Top Traders Unplugged

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Latest Episodes:

SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan Mar 02, 2024

Show notes

Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:13 - Industry performance update

08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?

11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets

18:08 - Is the VIX broken?

24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections

30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?

32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's

39:15 - What is going on with flows?

47:55 - The rise of meme stocks

52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar

59:59 - A wild ride for Japan

01:05:54 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen Feb 28, 2024

Show notes

Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Peter on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm

06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?

09:16 - Their investment philosophy

14:33 - A skepticism about equities?

17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?

21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?

25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets

28:20 - Where lies the most risk?

30:25 - Opportunities in the private credit space

33:21 - Building a strong defense

38:29 - Why don't more people invest?

40:41 - Madsen's view on CTAs and Global Macro

45:51 - The pitfalls of manager selection

49:29 - How important is performance?

51:39 - Constructing an efficient decision-making process

56:24 - Guiding and assessing a team of managers

59:55 - Advice for other investors

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas Feb 24, 2024

Show notes

Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?

03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown

05:35 - Industry performance update

07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?

14:24 - The state of the industry

18:17 - Is trend following flopping?

27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios

36:15 - Pick your battles

49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?

53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?

01:04:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot Feb 21, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Richard on LinkedIn

Follow Bowmoor Capital.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot

05:19 - How did they get into investing?

09:43 - Why trend following?

13:55 - Solving the market puzzle

15:36 - How they designed their strategy?

18:46 - The reason for their market selection

24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?

31:13 - How did they design their system?

39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets

42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work with?

50:13 - Controlling the heat

55:31 - What is "heat" in a portfolio?

57:26 - How do they manage the heat?

01:00:06 - How they use dynamic position sizing

01:05:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan Feb 18, 2024

Show notes

Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?

07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy

08:33 - Industry performance update

11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?

17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks

36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance

44:42 - Is bigger always better?

52:43 - The importance of system diversification

01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters

01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market

01:09:41 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff Feb 14, 2024

Show notes

Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Kiril's work on 13D.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff

05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?

11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?

14:30 - Is China still investable?

17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis

18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective

23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?

25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?

27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy

29:55 - U.S vs. Europe vs. China

33:12 - How to position for the next 20 years

35:12 - Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?

39:13 - A move away from the dollar

44:50 - Understanding the gold market

49:05 - How will AI impact the economy?

51:30 - India - the next China?

53:34 - How will the decarbonization evolve?

55:38 - Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls

57:50 - Sokoloff's process for generation ideas

59:24 - Advice for other investors

02:02:03 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer Feb 11, 2024

Show notes

Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:53 - A dark time

04:24 - Industry performance update

10:57 - Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)

21:59 - What does it take to change investors minds?

33:26 - No one can erase 2022, and that is important

35:01 - A misleading narrative in the managed futures space

38:30 - Long or short term - who performed the best?

43:39 - Are stocks becoming less relevant?

53:22 - An update on the ETF space

56:25 - An existential crisis within equity hedge funds

58:55 - Capitalism and the political discourse

01:03:58 - Is democracy on its last legs?

01:06:32 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald Feb 07, 2024

Show notes

Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Frances on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald

06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?

13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?

20:43 - Where are the weak spots?

23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?

27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy

39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?

51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?

53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?

59:35 - Advice for the other investors

01:01:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski Feb 03, 2024

Show notes

Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?

02:27 - Industry performance update

06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat

12:14 - The drivers of price

17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period

22:48 - Managers have different personalities

29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?

32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis

39:32 - More markets = better returns?

44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms

49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?

54:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson Jan 31, 2024

Show notes

In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Amy on LinkedIn andRead her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Amy Edmondson

10:27 - The importance of psychological safety

15:04 - The different types of failure

18:25 - Why do we fear to fail?

22:54 - The idea of reframing

25:04 - Practicing reframing

27:06 - Has the way students work changed?

30:25 - The dark side of the performance mindset

32:40 - Integrating feedback the right way

36:16 - The Stop. Challenge. Choose Method

41:02 - The key aspect of failing well

44:48 - How can we cultivate intelligent failure?

50:35 - Conceptualizing excellence in a new way

53:33 - Encouraging openness while maintaining intellectual property

56:33 - A philosophical perspective

01:00:36 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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