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    Business

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think – not just what they trade.
    Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
    No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators – revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
    If you’re building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise – this is your edge.
    Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
    🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Copyright 2024 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.

    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    SI399: AI, Inflation and the Portfolio That Refuses to Sit Still ft. Alan Dunne May 09, 2026
    Show notes

    Today, Niels and Alan examine a market shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI’s promise of higher productivity and the inflationary pressure of geopolitical stress. From distorted economic data and shifting rate expectations to energy shocks, fiscal pressure, and the changing role of trend following, this conversation explores why traditional portfolios may need more flexibility than they once did. Alan also shares a world exclusive on the launch of his Regime Adaptive Fund, built around the idea that portfolios should not simply sit through changing regimes, but adjust as markets, inflation, and correlations evolve. A timely discussion on risk, resilience, and the limits of old playbooks.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

    00:36 - Niels welcomes Alan Dunne back to the Systematic Investor Series

    01:31 - How AI is distorting economic data, earnings, and construction trends

    06:13 - UK council elections, Reform UK, and pressure on political assumptions

    09:00 - Trend following update and the shift in fixed income exposure

    13:35 - Why recent macro shocks have created a favorable backdrop for trend followers

    16:45 - AI, Iran, and the collision between positive and negative supply shocks

    26:22 - Graham Capital’s research on macro performance across monetary regimes

    37:09 - AQR’s view on multi-asset portfolios, trend following, and inflation risk

    46:07 - Why diversification still comes with discomfort

    51:26 - Should trend following trade equities when stacked on equities?

    56:38 - Alan reveals the launch of the Regime Adaptive Fund

    01:05:42 - Equity market strength, hidden risks, and portfolio construction today

    01:08:46 - Closing thoughts and upcoming episode preview

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    OI22: Inside the Next Generation Market Wizards ft. Jack Schwager & George Coyle May 07, 2026
    Show notes

    What does it take to become a true Market Wizard, and why do so many of them fail before they find their edge? In this special episode, Moritz Seibert sits down with Jack Schwager and George Coyle to discuss The Next Generation of Market Wizards, the sixth book in the series that began in 1989. Together, they explore how extraordinary traders are found, how their records are verified in an age of AI, and why many of the most remarkable returns still come from discretionary traders. From blown-up accounts and shorting small caps to the psychological cost of sitting in front of screens for 14 hours a day, this is a rare look at the craft, pressure, and persistence behind exceptional trading.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Moritz on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Why single trading systems rarely produce “wizard-level” returns

    01:17 – Introduction to the new Market Wizards book

    02:37 – George Coyle’s background and path to co-authoring

    05:00 – What makes this new book different (focus on solo traders)

    06:00 – How top traders are discovered

    10:46 – Verifying extreme performance claims in the AI era

    13:26 – The most surprising trait: repeated early failure

    15:54 – New-generation strategies that break “classic” rules

    19:02 – Timeless trading principles that still hold

    21:16 – Why most market wizards are discretionary, not systematic

    24:41 – Why individual quant systems rarely achieve extreme returns

    26:53 – Listener question: systematic vs discretionary trading

    30:17 – Personality traits of elite traders

    32:21 – The hidden “cost” of being a top trader

    35:50 – Can anyone become a market wizard?

    38:47 – What’s changed in trading edges over time

    41:53 – Preview of the next book (hedge fund traders)

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    GM99: Gold, Trust, and the Return of Real Assets ft. Philip Diehl May 06, 2026
    Show notes

    Today, we are joined by Philip Diehl, former Director of the United States Mint and President of U.S. Money Reserve, for a timely conversation about gold’s renewed role in a world shaped by inflation, geopolitical stress, central bank demand, and uncertainty around fiat currencies. Philip explains why gold’s recent rise is not simply a speculative move, but part of a broader shift in how governments, institutions, and individuals think about wealth preservation. From central bank buying and Chinese retail demand to Bitcoin, ETFs, physical coins, and the limits of the U.S. dollar system, this episode explores why gold is once again moving from the margins of portfolios toward the center of the macro conversation.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

    Follow Philip on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 - Why Philip Diehl believes investors should “buy the dip” in gold

    01:14 - Philip’s career from public policy to the U.S. Mint

    06:08 - What U.S. Money Reserve does and why physical gold matters

    08:08 - The forces behind gold’s powerful multi-year rally

    13:08 - Central bank buying, dollar risk, and portfolio diversification

    19:05 - Why some central banks may sell gold during stress

    22:18 - Chinese demand, cultural memory, and the role of retail buyers

    28:32 - Why Philip does not see Bitcoin as “digital gold”

    32:44 - Physical gold versus ETFs and the question of ownership

    37:10 - How retail investors behave during gold bull markets

    41:16 - Portfolio allocation and the changing case for gold

    45:52 - Why Philip expects gold to outperform equities over the next decade

    48:15 - Why today’s gold market is not a repeat of the 1970s

    52:21 - Gold miners, production limits, and rising extraction costs

    55:58 - Fort Knox, revaluing U.S. gold reserves, and political reality

    59:24 - Lessons from Philip’s career and how to learn more about gold

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI398: Navigating a VUCA World ft. Mark Rzepczynski May 02, 2026
    Show notes

    Today, we explore what it means to invest in a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). We discuss why geopolitical shocks... especially supply-driven ones... are creating persistent trends across markets, and why trend-following strategies are thriving despite strong equity performance. The conversation dives into how investors process information (or fail to), the limits of central bank responses to supply shocks, and why markets may not be fully pricing in current risks. Mark also shares new research comparing hedge fund strategies under different volatility regimes, highlighting why managed futures stand out as a robust diversifier. The episode closes with a forward-looking discussion on AI, replication strategies, and the growing role of narrative versus data in investment decision-making.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 – Introduction: Preparing for the unpredictable

    00:36 – Entering a VUCA world: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity

    02:00 – “Uncharted territory” in markets and beyond

    05:30 – Central banks, leadership changes, and policy uncertainty

    07:16 – Oil markets, OPEC shifts, and geopolitical tension

    10:16 – Trend-following performance update and market context

    14:06 – Reverse engineering CTAs and the role of AI

    18:42 – Replication strategies vs. true alpha

    22:41 – Trend-following performance metrics (April update)

    24:43 – Supply shocks and why they’re harder to manage

    28:53 – Are markets underreacting to geopolitical risk?

