This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

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E125: Dislocation in the pre-IPO stock secondary markets vs primary markets, AI M&A activity ramping up, AI "sub" asset classes emerging, AI application/implementation layer paramount for AI ecosystem revenue Jun 04, 2024

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AI SHOPS SELLING
-Inflection AI sold to Microsoft and Stability AI, Humane looking to sell
-Inflection AI sold for $650m; investors get 10% to 50% return on investment
-Stability AI last published round in Oct 2022 at $1.0b; $5m Q1 2024 revenue, -$30m Q1 2024 net income, $100m in outstanding payables to cloud computing providers
-Humane looking for a $750m to $1b price tag
-Winners and losers are starting to shape up in the AI play?
-AI "asset classes" ; chips, cloud, data, models, application/implementation
PRIMARIES LOWER THAN SECONDARIES
-YES! Anduril targeting $12.5 valuation, secondaries at $13.2b
-YES! Groq targeting $3.0b valuation, secondaries at $4.4b (-32%)
-NO! Revolut targeting $33b valuation, secondaries at $21.6b
-NO! Scale AI closed $13.8b valuation, secondaries at $7.4b last week
-Super interesting price activity here in primaries vs secondaries

E124: OpenAI used by 93% of Fortune 500, PwC to sell ChatGPT; Grafana Labs $6b valuation; Klarna $22m Q1 profit; Databricks $1.6b in 2023 revenue; Epic Games $800m in Fortnite in-game economy; xAI $24b valuation, now 8th largest pre-IPO stock; CoreWeave I May 31, 2024

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E123: Revolut seeks $33b valuation, +53% vs secondary mrkt levels; Scale AI new $13.8b valuation, +97% from last round; Anduril new $12.5b valuation, -5.3% vs secondary mrkt levels; Groq new $3b valuation, -32% vs secondary mrkt levels May 24, 2024

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00:08 | Revolut new round
- UK online bank
- Launching new payment terminal in 2H 2024, expanding Europe availability for product
- Raising $500m tender at $33b valuation
- 40m customers, +144% from 2021
- $2.2b 2023 revenue, +100% vs 2022
- $21.6b secondary market valuation, - 35% from Jul 2021 round
- 9.8x revenue multiple at $21.6b secondary valuation
- 15x revenue multiple at target $33b valuation
- +53% return for secondary investors if $33b valuation plays out
02:06 | CoreWeave new debt financing
- AI-focused cloud provider
- $7.5b private debt financing
- Blackstone led; Carlyle Group, BlackRock participated
- $19b valuation from $1.1 equity round this month
- 14 to 28 data centers by Dec 2024
02:48 | Blue Origin resumes launches
- Bezos owned, space rocket company
- NS-25 mission successful
- Resumed crewed flights after 2yrs, 21 corrective actions
- 25th mission, 7th with humans … 37 total people to space
03:35 | Scale AI new round
- Data-labeling service provider for machine learning model training
- Raised $1b
- $13.8b valuation, +97% from 2021 round
- Accel led; Cisco, Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Tiger Global participated
- Clients; Microsoft, Toyota, GM, Meta, US DoD, OpenAI
- $7.4b secondary market valuation as of last week, some investors got a +86% pop
04:30 | Anthropic hires new CFO
- AI large language model company
- Hires Krishna Rao as CFO, formerly of Fanatics and Airbnb
- $18.1b secondary market valuation, +0.6% vs last round (Jan 2024)
05:17 | Anduril new round
- Military defense tech company
- Raising $1.5b
- Targeting $12.5b+ valuation, +25% from Dec 2023 round
- $500m in 2023 revenue, +100% vs 2022
- $670m in govt contracts, +50% vs 2022
- $12.5b primary round is -5.3% from current secondary market valuation levels, $13.2b
06:06 | DeepL new round
06:45 | OpenAI deals with News Corp, BBVA
- News Corp data deal; OpenAI to train on WSJ, MarketWatch, Barrons, NY Post data
- BBVA to use ChatGPT Enterprise solutions; 3,000 licenses to enhance productivity, innovation in business decisions and customer service
- BBVA is first European bank to partner with OpenAI
- $97b secondary market valuation, +12.8% from Apr 2024 round
08:06 | Humane looking for buyer
- AI personal device startup
- Seeking buyer at $750m to $1b
- Last round at $850m, 2023
08:34 | Groq new round
- AI chip startup
- $300m raise, MStanley as banker
- $3b valuation, +161% from Feb 2024 round
- Groq’s language processing units, LPUs, designed to generate LLM results faster with lower electricity use
- Monetization starts in Jun 2024
- $3b primary round is -32% from current secondary market valuation, $4.4b
09:30 | Pre-IPO +0.10% for week, +39.95% for last 1yr
- Up week: Cohere +7.5%, Klarna +3.8%, Wiz +2.1%, Anduril +1.6%, Revolut +1.5%
- Down week: Groq -10.3%, SpaceX -2.8%, Anthropic -0.9%, Airtable -0.4%, Neuralink -0.4%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $294b, SpaceX $186b, OpenAI $97b, Stripe $75b, Databricks $43b
10:12 | +0.42% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Epic Games +172%, Rippling +100%, Revolut +44%, Klarna +41%, Anduril +27%
- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the contributors and detractors for the week; winners = Klarna +3.8%, Anduril +1.6%, Revolut +1.5% and losers = SpaceX -2.8%, Anthropic -0.9%, Chime -0.3%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
…3.31 distributed paid in capital (DPI)
…2.01 residual value to paid in capital (RVPI)
…5.32 total value to paid in capital (TVPI)
…4.1 years to “return the fund”

