Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI130: Volatility-Targeting: The Big Debate ft. Jerry Parker & Rob Carver Mar 07, 2021

Show notes

We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity risk
The benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targeting
Modern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend Following
The 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investing
How important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio?

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Macro recap from Niels

03:33 – Weekly review of performance

10:10 – Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate

53:13 – Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals?

56:58 – Q2; Rene: Do have preferred methods for measuring trend strength?

01:05:14 – Q3, Q4, Q5 & Q6: Doogie; How can retail investors in the UK gain access to different CTA funds? Do you trade pair spreads? Why doesn’t Rob trade Bitcoin futures yet? Are Trend Following & Market Making returns correlated?

01:09:44 – Q7, Q8 & Q9: Gustavo; How do you manage to transition from an old system to a new system? With a non-binary system, how do you reduce multi-month futures contracts? Do you adjust moving average signals according to recent volatility?

01:15:39 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Anatomy of Bond ETF Arbitrage by the Bank of International Settlements, Pfizer's Abusive Vaccine Deals & Michael Goldstein on ‘Controlling The Bitcoin Rhetoric’

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI129: Correlation & Volatility…and is holding bonds “Stupid”? ft. Mark Rzepczynski Feb 28, 2021

Show notes

We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

If holding bonds "stupid"?
The problem of being an economic policy engineer
Why we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systems
The value of intuition - coup d'oeil and Clausewitz
Robot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot"
Correlation and volatility
The poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets
Due diligence and quality of managers.
Intraday trends – are they stable or unstable?

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:46 – Macro recap from Niels

05:18 – Weekly review of performance

01:04:48 – Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas?

01:10:49 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo

01:14:34 – Announcement: Special episode next week featuring both Jerry Parker & Rob Carver

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI128: Investing during Inflationary or Deflationary periods ft. Jerry Parker Feb 22, 2021

Show notes

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:28 – Macro recap from Niels

03:30 – Weekly review of performance

30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program? What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?

59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends?

01:02:36 – Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment?

01:13:25 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:24 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Dr Andrew Huberman on the Lewis Howes Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI127: Bitcoin's rise to $50,000 & new Ethereum futures ft. Moritz Seibert Feb 15, 2021

Show notes

Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:16 – Macro recap from Niels

04:57 – Weekly review of performance

41:32 – Q1; Kevin: In a continuous Trend Following strategy with no stops, is there anyway to minimise the whipsaw action during a trend change?

47:10 – Q2; Simon: How do you measure the business risks that aren’t related to market performance?

49:59 – Q3; Danny: What are your thoughts on using an overall portfolio-based stop-loss

55:14 – Q4; Tsatios: To what extent is hedge fund performance a result of skills in accounting & tax laws, on top of performance in the markets?

01:00:56 – Benchmark performance update

01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Jim Bianco & Jeremy Grantham on the Meb Faber show

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI126: GameStop & How to become a Systematic Investor ft. Rob Carver Feb 07, 2021

Show notes

Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:25 – Macro recap from Niels

04:27 – Weekly review of performance

42:32 – Q1; Michael: Should you use the US dollar to hedge against multiple long trades?

48:47 – Q2; Dennis: Can you discuss the pros & the cons of scaling in & out of positions?

59:22 – Q3 & Q4; Woody: Will continued central bank intervention prevent Trend Following profitability? Will the rise of passive over active investments pose a threat to medium to long-term Trend Followers, in terms of the increased volatility they might create?

01:15:39 – Q5; Daniel: When starting a new Trend Following system, should you enter all markets right away, or only enter the positions once new signals arrive?

01:21:14 – Q6; Red Eagle: How often do you see a trade that goes long in one pair, and short in another pair, and do you get excited at this? Alternatively, do you worry when both pairs are long or short?

01:25:50 – Q7; Cordura: Do you recommend Trend Following on indices only?

01:31:57 – Benchmark performance update

01:32:49 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Article in the Financial Times on Melvin Capital & the Gamestop frenzy, Hussman Funds recent market comments & Salem Abraham on the Meb Faber podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI125: Will the FED always prevent prolonged market crashes ft. Mark Rzepczynski Jan 31, 2021

Show notes

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:23 – Macro recap from Niels

05:24 – Weekly review of performance

01:04:34 – Q1; Jonah: Do you recommend adding to a position as the trend develops?

01:12:46 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:27 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Resilience Engineering website & Danielle DiMartino Booth interviews Vikram Mansharamani on YouTube

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI124: Why smart people often struggle with systematic investing ft. Jerry Parker Jan 24, 2021

Show notes

Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:41 – Macro recap from Niels

03:54 – Weekly review of performance

52:18 – Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases?

57:55 – Benchmark performance update

01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, Corey Hoffstein on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots Podcast & Jack Schwager on The Derivative Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI123: The benefits of NOT taking profits too early ft. Moritz Seibert Jan 18, 2021

Show notes

In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out? What are your views on stop-losses?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:40 – Macro recap from Niels

05:06 – Weekly review of performance

53:15 – Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach?

59:14 – Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades?

01:12:09 – Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers?

01:17:30 – Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs?

01:20:22 – Benchmark performance update

01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art Berman & Danielle Dimartino-Booth on The Felder Report Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI122: Quant vs Discretionary Investing ft. Robert Carver Jan 10, 2021

Show notes

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:07 – Macro recap from Niels

03:59 – Weekly review of performance

47:20 – Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?

54:42 – Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?

01:02:30 – Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?

01:08:46 – Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?

01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update

01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine’s articles Bloomberg, The RInger Podcast: ‘Gamblers’ & Tim Harford’s Cautionary Tales Podcast on the COVID Vaccine

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI121: How to Design a Profitable Trend Following System Jan 06, 2021

Show notes

In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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