The Macro Trading Floor

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Ben Melkman: Expecting A U.S Dollar Decline Sep 04, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder & CIO of Light Sky Macro. Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest opportunities he sees today in markets before sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Stenos Signals #13 - No, Germany is probably not running out of gas: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-13-no-germany-is-probably UK's Liz Truss will probe extent of Bank of England independence, supporter says: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-liz-truss-will-probe-extent-bank-england-independence-supporter-says-2022-08-04/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Natural Gas In Europe (03:40) Inflation In Europe (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (10:55) Feature Interview: Ben Melkman (11:31) A Secular Shift For Inflation (21:00) Jerome Powell's Comments At Jackson Hole (28:49) Will The Fed Accept Above 2% Inflation? (31:09) The U.S Dollar (37:41) Ben's Actionable Trade Idea (47:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This Is What The Fed Will Do | David Woo Aug 28, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome David Woo CEO of David Woo Unbound to the show. Recording ahead of Jackson Hole, David shares his outlook on a US recession, Fed policy vs economic growth, whether or not the Fed will be able to slay the inflation dragon and the importance of understanding politics as well as economics in this market regime. Finally, David shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- “This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs and gain access to a wide range of government and corporate bonds. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/davidwoounbound Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Bridgewater Doubles Short Wagers in Europe to $10.5 Billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/bridgewater-doubles-bet-against-european-stocks-to-10-5-billion Biden Unveils Plan to Free Students from ‘Unsustainable Debt https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/biden-set-to-freeze-student-loan-repayments-for-four-more-months Kansas City Fed's George on rate hikes: 'We have more work to do' https://uk.news.yahoo.com/kansas-city-feds-george-rate-133641402.html -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Is Europe's Energy Crisis As Bad As Reported? (01:00) Top Stories Of The Week (07:43) Biden Unveils Plan to Cancel Student Debt (12:35) Feature Interview With David Woo (17:20) Fed Policy vs Economic Growth (21:55) The Path Ahead For Midterms (26:55) Can The Fed Slay The Inflation Dragon? (29:42) Quantitative Tightening (35:05) David's Actionable Trade Idea (44:26) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Disinflationary Trend Is Over | Whitney Baker Aug 21, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Whitney Baker CEO of Totem Macro to the show. With a background at some of the largest funds in the world, including Bridgewater, Whitney provides an expert view into the secular shift happening in markets today. Arguing that liquidity & globalization were two of the most important trends of the past 20 years, what will a secular reversal in both mean for markets going forward? To find out & hear Whitneys actionable trade idea, you'll just have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at: https://www.home.saxo/products/forex?cmpid=affi_cm_28261487_342027945_0 -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io -- Follow Whitney: https://twitter.com/TotemMacro Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 26-27, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220817a.htm Recognizing China: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1971-10-01/recognizing-china The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era: https://english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3b8702154b34bbf1d451b99bf64a/c.html What China's Taiwan white paper is saying: https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/what-chinas-taiwan-white-paper-is-saying/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) FOMC Minutes (06:09) Inflation In Europe & The U.K (10:00) Feature Interview With Whitney Baker (14:38) A Reverse In Liquidity & Globalization (21:39) Equity & Energy Markets (28:12) Whitney's Actionable Trade Idea (41:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (44:50) The End Of Globalization? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Are You Paying Attention to Emerging Markets? | Nick Stadtmiller Aug 14, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nick Stadtmiller Director of Emerging Markets Strategy at Medley Advisors. With an expertise in emerging markets, Nick joins the show for a discussion on the macro forces driving EM's. From global inflation rates to the rising U.S Dollar's effect on EM currencies, Nick provides a region by region walkthrough of all the strongest and weakest emerging market's you can't afford to not pay attention too. Finally, Nick shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at: https://www.home.saxo/products/forex?cmpid=affi_cm_28261487_342027945_0 -- DAS: Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/NickStadtmiller Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:01) Breaking Down The CPI Report (08:46) The Liquidty Cycle (10:15) DAS NY (12:51) Feature Interview with Nick Stadtmiller (14:35) Market Reaction To Lower Inflation (18:05) The U.S Dollar (22:18) What Is Happening In Emerging Markets? (28:40) China (38:00) Nick's Actionable Trade Idea (43:25) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Fed Will Break Inflation's Back, No Matter What | Teddy Vallee Aug 07, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Teddy Vallee, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Pervalle Global. After positioning to be short everything in the first half of 2022, Teddy now sees an environment where inflation will begin to roll over. With typical growth indicators slowing down such as commodities, Teddy sees an attractive risk/reward in the bond market. Teddy then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io -- Referenced In The Show: BOE Raises Rates by Most Since 1995, Warns of Long Recession: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/boe-raises-rates-by-most-since-1995-warns-of-long-recession Sweeping Mortgage Boycott Changes the Face of Dissent in China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-03/china-real-estate-market-crisis-protests-may-spur-multi-billion-dollar-rescue -- Follow Teddy: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Top Stories Of The Week (10:13) DAS (11:33) Feature Interview with Teddy Vallee (16:12) Why Is Inflation Heading Lower? (21:20) Will Powell Pivot? (23:34) Market reaction To Powell's Comments (28:42) The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (31:02) Outlook For The U.S Dollar (34:11) What Is Happening In The Bond Market? (36:49) Teddy's Actionable Trade Idea (40:51) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Shorting The Nasdaq With Butterfly Spreads | Dean Curnutt Jul 31, 2022

