[33:39] Clarifying the mechanics of an appeal

[36:48] Estimated proceeds the Burford can actually collect

[44:59] What kind of cash flow is going to come into the company?

[55:13] Burford's asset recovery business

[59:04] Argentina's options if they want to stay in the international business community

[1:01:28] Capital allocation plans Burford could do

[1:06:42] Monetizing stakes

[1:17:31] Thoughts on this SEC fair value discussion they're having

[1:22:32] Quick update on Burford's business Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Michael Liu on why he thinks Cogstate $COGZF is a great business wrapped in a special situation play Apr 03, 2023

Show notes

Michael Liu, Analyst at Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, discusses Cogstate (ASX: CGS) / (OTCQX: COGZF). Cogstate provides computerized cognitive tests for Alzheimer's clinical trials. Michael came on to discuss his thesis on Cogstate and how a failed takeover attempt could create an interesting special situation.

For more information about Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, please visit: https://if.capital/

You can Follow Michael Liu on Twitter @michael20171 : https://twitter.com/michael2017l

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:51] What is Cogstate and why are they interesting?

[6:21] Cogstate Fundamentals

[8:01] Why doesn't large pharma, like Biogen, develop these cognitive tests on their own?

[10:38] Cogstate value proposition

[12:04] Does Cogstate control all the data from the clinical trials?

[12:47] Alternative to Cogstate's computerized cognitive tests (pen and paper tests), and understanding competitive landscape

[16:08] Current Cogstate market share for their tests vs. pen and paper tests

[18:12] Growth in Alzheimer's research and diversifying revenues outside of big Phase II and Phase III clinical trials for Alzheimer's drugs

[21:30] Additional R&D post-approval of Alzheimer's drugs (what this means for Cogstate)

[25:55] Valuation

[29:53] Bookings and revenue recognition (and how that relates to thinking about valuation)

[33:44] What caused to the stock to plummet earlier this year February 2023

[35:43] Gaming out why the buyout didn't happen

[36:44] Management background

[39:16] Recent insider buys and understanding why this happened today vs months ago

[43:07] Who the buyers could be for Cogstate

[46:18] Closing thoughts on Cogstate - recent buyouts in the Australian space

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets for March 2023 Mar 31, 2023

Show notes

It's the end of the month, which means its time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. March 2023 was a doozy, so a lot to breakdown here, including: banking crises, thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice, mergers hanging in the balance (JetBlue/Spirit & Microsoft/Activision Blizzard), and more!

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Show notes:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:40] What's on Chris' mind for March 2023: Banks, Energy, Crypto, Government public policy reaction, plus more!

[3:05] Volatility in Banking

[6:27] First Republic

[7:33] Public policy response to 2023 banking crises

[11:46] Chris' thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice & policy

[12:56] Why SEC paying closer attention to Coinbase now?

[15:57] Andrew's three reasons holding him back from rushing into regional/community bank stocks + Chris' concerns

[23:26] JetBlue Spirit deal and trend towards government agencies taking a more aggressive stance on blocking mergers

[27:32] JetBlue Spirit cont'd: How do they get in a situation where it seems so clear to you and me that this was going to be a regulatory problem? How do they get in a situation where they were in this regulatory issue?

[34:00] Microsoft - Activision Blizzard merger deal

[37:15] Timeline for merger trial

[40:56] Closing thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Alex Morris provides 2023 overview on Cable and what makes Media so attractive Mar 28, 2023

Show notes

Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, returns to Yet Another Value Podcast for the third time to chat with Andrew about the Media and Cable sectors in 2023. The Media and Cable sectors move at a mile a minute and it was time to have Alex back on to sift through all the noise. This conversation covers everything from: how mobile carriers think about fixed wireless, Charter vs. Cable One & T-Mobile, does Disney have an IP problem, and much more.

For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/

You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing

Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Daloopa

[2:22] Media and Cable space - high level thoughts on 2022/beginning of 2023

[4:30] Rewinding to better understand current media/cable infrastructure and how Alex thinks about fixed wireless

[8:57] How mobile carriers talking about fixed wireless

[12:08] Why Alex has Charter and Comcast in his portfolio?

[14:43] How does Alex think about Comcast being potentially being valued with conglomerate discount?

[19:05] Charter vs. Cable One and Charter vs. T-Mobile

[23:11] A bit more on T-Mobile

[27:54] Why Alex thinks you can achieve risk-adjusted alpha investing in Charter?

[31:53] Understanding Charter's CAPEX story

[33:45] Cable assets, Fiber assets + M&A

[37:09] Final thoughts on Cable/Fiber conversation

[40:06] What Alex is seeing in the Media business that is so attractive

[43:53] Does Disney have an IP problem?

[48:28] Taking a look at the state of Netflix - do they need a merger partner or to buy something?

[51:37] Making the case that Netflix is a risk-adjusted alpha generator

[54:32] Final thoughts This podcast is brought to you by Daloopa.

Daloopa was founded by a former hedge fund analyst. He didn’t have a tool that he trusted to be 99.9% accurate that allowed him to pull updates directly into his existing models, and had the granularity in KPIs, Guidance, and non-GAAP adjustments that he needed. So, he built Daloopa. Daloopa is the fastest growing source for public company data, with data available for over 3,000 companies. Hundreds of AI algorithms collect and organize customized company historicals with an accuracy level and depth of data that is higher than anything achievable by other modeling tools. Each datapoint is auditable to the source. Daloopa’s Excel plugin is the first to allow you to update your models in your existing format. It’s simple and non-invasive—Daloopa will never #REF out your models. Daloopa clients are able to cover more opportunities and generate more ideas. No more data errors, no more Excel monkeying, just the fundamentals. See why equity investors are switching to Daloopa by checking them out at Daloopa.com/YAVP.

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