E122: $625m for Reka AI founders/employees in <2yrs, $20b IPO for Klarna!, OpenAI GPT-4o’s multi-modal AI changed the game May 21, 2024

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00:16 | OpenAI GPT-4o’s multi-modal AI changed the game
- GPT-4o release last Monday; capable of handling text, speech, and video (multi-modal)
- Best use cases; real-time translation, tutoring, Mac app
- Mac app is game-changer, Google Workspace with AI is a game-changer
- What will the world look like in 5 years after multi-modal AI?
- $97b secondary market valuation, +13% vs last round (Apr 2024)
15:52 | $20b IPO for Klarna!, is it an AI play?
- $20b IPO could come as early as Q1 2025
- 150m global customers, 40m US customers
- UK based holding company established, sign IPO is coming
- $10b secondary market valuation, +49% vs last round (Jul 2022)
- Investors could make a quick 100% return if entering in the secondary and $20b IPO plays out
- Affirm (close competitor) has 4.9x price to sales ratio, Klarna’s 2023 revenue is $2.17b implying a $10b valuation
- Could an AI valuation multiple be used to value Klarna? Or … is Klarna an AI play?
23:27 | $625m for Reka AI founders/employees in <2yrs, go get that $$$!!!
- Reka AI builds useful multimodal AI models for businesses
- $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees
- Snowflake rumored to acquire Reka AI for $1.0b
- Reka AI investors; DST Global, Snowflake’s venture arm
- Reka AI founded in 2022, founders/employees still own 62.5% of company (my math) ... 22 people total
- $625m for Reka AI’s founders/employees if Snowflake deal goes through- current raise was $1b so I have to assume the current valuation is $4b+ post-money
- WE ARE ROOTING FOR REKA’S FOUNDERS AND EMPLOYEES! GET THIS DEAL DONE AND MAKE THAT MONEY!

E121: Figma $12.5b valuation tender; $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees; Klarna IPO rumored at +100% vs 2ndary mrkt; OpenAI impresses with GPT-4o; Reddit + OpenAI data deal; Anthropic hires new CPO, launches in Europe; Chime vs payday lenders; Star May 17, 2024

