UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Shades of beige' May 29, 2024

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The entertainment from the US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey comments did not disappoint. Several would be met with a disparaging “OK, boomer” if only the TikTok generation read the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Today’s anecdotes come in the form of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. These comments are indirect quotes, and sanitization reduces entertainment value. Remarks on prices and pricing power are still likely to be investors’ focus.

Global Livestream: A broadening rally - The world beyond NVIDIA May 28, 2024

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Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues from around the world discuss the state of play in global markets and recommendations for investors.

Top of the Morning: Global Plastic Reduction - The challenge & potential solutions May 28, 2024

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Today we spotlight the May edition of the monthly Sustainable Investing Perspectives publication. Among the topics featured within, Amantia highlights global plastic reduction efforts, including the role companies are playing, along with the potential investment considerations from these efforts that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation hints' May 28, 2024

Show notes

The UK’s May shop price index showed ongoing non-food deflation, and a slower pace of food price increases as the profit-led inflation episode wanes. Supermarkets’ dual pricing structure (offering preferential discounts to loyalty card holders) seems to be ending. Shop price data includes the discounts, consumer price data does not—and the gap between the two has disappeared.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rates cuts, and the power of the story' May 27, 2024

Show notes

ECB Chief Economist Lane stated the central bank is ready to cut rates. We have heard this from other ECB governing council members, but Lane’s remarks come with the added authority and insight that only a chief economist can bring. Europe has (on a like-for-like basis) the same inflation as the US or the UK, and the ECB is not known for the speed of its decision-making. That the ECB looks to be first to cut rates may be due to the narrative around European growth, rather than the substance of economic data.

A Conversation with Solita Marcelli and Jeffrey Gundlach May 24, 2024

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Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas of UBS, along with Jeffery Gundlach CEO of DoubleLine, share valuable insights and perspectives on the current investment landscape.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Consumers consuming' May 24, 2024

Show notes

Japan’s April consumer price inflation was a little dull—the inflation rate slowed more or less as expected, as food prices offered disinflation. Some sources of inflation are probably not domestic in origin—although the rate has moderated, hotel price inflation remains close to 20% y/y. Very strong foreign tourist numbers helped push up those prices.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Philosophy of Politics and Economics' May 23, 2024

Show notes

US President Clinton’s admonition “It’s the economy, stupid” puts economists in their proper (superior) place. But which economy? Economists get excited about inflation, but voters think in terms of price levels—a higher price level can be considered unfair even as inflation falls. GDP is too abstract for voters, who do not care whether “growth” is -0.1% or +0.1%. Economic perceptions (honest perceptions, not sentiment surveys) drive politics.

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 6) May 22, 2024

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With US equity indices having recently reached record levels, many investors are wondering how long this momentum can continue (and what might disrupt it). Burkhard outlines CIO’s view on equity returns, along with breaks down the anatomy of a bull market. Plus, we spend time on the implications of the bull market wealth effect to consumer behavior and economic activity.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Cutting comments' May 22, 2024

Show notes

European Central Bank President Lagarde did, after all, offer policy comments yesterday—in an Irish TV interview. Lagarde signaled a June Euro area rate cut is coming, because inflation is under control. Markets already expect this. Currently, US inflation is the same as that of Europe when measured on a like-for-like basis, so why is the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts?

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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