Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI112: How and When to improve your trading system ft. Moritz Seibert Nov 01, 2020

Show notes

In today’s episode, we discuss the continual need for improvements to a system, the importance of good housekeeping when it comes to managing a portfolio, the varying amounts of leverage among CFD brokers, choosing whether to accept outside investment into your strategy or go it alone, using profit stops versus letting your winners run, and the importance of protecting your intellectual property. Questions we answer this week include: How do experienced CTAs trade through limit-down (or limit-up) situations? Can machine learning be useful in Trend Following for more than just risk parity strategies?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:12 – Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆

02:30 – Macro recap from Niels

04:43 – Weekly review of performance

16:38 – Q1; Matt: How do I incorporate external money into my trading strategy, and, alternatively, should I avoid it?

34:17 – Q2; Brian: How do experienced CTAs trade limit-down or limit-up situations?

46:54 – Q3; Panagiotis: Do you see any other uses for machine learning in Trend Following strategies, other than Risk Parity?

01:00:05 – Q4; Craig: Should I stick with my profit targets, or let my winners run?

01:04:46 – Benchmark performance update

01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks – Coming Into Focus podcast & Annie Duke on the Capital Allocator’s Podcast

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI111: Trend Following pros and cons ft. Michael Covel Oct 25, 2020

Show notes

Legendary Trend Following author & podcast host, Michael Covel, joins us today to discuss the far-reaching popularity of his books, the advantages of allocating to a Trend Following manager rather than DIY trading, managing money for clients vs being an unknown successful private trader, why Trend Following funds should worry about AUM growing to be too large, why Trend Following still deserves an important allocation to any investment portfolio after recent mediocre returns, and whether central bank Quantitive Easing programs have changed the landscape for systematic investors.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:04 – Weekly review of performance

10:17 – Moritz: Do you have any new books in the making?

13:07 – Announcement of Jack Schwager joining us on the show in 2 week’s time

13:16 – Moritz: How is your personal trading going?

16:00 – Listener question; Saeed: Which market sectors have the longest trends?

28:50 – Moritz: Do you think Trend Following is over-crowded?

29:49 – Niels: Is Trend Following’s mediocre performance over the last 10 years a new normal or an anomaly?

30:38 – Niels: What are your thoughts on pure Trend Following versus multi-strategy?

33:27 – Niels: How have institutional investors’ attitudes to Trend Following changed over the past 20 years?

38:24 – Niels: What do you say to those who ask, ‘has quantitive easing killed Trend Following’?

41:32 – Niels: What about those who say, ‘fast moving markets have killed Trend Following’?

43:34 – Niels: What do you think about managers overriding their systems during high-volatility periods?

47:45 – Niels: What are your thoughts on AI strategies?

54:10 – Niels: How do you feel about the Trend Following being labelled as ‘crisis alpha’?

01:00:30 – Benchmark performance update

01:01:30 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Robert Rosenberg on Bloomberg’s Business Week podcast, Michael Green on The Investor’s Podcast & Naval Ravikant on the Tim Ferris podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU112: The Art of Investing ft. Scott Lynn of Masterworks Oct 22, 2020

Show notes

Scott Lynn is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks. He began his career as a serial entrepreneur, starting tech companies focused on casual gaming, online advertising and financial technology. All along the way he collected art, and after seeing the data available in the last twenty years thanks to the Internet, Scott decided to pursue art as an investment. Art as an asset class has been around for hundreds of years, but only recently has been seen as a viable investment opportunity – made possible by Masterworks. Listen in on today’s episode to find out why art is becoming more popular as an asset class among investors, what the key macro drivers are for art, and how Masterworks is making art an accessible investment opportunity.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the art market is different today than it was twenty five years ago
How old art is as an asset class
How analyzing art is different from analyzing other asset classes
When did art as an asset class begin to be studied
How art returns are related to the growth of the top 1%
How art prices are driven by a decreasing supply of new works
How should an art collector think about risk
What is a bad environment for art investment
How Masterworks invests in art
What is a standard commission when buying a piece of art
What are the trends among art investors

