UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Self-inflicted slowdowns and the Fed' Apr 17, 2025

Show notes

Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications. On the evidence of (unreliable) sentiment surveys, over a third of US consumers think inflation will exceed 10% this year. Powell emphasized longer-term inflation expectations, which should still allow for rate cuts. The self-inflicted nature of the economic slowdown may limit the number of cuts.

The State of Financial Stability with Steven Kelly (Yale) & Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) Apr 16, 2025

Show notes

Hear a discussion on the stability of the US financial system, featuring Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at Yale School of Management, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income, CIO Americas

UBS AI Podcast - CEO Series - Ep. 1 (Arvind Jain, CEO of Glean) Apr 16, 2025

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The UBS AI Podcast explores the fascinating and evolving world of artificial intelligence, how it's transforming industries, redefining what's possible and reshaping the future. On this first episode of the CEO Series, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO for Global Equities with the UBS Chief Investment Office, converses with Arvind Jain, the CEO and Co-Founder of Glean. Ulrike and Arvind dive into the vision behind Glean, and discuss the future of AI and workplace productivity.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflating trade’s importance' Apr 16, 2025

Show notes

China halted the import of Boeing planes; US President Trump asked China to call him, and then imposed permanent restrictions on NVIDIA chip sales to China; EU leaks suggest negotiators do not believe the US knows what it wants from trade talks. Economic nationalism remains alive and well and includes capital flows. US TICS capital flows data is due today (but misses large amounts of foreign activity in US capital markets).

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Ed Al-Hussainy (Columbia Threadneedle) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) Apr 15, 2025

Show notes

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and the broader markets, against the backdrop of US trade policy uncertainty. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ed Al-Hussainy, Global Interest Rate Strategist, Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Let’s try some more!' Apr 15, 2025

Show notes

US President Trump appears “very happy” with the economic consequences of trade taxes to date, and is therefore proposing to add to US consumers’ tax burden with levies on computer chips and pharmaceuticals. The tax on chips will probably reverse some of the effects of the retreat from taxing smartphones.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - What Exactly is Trumponomics? Apr 14, 2025

Show notes

As investor uncertainty persists over the direction of US trade policy, Jason applies some definition to “Trumponomics”, along with explains the equity and bond market response to recent tariff developments. Plus, a preview of busy week ahead which includes numerous Q1 corporate earnings results, retail sales data - and of course - likely further news on tariffs. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy competence questions' Apr 14, 2025

Show notes

US President Trump retreated from more trade taxes on Friday, exempting iPhones and some other electronics from much of the 145% tax on imports from China. This would have been a very visible tax increase. While consumers tend to be sensitive to the price of high frequency purchases like food and fuel, a roughly 60% increase in an iPhone’s consumer price from trade taxes would be noticed.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Not entirely usual' Apr 11, 2025

Show notes

US President Trump’s administration clarified the 125% tax on imports from China was 145%. This increase will not shift demand patterns (it will cost US consumers more money). For investors, this raises policy competence questions again. A well-planned trade tax would consider costs. Tax rates set seemingly at random question whether costs are properly considered.

Top of the Morning: Why we're not worried - and you shouldn't be either Apr 10, 2025

Show notes

It’s natural to feel anxious during market drawdowns, which is why having a plan to weather market storms (and take advantage of market volatility) can be helpful. Justin outlines some reasons to be confident and calm during market drawdowns, and how to plan accordingly. Featured is Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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