Yet Another Value Podcast

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Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets March 2024 Apr 02, 2024

Show notes

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this March 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on meme stocks being back in vogue, $DJT, is speculation back in the market right now, small caps due for some revenge, crypto, bitcoin halving and SBF sentencing.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review

[2:14] Chris' high level thoughts as we conclude March 2024

[3:35] Meme stocks back in vogue / $DJT

[7:31] Deeper dive on $DJT / monetizing celebrity

[14:54] Is speculation back?

[18:09] Small caps due for some revenge?

[23:40] Crypto, bitcoin halving, performance since launch of ETFs

[32:06] SBF sentencing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review

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Lake Cornelia Research's Judd Arnold describes MiX Telematics $MIXT and Powerfleet $PWFL merger Mar 27, 2024

Show notes

Judd Arnold, Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake, joins the podcast to discuss the MiX Telematics $MIXT and Powerfleet $PWFL merger.

$PWFL / $MIXT Memo: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eONP4_CF6UPAKXYuZiDedUt2jRimujTa/view

For more information for Lake Cornelia Research Management and Judd Arnold, you can can Follow on Twitter/X @CorneliaLake: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:53] Overview of $MIXT / $PWFL

[10:18] Why $MIXT / $PWFL merger is so interesting to Judd

[21:21] Pushback on the bull case for the merger

[27:56] Switching costs / AI

[34:22] Open vs. closed systems

[37:38] Management and incentives

[48:44] Management's comments and vision post-deal

[53:58] Thoughtful pushback Judd has received on thesis

[59:20] Merger background

[1:07:26] Why Judd publishes these long notes? Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research. From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights. Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost. You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact. Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research. To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

Matt Warder shares state of the coal markets + $AMR $HCC Mar 26, 2024

Show notes

Matt Warder, @mfwarder on Twitter/X, joins the podcast to discuss all things Coal, including: high level thoughts on coal, investing narrative from last few years, regulation, "greening" of metallurgical coal, $AMR, $HCC, upcoming election's impact on coal investment case and more!

You can Follow Matt Warder on Twitter/X @mfwarder: https://twitter.com/mfwarder

Range Global Resources Coal ETF: https://rangeetfs.com/coal

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction

[1:27] High level thoughts on Coal

[6:07] Coal's investment narrative from last few years

[12:50] "Commodities don't die down, they die up" / down cycle in thermal coal

[16:07] Biden admin on coal

[21:38] Metallurgical coal ideas

[26:17] Global cost curve for metallurgical coal "met coal" / are we mining less efficiently?

[35:41] "Greening" of metallurgical coal?

[42:53] Domestic coal plays $AMR

[48:54] $HCC / Blue Creek Mine

[57:17] Does upcoming election matter for the coal investment case

[1:00:28] $HCC $AMR valuations

[1:06:09] Final thoughts on coal

Broyhill Asset Management's Chris Pavese on $AVTR, pick and shovel play for life sciences Mar 21, 2024

Show notes

Christopher Pavese, President & Chief Investment Officer at Broyhill Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss Avantor, Inc. (NYSE: AVTR), a leading global provider of mission-critical products and services to customers in the life sciences and advanced technology industries.

For more information about Broyhill Asset Management, please visit: https://www.broyhillasset.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:35] As a generalist, how Chris and team arrived looking at healthcare + GLP-1 tangent

[9:16] Overview of Avantor, Inc. $AVTR and why it's interesting to Chris

[13:56] Laboratory Solutions (accounts for 2/3's of $AVTR revs) / how embedded is $AVTR with customer base (CDMO business)

[20:19] VWR acquisition

[23:02] Disconnect between reported numbers and large cap comparisons / understanding cyclicality in life sciences/healthcare

[32:36] Variant opinion that generates alpha in $AVTR

[37:14] Why not own $TMO or $DHR over $AVTR?

[42:06] Capital allocation and M&A

[46:22] Build vs. sell

[48:35] Recovery story: bull or base case when $AVTR shared guidance

[54:01] Return on due diligence work with $AVTR, perception as a complicated business

[1:02:04] Tail risks

[1:06:39] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

Gator Capital Management's Derek Pilecki shares his thoughts on Banks and Financials in 2024 Mar 18, 2024

Show notes

Derek Pilecki, CFA, Managing Member and Portfolio Manager at Gator Capital Management, joins the podcast to have a general conversation about the Financial Sector: banks, crypto and more!

For more information about Gator Capital Management, please visit: https://gatorcapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:49] What's most interesting to Derek in Financials sector today / $NYCB / Valley and Western Alliance

[12:28] Western Alliance

[19:43] Capital One and thoughts on Discover merger

[28:36] Overall regulatory environment with banks and financials

[30:51] Election and how that affects banks

[33:26] Robinhood

[41:47] Fannie's and Freddie's

[47:50] $NYCB cont'd.

[50:32] Thoughts on buybacks based on conversations with bank CEO's

[1:01:18] Why Derek thinks banks are below average businesses

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

Plural Investing's Chris Waller shares thesis on industrial roll-up compounder, TerraVest $TVK.TO Mar 14, 2024

Show notes

Chris Waller, Founder and CIO at Plural Investing, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on TerraVest Industries Inc. (TSX: TVK), a manufacturer of home heating products, propane, anhydrous ammonia (“NH3”) and natural gas liquids (“NGL”) transport vehicles and storage vessels, energy processing equipment and fiberglass storage tanks.