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Scott on Twitter

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI110: US Election and how to trade Cryptos with rules ft. Moritz Seibert Oct 19, 2020

Show notes

This week, we discuss how markets are handling current US presidential election uncertainty, why a healthy allocation to Trend Following strategies may be needed now more than ever, our thoughts on trading systematically in the cryptocurrency markets, and how to invest in Trend Following funds with relatively low capital. We also answer your questions, including: how do I share the details of my successful trading strategy with my employer, who is a money management firm?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:08 – Special thank you to our listeners

03:41 – Macro recap from Niels

07:50 – Weekly review of performance

25:53 – Q1; Adam: I’m running a crypto Trend Following strategy. How do I minimise the amount of profit lost at tops & bottoms of markets?

35:40 – Q2; Brendan: My employer is now interested in using my Trend Following system. Do I handover the code & backtests? If I decline, will they be able to sue me (I built the system using half of my own time, and half during my employer’s time)? Do you have any advice re: incentives?

43:38 – Q3; Dr. Doom: Do you have any thoughts on how an Actuary could turn into a Quant trader? What are your opinion on high frequency trading managers?

46:45 – Announcement of Michael Covel joining us on next week’s episode

51:37 – Q4; Thomas: Is Trend Following still suitable as an investment in a mutual fund format?

01:01:48 – Benchmark performance update

01:03:27 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Joel Greenblatt on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business podcast & Felix Zulauf on the Grant Williams podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI109: Investing like a legend ft. Perry Kaufman Oct 12, 2020

Show notes

Systematic trading and Trend Following legend, Perry Kaufman, joins us on the show today to discuss the importance of being comfortable with risk, the benefits of continuously ranking & evaluating markets, the importance of ‘fat tails’ in Trend Following systems, why you might want to use equal risk with every trade, how to avoid being over-correlated, trading single stocks vs indices, opinions on profit targets, and why he generally prefers long trades vs short trades.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:25 – Weekly review of performance

06:08 – Niels: How does the content in your book, Trading Systems, inform your decisions when building a system, and what do they mean to you?

26:44 – Niels: How do you avoid overfitting your system to accommodate markets that may not perform well in the future?

29:28 – Niels: How do you avoid being over-correlated?

30:17 – Niels: How does your ranking system work when adding or removing markets from your trading universe?

44:19 – Niels: How do you feel about profit targets?

53:06 – Niels: Why do you believe Trend Following strategies will always be successful?

57:00 – Niels: Have you found in your research that long-sided trades tend work better than short trades, and if so, have any hypothesis as to why that is?

01:04:33 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on trading single stocks vs trading the indices?

01:09:54 – Niels question for Moritz: How have you incorporated yourself & Perry’s work on Volatility Targeting into your trading?

01:21:29 – Niels: Are there any new discoveries that you’ve found in recent years that enhance Trend Following strategies, or have we most likely found everything by now?

01:24:45 – Benchmark performance update

01:26:32 – Niels: Which book, that you didn’t write, would you recommend to our listeners?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI108: The case for and against the Kelly Criterion ft. Robert Carver Oct 04, 2020

Show notes

Robert Carver joins us today to discuss the case for and against the Kelly Criterion, short vs medium vs long-term Trend Following, how closely you should be following different markets, diversification across markets vs across timeframes, how mainstream financial media is driving investors to alternative information sources, the amount of screens you need to trade successfully, and the importance of viewing returns in terms of percentage rather than monetary terms.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:24 – Macro recap from Niels

04:40 – Weekly review of performance

31:11 – Q1 & Q2; Roberto: Can Rob & Moritz explain the framework behind building block ‘volatility-targeting in his book ‘Systematic Trading’? Why does Rob, in his book, disagree with trading leveraged ETFs?

01:03:50 – Q3; Chris: Am I correct in avoiding the mini-futures in Silver market due to low liquidity?

