Yet Another Value Podcast

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Greystone Capital Management's Adam Wilk on $SYZ.TO resurgence following corporate overhaul Dec 27, 2023

Show notes

Adam Wilk, CFA, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Greystone Capital Management, LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Sylogist (TSX: SYZ), provider of mission-critical SaaS solutions to over 2,000 public sector customers globally across the government, nonprofit, and education verticals.

For more information about Greystone Capital Management, please visit: https://www.greystonevalue.com/

Sylogist write-up in Q1 2023 Letter: https://www.greystonevalue.com/_files/ugd/47fd79_4bc7a737390344ceb68d07367503b878.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:32] Overview of Sylogist (TSX: SYZ) and why Adam finds it interesting

[9:00] $SYZ.TO strategic review and why pivoted the way they did

[15:49] How $SYZ.TO has evolved over last few years

[18:31] How $SYZ.TO management team is incentivized

[21:41] How is $SYZ.TO beating larger competitors for business / how is transitioning from "on-premises" to cloud offering creating growth? / Pricing power

[30:11] Microsoft partnership

[34:28] Focus on nonprofit and government verticals; value proposition for these target customers / biggest competitor

[38:36] Nonprofit space / Government ERPs

[42:20] $SYZ.TO earnings, specifically on EBITDA

[49:01] Thoughts on what CEO meant when he said "We're stepping on the gas for growth in 2024" on the Q3 call

[52:36] $SYZ.TO valuation and final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

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Creek Drive Capital's Kevin Mak introduces the business case for Sphere Entertainment $SPHR Dec 22, 2023

Show notes

Kevin Mak, CFA, Founder of Creek Drive Capital and Teacher at Stanford University of a course called, Financial Trading Strategy, discusses his thesis on Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR).

Link to Kevin's $SPHR thesis: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_jGx22O8NWRlb8zZZmuqMwfa-Ae3Y55o/view

Twitter: https://twitter.com/KevinLMak

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:17] Sphere Entertainment Co. $SPHR and why it's interesting to Kevin

[3:36] Kevin's views on $MSGN and why that's relevant for $SPHR

[8:56] How Kevin values $SPHR

[15:20] More important from a revenue perspective: Residencies or Daily Airing of "Postcards"

[17:13] Sustainability of the movies at $SPHR / how much better is $SPHR than a quality IMAX?

[26:35] $SPHR customer demand

[29:10] $SPHR music residency economics / logistics / creating the buzz

[38:30] $SPHR customer draw as technology improves

[40:52] Outside revenue streams (ad revenue on outside of the Sphere) / cost to create an ad for the Sphere (Billboard comp) + economics of the Sphere

[47:51] Main difference between Kevin's $SPHR analysis and sell-side analyst targets

[49:58] Corporate governance and naming rights

[52:39] Capex

[56:04] Valuing the franchise model and pushback on multiple Sphere's - how do you find the right markets for Sphere + why did London turn down the Sphere

[1:03:25] Convertible debt / $SPHR valuation

[1:08:12] $SPHR final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

Saber Capital Management's John Huber describes inevitable retail winners + $FND thesis Dec 20, 2023

Show notes

John Huber, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Saber Capital Management, joins the podcast today to describe the concept "Inevitable Retail Winners", characteristics of inevitability, as well as talking through many different examples that exemplify this concept. In addition, John shares his thesis on Floor & Decor (NYSE: FND).

For more information about Saber Capital Management, please visit: https://sabercapitalmgt.com/home/

Article from Base Hit Investing: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/munger-podcast-thoughts-retail-stocks

YAV blog post on retail: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/cyber-monday-thoughts-part-1-retail

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:55] What is an "inevitable retail winner" and Charlie Munger's thoughts on this

[10:19] Restaurants

[12:34] Various retail companies mentioned, are they "inevitable retail winners"; characteristics of "inevitability" - using AutoZone as an example as well

[22:09] Retail management and culture

[27:33] Floor & Decor $FND: what is their moat? / customer experience / why inventory is a moat

[38:55] Pro vs. DIY customer spend / comment on ROIC on new stores / does $FND want to own their own stores

[45:14] Macro impact on $FND?

