Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#382 Chris Whalen: Private Credit's "Slow Motion Train Wreck" & The Warning Signs for a 2028 Housing Reset Jun 27, 2026

Show notes

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861

Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860

Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shop

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

00:00 — Intro

01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions

02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz

04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax

05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans

06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights

07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans

08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage

11:55 — The private credit gates connection

12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines

14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults

15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained

15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast)

17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips

17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit

18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility

19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation

20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 57

22:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case

23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling

24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures)

25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take

26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation

28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over?

29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred

31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk)

32:46 — Wrap-up

#381 Peter Grandich: Why the U.S. Stock Market's Biggest Tailwind Is About to Reverse Jun 25, 2026

Show notes

Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth.

Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

https://x.com/PeterGrandich

https://petergrandich.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Timestamps:

00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich

01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck"

06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide

10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different

12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement"

13:11 — Taxes

17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading

20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy

22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead?

25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture

28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails

30:40 — Gold

32:00 — Spend less than you make

33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market

34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk

38:38 — The craps table metaphor

41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"

#380 Peter Schiff: End Game Coming, Bubble Popping, $2 Trillion Interest by Next Year Jun 23, 2026

Show notes

Peter Schiff warns the bubble is popping as crypto leads the decline, while the bond market faces another breakdown with the 10-year potentially breaking above 5%. He emphasizes inflation is a choice—all Fed chairs chose it, and Warsh will too despite tough talk, because the alternative is politically unacceptable. He reveals the May deficit surged 30% while interest expense jumped 44%, with annual interest payments now hitting $1.6 trillion and will be $2 trillion by next year. Schiff identifies Japan as a looming harbinger with 250% debt-to-GDP, yields climbing above 4%, and the yen collapsing below 160 with potential for another 30-50% decline. His end game thesis: the US dollar loses reserve currency status, US assets get repriced down, and he's positioning to "have all the chips" at the finish line. Gold's pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move, while silver at $65 is headed to $200 and Bitcoin at $64,000 should be sold. GDP growth is an illusion created by faulty deflators that understate inflation; the economy hasn't really expanded, just become more expensive, and stagflationary depression is locked in.

Thank you to our sponsors:
Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:https://x.com/PeterSchiff https://www.youtube.com/@peterschiff

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff

00:50 Air coming out of bubble

1:16 Markets too complacent on inflation risks

1:45 Warsh has a problem - Hike or no hike, both bad

3:36 Inflation is a choice - All Fed chairs chose it

5:11 Warsh will choose inflation despite tough talk

5:24 Bond market breakdown coming - 10-year to 5%, 30-year to 5.5-6%

7:42 May deficit up 30%, interest expense up 44%

8:13 Interest payments $1.6 trillion/year, will be $2 trillion next year

9:39 Government spending up 50% since COVID, taxes reduced

10:57 Inflation is hidden tax - Government prefers it

11:52 Iran war costs through inflation, not direct taxation

13:49 Wealth tax - Slippery slope, will hit middle class eventually

19:56 Japan crisis - Debt to GDP 250%, yen collapsing below 160

20:29 Japanese bond yields at 4% on 30-year, rising fast

21:45 Japan could sell $1 trillion in US treasuries

24:41 Japan harbinger for US crisis

24:54 Treasury Secretary Paulson says crisis inevitable

27:18 Gold warning sign - Pullback to $4,200 from $5,600 normal

29:24 Silver at $65, headed to $200

32:39 Stock market at highs but economy worse than Biden

36:56 GDP illusion - Deflator too low, just prices not growth

39:48 End game - Dollar won't be reserve currency

40:40 Playing for end game, wants all chips at finish

43:31 Contrarian predictions - Higher rates, higher oil, higher gold

44:30 Japan crisis first domino, then dollar next

45:01 Summary - Stagflation and end game thesis

#379 Chris Whalen: The Bond Market Already Hiked, Why Double-Digit Inflation Is Still Ahead, And Kevin Warsh Sets New Tone at Fed Jun 20, 2026

Show notes

Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots

3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much

5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike

6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control

7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed

9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate

10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels

11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX

12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play

13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin

15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions

17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand

17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally

19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues

21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple

22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation

23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them

24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees

26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults

29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets

30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying

31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question

32:07 Next week

#378 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Gets 9/10, Finally "Fed Up Too," Removes Dot Plot Jun 18, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda.

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10.⁠ http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth

1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too"

2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell"

3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution"

5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks

7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary

14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero

16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff

17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8%

19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 2025

24:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history"

26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak

27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic

29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal

30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors

#377 Ted Oakley: We're Toward The End, Late Stage Market, Lemmings Everywhere Jun 16, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:

0:00 Opening and introduction

1:23 Market assessment

2:40 IPOs

3:49 Late stage market indicators

7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30%

8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure

8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing

11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market

12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings

18:54 Energy thesis

21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries

28:30 Bifurcated economy

29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested

32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time

37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in

39:53 Private credit issue

42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table

44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles

#376 Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead Jun 06, 2026

Show notes

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value.

