Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI104: Inconvenient truths about Trend Following ft. Roberto Osorio Sep 07, 2020

Show notes

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Roberto Osorio, Vice President, Trading Systems at DUNN Capital, onto the show. Niels pitches Roberto some of our most fiercely debated topics so far, such as the optimal amount of markets to trade, diversification in all of its forms, the pros & cons of Volatility Targeting, how to accurately recognise model decay, Black Swan strategies and why they maintain popularity regardless of performance, the best look-back period for Trend Following strategies, and if today’s speed of information flow has led to stock market crashes & fast recoveries being the new normal.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:07 – Macro recap from Niels

08:49 – Weekly review of performance

09:26 – Interview with Roberto Osorio

12:03 – Niels: Can you help settle the debate of how many markets are optimal to trade?

19:00 – Niels: What are your thoughts on Volatility-targeting?

30:41 – Niels: How do you recognise model decay?

36:23 – Niels: What do you think is the best look-back period for Trend Following models?

44:40 – Niels: What is your view on the most effective ‘type’ of Trend Following model?

50:43 – Niels: What makes DUNN Capital so unique?

55:52 – Benchmark performance update

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI103: FED's Powell, Dave Portnoy and the potential Bond market bubble ft. Robert Carver Aug 31, 2020

Show notes

Rob Carver returns to the show this week to discuss Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the potential Bond market bubble that very few are talking about, the sweet-spot for Trend Following fund AUMs, Dave Portnoy’s influence on Robinhood traders, Tom Basso’s recent interview with Meb Faber, and the continual need to improve your successful trading strategies. Questions we answer this week include: Do you know of any Trend Following funds who use the Black-Litterman model of asset allocation? Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:01 – Macro recap from Niels

22:22 – Weekly review of performance

42:34 – Q1; Mike: Do you know of any Trend Followers who use the Black-Litterman model in their work?

55:31 – Q2; Michael: Should you combine the weight of more than 1 entry signal, for added effectiveness?

01:02:30 – Q3; from Twitter, for Rob: Do you have any update on using forecast-strength in a trading system?

01:09:02 – Q4; from Twitter: Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?

01:22:28 – Benchmark performance update

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM09: Mistakes from the past to guide us forward ft. Lyn Alden Aug 26, 2020

Show notes

We are very pleased to welcome Lyn Alden to the studio today, the founder of Lyn Alden investment strategy. Lyn is from an engineering background, and hence, as you might expect, brings a logical and rigorous approach to thinking about economics and financial markets. In our fascinating conversation Lyn was able to draw on her considerable knowledge and understanding of history to inform us in thinking about today’s problems. Our discussion spanned high level thinking about multi decade trends, but also very granular recommendations for the portfolio of assets you should hold today.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

Long run debt cycles
Deleveraging and inflation in the 1920’s and 1940’s
The 2008 Great Financial Crisis
The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
Debt and demographics
QE and inflation
Geopolitics and the possibility of war
Portfolio inflation hedging
Bitcoin
Debt jubilees
Pension fund investing in a low yield world

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Lyn on Twitter.

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI102: TESLA and the famous Tech Bubble ft. Moritz Seibert Aug 23, 2020

Show notes

This week, we discuss Tesla’s meteoric stock price rise and its likely inclusion into the S&P 500, similarities between today’s parabolic moves in the stock market and the famous tech bubble, why the current outlook for markets necessitates a place for investing in Trend Following strategies, Germany’s move to tax investors on their gold ETF holdings, Volatility-focused trading strategies, and the differences in making adjustments to short term systems vs long term systems. Questions answered this week include: At what point do you decide that your system is no longer working? How do you adjust for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:12 – Macro recap from Niels

17:53 – Weekly review of performance

22:52 – Discussion on how to safely own gold, and the German government’s move to tax investors on their Gold ETF holdings

31:56 – Q1 & Q2; Zaro: At what point do you decide that your model isn’t working? How do you account for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?

51:05 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM08: Watch out for The Bond Market Vigilantes ft. Jim Bianco Aug 21, 2020

Show notes

In today’s episode we are joined by Jim Bianco, the president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.