    31:53 – Information overload, ambiguity, and trend persistence

    34:54 – Why more data doesn’t mean better decisions

    38:34 – Government intervention vs. market-driven trends

    40:30 – Pandemic policies and unintended inflation

    43:00 – New research: hedge fund strategies vs. volatility regimes

    47:16 – Why managed futures stand out as diversifiers

    51:11 – Narrative vs. data in investment decisions

    55:36 – AI, sentiment analysis, and the future of models

    58:46 – Simplicity vs. complexity in strategy design

    01:00:49 – Bundling vs. unbundling investment strategies

    01:03:18 – Momentum crashes and new research directions

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    IL48: The Misunderstood Economics of Africa ft. Joe Studwell Apr 29, 2026
    Show notes

    In this episode Kevin Coldiron is joined by bestselling author Joe Studwell who speaks about his new book How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World’s Last Development Frontier. We discuss why many of our perceptions about Africa are wrong - why one big problem has been too few people, not too many and why the continent isn’t as resource-rich as we think. Joe talks us through some surprising success stories - like Rwanda’s emulation of Singapore and Botswana’s success in avoiding “the resource curse”. This is the time to begin researching and understanding the opportunities in a continent that has more land mass than the US, China and India combined and will eventually be home to the majority of the world’s young people.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

    Follow Joe on LinkedIn and read his book.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:01 - Introduction to the episode and guest

    02:04 - Why the book was written and initial motivation

    05:50 - Outsider perspective and reactions in Africa

    07:22 - The core idea: population density and development

    08:22 - Why Africa’s growth lagged historically

    14:23 - Population growth and changing economic potential

    15:39 - Colonialism in Africa vs Asia

    20:14 - Land, agriculture, and development differences

    23:55 - Rise of private sector and food production

    25:57 - Resources and the limits of extractive growth

    29:56 - Botswana and managing resource wealth

    36:21 - Rwanda’s development model and governance

    44:41 - Ethnic dynamics and future stability

    50:24 - China’s role and manufacturing potential

    56:04 - Investing in Africa and long term outlook

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI397: The Market Isn’t Free Anymore, It’s Being Managed ft. Cem Karsan Apr 25, 2026
    Show notes

    Today Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine a market environment where politics, geopolitics and liquidity are becoming harder to separate. Cem argues that recent market strength is not just a reaction to better news, but part of a broader effort to manage risk, support collateral values and prepare for deeper geopolitical stress. From rising military spending and the Strait of Hormuz to treasury demand, QIS growth, AI and the next inflation wave, this conversation is about what happens when markets stop being passive observers and become tools in a larger strategic contest.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00:01 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

    00:00:35 - Niels and Cem reconnect and set the stage

    00:01:51 - Truth, narratives and the blurring of reality

    00:04:15 - Fed independence, politics and credibility

    00:07:45 - The rise of QIS and demand for alternative strategies

    00:12:52 - Trend following update and current market performance

    00:15:23 - Framing the disconnect between markets and reality

    00:20:09 - Liquidity, market rallies and strategic positioning

    00:25:08 - Are markets being actively managed

    00:34:51 - The real geopolitical battle and the role of China

    00:40:32 - What investors may be underpricing

    00:52:55 - Why markets can rise despite growing risks

    00:55:56 - Treasury demand, intervention and future policy paths

    00:58:04 - Inflation, debt monetization and long term outlook

    01:02:16 - AI, deflation and the political response

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    UGO11: Fiscal Dominance, Dollar Power, and the Politics Driving Markets ft. Lyn Alden Apr 22, 2026
    Show notes

    Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Cem on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting

    00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion

    00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance

    00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics

    00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion

    00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege

    00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation

    00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences

    00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens

    00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s

    00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law

    00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses

    00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets

    01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto

    01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver Apr 18, 2026
    Show notes

    Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rob on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop

    04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing

    10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension

    13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles

    17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results

    20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown

    25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed

    27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers

    31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing

    43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction

    52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities

    01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies

    01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    TTU152: Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel Apr 15, 2026
    Show notes

    Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

    Find out more about DUNN Capital

    Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.

    Episode Timestamps:

    00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain

    01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career

    03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure

    06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge

    08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time

    14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets

    17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants

    20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior

    24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis

    32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies

    39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge

    40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading

    51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume

    56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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    SI395: Finding Alpha in the Strait of Chaos ft. Andrew Beer Apr 11, 2026
    Show notes

    Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Andrew on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises

    03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones

    04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences

    06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape

    10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs

    12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions

    16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026

    21:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies

    22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies

    25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance

    32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction

    39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading

    52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta

    57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products

    01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints

    01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs

    01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investing

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


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