For more information about Plural Invest, please visit: https://www.pluralinvesting.com/

Plural Investing write up on TerraVest $TVK.TO: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57eff176e58c621a298bfa61/t/65c1736ea99cbe30a72634d1/1707176815309/Plural+Investing+Report+on+Terravest+%282024.01.24%29.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:54] What is TerraVest and why are they so interesting to Chris

[4:51] Why is TerraVest underfollowed?

[6:47] Why can their acquire at a discount and $TVK.TO's business model, overview, value proposition

[14:21] Propane tank industry / location moat

[19:44] How TerraVest pulls off the reduction in steel costs

[22:27] Why hasn't Private Equity stepped in to roll up the propane tank industry?

[25:48] How does TerraVest get labor cost down?

[29:35] Tanker and Boiler businesses / recent Highland Tanks acquisition

[35:13] Terminal value questions

[40:49] Management, insider ownership and incentives

[44:50] Valuation / Organic growth / How much accretive acquisitions to drive real performance here

[51:29] Cyclicality[54:27] Capital allocation

[57:40] $TVK.TO bear case

[1:00:46] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

Speedwell Research's Drew Cohen shares thesis on FinTwit favorite, Constellation Software $CSU.TO Mar 11, 2024

Show notes

Drew Cohen from Speedwell Research, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Constellation Software (TSX: CSU), who acquires, manages and builds vertical market software businesses.

For more information about Speedwell Research, please visit: https://speedwellresearch.com/

Speedwell Research profile on Constellation Software: https://speedwellresearch.com/companies/reports/constellation-software/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:41] Who is Constellation Software and why are they interesting to Drew

[6:05] How $CSU.TO is scaling their business model / competing with private equity

[13:00] Reverse DCF, deploying capital, competing now with other billion dollar software businesses

[21:02] Mark Leonard - is $CSU.TO a jockey bet / capital allocation / sellers

[28:32] $CSU.TO - what takes this company out

[30:57] AI risk?

[32:52] Price increases / TransDigm comparison / competition risk

[40:08] $CSU.TO vs. parking capital at index fund / likelihood of deploying at least 50% of their cash flow over next 10-ish years

[45:07] Operating synergies with 6 verticals? Why not more spin-offs?

[47:07] Additional worry about $CSU.TO - changing incentive system

[51:58] Aside from Berkshire, what are other examples of Constellation-like culture

[54:57] Speedwell's favorite write-ups he's done recently + quick thoughts on $RH

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets February 2024 Mar 05, 2024

Show notes

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this February 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on New ETF $BOXX, Bitcoin and crypto in general, are we in a $BTC mania and Anti-trust outlook - election proxy (using Capital One / Discover as an example).

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:09] Thoughts on New ETF $BOXX

[18:55] Bitcoin and upcoming "halving" / current thoughts on crypto in general

[30:44] Are we in a $BTC mania?

[33:15] Anti-trust outlook - election proxy? Using Capital One buying Discover as an example

[43:11] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

Aurora Financial's Austin Crites on getting comfortable with The Lovesac Company $LOVE Mar 03, 2024

Show notes

Austin Crites, CIO at Aurora Financial Strategies, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on The Lovesac Company (NASDAQ: LOVE), the home furnishing and technology brand best known for its Sacs, The World's Most Comfortable Seat.

For more information about Aurora Financial Strategies, please visit: https://www.aurorafinancialstrategies.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:35] Overview of Lovesac $LOVE and why are they so interesting to Austin

[5:44] Bear case: One product company + cheap knockoffs

[12:02] Repeat business / Crocs comparison / Reddit and TikTok Lovesac / Target customers

[21:27] Shark Ninja comparison

[26:09] Valuation / Competitive analysis (La-Z-Boy, Restoration Hardware)

[31:07] Inventory turns

[34:56] Short interest

[38:48] Management and insider ownership

[41:27] Barter revenues

[43:43] $LOVE final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus

This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.

From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.

You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.

Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.

To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value

Oxy Capital's Pedro Sousa thesis on high quality, low cost gym facilities in the UK $GYM.L Feb 22, 2024

Show notes

Pedro Sousa, Principal at Oxy Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on The Gym Group plc (LSE: GYM) - founded in 2007, the Gym Group is the original provider of high quality, low cost gym facilities in the UK.

For more information about Oxy Capital, please visit: https://oxycapital.com/homepage/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[2:05] Overview of Gym Group $GYM.L and why it's interesting to Pedro

[9:09] Competitive analysis: Basic-Fit and PureGym

[18:00] Raising prices and margin expansion

[25:40] Replacement cost and margin of safety

[31:29] Discounting of membership in October 2022

[33:42] New CEO in Summer 2023

[37:29] Three-tier pricing membership

[41:14] Normalized earnings levels looks like and free cash flow

[53:18] EBITDA multiples

[56:35] Bear case on $GYM.L

[1:07:28] Final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

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Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo

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