Monetary-Metals.com/julia

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome

01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed

4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms

5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization

7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced

10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks

11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron

13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing

14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets

17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback

20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done

21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies

22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse

23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst

25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI

26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI

27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood

28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week

#375 Howell: Liquidity Slowing, Speculation Phase Ending, Why A Fed Hike Might Be Coming Jun 02, 2026

Show notes

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel.

Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

0:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy

1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations

6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical

7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy

13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions

15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out

16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics

19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing

24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks

30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair

32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary

35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year

37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold

40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel

40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months

43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack

#374 Chris Whalen: Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike Coming Anyway, Private Credit Defaults at 6% May 30, 2026

Show notes

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals bank incomes are up but the real story is the trading side of the house driving earnings, not lending, as deposits grow faster than assets forcing banks into trading operations. He warns private credit default rates have hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times worse than bank default rates, signaling the end of the credit cycle as non-banks now lead lending. Whalen predicts double-digit inflation remains likely, expects QE5 to come despite Warsh's denials since the Fed balance sheet must grow proportionally with federal debt, and argues Fed policy is losing efficacy against external war-driven inflation that raising rates won't fix. He discusses massive housing consolidation and M&A deals coming as mortgage lenders face crushing higher rates, details how private equity is rolling up every service provider imaginable (plumbers, electricians, dentists, oncologists) and "screwing them up terribly," warns TIPS aren't reflecting true inflation, and predicts major housing lender mergers between now and year end. Whalen maintains his thesis that the Fed doesn't control long-term rates and that shrinking the balance sheet would be more effective than raising the Fed funds rate, argues the AI momentum trade is crowded and silly, and expects no action from the Fed in June but potential rate hike language removal from statements.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction - Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways

01:00 Banks recap

5:06 Private credit default rate record 6% - 10x worse than banks

6:14 Who's most exposed to private credit losses?

7:36 Reversal in low rate environment impact

9:39 Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet strategy

10:01 Double-digit inflation still likely?

10:40 What were worst impacts of QE?

11:00 Housing was the headline impact of QE

12:43 Fed housing subsidy went outside their mandate

12:51 Fed is progressive institution out of control

13:49 We may be closer to QE5 than Bessent knows

15:05 Fed balance sheet must grow with federal debt

16:04 New leadership - what about Fed funds rate?

16:18 Potential for cut or hike?

18:06 Base case still stagflation?

20:12 Private equity excess cash looking for yield

22:10 Politics of housing affordability daunting

23:35 Viewer questions - TIPS

24:26 Municipal bond default risk

26:24 Why higher inflation won't drive down gold

28:42 AI craziness - momentum market

29:31 Trump wanted cuts but prospects disappearing

29:54 June FOMC - don't expect action

31:20 Fed balance sheet more important than Fed funds rate

33:11 Next week - bank report Monday

#373 Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes May 23, 2026

Show notes

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down how the Iran war situation is sinking GOP hopes for the midterms as he predicts double-digit inflation by year end driven by critical petroleum product shortages, with John Dizard warning rationing is coming to the United States for intensive products like gas turbine lubricants. Whalen explains the Fed will be forced to hike rates as early as July according to Diane Swonk, representing a dramatic shift from rate cut expectations just weeks ago, though raising rates won't help with external war-driven inflation and politics will eventually force cuts if the economy slows. He reveals real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for 15 years of dollar purchasing power loss, discusses how the politics of affordability will reshape the landscape with Republicans at risk of losing both House and Senate, and maintains his long gold position as inflation hedge while viewing silver as a commercial play on technology demand. Whalen details Kevin Warsh's strategy to shrink the Fed balance sheet while credibly cutting short-term rates by forcing markets to absorb more duration, explains why the 1970s stock market stagnation differs from today due to demographics and higher stock ownership, predicts Social Security will eventually be means-tested as the math has reversed from 10 workers per retiree to the opposite, and argues passive investment mechanisms killed crypto with Wall Street ETFs now controlling price action.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction - Inflation sinks GOP, private credit drama

0:37 Fed will have to get in front of inflation now

1:35 Iran situation sinking GOP hopes for midterms

2:21 Rationing coming to the United States - John Dizard prediction

3:21 Could hit double-digit inflation by year end

3:51 Walk through the double-digit inflation thesis

5:58 Real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for inflation

7:00 Knock-on effects of double-digit inflation

7:23 Politics of affordability will reshape US landscape

8:01 Republicans in danger of losing House and Senate

8:45 Diane Swonk thinks rate hike as early as July

9:01 How big of a shift is this in Fed's thinking?

9:53 Last time asset holders benefited - Will it be different this time?

11:49 Gold and silver behaving differently lately

13:09 Long gold as inflation hedge, silver as commercial play

14:01 Kevin Warsh could shrink Fed balance sheet while cutting short rates

17:39 Viewer mail - Inflation scenario with liquidity trap

20:11 Viewer question on Annaly dividend

22:11 1970s inflation vs today - Why stocks didn't make new highs then

24:05 Blue state housing policies debate

27:06 Social Security funding crisis - Means testing coming?

28:36 Third rail of American politics

28:49 Stablecoin reserve status question

31:02 Chris's parting thoughts - Significant change in narratives

33:03 Closing thoughts

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