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Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | OpenAI impresses with GPT-4o
- Capable of handling text, speech, and video
- Refreshed ChatGPT UI and a macOS desktop app
- Verbal conversation improvement was the big surprise, in my opinion
- Watch live demos here = https://x.com/OpenAI
- $97b secondary market valuation, +13% vs last round (Apr 2024)
01:53 | Reddit + OpenAI data deal
- OpenAI to license Reddit data for training
- $ amount OpenAI pays Reddit not disclosed
- Follows OpenAI data deals with Dotdash Meredith, Financial Times
02:53 | Klarna IPO rumored at +100% vs 2ndary mrkt
- $20b IPO could come as early as Q1 2025
- 150m global customers, 40m US customers
- UK based holding company established, sign IPO is coming
- $10b secondary market valuation, +49% vs last round (Jul 2022)
- Investors could make a quick 100% return if entering in the secondary and $20b IPO plays out
03:55 | Anthropic hires new CPO, launches in Europe
- Mike Krieger is new chief product officer
- Krieger co-founded Instagram and sold to Facebook for $1.0b
- Anthropic also launched in Europe; full product suite
- $18.1b secondary market valuation, +0.6% vs last round (Jan 2024)
05:22 | Chime vs payday lenders
- cash advance of $500
- customer must have completed two payroll cycles
- $2 fee, 1-2 day wait to access advance
- 7m customers, profitable in Q1 2024
- $5.3b secondary market valuation, -79% vs last round (Sep 2021)
06:14 | $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees
- Snowflake rumored to acquire Reka AI for $1.0b
- Reka AI investors; DST Global, Snowflake’s venture arm
- Reka AI founded in 2022, founders/employees still own 62.5% of company (my math)
- $625m for Reka AI’s founders/employees if Snowflake deal goes through
07:14 | Starlink live in Indonesia, Carnival ships
- Starlink live in Indonesia on May 19; Starlink available in 75+ countries
- Starlink live on all 90 Carnival Cruises ships; $15 to $19 per person per day
- $192b secondary market valuation, +6.4% vs last round (Jan 2024)
08:41 | Rippling launches performance mgmt product
- New product to help employers monitor performance continuously and free up HR for complex tasks
- $14.9b secondary market valuation, +11% vs last round (Apr 2024)
09:54 | Figma $12.5b tender
- $600m to $900m deal size
- Current investors, including current and former employees, allowed to sell
- a16z, Sequoia, Kleiner Perkins to invest
- Adobe $20b deal blocked by European regulators, paid Figma $1b breakup fee
10:53 | Pre-IPO -0.67% for week, +30.73% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Rippling +5.9%, Chime +4.2%, Discord +4.1%, Bytedance +2.2%, Revolut +1.3%
- Week losers: Flexport -27.5%, Canva -6.6%, OpenAI -2.4%, Epic Games -2.0%, Anthropic -1.1%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $295b, SpaceX $192b, OpenAI $97b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $43b
11:39 | +0.26% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Epic Games +172%, Rippling +100%, Revolut +42%, Klarna +35%, Anduril +33%
- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; winners = Rippling +5.9%, Chime +4.2%, Discord +4.1% and losers = Tanium -10.9%, OpenAI -2.4%, Epic Games -2.0%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
…3.31 distributed paid in capital (DPI)
…2.05 residual value to paid in capital (RVPI)
…5.36 total value to paid in capital (TVPI)
…4.1 years to “return the fund”

E120: Wiz $12b valuation is a buy; Wayve $1b raise but not data play; Revolut $2b in 2023 revenue, $350m in net income May 14, 2024

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REVOLUT
- https://www.revolut.com/en-US/
- online banking
- 40 million customers, adding 1 million new customers a month
- Available in 150 countries, #1 finance downloaded app in 17 countries
- $2bn of revenue and $350m net income in 2023
- $21b secondary market valuation, -36% from last round ($33b) in Jul 2021
- 10.5x revenue multiple ... low for a profitable company adding 1m new customers a month?
WIZ
- https://www.wiz.io/
- NYC cloud security firm
- $12b post-money after $1b cap raise
- a16z, Lightspeed, Thrive invested
- $350m in 2023 annual recurring revenue
- 34x revenue multiple (HIGH!)
WAYVE
- https://wayve.ai/
- UK AI-autonomous driving technology company, licenses AI-tech to car manufactures
- raised $1b round, valuation not disclosed
- Softbank, D1, Nvidia, Microsoft investors
- Last published valuation was $1.35b in Jan 2022 Series B
- current raise was $1b so I have to assume the current valuation is $4b+ post-money

E119: Wiz $12b valuation, Wayve raises $1b, Chime fined by CFPB, Titkok sues US govt (obviously), OpenAI cuts another training data deal, FTX customers made whole! May 09, 2024

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00:08 | Wayve raises $1b
- UK AI-autonomous driving technology company, licenses AI-tech to car manufactures
- Softbank, D1, Nvidia, Microsoft investors
- Round valuation was not disclosed
- Last published valuation was $1.35b in Jan 2022 Series B
01:49 | Chime fined by CFPB
- online checking and savings accounts
- fined $3.25m for failing to refund customer funds on a timely basis
- growing pains, nothing to see here
- $5.1b secondary market valuation; -80% from Sep 2021 round
03:13 | Wiz $12b valuation
- NYC cloud security firm
- $12b post-money after $1b cap raise
- a16z, Lightspeed, Thrive invested
- $350m in 2023 annual recurring revenue
- 34x revenue multiple (HIGH!)
04:13 | Titkok sues US govt (obviously)
- challenging divest/ban law passed last month
- 170m US users
- $16b in TikTok US 2023 revenue
- estimated $152b valuation is Meta price-to-sales multiple applied
05:43 | OpenAI cuts another training data deal
- licensing partnership with Dotdash Meredith
- brands include People Magazine, Better Homes & Gardens, Investopedia
- OpenAI has data deals with FT, Axel Springer, Le Monde, Prisa, AP, StackOverflow
- $99.4b secondary market valuation, +16% from Jan 2024 last round
06:58 | FTX customers made whole!
- $11b owed to 2m customers
- $16.3b in total assets recovered
- customers and creditors made whole + interest, 118% of original value
08:43 | Pre-IPO +1.41% for week, +31.09% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Ramp +15.9%, Groq +12.1%, Notion +5.4%, Revolut +4.4%, Chainalysis +4.2%
- Week losers: Hugging Face -5.6%, Chime -2.9%, Bytedance -1.7%, Databricks -1.6%, Epic Games -0.9%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $288b, SpaceX $192b, OpenAI $99b, Stripe $75b, Databricks $43b
09:25 | +1.07% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index
- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Epic Games +177%, Rippling +89%, Revolut +40%, Klarna +36%, Anduril +34%
- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory.
- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week;
…winners = Rippling +3.2%, SpaceX +1.6%, Databricks +1.5% and
…losers = Automation Anywhere -20.9%, OpenAI -3.3%, Tanium -2.2%
- Rippling is in 2024 Vintage Index; 14% weight, +73% from index inception, +1.4% from last primary round
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
…3.31 distributed paid in capital
…2.06 residual value to paid in capital
…5.37 total value to paid in capital
…4.1 years to return the fund

E118: CoreWeave a buy at $19b, OpenAI data deals a biz moat?, X valuation multiple pop if it becomes the "everything app" May 08, 2024

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E117: CoreWeave’s $19b valuation, +171% in 5 months; X Payments approved in 25 or 50 states; OpenAI cuts data deal with Financial Times; Anthropic launches mobile app May 03, 2024

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00:07 | X Payments approved in 25 or 50 states
- X Payments functionality; pay a friend, pay a merchant, earn interest, shop, buy content
- X = YouTube, WhatsApp, Venmo, Amazon, NYT/CNN, Apple App Store … all in one app
- X needs “X Apps” to become everything app like WeChat in China
- $12.5b current valuation (Fidelity), -71% from Musk’s Oct 2022 $44b purchase price
02:42 | OpenAI cuts data deal with Financial Times
- OpenAI to use FT data to train models, users to access FT summaries, quotes, and links
- FT to use OpenAI for AI-focused journalism tools
- $98.7b secondary market valuation, +14.8% from Apr 2024 primary round
03:53 | CoreWeave’s $19b valuation, +171% in 5 months
- AI-focused cloud provider
- $1.1b raised at $19b post-money valuation
- +171% from last round in Dec 2023, just 5 months ago
- Use of proceeds = increase data center infrastructure, expand to Europe
- Coatue led w/ Altimeter, Nvidia, Fidelity participating
05:08 | Anthropic launches mobile app
- iPhone app for Claude chatbot
- new subscription plan; $30/month/user for increased chatbot usage + new collaboration tools
- $18.4b valuation, +2.3% from Jan 2024 primary round
06:14 | Pre-IPO +0.16% for week, +25.87% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Neuralink +4.5%, Ramp +4.4%, Rippling +3.2%, Chainalysis +3.2%, Groq +2.5%
- Week losers: ConsenSys -8.8%, OpenAI -3.3%, Anthropic -1.9%, Chime -1.2%, eToro -1.0%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $293b, SpaceX $189b, OpenAI $99b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $43b
06:58 | +0.17% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index
- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +73%, Stripe +58%, Klarna +34%, Revolut +34%, Anduril +30%
- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory.
- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week;
…winners = Rippling +3.2%, SpaceX +1.6%, Databricks +1.5% and
…losers = Automation Anywhere -20.9%, OpenAI -3.3%, Tanium -2.2%
- Rippling is in 2024 Vintage Index; 14% weight, +73% from index inception, +1.4% from last primary round

