This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

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E104: Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!; Telegram’s $30b valuation!; SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight; Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz? | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 15, 2024 Mar 15, 2024

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00:07 | Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!
- $1 trillion in 2023 total payment volume, +25% vs 2022
- Stripe 15yrs vs PayPal 23yrs to get to $1t
- Estimated $17b in 2023 revenue, positive cash flow
- $65b Feb 2024 tender, 3.8x revenue multiple is a steal
02:19 | Telegram’s $30b valuation!
- 900m monthly active users, +80% vs 2021; on track for 1b users by Dec 2024
- "hundreds of millions of dollars" from advertising and subscriptions revenue
- $30b valuation from investors
- Seeking IPO to maintain independence and drive company valuation
04:12 | SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight
- Starship is 400 feet tall, powered by 33 rockets
- 5x payload of current Falcon9 rocket with lower cost per launch; incremental revenue AND profit
- Starlink estimated to have a $103b valuation ($3.4b in annual recurring revenue?)
06:24 | Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz?
- Steven Mnuchin, former US Treasury Secretary, seeks to buy TikTok
- US government is reviewing a bill that would require ByteDance to divest TikTok US biz
- TikTok US has 170m users
- ByteDance 2023 revenue is $120b (+20% vs 2022) and a $268b valuation, only a 2.4x revenue multiple (LOW!)
- TikTok US has $16b of 2023 revenue, applying Meta revenue multiple (9.58x) it’s a $153b valuation business
- Massive valuation unlock position for TikTok US by getting out of the ByteDance negative overhang?
09:09 | Pre-IPO +3.28% for week, +3.23% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Chime +28.6%, eToro +21.9%, ScaleAI +20.5%, Ramp +12.3%, Flexport +7.2%
- Week losers: Consensys -9.8%, OpenAI -4.5%, ByteDance -3.1%, Rippling -2.1%, Chainalysis -1.7%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $276b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $103b, Stripe $68b, Databricks $49b

E103: Ripple's XRP up 20% last week, Buy Ripple the company or XRP (Ripple's crypto token)? X competing directly YouTube with new TV apps, X to be a distribution platform for independent content creators (news focus?), AI investor demand is stronger than Mar 15, 2024

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E102: IPOs return in 2024?, $1.5 trillion Starlink valuation, MStanley Wealth’s new pre-IPO stock trading desk, X debt restructuring, Monzo’s $5b valuation, Revolut+Consensys Metamask product, Apple kills Epic Games in EU, Webull $7.3b SPAC deal | Pre-IPO Mar 15, 2024

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00:10 | IPOs return in 2024?; Joshua Brown, Michael Batnick, CFA, + The Compound
- Nasdaq has to be performing well for IPOs to come and perform well
- the IPOs that are coming, e.g. Reddit, Inc., need to do well post-IPO if we want to see the flood gates open
Subscribe to Josh & Michael's The Compound….
- YouTube = https://lnkd.in/e3tnDAXc
- Podcast = https://lnkd.in/gN4eiaaE
02:54 | $1.5 trillion Starlink valuation
- Starlink has satellite internet monopoly
- 2.6 billion people (33% of global population) have no access to internet
- Starlink charges a monthly subscription fee of $50 to $110 per month
- 10% market share, or 260m subscribers, at $50/month is $156b in annual recurring revenue
- 10x revenue multiple that’s a $1.56 trillion valuation
06:02 | MStanley Wealth’s new pre-IPO stock trading desk
- MStanley Wealth clients can now purchase pre-IPO stocks
- 1,000 stocks available
- Congrats to MStanley … this is a great solution/business
- AG Dillon & Co offers this same service to indie RIAs/IBDs
- AG Dillon SpaceX Fund and AG Dillon OpenAI Fund accepting new investors now
07:34 | X debt restructuring
- MStanley and other lenders looking to restructure $12.5b in X debt
- Banks seek to derisk position, negotiations have not been successful
- X placed a $19b internal valuation on the business in Oct 2023 which is down from its $44b purchase price in late 2022
08:52 | Monzo Bank’s $5b valuation
- Alphabet, HongShan (Sequoia China), and Tencent invested $430m
- 88% yoy revenue increase, profitable for 2023
- 9.4 million UK customers
- Last round was in Jan 2022 at a $4.6b valuation
10:19 | Revolut + Consensys’ Metamask new product
- Revolut Ramp steamlines purchase of crypto in Metamask wallets
- 20 cryptocurrencies converted from fiat in Revolut bank accounts or via Visa/Mastercard payments
- Revolut has a $17.7b secondary market valuation, -46% from its last primary round in Jul 2021
- ConsenSys has a $7.7b secondary market valuation, +9.5% from its last primary round in Mar 2022
11:56 | Apple kills Epic Games in EU
- Apple revoked developer account for Epic Games Sweden AB
- Epic cannot reintroduce Fortnite to iOS in Europe
- Epic has a $22.5b secondary market valuation, +26% from last primary round in Feb 2024. Disney invested in that round.
13:30 | Webull Financial $7.3b SPAC deal to close in 2H 2024
14:35 | Pre-IPO +0.39% for week
- Week winners: Chainalysis 15.5%, Epic Games 9.8%, Consensys 6.6%, Brex 4.6%, Stripe 2.2%
- Week losers: Flexport -11.9%, Neuralink -6.3%, Anthropic -4.9%, Discord -2.5%, Airtable -1.4%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $284b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $108b, Stripe $66b, Databricks $49b

