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    Business

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think – not just what they trade.
    Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
    No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators – revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
    If you’re building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise – this is your edge.
    Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
    🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Copyright 2024 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.

    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer Apr 06, 2024
    Show notes

    Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Andrew on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?

    05:38 - Industry performance update

    06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?

    11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?

    13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following

    16:58 - Industry performance update continued

    18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?

    22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?

    30:51 - A period of normalcy

    34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative

    42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?

    46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?

    52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)

    57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation

    01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation

    01:07:11 - Different allocations for different situations?

    01:11:10 - Too old for unrealistic expectations

    Resources discussed in this Episode:

    • LINK SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following | Man Institute

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec Apr 03, 2024
    Show notes

    Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:50 - Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec

    07:06 - A new initiative

    10:01 - What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?

    12:40 - What goes into which bucket?

    14:45 - What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?

    16:31 - Constructing an absolute return portfolio

    18:38 - How they approach trend following

    21:58 - Why do they use leverage?

    23:32 - What do they expect from their portfolio?

    25:12 - Managing liabilities

    27:58 - Public equities - where do they stand?

    30:59 - Investing in niche strategies

    34:11 - How they evaluate managers

    36:21 - Open to early stage manager risk?

    41:42 - What makes a manager stand out?

    44:56 - When should you remove a manager?

    46:47 - What is their governance process?

    50:36 - How they make decisions as a team

    52:20 - Advice for new investors

    55:34 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski Mar 30, 2024
    Show notes

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Mark on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman

    03:54 - Things are changing

    09:54 - Industry performance update

    13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing

    16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa

    21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect

    24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?

    28:31 - Less markets = better performance?

    30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market

    39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index

    45:09 - A euphoric environment

    49:47 - What makes trend following unique?

    54:50 - Global macro vs. trend following

    59:01 - A rotation in the alternative markets

    01:03:15 - Thanks for listening

    Resources discussed in this Episode:

    • LINK SI289: Global Macro and Managed Futures Hedge Fund Strategies: Portfolio Differentiators?
    • LINK SI289: A Century of Macro Factor Investing

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser Mar 27, 2024
    Show notes

    In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia.

    Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Moritz on Twitter.

    Follow Tony on LinkedIn

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:16 - Introduction to Tony Kaiser

    04:07 - An interesting journey

    16:50 - A difficult space for alpha

    20:55 - Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?

    28:17 - How has trading frequency and systems evolved?

    33:15 - Do Kaiser's original models still work today?

    45:28 - A shock to the system

    49:43 - Where does the low correlation come from?

    57:00 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne Mar 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?

    05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?

    14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?

    20:41 - Industry performance update

    24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook

    32:29 - Equities are here for the long term

    37:57 - All in on equities?

    44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong

    46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?

    50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?

    53:28 - Choosing the right strategy

    58:00 - Thanks for listening

    Resources discussed in this Episode:

    • LINK SI288: Why Not 100% Equities
    • LINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?
    • LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based Investing
    • LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
    • LINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View Mirror
    • LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?
    • LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift Framework
    • LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No
    • LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion Mar 20, 2024
    Show notes

    In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

    Follow Moritz on Twitter.

    Follow Ricardo on LinkedIn

    Follow Pedro on LinkedIn

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro

    06:18 - What is their edge?

    07:57 - What commodities are they trading?

    08:46 - Why they don't trade cocoa

    11:09 - Acquiring information through networking

    13:40 - Why and how do they trade commodity equities

    17:15 - What do they consider long-term?

    19:38 - Why isn't copper sky rocketing?

    22:01 - Their approach to options

    22:50 - How they incorporate trend following in their trading

    25:24 - Global macro perspectives

    27:28 - No hard landing?

    28:35 - Is the coal market dying?

    31:14 - The outlook of EUAs

    35:03 - Do they formulate a price target in their models?

    37:08 - A disconnect in the green transition

    38:58 - Natural gas market integrating with LNG

    40:55 - Their view on the grain markets

    43:34 - A quick touch on other markets

    44:20 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski Mar 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?

    03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?

    06:24 - Industry performance update

    07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?

    11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?

    12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator

    15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction

    20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?

    21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio

    24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?

    25:25 - The importance of skewness

    31:06 - Mind the timeframe

    34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)

    38:15 - No pain, no gain...

    43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)

    47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption

    50:48 - Excitement and worries about 2024

    57:05 - What is up for next episode?

    Resources discussed in this Episode:

    • LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
    • LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland Mar 13, 2024
    Show notes

    Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Alan on Twitter.

    Follow Tor on LinkedIn.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland

    06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?

    09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?

    11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm

    14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets

    17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?

    20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?

    22:55 - Translating trends into trades

    24:47 - Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?

    26:55 - A slow transition

    31:14 - The temperature of the global economy

    35:21 - Where will we see signs of recession?

    39:13 - Is disinflation a major trend?

    41:14 - How extreme can it get?

    42:42 - How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??

    45:13 - How the defense spending will impact markets

    47:07 - Taking advantage of the spikes in markets

    51:06 - How volatility sellers affect markets

    52:56 - Additional observations in the commodity markets

    55:18 - Putting it all together

    56:52 - Why has gold miners been so slow?

    58:27 - Private capital taking over?

    59:20 - Advice for other investors

    01:00:30 - Thanks for listening

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver Mar 09, 2024
    Show notes

    This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Rob on Twitter.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?

    06:31 - Industry performance update

    13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?

    23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?

    26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?

    32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?

    43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing

    50:37 - A win for trend following

    59:32 - Does it matter if the Fed is tightening?

    01:01:53 - The Impact of Contango vs. Backwardation

    01:09:57 - Thanks for listening

    Resources discussed in this Episode:

    • LINK SI288: Why Not 100% Equities
    • LINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?
    • LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based Investing
    • LINK SI286: Regime-Based Investing
    • LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut
    • LINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View Mirror
    • LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?
    • LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift Framework
    • LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No
    • LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


    IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie Mar 06, 2024
    Show notes

    In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment.

    -----

    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

    -----


    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

    Follow Hannah on LinkedIn andRead her Book.

    Episode TimeStamps:

    02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie

    09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?

    10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?

    16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?

    19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?

    21:53 - Natural gas - a perfect bridge?

    23:35 - Are EVs a viable solution for transportation?

    26:55 - Addressing the criticism of EVs

    30:31 - Why does a plant based diet have such a big environmental impact?

    34:05 - Why organic farming methods and local meat isn't really sustainable

    37:59 - Why is Ritchie skeptical about vertical farming?

    40:50 - Can plastic be positive for the environment?

    43:16 - Managing the plastic waste

    47:27 - Importing and export plastic waste

    49:38 - How to be an optimal data scientist

    56:11 - Key takeaways from Niels

    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

    ----

    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

    3. Other Resources that can help you

    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

    Privacy Policy

    Disclaimer


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