Jim is a true master when it comes to providing objective, data-driven research with a unique perspective and is very generous when it comes to sharing it, which I’m sure you will agree with after listening to today’s conversation.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

The uniqueness of the 2020 financial crisis
How the Federal Reserve has been aggressively manipulating the bond markets
The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
The current retail stock market ‘mania’
The only group who can bring bond markets down: The Bond Market Vigilantes
The scale and risk of the Federal Reserve’s borrowing and money printing
Implications of the recent, wild price swings in Oil
How the Corona Virus may have accelerated trends that were already beginning to occur
How the future may be bright, but the journey to get there may prove to be difficult
Jim’s thoughts on how to be positioned for the times ahead

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Jim on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey Aug 19, 2020

Show notes

In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.

Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great Depression
How the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisis
Why politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxes
How 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemics
Why Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recession
Why the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numbered
Why central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currencies
Technology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen before
Cam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the future
Why peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Campbell on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI101: Howard Mark’s comments on managing risk and market cycles ft. Moritz Seibert Aug 17, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, we discuss the danger of financial products such as the Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN, the potential end of the 2020 bull market in stocks, Howard Mark’s recent quotes on managing risk & market cycles, how a Trend Following mentality can have a positive affect on your world-view, patience for your system vs patience for an individual position, and why needing to ‘agree’ with your trades can be a dangerous idea. Questions we answer this week include: How do you avoid losing large open profits during a parabolic move? Is CAGR a good measure of performance?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:15 – Macro recap from Niels

04:10 – Weekly review of performance

11:25 – Howard Marks quotes on risk management and market cycles

29:11 – Patience for your system vs for an individual position

34:36 – Q1; Rene: How do you avoid losing a big profit during a parabolic move?

40:10 – Q2 & Q3; Peregrin: Do you have any evidence of systems working better when its positions match our opinion of the macro ‘story’? Does Trend Following system alert its manager to crowd opinions they might otherwise be unaware of?

48:48 – Q4; Maurigus: Is CAGR a good measure of performance?

57:06 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI100: How to filter your trades and staying unemotional ft. Jerry Parker Aug 10, 2020

Show notes

In this special anniversary edition of the Systematic Investor podcast, Jerry Parker joins us on the show to discuss why removing as many filters as possible may be beneficial to your trading system, why we could actually be living in the most ‘certain’ times in history, the importance of laser-like focus and unemotional trading during the best & worst periods, Jerry’s incredible story of despair to eventual victory as a Trading Turtle under Richard Dennis, the fallacy of aiming for the ‘perfect’ system, Cliff Asness’s quotes on Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting With Models podcast, the deep history of Trend Following, and a lot more!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction

03:13 – Macro recap from Niels

08:16 – Weekly review of performance

13:54 – The benefits of keeping it simple

17:20 – Why you should take every trade & follow your rules

26:16 – Jerry’s incredible story from his journey with Richard Dennis’s ‘Trading Turtles’

27:30 – Some more thoughts on Volatility Targeting

48:19 – The best performing sectors historically among Trend Followers

50:24 – The deep history of Trend Following investors

51:31 – Cliff Asness quotes from the Flirting With Models podcast

01:00:41 – Performance recap

01:31:00 – Some personal highlights, on our 100th episode

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM06: The hidden danger of Passive Investing ft. Michael Green Aug 04, 2020

Show notes

In today’s episode, we are joined by Michael Green. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

Passive investing
ETFs and target date funds
Intergenerational inequality
Real interest rates over history
Mean reversion and momentum
Negative interest rates
Leverage: recourse vs no recourse (limited liability)
MMT
Yield enhancement strategies

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Michael on Twitter.

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI99: Trend Following on ETFs and how to safely invest more aggressively in stocks ft. Moritz Seibert Aug 03, 2020

Show notes

In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns. We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity? Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:44 – Macro recap from Niels

03:00 – Weekly review of returns

04:25 – The importance of non-correlated strategies such as Trend Following or Volatility-based

15:17 – Q’s 1, 2 & 3; Bruno: What is your chosen measure of liquidity, and how liquid does a market have to be, to be included in your portfolios? How do you size positions, with co-movements in mind? Are you always trading the front-month contract?

26:37 – Q4; Walter: How do you test your system’s code?

33:14 – Q’s 5 & 6; Zack: Does Trend Following on ETFs work? What are the optimal time periods when analysing market correlation data?

45:01 – Q7: Michael: Do you place your trades at the close, open, or other times?

50:23 – Performance recap

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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