E101: Investment case for Klarna, Investment case for Deel, Clint's new book "The Smooth Ride Portfolio" | Clint Sorenson, Aaron Dillon ... Nick Fusco and Evan Cohen have the week off Mar 15, 2024

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E100: Stripe’s $65b valuation, Klarna’s $20b IPO?!, Klarna replaces 700 humans w/ OpenAI, Figure(robots) raise $675m from Bezos/others, Deel acquires Zavvy | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 1, 2024 Mar 01, 2024

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00:11 | Stripe’s $65b valuation
- Online payment infrastructure company
- $1b buyback/tender at a $65b valuation; Sequoia and Goldman participated alongside Stripe itself
- Stripe has $59.8b implied secondary market valuation prior to this announcement; $65b valuation is +8.7% increase
- Second private company buyback in last few months; ByteDance $5b buyback from employees in Dec 2023 at $268b valuation
02:00 | Klarna’s $20b IPO?!
- IPO rumored for 2025 at $20b
- Klarna has $8.3b implied secondary market valuation; $20b is a +141%
- 2023: $2.2b revenue (+22% vs ’22), $1.1b gross profit (+60% vs ’22), 50% gross profit margin, -32% in consumer credit losses vs ’22, -31% reduction in sales/marketing expenses vs ‘22
- $20b valuation is 9x revenue multiple, I can see it based on these performance results
04:20 | Klarna replaces 700 humans w/ OpenAI
- Klarna implemented customer service solution using OpenAI, replaced 700 humans customer service reps with AI
- $40m annual profit improvement resulting from AI customer service solution
- 2.3m chats, 66% of all customer service inquiries
- Matched human-level customer satisfaction
- Increased accuracy by 25%, reducing repeat inquiries
- Resolved customer issues in 2 mins vs humans at 11 mins
- Operational in 23 markets (35 languages)
06:26 | Figure(robots) raise $675m from Bezos/others
- Humanoid robots that can complete tasks traditionally done by humans
- Jeff Bezos, Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, others invested
- $2.6b valuation
- BMW is customer, robots for automotive manufacturing
07:50 | Deel acquires Zavvy
- HR management tech company helping businesses recruit and compliantly manage international employees
- Zavvy is a Munich-based AI "people development"; specializing in personalized career progression, training, and performance management tools
- Acquisition amount not disclosed
- Deel seeks to expand HR services, AI solutions
- Deel has 25,000 business customers; e.g. Reddit, Shopify, Klarna, Nike, and Red Bull
- Deel $400m in annual recurring revenue, profitable since Sep 2022, $600m in cash on balance sheet
- $13.2b implied valuation based on secondary market trading, +9% from last primary round in May 2022
09:29 | Pre-IPO +0.31% for week, +1.97% for last 1yr
- Week winners: ConsenSys +16.1%, OpenAI +6.7%, Anduril +6.2%, Flexport +4.7%, Chainalysis +4.0%
- Week losers: Scale.AI -19.4%, Airtable -14.7%, Klarna -1.8%, Anthropic -1.7%, SpaceX -1.5%
-Top valuations: ByteDance $283b, SpaceX $182b, OpenAI $109b, Stripe $65b, Databricks $48b

E99: Buy the Reddit IPO?, ScaleAI investment case, Anthropic $18b valuation w/ a ton of FTX 2ndaries Mar 01, 2024

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E98: Human controls computer with brain via Neuralink, Reddit sells data to AI shop for $60m/yr, China’s Moonshot AI raises $1b, Astera Labs’ IPO at $116m revenue + $4b valuation, SpaceX won $1.8b US military contract in 2021 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update Feb 23, 2024

