Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git Jul 18, 2026

Show notes

Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations

06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns

12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning

18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals

25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure

36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets

39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained

47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from

55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour

01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy

01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investing

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg Jul 15, 2026

Show notes

More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics

09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets

15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading

21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets

31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected

37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications

43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals

48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months

58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally

01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities

01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom

01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from here

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne Jul 11, 2026

Show notes

Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing

05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading

12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers

15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story

20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy

30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following

38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following

46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure

49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled

55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading

01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend following

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley Jul 08, 2026

Show notes

The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Brendan on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny

00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history

06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics

11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money

17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States

26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency

29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation

34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance

40:09 - Could global finance split into competing currency blocs

44:21 - Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful

50:01 - Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter

52:53 - Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendation

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan Jul 04, 2026

Show notes

Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries

03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets

07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy

09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs

15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism

19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system

30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage

37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different

45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury

50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months

52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst

57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren Jul 01, 2026

Show notes

While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan, she explores how artificial intelligence, advanced energy, shifting diplomacy and technological innovation could reshape the global economy and even reduce the risk of war. From the future of the US dollar and China to nuclear energy, robotics and non human intelligence, this conversation challenges conventional thinking and offers an unusually optimistic perspective on one of the most consequential periods in modern history.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Pippa on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why Pippa believes the future is far more optimistic than most expect

01:05 - Reuniting after four years and revisiting major geopolitical themes

03:11 - Digital finance, transparency and the changing role of the US Treasury

06:40 - Ukraine, foreign policy and the debate over hidden funding networks

12:01 - Why Pippa believes the world is moving toward a superpower rapprochement

22:17 - The US dollar, China and competing visions of global leadership

30:49 - Lessons from history, diplomacy and the search for lasting peace

39:38 - Nuclear energy, AI and the race toward technological abundance

45:48 - Populism, inequality and whether AI will widen or close the wealth gap

55:32 - How societies can prepare for an AI driven future

58:10 - Greenland, the Arctic and the strategic battle for space infrastructure

01:04:20 - Pippa's father, diplomacy and the lessons that shaped her worldview

01:09:28 - Non human intelligence, AI and the profound questions facing humanity

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski Jun 27, 2026

Show notes

Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan

05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994

10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns

14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough

20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year

23:10 - What defines a market regime change

27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities

39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers

48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes

56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress

01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain markets

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL50: Why Central Banks Are Losing Control of Inflation ft. Manoj Pradhan Jun 24, 2026

Show notes

Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal and his new book The Unanchored Central Banker, he argues that aging populations, labor shortages, rising fiscal deficits, and the changing role of central banks are creating a very different macroeconomic landscape. The conversation explores why demographics matter more than many models assume, whether AI can offset labor shortages, and why central banks may increasingly be forced to choose between controlling inflation and maintaining fiscal stability.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Manoj on LinkedIn and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why demographics matter for inflation and central banks

03:05 - The demographic sweet spot that lowered inflation and rates

06:28 - Why labor supply is now reversing

12:15 - Global birth rates and the replacement rate problem

17:03 - The fiscal blind spot in conventional economic models

20:31 - Housing, urbanization, and real interest rates

27:03 - Can AI offset labor shortages?

37:24 - Policy ideas to increase labor supply and manage aging

45:40 - Why central banks may become “unanchored”

50:40 - The tension between inflation control and debt stability

54:49 - Could high rates trigger a crisis and force policy reversal?

58:28 - Final thoughts on demographics, debt, and the future of inflation

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver Jun 20, 2026

Show notes

Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK

02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair

06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency

10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning

14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction

19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return

22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia

29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns

42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes

55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominant source of trend returns

56:06 - AI generated trading strategies and the risk of overfitting

01:05:48 - Drawdowns, diversification and lessons from recent research

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis Jun 17, 2026

Show notes

Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Michael on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead

01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics

06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances

09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances

17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression

27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult

35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit?

40:24 - Can the United States successfully reindustrialize?

45:31 - Why Europe may eventually turn toward protectionism

52:17 - The US deficit, global capital flows and the burden of dollar dominance

01:01:50 - Why the renminbi is unlikely to replace the dollar

01:10:45 - Historical trade imbalances and how painful adjustments unfold

01:16:21 - What Japan’s experience reveals about China’s future

01:21:02 - Final reflections on debt, globalization and economic adjustment

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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