[51:14] $FND valuation

[58:20] $FND described as a "category killer"

[1:00:21] $FND risks

[1:03:36] Any difference in $FND pre vs. post IPO + mistakes management made in the past

[1:07:16] Push back on $FND thesis: recent acquisitions and "category killer"

[1:11:32] Any other retails that John thinks has a chance to be inevitable or he thinks that a lot of investors talk about in this "inevitable" way

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

Valorem Research's Lionel Hutz provides his Spirit / JetBlue post-trial breakdown Dec 20, 2023

Show notes

Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Valorem Research Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to provide his Spirit / JetBlue post-trial breakdown.

For more information about Valorem Research and to subscribe, please visit: https://www.valoremresearch.com/ Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:44] General takeaways from Spirit / JetBlue post-trial and post-trial briefs

[7:56] DOJ's case, what citing of Philadelphia National and Baker Hughes cases as precedents means

[13:17] Harm to local markets - thoughts on this framework as it applies to the bear case

[16:04] JetBlue's "having it both ways" arguments and where Lionel thinks JetBlue scored points with their arguments

[23:21] 51 presumptive markets and how they are relevant to this case + the government's skepticism of divestitures

[33:20] How JetBlue and the government handled the expert witness, what deficiencies that JetBlue finds with the government witnesses

[39:39] Government's points regarding the hot docs

[42:40] How precedent being used to support both sides of the case

[50:03] Evidence supporting JetBlue's position and evidence supporting DOJ's position

[57:26] The fourth bear case on relevant markets

[1:03:35] Timing on ruling

[1:12:33] Legacy of the outcome for this case

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

Far View Capital Management's Brad Hathaway talks the compelling setup at $DSGR Dec 15, 2023

Show notes

Brad Hathaway, Managing Partner of Far View Capital Management, joins the podcast today to discuss what he thinks is a compelling setup at Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: DSGR), a premier multi-platform specialty distribution company providing high touch, value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair & operations (MRO), the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and the industrial technologies markets.

For more information about Far View Capital Management, please visit: https://www.farviewcapitalmgmt.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[3:11] Quick overview of Distribution Solutions Group $DSGR and why it's interesting to Brad

[4:40] Overall $DSGR setup, starting with rights offering

[7:07] $DSGR business overview (all three businesses), direct comps, competitive sales advantage, customer retention

[19:51] $DSGR transaction (LKCM involvement) and why do all three businesses belong together?

[29:23] $DSGR thesis and LKCM's history with specialty distributors

[36:20] $DSGR valuation, what type of organic growth would $DSGR show without future acquisition, how much of the industry is still in-house, roll-up strategy multiple

[46:00] Scaling $DSGR business, capital allocation and tail risks

[57:22] Scaled specialty distributor that has not worked

[1:01:11] Path to liquidity, management and LKCM alignment

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

Valorem Research's Lionel Hutz talks LQDA v. UTHR hearing at the Federal Circuit + argument review Dec 11, 2023

Show notes

Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Valorem Research Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to discuss the Liquidia vs. UTHR hearing at the Federal Circuit that took place on Monday, December 4, 2023.

Lionel's LQDA write up: https://www.valoremresearch.com/p/lqda-v-uthr-premium-update

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:35] What was the $LQDA hearing recently on Monday, December 4, 2023, and Lionel's initial thoughts on the hearing

[6:16] Arguments UTHR was drilling down on

[10:14] How Lionel thinks of the quality of UTHR's arguments

[13:56] Judge performance and thoughts on their performance during the hearing

[27:00] Question from Judge for LQDA about dissemination of abstracts / would we have this problem of dissemination if that conference was in 2023 vs 2004

[37:26] Next steps post-hearing: reversal or remanding, if remanding (sending back to the PTAB court) - what is the most likely issue, if reversal - what is the most likely reason

[49:02] Odds on outcome of the $LQDA hearing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

ICLE's Chief Economist Brian Albrecht evaluates $24.6 billion Kroger-Albertsons transaction Dec 08, 2023

Show notes

Brian Albrecht, Chief Economist of the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE), joins the podcast today to discuss ICLE's paper on the $24.6 billion Kroger-Albertsons transaction.

