Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

OI21: The Hidden Edge in Markets No One Is Trading ft. Tom Babbedge Apr 08, 2026

Show notes

What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity markets offer a distinct source of diversification and trend. They explore how structural supply and demand imbalances create persistent price moves, why many financial markets behave as one during stress, and how capacity constraints shape portfolio construction. The conversation also examines how markets are selected, how execution differs from traditional CTAs, and why understanding who trades a market may matter more than any backtest.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the episode and guest

02:04 - Why focus only on commodity markets

03:59 - The myth of diversification through more markets

05:01 - Structural differences within commodity markets

06:22 - Why financial markets behave as one in crises

07:57 - Capacity constraints and portfolio construction

11:18 - Adding and removing markets from the portfolio

13:28 - How to identify truly alternative markets

16:40 - Trend quality vs trend quantity explained

19:11 - Structural drivers behind commodity trends

20:01 - Case study European carbon and trend persistence

26:59 - Execution as an edge in systematic trading

32:42 - Reducing trading costs through patience

40:09 - Why investors allocate to alternative commodity strategies

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI394: The Quarter That Tested Every Trend Follower ft. Katy Kaminski & Harry Moore Apr 04, 2026

Show notes

Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performance to examine portfolio construction, from market selection and speed to the growing relevance of portable alpha. Along the way, they revisit periods of drawdown, investor behavior, and the role of liquidity in crisis environments, offering a grounded perspective on how systematic strategies respond when conditions change quickly.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Harry on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and episode framing

01:38 - Market backdrop and Q1 volatility

07:29 - Trend following performance through Q1

09:36 - Diversification vs equities and bonds

11:21 - Dispersion across managers explained

14:32 - Trend vs non trend strategies

18:40 - A month that tested every component of trend

21:17 - Optimal market mix and research insights

30:00 - Macro factors and what trend captures

35:57 - Portable alpha and cash efficiency

42:23 - Risks in portable alpha construction

49:04 - Drawdowns and investor behavior

53:37 - Why trend recovers after shocks

01:00:51 - Measuring alpha in macro strategies

01:06:51 - Geopolitics and future opportunities

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM98: Powerlessness Is Rising and Nobody Is Ready ft. Peter Atwater Apr 01, 2026

Show notes

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion

02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability

04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom

06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making

09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems

12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives

17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict

19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure

22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities

25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension

29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints

33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world

39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk

48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git Mar 28, 2026

Show notes

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the series

01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments

01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning

04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes

06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly

09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality

14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down

17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty

24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints

27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic

37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations

41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets

49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained

56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL47: The AI Revolution That Will Redefine What It Means to Be Human ft. Craig Mundie Mar 25, 2026

Show notes

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extremely compressed, with dramatic breakthroughs in energy and work happening in the next few years. We also discuss the long-term implications of AI-generated knowledge and solutions that will likely be beyond our understanding. What questions should we ask and what preparations should we make - both individually and collectively as citizens - to prepare this future?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Craig on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:06 - AI as a collaborator and the end of traditional human evolution

01:41 - Introduction to the Ideas Lab series and Craig Mundie

03:48 - How the book Genesis came together

09:52 - AI vs human learning and the rise of machine polymaths

17:40 - When machines discover things humans cannot understand

20:36 - The future of the scientific method in an AI-driven world

25:48 - From tools to a new species: redefining our relationship with AI

27:24 - Why AI adoption may outpace institutions and society

33:26 - Energy, infrastructure, and global competition in AI

40:55 - Wealth, labor, and the economic impact of abundant intelligence

50:51 - Alignment, control, and the limits of human oversight

58:25 - The ultimate question: do humans evolve or merge with AI

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI392: The Hidden Cracks in Systematic Strategies No One Talks About ft. Nick Baltas Mar 21, 2026

Show notes

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop

01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty

03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns

08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets

11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance

14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility

18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update

27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models

38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies

48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows

55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns

01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO34: Building an Asset Owner Mindset in Modern Pension Investing ft. Dan Mikulskis Mar 18, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion for millions of members, Dan explains how scale changes the way portfolios are constructed, managers are selected, and partnerships are built. The conversation explores the balance between passive and active strategies, diversification beyond equities, and the growing role of private markets. Dan also shares insights on governance, investment philosophy, and why humility is essential when making asset allocation decisions in complex global markets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Dan on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:33 - Introduction to the global macro series

02:18 - Introducing Dan Mikulskis and his background

03:38 - From actuarial science to investment consulting

05:45 - The history and growth of People’s Partnership

08:18 - Auto-enrolment and the rise of large UK pension schemes

11:12 - What it means to operate as an asset owner

13:24 - Building the investment team and ownership model

18:34 - Scale advantages in manager relationships and partnerships

23:24 - How large asset owners select external managers

28:58 - Balancing core partnerships and specialist managers

34:25 - Macro insights and quarterly investment forums

37:34 - Portfolio construction and diversified growth strategies

43:19 - Concentration risk and global equity allocations

50:44 - Factor investing and style diversification

53:30 - The role of hedge funds and alternative strategies

56:08 - Total portfolio approach in pension investing

58:56 - Measuring performance and evaluating investment teams

01:03:18 - Career advice for future CIOs

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI391: Why Trend Following Works... the Evidence ft. Richard Brennan Mar 14, 2026

Show notes

What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Drawing on research spanning 68 futures markets across four decades, Richard explains why markets exhibit persistent trends, fat-tailed returns, and volatility clustering. The discussion moves from oil market shocks to deeper questions about feedback loops, participant behavior, and regime shifts in financial markets. The conclusion is striking: trend following does not rely on fragile patterns. It aligns with fundamental structural properties embedded in how markets actually evolve.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

02:08 - Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike

06:10 - Why calm markets can hide explosive potential

11:47 - How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy

15:29 - Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions

22:15 - A changing regime that may favor trend following

24:43 - The research behind The Fractals of Finance

25:25 - Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent

31:22 - Why trends are structural rather than random patterns

36:25 - Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected

41:12 - Divergent vs convergent market participants

45:29 - The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting

49:33 - Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets

55:33 - Why trend following aligns with market structure

59:02 - Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO33: The Psychology Behind Better Asset Allocation ft. Aoifinn Devitt Mar 11, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Aoifinn Devitt about what it really means to build resilient portfolios in a world of shifting regimes and competing narratives. Drawing on experience across pensions, hedge fund advisory, and private wealth, Aoifinn reflects on how institutional lessons translate to individual investors. The conversation explores the role of diversification, the evolving case for private markets, and the limitations of labels such as hedge funds, factors, or alternative assets. Along the way, they discuss the behavioral traps that influence allocators, the challenges of manager selection, and why outcome based investing may offer a clearer framework for navigating uncertain markets.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Aoifinn on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 - Introducing Aoifinn Devitt and her background

03:14 - From corporate law to a career in finance

05:16 - Institutional vs private wealth portfolio construction

09:47 - How macro regimes influence asset allocation

12:53 - Rethinking the endowment model and private markets

15:32 - Private credit and diversification challenges

18:13 - Total portfolio approach vs traditional allocation

21:27 - Bonds, equities, and changing correlations

27:52 - Concentration risk and the dominance of mega cap stocks

37:33 - The evolving role of hedge funds in portfolios

42:35 - Gold, commodities, and inflation protection

46:23 - Behavioral biases and long term market cycles

57:35 - Advice for young professionals entering finance

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne Mar 07, 2026

Show notes

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives

03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices

10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies

15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio

23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets

25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference

37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed

46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift

50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios

58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices

01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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