UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Uncertainty about talking' Apr 25, 2025

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China said it was not negotiating with the US over trade. US President Trump avowed that the US was talking with someone (who they are talking to is a secret, apparently). Things like this might possibly be contributing to the economically damaging levels of uncertainty. The US and South Korea have agreed a framework for trade talks (North Korea escaped US tariffs). South Korea and the US had a free trade deal with no tariffs at all until a few weeks ago.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Make America Uncertain Again' Apr 24, 2025

Show notes

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book has biases. The businesses that provide anecdotal evidence will have an agenda, and the Fed economists who edit the anecdotes into coherence understand the economics of trade. Nonetheless, the latest edition used “uncertainty” 80 times—more than twice the references during the pandemic or the global financial crisis. Erratic policies are having an economic impact, and that seems to have penetrated partisan media bubbles.

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 32) Apr 23, 2025

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How much longer will uncertainty last, and where might it all settle? Burkhard weighs in as investors continue to navigate everything from policy pivots to Fed independence to inflation, and much more. Plus, thoughts on how investors should react to a market recovery (or a deeper downturn). We also check in on the status of the global rotation trade, and gold.

CIO Fixed Income Roundtable Series: 2Q25 performance update Apr 23, 2025

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Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Fund Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The art of the retreat' Apr 23, 2025

Show notes

With investor concerns growing, US President Trump demonstrated the art of the retreat. They stated they had “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Trump may not be able to (legally), but markets will still have lingering concerns about Fed independence. Trump also said they would be “very nice” in any trade negotiations with China, raising hopes that the tax burden on US consumer may lessen.

Top of the Morning: Muni Market - Dislocation brings opportunities Apr 22, 2025

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Despite near-term headwinds and elevated volatility, the market dislocation brings opportunities for muni investors. Sudip and Jeannine provide a muni market performance update and share portfolio considerations for muni investors. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Real slowdown risks' Apr 22, 2025

Show notes

US President Trump again called for lower US interest rates. Markets interpreted this as undermining Federal Reserve independence, and markets do not like that (US assets weakened). The coming US economic slowdown is driven more by rising risk than high rates. Borrowing to fund investment and consumption balances the cost of capital with uncertainty about the future. Rising uncertainty is the US problem.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - No news is news Apr 21, 2025

Show notes

Following a relatively calm holiday shortened trading week with little to no developments on the tariff front, Jason updates on where tariff negotiations stand, and what to look out for in the near-term. We also recap last week’s macro developments, spanning retail sales to Q1 corporate earnings, along with takeaways from Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago (and the White House response). Plus, guidance on how to position your portfolio for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'In Fed we trust?' Apr 21, 2025

Show notes

US National Economic Council Director Hassett said US President Trump was investigating whether they could fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Investors seem less than happy with the idea of a politicized Fed—the US dollar and long-dated government bonds have weakened. There are checks on the president’s authority. Fed governors need to be confirmed by the Senate. The FOMC chair does not have to be the Fed chair. However, some of these checks depend on rule of law.

Across the Pond: What comes next for global trade? Apr 17, 2025

Show notes

In the short period following early April’s “Liberation Day” announcement of tariffs by the White House, questions remain amongst global investors as to whether the world is headed towards a protracted trade war, and a new regime of significantly higher tariffs. What might this all mean for Europe? Which sectors are most at risk? How can investors position portfolios accordingly? Paul Donovan, Chief Economist for UBS GWM, weighs in on these questions, along with co-hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters.

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