ICLE Paper on Kroger / Albertson's merger: https://laweconcenter.org/icle-on-kroger-albertsons/

White paper: https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Kroger-Albertsons-Merger-Full-Paper.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:32] Overview of ICLE (International Center for Law & Economics) and Brian's background

[3:12] Kroger / Albertson's merger - how Brian is thinking about this potential merger

[6:55] FTC's analytical framework

[10:58] Why government hasn't brought more suits in grocery industry

[14:34] Should precedent be updated?

[24:05] Why shouldn't market shares matter?

[28:30] How have delivery services changed the market index & wrap-up on wholesale clubs, competition

[33:05] Divestitures

[39:26] Specific divestiture package - Haggen's example

[46:20] Waterbed effect - why this is or isn't an antitrust concern

[51:44] Regional power vs. local power with retail workers

[59:01] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

MDC Financial Research's Michael Cohen post-closing arguments update on $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial Dec 07, 2023

Show notes

Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the second time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial now that closing arguments have been made. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #204, Michael's first appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:41] Update since half-time report: overall thoughts on trial now that we have had closing arguments - $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial

[3:55] $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial closing arguments

[11:04] Feel for how Judge is likely to craft opinion on the case

[14:20] Potential additional remedies to get merger over the hurdle

[17:02] Market definition and timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers)

[23:41] Step 3: the burden of proof from the DOJ, showing there is harm to consumers

[24:32] Cont'd: timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers

[27:51] United Airlines testimony

[35:03] Commentary on Spirit's survivability if merger doesn't go through

[41:38] JetBlue's second expert witness

[43:43] Dr. Chipley's testimony

[45:54] Closing arguments cont'd: competition be preserved

[48:02] Closing arguments cont'd: balance of nationwide benefit vs. local harm

[52:28] Main divergence of opinion based on being in the courtroom

[56:52] Hot docs

[59:05] Odds of merger going through closes vs. failing vs. re-pricing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

Raper Capital's Jeremy Raper expounds on his letter to Bragg Gaming $BRAG Dec 05, 2023

Show notes

Jeremy Raper, Founder of Raper Capital, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss Bragg Gaming (NASDAQ: BRAG / TSX: BRAG), a global B2B content-driven iGaming technology provider. On November 22, 2023, Jeremy published "An Open Letter to the Chair of the Board of Bragg Gaming Group." on his website (link below), where he outlines strategic alternatives for the company. Jeremy and Andrew close out with Jeremy's take on the Spirit / JetBlue trial.

For more information about Jeremy Raper and Raper Capital, please visit: https://rapercapital.com/

Jeremy's Letter to $BRAG management: https://rapercapital.com/2023/11/22/an-open-letter-to-the-chair-of-the-board-of-bragg-gaming-group/ Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:55] Jeremy's Letter to the Board of Bragg Gaming $BRAG; company/thesis background and why Jeremy wrote and sent the letter

[17:20] Who is the right buyer for $BRAG?

[24:51] $BRAG financing in September 2022

[31:14] $BRAG CEO and management performance

[37:55] $BRAG final thoughts

[38:35] Jeremy's take on Spirit / JetBlue trial

[44:13] How Spirit / JetBlue trial compares to Twitter / Elon case

[47:23] Spirit / JetBlue bear case

[50:10] How Spirit / JetBlue case affects Hawaiian Airlines and Alaskan Airlines merger

[54:11] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets November 2023 Dec 02, 2023

Show notes

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this November 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the opacity and aggression of the FTC, how he is thinking about the Spirit trial, Amazon / iRobot deal and reflections on Charlie Munger.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[2:07] What is on Chris' mind this month: M&A, arbitrage, anti-trust, recent podcast with Lena Khan, Chair of the FTC

[7:49] How Chris is thinking about the Spirit trial, and the implications if the merger does not go through

[21:07] Spirit trial: airplane shortages and expert witnesses

[29:35] Spirit / JetBlue bear argument about hot docs

[33:47] Amazon / iRobot deal

[40:16] Final thoughts: reflections on Charlie Munger

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense