Yet Another Value Podcast

Latest Episodes:

B. Riley's Dan Day describes Supply Side Platform (SSP), CTV + Magnite $MGNI thesis Sep 27, 2023

Show notes

Dan Day, CFA, Equity Research Analyst at B. Riley Securities, joins the podcast today to discuss the digital advertising business, SSPs and his thesis on Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI), the world’s largest independent sell-side advertising company (according the company's website). To get in touch with Dan Day, you can reach him via email here: dday@brileyfin.com

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:35] What is Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI) and why is it interesting to Dan

[8:57] Take rate on SSP's (effectively the bear case on SSPs)

[14:53] Adtech trends since early 2021

[19:11] Brand integrity - how much is that important amongst SSPs

[20:25] $MGNI valuation upside

[23:55] Programmatic recession vs. the stocks were overvalued in 2021

[25:48] CTV - what it means and how it works; why its important to $MGNI

[29:24] Who is $MGNI working with on CTV / competitive landscape

[32:55] $MGNI bear case on programmatic advertising - why don't publishers build out SSPs themselves? How are publishers thinking about building vs. buying SSPs?

[44:25] Anything missed on the Bull or Bear case for $MGNI / stock compensation

[50:07] Google antitrust case - what is the bull case for $MGNI

[59:24] Odds that Google loses this trial and/or splits out SSP

[1:03:58] One thing that market generalists miss regarding $MGNI

[1:08:26] Channel checks on media industry

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

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Artem Fokin discusses Burford winning the YPF case + fundamental thesis post-trial $BUR Sep 25, 2023

Show notes

Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the fourth time) to discuss Burford winning the YPF case and the fundamental thesis post-trial.

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0

Artem's second appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/OIFGrfx1O88

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:41] Burford won the case - quick overview of the case and how we arrived at this final judgement

[15:15] Enforcement and collection

[28:55] Examples of collection efforts

[33:14] Timing of enforcement and potential settlement payouts

[44:02] Tax implications

[54:22] Why hasn't $BUR management answered the question about whether any of the funds they manage bought YPF?

[1:03:35] $BUR core business

[1:14:04] $BUR asset management business model / recent results / management and employee incentives

[1:28:26] $BUR valuation without YPF included

[1:39:38] ROE on the core business on a per share basis and final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Value Situations' Conor Maguire shares Marlowe plc $MRL.L thesis + TIC segment catalyst Sep 23, 2023

Show notes

Conor Maguire, Founder and Editor of the Value Situations Newsletter, joins the podcast for his second appearance to share his thesis on Marlowe plc (LSE: MRL), provider of a broad range of compliance software and services in areas which pose a high risk for businesses.

For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:41] Overview and investing thesis on Marlowe plc (LSE: MRL

[13:49] $MRL's TIC segment - what is the catalyst here

[18:11] Potential bidders for TIC segment

[25:12] Management incentives

[30:58] Marlowe $MRL.L bear case

[40:58] FCF and $MRL.L moving forward

[47:24] Risk factors / what worries Conor about $MRL.L

[53:09] How does $MRL.L thesis fit Conor's overall investing framework?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Ave Maria Focused Fund's Chadd Garcia talks eDreams, travel subscription platform in Europe $EDR.MC Sep 13, 2023

Show notes

Chadd Garcia, Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst at Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Focused Fund, joins the podcast for his second appearance to share his thesis on eDreams ODIEGO (MSE - Madrid Stock Exchange: EDR), travel subscription platform and one of the largest e-commerce businesses in Europe.

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:43] Overview of eDreams ODIGEO $EDR.MC

[9:27] eDreams' overall vision and current valuation

[13:34] Prime model and its potential growth in European markets

[17:30] How eDreams is different from TripAdvisor / why eDreams the one to crack the membership model

[23:13] Costco comparison

[25:24] Churn rate / U.S. investor perspective on eDreams / changing disclosures

[34:07] Competitive landscape, in particular, response from Booking as eDreams grows

[38:45] Hotels initiative / breaking into the U.S. market

[43:13] Capital allocation strategy

[47:20] Final thoughts on eDreams: risks to consider / headwinds / Chadd's personal experience using eDreams platform

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets August 2023 Sep 01, 2023

Show notes

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this August 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the FTC in general, Horizon/Amgen case, deep dive into CVRs and, of course, the Microsoft / Activision deal.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:43] What's been going on - August 2023; starting with FTC in general

[7:12] State of the FTC, Anti-trust

[11:16] Horizon/Amgen case

[17:30] Deep dive into CVRs

[29:42] Can CVRs present a little risk adjusted alpha?

[35:29] Microsoft / Activision deal

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Firstlight Management's AJ Secrist provides update on $LW thesis post-earnings and pre-Investor Day Aug 31, 2023

Show notes

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management is back on the podcast today to provide an update on Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LW), a key supplier of french fries to fast-food chains, following their recent quarterly update and in advance of their investor day.

Check out his first appearance on YAVP laying out his $LW thesis (December 2022): https://youtu.be/lNY8sQVttks

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:24] Update on Lamb Weston Holdings $LW since AJ's last appearance on YAVP in December 2022; how the stock has performed / fundamental issues

[5:44] $LW recent conference call: French fry attachment rate and why it matters / inventory destocking

[13:07] Current valuation for $LW and justifying AJ's $7 EPS thesis / key drivers of value

[20:30] Gross margins and SG&A expenses

[23:45] Expectations from the $LW investor day / should they be doing an investor day?

[31:43] Buybacks

[34:18] $LW final thoughts / bear case?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Choice Equities' Mitchell Scott making the case that $CROX is not a fad Aug 24, 2023

Show notes

Mitchell Scott, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Choice Equities Capital Management, joined the podcast to make the case that Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) is not a fad.

For more information about Choice Equities Capital Management, please visit: https://choice-equities.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:36] What is $CROX, why is it interesting to Mitchell and $CROX growth story

[4:50] What is Jibbitz, patent protection on the product and consumer trends using the product

[8:22] $CROX valuation

[12:16] $CROX bear case and response

[16:44] Why aren't there more Crocs knock-offs

[17:40] Is $CROX just a COVID beneficiary and Crocs brand power

[22:01] Crocs core customer and fashion/age out risk

[25:04] HEYDUDE acquisition, go-forward with management's strategy around the brand, average customer of HEYDUDE shoes, knock off problem and why would one need multiple pairs of them

[34:19] How do overcome the bears $CROX worry that Crocs (and other brands $CROX owns) turns out to be a fad

[38:45] Why is $CROX the best buyer and owner of HEYDUDE?

[41:00] Endgame for $CROX / apparel line in the future?

[44:17] Final thoughts on $CROX: shifting HEYDUDE wholesale channel, worry about inventory buildup and this year's earnings

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Hedgeye's Daniel Biolsi on state of the Consumer Staples sector + $COST $ACI $KVUE $HSY $IFF Aug 18, 2023

Show notes

Daniel Biolsi, Head of Consumer Staples sector at Hedgeye, shares his thoughts on current state of the Consumer Staples sector in 2023.

For more information about Hedgeye, please visit: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Hedgeye

[0:56] State of the Consumer Staples sector

[4:04] $COST and BJ's thesis

[8:24] Why long Albertson's $ACI + thoughts on acquisition proposed by Kroger

[21:14] $KVUE Kenvue thesis

[28:04] Hershey $HSY, international expansion, response to short report and GLP-1 drugs

[38:39] International Flavors & Fragrances $IFF negative sentiment

Today's episode is sponsored by: Hedgeye

This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye does fantastic work, and I think that shines through in the conversation we have today. If you like the conversation and are interested in learning more, please check out hedgeye at hedgeye.com

Focus Capital's Mordechai Yavneh returns to explain how $SIMO / $MXL deal fell apart Aug 14, 2023

Show notes

Mordechai Yavneh, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Focus Capital, returns to the podcast to discuss how the Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: SIMO) / MaxLinear (NASDAQ: MXL) deal fell apart.

Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research

Mordechai's December 2022 $SIMO pitch on YAVP: https://youtu.be/f--RrIG1fAQ

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:46] Update since Mordechai's $SIMO pitch with Andrew in December 2022; how $SIMO / $MXL fell apart

[6:49] The four reasons $MXL said they were able to back out of the deal

[13:53] Why $MXL does not really have the right to terminate the deal

[22:37] Back and forth on the necessity for $MXL having to close the deal; how the $MXL / $SIMO situation compares to Twitter case

[31:14] Likely outcome for $SIMO if they pursue arbitration; potential outcomes for $MXL

[35:33] Understanding the difference between "Specific Performance" vs "Expectation Damages" and does breaking these deals set certain precedents?

[40:03] What is the material adverse event $MXL is referring that $SIMO experienced

[45:55] $SIMO fundamentals

[53:04] What $SIMO is seeing in the 2nd half and how their business may perform going forward; Mordechai's 3 year outlook

[1:00:23] What Mordechai thinks earnings for $SIMO looks like in a mid-cycle, normalized environment

[1:07:42] Is $SIMO a seller again or $MXL offer such a big premium, that $SIMO has to take it?

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Ross Levin on Cooperative Investment Certificates (CCIs) issued by Credit Agricole Group Aug 11, 2023

Show notes

Ross Levin, Director of Research at Arbiter Partners, joins the pod to discuss his thesis on Credit Agricole S.A. CCIs (Cooperative Investment Certificates).

For more information about Arbiter Partners, please visit: https://arbiterpartners.net/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:43] Overview of Credit Agricole S.A. and CCIs (Cooperative Investment Certificates)

[9:56] Dividend yield on these CCIs

[16:51] Value catalyst - Eureka transaction

[23:53] Credit Agricole vulnerabilities, CCI clean-up + historical examples of buyouts of these CCIs

[30:20] What does the CCI buybacks look like

[32:25] CCIs' risks / bear case

[36:46] French regional bank risk / what would happen if Credit Agricole blew up (systemic risk)

[41:58] Resources to research CCIs

[44:17] Final thoughts on Credit Agricole and CCIs