UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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Top of the Morning: March jobs report, US trade policy, & the week ahead Apr 04, 2025

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As we close out a volatile week in the markets, Brian shares his thoughts on the March employment report, and the overall health of the US labor market. Brian also assesses the potential economic impacts overtime of this week’s tariff announcements. Plus, a recap of notable data-point releases over the past few days, and a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio '….not well' Apr 04, 2025

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Financial markets expected a significant tax increase from US President Trump. Yesterday’s reaction shows the tax increase was worse than anticipated. US dollar weakness is telling. We often hear that when the US sneezes the global economy catches cold. This is not the US sneezing. This is the US cutting off its own arm. The self-inflicted economic cost naturally weakens the dollar. Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks today on the economic outlook.

Washington Weekly Podcast: The latest on tariffs, Special election takeaways Apr 03, 2025

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In the wake of the latest tariff news out of the White House, Shane reflects on the impacts to US trading relationships around the globe, along with how trading partners are responding. Plus, an analysis of this week’s special elections in Florida and Wisconsin, and what the outcomes suggest about voter sentiment. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: ‘POTUS 47 Series: Latest on tariffs, the economic and market impact’ Apr 03, 2025

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An inventory of Wednesday’s tariff announcement by the Trump administration, along with an assessment of potential economic impacts, and reflections on the global market response. Plus, thoughts on how to manage portfolios during times of volatility and uncertainty. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Well….' Apr 03, 2025

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US President Trump unveiled a massive tax increase for US companies and consumers. Tariffs were set at (0.5 x bilateral trade deficit / US imports). This is a predictable formula, completely unrelated to trade openness. The uninhabited Heard and Macdonald Islands get a 10% tariffs (will the penguins retaliate?). This may cause investors to question the competence of the administration’s trade policy.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Economists’ ignorance is the problem' Apr 02, 2025

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Economists know what they don’t know. US President Trump is expected to announce the largest peacetime tax increase in US history. The erratic nature of trade policy, uncertainty about whether legal procedures will be followed, limited clarity about end-objectives, the possibility that Trump will again retreat from some taxes, and the unpredictability of patronage-style deals to gain exemptions create uncertainty about the direct effect of the taxes. The second-round effects depend on unpredictable reactions by US companies, a far more complex global trade system than existed 20 years ago, and US consumers whose reaction to inflation has shifted.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'United fronts' Apr 01, 2025

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A social media post from a semi-official China account suggested that China, Japan, and South Korea would present a united front against US trade taxes. Korean officials suggested this might be exaggerated, but the fact that this is remotely plausible reflects the reconfiguration of how the world works (or does not work). China and Japan are the two largest central bank holders of US dollar assets.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - From uncertainty to Risk Mar 31, 2025

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Jason previews what will be a busy few days ahead for the markets, including an impending announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, along with key economic data such as the March employment report. This all against a backdrop of persistent investor concern over slowing growth and recession risk. Jason shares CIO’s latest market outlook, along with positioning recommendations as outlined within the April UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'End the Fed' Mar 31, 2025

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Overnight US President Trump’s influential donor Musk reiterated a desire to “end the Fed.” Abolishing the Federal Reserve is part of the reported Project 2025 blueprint. This sort of talk, immediately ahead of significant trade taxes, is potentially disruptive. A central bank is probably necessary for reserve currency status.

Market outlook: Is the glass still half full? with Henry McVey (KKR) & Solita Marcelli (UBS CIO) Mar 29, 2025

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Hear from Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro, Balance Sheet & Risk and CIO of KKR’s Balance Sheet, and Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, as they discuss and share their outlooks for the rest of 2025 and beyond, including key opportunities and risks.

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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