Show notes

Dean is looking at shorting the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) by using a "butterfly" spread. He wants to fade a Fed pivot (he wants to bet against the consensus that the Fed will reverse course and loosen policy) by shorting duration-sensitive equities such as those in the Nasdaq. -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Dean: https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Understanding The Fed's Meeting (06:27) Top Stories Of The Week (10:28) DAS NYC (12:14) Feature Interview with Dean Curnutt (17:20) Demand Destruction (22:50) Why Is Implied Volatility So Low? (36:14) The Macro Trade: The NASDAQ Butterfly (41:51) What If The Trade Is Wrong? (51:12) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Diego Parrilla: China Is Running Out Of Options Jul 24, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome best selling author and investment manager at Quadriga Asset Management Diego Parrilla to the show for a discussion on China. Diego makes the point that China's growth over the past 20 years is no longer sustainable as they battle high debt levels, demographic collapse & now social upheaval as citizens boycott mortgage payments. Diego goes on to discuss recent FX moves in USD, CNY & HKD before centering his actionable trade idea around a single currency pair, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS: Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Diego: https://twitter.com/ParrillaDiego Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: China's Mortgage Boycotts Are a Problem for Xi: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-07-20/china-s-mortgage-boycotts-are-a-problem-for-xi?sref=1STrqapn -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) The ECB Meeting (08:02) DAS New York Conference (11:32) Feature Interview With Diego Parrilla (13:35) The Chinese Economy (16:33) China's Mortgage Boycotts (22:53) Currency Wars (26:02) Chinese Demographics (31:01) Is The Hong Kong Dollar Peg At Risk? (34:40) Diego's Actionable Trade Idea (49:50) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marko Papic: Game Over For The Oil Bulls Jul 17, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Marko Papic Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. With such a massive bull run in energy, particularly Oil since the March 2020 lows, is the bull run sustainable? With a geopolitical premium priced into energy markets since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are oil and gas markets set to take another leg higher, or retrace 2021 & 2022 gains like the past couple of months? Marko walks through all of the factors at play and also shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Marko: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Nord Stream nightmare: Has Putin stopped Europe's gas for good? https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-energy-gas-crunch-nord-stream-shutoff-ukraine-war/ Heathrow tells airlines to stop selling tickets for flights this summer https://www.ft.com/content/9e76ca20-406f-46a8-8cec-d7627ea38f91 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Top Stories Of The Week (11:17) Feature Interview With Marko Papic (16:35) Has Putin Stopped Europe's Gas For Good? (21:47) Can Europe Handle The Energy Shortage? (25:40) Chinese Oil Demand (33:14) What Could Go Wrong With Marko's Trade Idea? (35:11) Biden Heads To Saudi Arabia (37:16) Final Thoughts (40:56) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Trade For The U.S Dollar's Reversal | Julian Brigden Jul 10, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners. Making the statement that "macro is back with a vengeance", Julian joins the show for a wide ranging discussion on inflation, misconceptions in the yield curve inversion, the factors driving an equity bear market and the U.S Dollar's structural decline. Expecting a structural rise in yields, Julian takes us back 800 years quoting a research piece by the BoE that identified all major trend reversals in bond bull markets being caused by either a pandemic or war. Just how will this new regime shift Julian expects effect his actionable trade idea? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: So, Recession?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/recession#details Summary of Economic Projections: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf Lagarde plays down recession risks, says ECB is ready to 'move faster' on rates if needed. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/ecb-lagarde-plays-down-recession-risks-at-sintra-forum.html The current bond bull market is the longest in more than 500 years https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-paper-on-bond-bull-markets-through-the-years-2017-10?op=1&r=US&IR=T Bretton Woods III: https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Top Stories Of The Week (06:53) Can the Fed pivot? (13:59) Feature Interview With Julian Brigden (23:59) The Labor Market (29:03) Will the Fed turn dovish? (34:44) The U.S. Dollar vs Equities (39:24) Julian's Actionable Trade Idea (46:01) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (51:29) The Role of the US Dollar -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Russell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher Inflation Jul 03, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley, Host of the "Forward Guidance" Podcast as Alfonso is away on holiday. They discuss the top stories of the week including the recent sell-off in commodities, policy errors by the ECB and a recent interview with Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey & Christine Lagarde. Andreas then welcomes Russell Clark, Former hedge fund manager of Russell Clark Investment Management for a discussion on the most important factor in markets right now, inflation. Expecting to see a switch from capital back to labor, structurally higher bond yields, higher inflation and elevated commodity prices, just what will this mean for markets? Russell then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Russell: https://twitter.com/rampagingruss Follow Jack Farley: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Central bankers warn of end to low inflation era: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2022/latest-30062022.html Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7wE5m3TAY61LpZNBUc1x2u?si=b79c323837f1431e Frances Donald: The Yield Curve Signals A Huge Warning: https://open.spotify.com/episode/36aWSiLz2tt45URVIOULTd?si=83c74291c04e40d9 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Top Stories Of The Week (08:09) Falling Commodity Prices (12:14) Feature Interview With Russell Clark (15:32) A Regime Shift in Inflation (25:13) A Regime Shift in Currencies (28:25) The U.S Dollar (34:52) Russell's Actionable Trade Idea (40:57) The BoJ & Yield Curve Control (44:53) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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