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00:09 | Human controls computer with brain via Neuralink
- A robot surgically implanted the Nueralink chip into the human’s brain
- Human can control a computer mouse with just their brain
- $4.2b implied secondary market valuation, +21.2% from last primary round in Nov 2023
01:17 | Reddit sells data to AI shop for $60m/yr
- Filed S-1 for Mar 2024 IPO
- Licensing data for AI training is a new revenue stream
- $804m revenue, $91m net loss in 2023
- 75,000 most active Reddit users are invited to participate in the IPO
- Seeking $5.0b IPO; $5.8b secondary market valuation, -42% from $10b primary round in Aug 2021
03:20 | China’s Moonshot AI raises $1b
- Offers large language model like OpenAI’s ChatGPT to Chinese users
- OpenAI and other US based LLMs are not available in Mainland China
- Founded by renowned researcher Yang Zhilin
- Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaohongshu, HongShan (Sequoia Capital China) participated
04:11 | Astera Labs’ IPO at $116m revenue + $4b valuation
- Manufactures data center server components; Amazon and Microsoft are customers
- 45% increase in revenue 2023 vs 2022
- 2024 revenue projected at $250m to $300m
- IPO is targeted at $4b
05:16 | SpaceX won $1.8b US military contract in 2021
- US intelligence and military contract continue to be a major source of revenue for SpaceX
- Starshield, a military focused satellite internet solution, won a $70m contract in Aug 2023
- SpaceX hires military personnel; e.g. retired Air Force general Terrence O’Shaughnessy
- Jan 2024 tender locked a $180b valuation for SpaceX
06:41 | Pre-IPO +1.06% for week, +0.07% for last 1yr
- Week winners: eToro +24.01%, Rippling +20.27%, Epic Games +15.96%, OpenAI +7.15%, Neuralink +7.15%
- Week losers: Airtable -10.47%, Scale.AI -10.28%, ConsenSys -7.36%, Cohere -3.24%, Canva -3.18%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $284b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $102b, Stripe $60b, Databricks $49b lead in current valuation
Invest in pre-IPO stocks with AG Dillon Funds - www.agdillon.com

E97: $100b OpenAI valuation justified?, X becoming the everything app?, Will robotics solve the US housing crisis? Feb 20, 2024

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E96: OpenAI hits $2b in run rate revenue, launches Google Search competitor, launches Hollywood movie/tv killer; Canva CFO resigns ahead of IPO; X and MrBeast ad partnership, X locks sports betting deal with BetMGM; Musk’s SpaceX and Neuralink leave Delaw Feb 16, 2024

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00:10 | OpenAI hits $2b in run rate revenue
- $0 to $2b revenue in only 1 year
- Google 5 yrs to reach $1b in revenue, Meta 6 years
- 92% of Fortune 500 use OpenAI
- 100m weekly users
- 18,000 OpenAI customers through Microsoft Azure
- OpenAI currently raising a primary round at $100b valuation
01:16 | OpenAI launches Google Search competitor
- Search partnership with Microsoft Bing
- Goal is faster response times
- Perplexity AI also competing in AI search; $100m raise at $520m valuation
- Bing generates $18b in annual revenue, Google Search $150b
02:18 | OpenAI launches Hollywood movie/tv killer
- OpenAI Sora creates 60-second highly realistic videos from text prompts
- Potential to be massively disruptive to movie and tv industries
- Directors and storytellers will take center stage vs actors in the future?
03:34 | Canva CFO resigns ahead of IPO
- Damien Singh resigns
- IPO expected in 2025
- New CFO will have experience scaling companies
- Stripe, StubHub, Plaid all replaced CFOs recently and are also primed for an IPO
- $2b in revenue, profitable since 2017, 165m monthly users
- $1.5b tender offer in process at $26b valuation
04:29 | X and MrBeast ad partnership
- MrBeast video on X generated 156m impressions last week driving ad revenue
- X puts ads at beginning of video for selected creators, like MrBeast
- 80,000 users participating in new ad program
- X posted an internal valuation in Q4 2023 at $19b; a 57% decrease from Elon Musk’s purchase price
05:09 | X locks sports betting deal with BetMGM
- BetMGM is exclusive live odds sports betting partner for X
- X users can bet directly on X platform
- X aims to be the “everything app”, more than just social media
05:46 | Musk’s SpaceX and Neuralink leave Delaware
- SpaceX moved to Texax, Neuralink moved to Nevada
- Delaware court invalidated Musk’s $55.8b Tesla compensation package after independent board and individual shareholders voted to approve in 2018
06:47 | Pre-IPO -0.83% for week, +1.46% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Epic Games +8.68%, Anduril +0.95%, OpenAI +0.80%, Snyk +0.70%, Klarna +0.70%
- Week losers: Flexport -17.39%, Anthropic -7.75%, Hugging Face -3.50%, SpaceX -3.09%, ByteDance -2.25%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $283b, SpaceX $181b, OpenAI $95b, Stripe $59b, Databricks $49b lead in current valuation

E95: Epic Games' $1.5b from Disney, $7T Altman raise!, Mag7 dominates VC investing, Apple Vision Pro Feb 14, 2024

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