UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 41) Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares some boots-on-the-ground insights from Germany, as he explains the drivers behind Germany’s market gains and economic momentum, including takeaways from conversations with German businesses and investors. We also touch on considerations for international investors in today’s market and macro environment.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Can the Fed be saved?' Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested US rates should be cut now, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell should resign or be fired. Do investors want to live in a world where Fed independence is compromised and Lutnick influences policy? To judge from the dollar’s reaction, the answer is “no”.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Who to scapegoat when trade deals are done?' Jul 23, 2025

Show notes

The proposed US-Japan trade deal means US buyers of Japanese goods (including autos) face a 15% tax. Steel is still taxed at 50%. Of course, deals are not the same as implementation, as the UK steel industry can testify. There are media reports that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will resign in August. Investors are unlikely to expect significant policy change given the lack of a majority in either house of the Diet.

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Insights on taxes Jul 22, 2025

Show notes

Paul rejoins in-studio to spotlight a special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book publication series which covers tax and economic considerations that stem from the One Big Beautiful Bill, for both business owners and individuals. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Independence in focus' Jul 22, 2025

Show notes

US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested a “wholesale review” of the Federal Reserve was necessary (while supporting central bank independence). In the context of recent challenges, these remarks may trouble investors. Central bank independence was critical to the post-1970s moderation of inflation, and helped prevent the post-pandemic inflation from being worse than it was.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Summer slowdown? Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

Despite relatively low trading volumes and narrow trading ranges as of late, there is still plenty factors top of mind for investors that could stir up market volatility in the weeks ahead. This morning, we check-in on the Q2 earnings season, reflect on Fed independence concerns, and assess macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy. Plus, a review of CIO’s market outlook and portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade continues elsewhere' Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

South Korean export data for the first part of July showed growth, adjusted for differences in working days. Semiconductor sales were strong, and exports to Europe continued to grow. The US habit of taxing its consumers if they buy foreign steel meant exports in that sector were weaker. The data is a reminder that while the US is an important economy, there are other important economies that are not burdening their consumers with additional taxes.

Ahead of the curve with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – How AI will feature in upcoming tech earnings, macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy, and how to think about Fed independence concerns.

How should I be positioned? with Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO) Jul 18, 2025

Show notes

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange thoughts on Fed independence (and the course for monetary policy), the direction of US trade policy (and economic implications), along with 2H25 market outlooks and portfolio positioning considerations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Can anyone argue for rate cuts?' Jul 18, 2025

Show notes

After this week’s events, the question is whether anyone can advocate for US rate cuts without being seen as a political puppet? Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller offered some (debatable, but valid) economic points in favor of US rate cuts, but the position is politically tainted. The problem for the Fed and markets is that the US administration’s policy continues to create considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook.

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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