UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 40) Jul 11, 2025

Show notes

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs whether investors are entering the summer season with a sense of complacency as markets hover near all-time highs despite persisting uncertainty. We also touch on the prospects for Fed rate cuts in the coming months and the implications of the implementation of “curve control” to investors and global markets.

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview Jul 11, 2025

Show notes

Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins Shiavon Chatman to recap the trading week - including an update on the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, and thoughts on current US equity valuations. Plus, a preview of the upcoming corporate reporting season, and recommendations when it comes to positioning within US equities.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The retreat paradox' Jul 11, 2025

Show notes

The latest US tax increases were a 35% tax on products from Canada—in spite of Canadian concessions over digital taxes. It is not clear if the tax applies to all Canadian products, or just products not covered by the revised NAFTA (currently taxed at 25%), or to oil (currently 10%). US President Trump signaled that when they were tired of the lost art of letter writing, all remaining countries would be taxed at 15% to 20% (the penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands thus know their fate).

Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Back in the spotlight Jul 10, 2025

Show notes

Alejo rejoins in studio for a mid-year conversation on the Emerging Markets, including a recap of first-half performance drivers, expectations for the second-half, and thoughts on positioning across emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Masterful inactivity' Jul 10, 2025

Show notes

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes were a masterclass in the art of sitting on a fence. US President Trump’s trade tax inflation might be a one-off, or it might persist. The labor market may be weak enough to justify rate cuts, or not. Uncertainty over trade tax levels is a problem, but the real issue is the lack of clarity about the severity of second-round effects (e.g. profit-led inflation). Masterful inactivity seems the default policy option.

Navigating macroeconomic & geopolitical risks with Jordan Brooks, AQR Capital Management Jul 09, 2025

Show notes

Jordan Brooks serves as Principal and Co-Head of the Macro Strategies Group at AQR Capital Management. With no shortage of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks out there for investors to consider, Jordan explains what is top of mind for his team at AQR, and shares guidance when it comes to navigating these types of risks accordingly (including the role alternative investments can play in a portfolio). Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Investing in Brazil Jul 08, 2025

Show notes

A look at the investment case for Brazil, and why the environment of today differs from that of the past. We also discuss the implications of a weaker US dollar, global trade tensions, and the direction monetary policy to Brazilian assets. Plus, an overview of risk considerations. Featured are Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist, and Laura Smith, Equity Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The new tax wave' Jul 08, 2025

Show notes

US President Trump announced the start of a new wave of taxes on US consumers, with a 25% tax on US citizens who want to buy products from South Korea and Japan. Other countries’ exports also received higher tax rates, but it seems a wasted effort to analyze every Trump social media post when investors understandably anticipate future retreats. Japan and South Korea accounted for around 8.5% of US imports last year, so this tax increase adds 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to consumer price inflation.

Top of the Morning: POTUS 47 - One Big Beautiful Bill & US trade policy Jul 07, 2025

Show notes

Kurt rejoins the conversation to outline the notable takeaways and investment implications of One Big Beautiful Bill, which was signed into law by President Trump on July 4th. We also cover upcoming legislative priorities of Congress, along with an update on trade negotiations, and what to know what upcoming trade-related deadlines. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Delays and retreats' Jul 07, 2025

Show notes

The additional taxes US President Trump intended to impose on US consumers from Wednesday will now be delayed until 1 August. That means that, allowing for some stockpiling ahead of Christmas, consumers may not experience the inflation spike from these taxes until January next year—assuming that Trump does not retreat again.

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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