01:10:08 – Trend Following: short-term vs medium term vs long term

01:18:05 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI107: Best and Worst markets to trade and benefits of adding the S&P500 ft. Moritz Seibert Sep 27, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, we discuss the best & worst markets for Trend Following strategies in recent years, the benefits of trading & investing across multiple timeframes, how a combined portfolio of Trend Following & the S&P500 has been historically lucrative, the perils of a market that is stuck in a large trading range, and how 3 months can easily change your year-to-date performance. Questions we answer include: What are your thoughts on inflation & fixed income, as they relate to Trend Following? How do commission & other charges affect systematic trading strategies? What is the optimal allocation to Trend Following? Do you have any advice for trading CFDs?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:57 – Macro recap from Niels

04:32 – Weekly review of performance

32:46 – Q1; James: Why does Moritz seemingly switch his positioning in a market between long & short, some times, and not other times?

39:42 – Q2 & Q3; Eduardo: What are your thoughts on inflation, bonds & Trend Following on fixed income? How do commissions and charges affect a Trend Following strategy?

59:00 – Q4; Anti: Is Moritz’s system a ‘stop & reverse’ system?

01:01:02 – Q5 & Q6; Mikael K: Can you build a trend following trading system based on Options rather than Futures? Do you have any advice for trading CFD’s?

01:05:11 – Q7; Michael N: What is the optimal portfolio allocation to Trend Following?

01:09:57 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI106: Ray Dalio's underwhelming 2020 performance and the FED ft. Moritz Seibert Sep 18, 2020

Show notes

Today, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s current inflation targets, whether it is ok for systematic managers to turn off their systems during periods of high volatility & uncertainty, the looming questions around Ray Dalio & Bridgewater’s underwhelming performance in 2020, volatility control vs risk control, and why liquidity should be an important deciding factor for investors when choosing a money manager. Questions we answer this week include: How do you size your positions once maximum portfolio risk is reached? Do have you have any tips on how to perform volatility-control?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:30 – Macro recap from Niels

04:36 – Weekly review of performance

31:24 – Q1; Daniel: How do you size new positions once your intended maximum portfolio risk is reached?

39:17 – Q2; Dave: Do you have any pointers on how effectively perform volatility targeting?

55:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI105: TESLA & How paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading ft. Moritz Seibert Sep 13, 2020

Show notes

On today’s show, we discuss Tesla’s threat to the current giants of European car manufacturing, how paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading, the drawbacks of Systematic Investing through a broker’s platform rather than manually operating the system, the benefits of including commodities & currencies in a Trend Following system, and the case against long/flat-only Trend Following on stocks. Questions we answer this week include: Do you recommend any platforms that you allow you to test your trading system? Do you recommend any ‘off-the-shelf’ Trend Following trading systems?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:24 – The importance of investing psychology (with reference to Morgan Housel’s new book: The Psychology of Money)

07:20 – Weekly review of performance

23:32 – Discussion on the perceived safety of bonds

33:05 – Q1; Mike: Do you recommend any platforms that allow you test your system?

40:34 – Q2; Carmich: Can you recommend any off-the-shelf Trend Following strategies for retail traders?

49:32 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM10: MMT, Global Warming and the Uniqueness of the 2020 Crisis ft. Steve Keen Sep 10, 2020

Show notes

We are extremely honoured to welcome Steve Keen, the legendary Australian economist, to our podcast today. Steve is one of the leading critics of mainstream economics, and in our conversation provided a valuable alternative perspective to some of the critical issues facing us today. As you might expect, we did spend time discussing the COVID crisis and the potential policy options for addressing its economic effects, but we also touched on a range of other topics, from climate change to digital currencies, as well as giving Rob the opportunity to ask Steve about Brexit.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

COVID crisis as a demand and supply shock
Deflation
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
Fiat and Gesselian currencies
Central bank digital currencies
The Euro
Climate Change
Government Debt and Deficits

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Steve on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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