Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne Jan 27, 2024

Show notes

As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:26 - The importance of liquidity

06:39 - The global macro picture

11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?

16:10 - What about China?

21:24 - Industry performance update

24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?

32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds

37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns

43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?

55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?

57:28 - The outlook of the next decade

01:02:32 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark Jan 24, 2024

Show notes

Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Casey on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark

07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?

10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?

12:04 - Who are their clients?

12:45 - How do they build their strategies?

14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI

16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?

17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers

21:49 - Having the right benchmark

24:34 - What makes a good investment process?

26:08 - How do they come up with new ideas?

30:13 - Investing with ESG in mind

34:30 - A constraint or opportunity?

36:56 - Are we approaching a changing investment environment?

41:55 - How mega trends will shape the macro landscape

50:36 - A shift in the 60/40 portfolio?

54:17 - Is there a place for alternatives?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski Jan 20, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - A funny story from Katy

02:34 - An important shout-out

03:42 - A rare event in Denmark

06:55 - Industry performance update

08:10 - Thoughts on 2024 so far

09:42 - The difference between momentum and trend following

13:53 - Convergent vs. divergent strategies

24:08 - What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?

28:03 - What makes you a pure trend follower?

32:53 - Looking back at 2023

37:48 - An unusual year

43:22 - Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income

47:43 - How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?

51:11 - What does your position mean?

54:40 - Next big bull market in commodities?

56:10 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK 279: From Bears to Bulls?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan Jan 17, 2024

Show notes

Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Dave on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation

07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?

14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity

24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?

31:35 - A system under pressure

38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?

42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?

53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?

01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin

01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver Jan 13, 2024

Show notes

Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?

10:14 - Industry performance update

11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?

19:46 - Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system

29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program

37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?

41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies

45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!

52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin

01:04:31 - Looking into 2024

01:08:38 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson Jan 10, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Scott on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson

08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?

13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?

20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?

22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?

24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?

26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading

30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach

31:26 - A need for long-term?

33:09 - What is the capacity of the markets?

34:28 - What is the total AUM of alternative market CTAs today?

35:30 - Their core research philosophy

37:53 - The key barriers to entry

39:52 - How have they gone through 2023?

41:07 - Is there any market that stand out from the others?

43:16 - The outlook of the alternative markets CTA space

45:36 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan Jan 06, 2024

Show notes

Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?

11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?

16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?

24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation

27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?

32:19 - Under the hood of inflation

34:23 - What is normal?

39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world

46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?

49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective

53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball

59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge

01:03:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast Jan 03, 2024

Show notes

In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Joe Prendergast

04:50 - Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse

07:00 - What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?

09:49 - Prendergast's investment philosophy

13:59 - How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?

16:32 - Could we have another 2022?

18:56 - Having metrics for success

26:50 - Managing cash flow

31:43 - Shooting for a higher return

39:33 - Dealing with bumps on the road

43:48 - Prendergast's experience with the hedge fund industry

46:29 - Working as a Europe based FX investor

51:10 - Balancing attractive earnings capabilities vs a higher valuation starting point

55:13 - How Prendergast incorporates ESGs in his allocation

59:46 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2 Dec 30, 2023

Show notes

In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable world

09:50 - What is a considered as a good backtest?

21:09 - How much change is too much change?

28:50 - Our most important lesson in 2023

36:11 - What is the next phase of the fixed income trade?

46:01 - Geopolitics and looking into 2024

55:42 - Should we go all out diversification?

01:05:14 - Outrageous predictions for 2024

01:10:32 - Happy New Year!

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters Dec 27, 2023

Show notes

Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Gregory on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters

05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?

06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro

11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve

15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?

19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot

22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias

24:11 - The yield is destiny

27:28 - What range are we operating in?

28:43 - Will inflation be stickier than we expect?

33:03 - The impact of a changing globalization

35:42 - Analyzing the poor productivity numbers

38:05 - The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy

42:54 - China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio

44:27 - Opportunities in emerging markets

46:47 - Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function

49:13 - How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?

51:29 - The possibilities of recession

56:19 - Advice for other investors

57:59 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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