The Macro Trading Floor

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Two Trades To Navigate This Regime Shift Jun 26, 2022

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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week before offering up their very own trade idea for manoeuvring this environment. With all eyes on the Bank of Japan as they fiercely defend their yield curve control, many investors are worried about something breaking in Japan. Alfonso highlights that "the only entity that can break something in Japan, is Japan itself". Just how will Kuroda and the BoJ be forced react to a weakening Yen, surging yields and increasing pressure from the bond vigilantes. To find out, you'll just have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Jerome Powell Takes a Pounding: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-takes-a-pounding-11655936900 The Bank of Japan will not be bullied: https://www.ft.com/content/cc054493-8339-4c53-a60c-a413b05404f9 The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-june-2022/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Top Stories Of The Week (07:33) Bank Of Japan Will Not Be Bullied (12:06) Feature Interview With Andreas (12:38) What The Heck Is Going On With The BoJ? (20:31) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea (27:36) Feature Interview With Alfonso (30:48) Heading For An Earnings Recession (37:13) Alfonso's Actionable Trade Idea (42:27) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Frances Donald: The Yield Curve Signals A Huge Warning Jun 19, 2022

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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Frances Donald Global Chief Economist & Strategist at Manulife Investment Management. Walking through the most important macro factor right now, inflation, Frances shares how every central bankers worst nightmare is manifesting itself in markets. Sharing her outlook on inflation and the bond market, Frances sees a scenario where the flattening yield curve will lead to another inversion across 2's 10's & 5's 30's. Could a new regime of secular stagflation be upon us? Frances then shares her actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Frances: https://twitter.com/francesdonald Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927 ECB to design new bond-buying plan to tackle market turmoil: https://www.ft.com/content/c519e5d5-f4c3-4554-9484-ddca75cf9bf3?sharetype=gift Stop Fooling Around, J-Pow: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Top Stories Of The Week (07:41) Take Of The Week (14:33) Feature Interview With Frances Donald (16:03) FOMC Meeting (22:38) Inflation (27:21) The Neutral Rate (30:55) The Yield Curve (35:59) Frances' Actionable Trade Idea (39:27) Quantitative Tightening (42:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

We Are Headed For A Deep Recession | Jesse Felder Jun 12, 2022

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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report. Felder argues that a strong dollar, severe interest rate spikes, and surging commodity prices indicate that a deep earnings recession is on the horizon. Felder explains why he thinks a Fed pivot is likely and fleshes out his macro thesis on stocks, bonds, and precious metals. For details of Jesse’s actionable trade idea, you will have to listen in! -- Follow Jesse: https://twitter.com/jessefelder Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Top Stories Of The Week (11:11) Feature Interview with Jesse Felder (16:44) Is Inflation Here To Stay? (19:16) What Will The Fed Ultimately Do? (22:03) Political Pressures on Central Banks (27:21) Jesse's Actionable Trade Idea (39:57) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Givanovic: This is How You Kill Inflation Jun 05, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Nick Givanovic. Nick provides a wealth of knowledge having spent over 40 year in the investment industry. From 1983 - 1993, Nick ran the largest bond book in the world, and has worked at some of the largest firms in the world including JP Morgan and Salomon. Nick joins the show to focus on the elephant in the room, inflation. Quoting Milton Friedman: "Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon", Nick provides a deep dive into why he believes inflation could remain persistent in this environment. He goes on to discuss the bond market mispricing, inflation expectations and how earnings repricing could drag equity markets lower. Finally, Nick shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/NickGiva Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Euro-Zone Inflation Hits Record as ECB Mulls How Quickly to Hike: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/euro-area-inflation-hits-record-as-ecb-mulls-how-quickly-to-hike#xj4y7vzkg Fed's Bostic calls for caution as Fed raises rates: 'Even firetrucks with sirens blaring slow down at intersections': https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-cant-be-reckless-in-the-way-it-pushes-up-interest-rates-bostic-says-11653410349?mod=article_inline Transcript: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the WSJ Future of Everything Festival: https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-fed-chairman-jerome-powell-at-the-wsj-future-of-everything-festival-11652821738 German retail sales drop in April as food prices bite: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-retail-sales-drop-more-than-expected-april-2022-06-01/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) Top Stories Of The Week (13:11) Feature Interview With Nick Givanovic (15:03) Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon (25:16) Inflation Expectations (29:38) Earnings Recpricing Will Drag The S&P Lower (36:14) Nick's Actionable Trade Idea (45:52) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Darius Dale: The Most Hated 20% Rally Ahead of Us May 29, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Darius Dale Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. After correctly forecasting a slowdown in economic growth, an end to the reflation trade & pricing in a bear market throughout 2022, Darius joins Alf and Andreas to share his macro thesis for the second half of the year. Is the market beginning to price in an earnings recession? Are investors signalling a rotation into bonds after one of the worst start to the year since 1788? Darius provides a masterclass in the macro fundamentals driving markets before sharing his actionable trade idea but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Darius: https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: In Fed's inflation fight, Bostic wants to avoid 'recklessness': https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-amps-up-inflation-fight-one-policymaker-urges-caution-2022-05-24/ Cathie Wood calls for 30 - 50% GDP growth from A.I https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1528179451070230530 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee May 3-4, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220504.pdf Apple raises pay as inflation climbs and labour competitiveness grows: https://www.ft.com/content/a9190b53-9f85-4362-ae95-1cf42473fdd3 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Top Stories of The Week (09:04) Fun Take of The Week (12:26) Feature Interview With Darius Dale (14:40) Have We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:31) Slowing Growth Throughout 2022 (25:47) China Is In Recession (28:36) Effect of Quantitative Tightening On Markets (35:23) Darius's Actionable Trade Idea (44:14) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in Equities May 22, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard. Drawing parallels between today and the 1970's, Dario walks us through his macro framework as global economies face inflation, recession & structural demographic issues. As China experiences continued lockdowns, Europe struggles with it's worst cost of living crisis since the 1940's and the U.S undertakes its rapid tightening of financial conditions, Dario predicts a very ugly outlook over the next 3-6 months. How will this macro environment influence Dario's actionable trade idea, to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Dario: https://twitter.com/darioperkins Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Dario's Blog: https://blogs.tslombard.com/author/dario-perkins Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-powell-to-take-wsj-questions-on-inflation-and-economic-outlook-11652779802 Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-polar-stars?s=r#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Top Stories Of The Week (11:12) Feature Interview With Dario Perkins (19:01) Central Bank Reaction Function (23:43) Real Interest Rates (26:27) The Effect Of Demographics On Growth (31:49) Dario's Actionable Trade Idea (38:46) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (46:13) Previous Trade Reviews -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This Will Blow Up, And This Will Be Your Safe Haven May 15, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by a very special guest to discuss the top stories of the week. After a week in markets few will forget, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the dilemma central banks around the world face as they embark on tightening financial conditions in the face of soaring inflation. After our guest walks us through their macro framework, they share their actionable trade idea. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Top Stories of The Week (13:47) Full Length Feature Interview (14:30) Are The ECB Trapped? (18:43) Inflation In Europe (30:32) Actionable Trade Idea (43:07) Effect of a Rising Dollar (45:45) What Is Behind The Dollar's Rise? (53:10) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Saxo Bank CIO: Gold to $2500 | Steen Jakobsen May 08, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Saxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen. With 30+ years investing through some of the most volatile periods in market history, Steen compares previous market cycles to today's stating, "November last year was the single biggest event in my life". As the Fed begins its most aggressive market tightening cycle in recent history, Steen expects a paradigm shift in investor preference towards commodities over financial assets. After walking us through his macro framework, Steen shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Steen: https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Rocky ride ahead for Norway's $1.2 trillion wealth fund. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-ceo-warns-rocky-ride-ahead-2022-05-03/ Treasury Cuts Quarterly Debt Sale, May Do So Again Even With Fed QT. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/u-s-cuts-quarterly-debt-sale-may-do-so-again-even-with-fed-qt WTO successfully concludes negotiations on China's entry. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres01_e/pr243_e.htm -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) Top Stories of The Week (10:56) Feature Interview With Steen Jakobsen (18:03) Is The Cure For High Prices, High Prices? (20:48) Lack of Energy CapEx (23:25) Energy Demand Destruction (28:25) The Fed's Terminal Rate (31:20) Steen's Actionable Trade Idea (38:21) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike Green: The Fed's Already Breaking Markets May 01, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Mike shares his outlook for early signs of risks emerging in the economy and how those risks could impact markets throughout 2022. Drawing comparisons between the 2022 tech sell-off and the 2000 dot-com crash, Mike explains how the Fed is going to break markets. After walking us through his macro framework, Mike shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Elon Musk just took out one of the biggest personal margin loans ever for his bid to buy out Twitter. Here's why Wall Street banks lined up to back the risky move. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-margin-loan-twitter-takeover-morgan-stanley-2022-4?r=US&IR=T Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/03/global-supply-chain-pressure-index-march-2022-update/ The Fed will plunge the US into a major recession by hiking rates above 5%, Deutsche Bank predicts. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-recession-warning-federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation-deutsche-bank-2022-4 European Leaders Blast the Cutoff of Russian Gas to Poland and Bulgaria as 'Blackmail': https://time.com/6171594/russia-gas-nato-poland-bulgaria/ Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics? http://ssingh.ucdavis.edu/uploads/1/2/3/2/123250431/pandemics_jst_restat_final_feb2021_main.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Top Stories of The Week (10:14) Worst Take of The Week (15:49) Feature Interview with Mike Green (24:33) Fed Balance Sheet Reduction (28:56) The Neutral Rate & Fed Rate Hikes (35:55) Will The Green Transition Be Inflationary? (37:20) Have We Hit Peak Inflation? (41:13) Mike's Actionable Trade Idea (49:26) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Lyn Alden: A Pendulum Between Stagflation & Reflation Apr 24, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Walking Alfonso and Andreas through her macro framework, Lyn explains the past two years of unorthodox monetary and fiscal policies. Drawing on the 1940s as an indicator, she correctly predicted the high inflation rates we’re currently seeing far ahead of most. Expecting a pendulum-style shift between reflation and stagflation, Lyn shares her actionable investment idea while giving a clear outlook for today’s macro landscape — you can't afford to miss this episode! -- Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Referenced In The Show: ARK's Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Worst Take of The Week (06:20) Market Outlook (15:35) Feature Interview With Lyn Alden (18:18) How Fiscal Handouts Caused Inflation (20:40) Weakening Demand Throughout 2022 (22:35) Weak Growth Over The Next Decade (26:45) Will Fed Tightening Spell Danger For Markets (29:40) Lyn's Actionable Trade Idea (41:05) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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