UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

Talking Markets Podcast with Patricia Zobel of Guggenheim Partners Jul 31, 2025

Show notes

Patricia Zobel serves as Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, and previously served as an executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed). Patricia rejoins the podcast to share perspective on a range of topics, spanning an outlook for the US economy, US trade policy, Fed independence, and the direction of monetary policy. We also spend time on allocation preferences. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US inflation in isolation' Jul 31, 2025

Show notes

The Federal Reserve offered no surprises on rates. Fed Chair Powell tried to present the two dissenting views as being rationally based, but investors are bound to suspect that the rationale amounted to little more than an excited jumping up and down and shouting “pick me, pick me” in the general direction of the White House. The press conference gave a slightly hawkish tone in anticipating the trade tax inflation yet to come.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Perceptions of political puppeteering' Jul 30, 2025

Show notes

The Federal Reserve meets to decide interest rates—over a hundred economists expect no change. The question is whether one can credibly disagree, without appearing as a political puppet. A case can be made for rate cuts (if one views US President Trump’s trade taxes as a heavier burden on US consumers). However, even if a Fed member sincerely believes that scenario, their dissent would almost inevitably be viewed as Trump twitching the political puppet strings in the background.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The data in focus' Jul 29, 2025

Show notes

The US June trade balance is due—a number once overlooked but which politics has made it matter. Are international investors rushing to buy more US-made products? They are not (Canadians seem to be rushing in the other direction). Are US consumers less inclined to buy foreign goods? Probably not—even as late as June, some imports will not yet be hit with trade taxes. The euro has weakened, allegedly in response to concerns about the economic implications of the trade “deal”; but we still lack “deal” details, and the reaction of US companies will also matter to the EU economic outlook.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - The Great Risk Transfer Jul 28, 2025

Show notes

Jason drops by the studio to preview a busy week that includes an abundance of Q2 earnings results, the July FOMC meeting, and the July employment report. We also reflect on recent trade news involving the EU and Japan, and what it all means for tariffs going forward. Plus, a look at CIO’s latest positioning recommendations, and thoughts on how a big structural risk shift in the private sector is being masked by a relative market calm. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Bad news or good news?' Jul 28, 2025

Show notes

The EU and the US agreed that US consumers should pay more tax—levied at 15% for imports from the EU. EU President von der Leyen made vague pledges to buy stuff from and invest in the US, without the necessary authority to make those pledges reality. Pharmaceuticals and steel seem to be excluded from this deal. The result is better for the US economy than the worst-case scenario, but worse for the US economy than the situation in January this year—but it is bad news markets have probably anticipated.

Ahead of the curve with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi Jul 28, 2025

Show notes

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – Mega-tech Q2 earnings results continue, the FOMC meeting and rate decision, further potential trade developments ahead of the Aug 01 deadline, and the July employment report.

Navigating macroeconomic & geopolitical risks with Arif Joshi, Lazard Asset Management Jul 25, 2025

Show notes

Arif Joshi serves as a Portfolio Manager and Analyst on Lazard Asset Management's Emerging Markets Debt team. Our conversation focuses on recent and ongoing developments surrounding US trade policy, along with implications to the economy, and international markets. We also spend some time on pressing geopolitical topics such as the condition of the US-China relationship, along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Independence Day' Jul 25, 2025

Show notes

From time to time, these comments might have given the impression of dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chair Powell. While one can (very) credibly disagree with Powell’s policies, those policies are independent. Yesterday, Powell defended that independence, publicly correcting US President Trump’s errors about the Fed’s building projects. Powell suggested that Trump’s trade tax policy was behind some cost overruns (a subtle reminder that US consumers pay tariffs, not foreign exporters).

Washington Weekly Podcast: Trade deals, Congressional redistricting, Early recess Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

Shane drops by to share the latest developments on trade, spanning Japan to the European Union. We also touch on efforts by both sides of the isle to redraw Congressional districts in states such as Texas, California, and New York. Plus, a look at why the August recess for Congress has commenced early, and what to watch out for when lawmakers return to Capitol Hill in September. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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