E116: Tiktok US to have a $152b valuation, xAI raising $6b at $18b valuation, X/Twitter to launch TV app, Flexport wins Shein business, Stripe tech to accept stablecoin payments, Anduril wins another govt contract (unmanned jets) Apr 26, 2024

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00:08 | Flexport wins Shein business
- Flexport wins Shein US shipping business with deep tech integration
- Shein to expand products outside of fashion and manufacturing from India/Latin America
- Flexport has $1.5b secondary market valuation, -81% from last primary round in Mar 2022
- Shein has $45b-$55b secondary market valuation, May 2023 primary round at $66b
01:29 | X/Twitter to launch TV app
- X TV App on all smart TV platforms
- X seeks to directly compete against YouTube
- Half of YouTube views are on its TV app and YouTube’s TV app has more viewership vs Netflix
- Fidelity, a X shareholder, has a $12.5b valuation for the company, -72% vs Musk’s Apr 2022 purchase price
02:55 | Tiktok US to have a $152b valuation
- US govt has passed a law requiring ByteDance to divest Tiktok US business in 1 year or less
- TikTok US has 170 million users
- AG Dillon believes TikTok US could have a valuation up to $152b if sold “as is”
- A $152b valuation places TikTok US as the 3rd largest pre-IPO stock globally
05:24 | xAI raising $6b at $18b valuation
- xAI is Elon Musk’s AI large language model business sourcing data from X/Twitter
- Sequoia leading $6b round
- Musk has already invested nearly $1b into xAI
06:19 | Stripe tech to accept stablecoin payments
- Online merchants using Stripe payment solutions will be able to accept payment in stablecoin cryptocurrencies
- Solana, Ethereum, and Polygon platforms will be initially accepted
- Stripe has a $74.1b secondary market valuation, +14% vs its Feb 2024 primary round
07:43 | Anduril wins another govt contract (unmanned jets)
- Anduril to develop and test unmanned fighter jets
- Potential to win multi-billion-dollar production contract in 2026
- US military aims to have a fleet of 1000 unmanned fighter jets
- Anduril has a $13.0b secondary market valuation, +53% vs its Dec 2022 primary round
08:42 | Pre-IPO +1.31% for week, +24.96% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Chime +17.2%, Ramp +3.5%, Stripe +1.5%, Chainalysis +1.2%, Bytedance +1.1%
- Week losers: OpenAI -2.7%, Anthropic -1.9%, Groq -1.5%, Flexport -0.9%, Revolut -0.7%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $289b, SpaceX $185b, OpenAI $100b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $42b
09:25 | +1.92% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index
- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Stripe +56%, Rippling +50%, Klarna +32%, Revolut +28%
- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: None. All 10 constituents are in positive territory.
- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week;
…winners = Chime +17.2%, Automation Anywhere +1.8%, Stripe 1.5% and
…losers = OpenAI -2.7%, Anthropic -1.9%, Revolut -0.7%
- Chime is in the 2021, 2022, and 2023 Vintage Indexes; 3% to 4% weight in these indexes so not a material impact to overall TVPI for indexes

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