Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#123 Cullen Roche On Inflation, Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates Soon, And Is The S&P 500 Broken? Dec 01, 2023

Show notes

Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 123.

Going into 2023, Cullen’s big call was disinflation, which was a largely correct call. In this episode, Cullen shares his views that it might take a full year for the Federal Reserve to hit the 2% target. Because of that, the Fed can’t start signaling rate cuts without risking a resurgence in inflation. Therefore, Cullen believes the Fed will remain tighter well into 2024, increasing the risk of a hard landing or credit event as we get deeper into 2024.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cullenroche

Discipline Funds: https://disciplinefunds.com/

Is The S&P 500 Broken? https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/21/is-the-sp-500-broken/

Pragmatic Capitalism: https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance-ebook/dp/B0B4V1KHVD

0:00 Welcome Cullen Roche to the show

1:03 Macro view

5:44 Real estate

10:13 How resilient is the economy really?

13:33 Disinflation call, 2024 outlook, road to 2% more difficult

17:29 Expect Fed to hold rates tight

18:23 Opportunities in bonds

20:28 Stock market is a 17-year instrument, duration of other asset classes

26:50 Allocating in this environment

30:00 Is the S&P 500 broken, are there hidden risks?

Marlinski Media produces the Julia La Roche Show: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

#122 Charles Payne On The Bifurcated Economy, Being An Unbreakable Investor, And The Roaring 2020s Nov 28, 2023

Show notes

Charles Payne, host of FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Making Money with Charles Payne (weekdays 2-3PM/ET), joined Julia La Roche on episode 122 to discuss his newest book, "Unbreakable Investor." Charles began his career on Wall Street as an analyst at E.F. Hutton in 1985. In 1991, he founded Wall Street Strategies, an independent stock market research firm where he serves as chief executive officer and principal analyst. He published his first book, "Be Smart, Act Fast, Get Rich" in May 2007, and "Unstoppable Prosperity: Learn the Strategy I’ve Used for Years to Beat the Market" in 2019. He joined FOX News Media as a contributor in 2007 and provides financial analysis across FBN and FOX News Channel.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cvpayne

Wall Street Strategies: https://www.wstreet.com/

Unbreakable Investor: https://www.unbreakableinvestor.com/

0:00 Intro and welcome Charles Payne

1:24 Big picture view, bifurcated economy and markets

2:51 Recession

4:15 Unbreakable Investor

6:34 Stock market

10:13 Roaring 2020s

12:28 Leadership

15:30 Outlook on the U.S.

19:30 Charles’ journey to Wall Street

25:50 Closing thoughts

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

#121 Raoul Pal: Get Ready For ‘Macro Summer’ — Falling Rates, Falling Inflation, And Growth Picking Up Nov 21, 2023

Show notes

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook, views on cryptocurrency and AI, and his Exponential Age thesis.

In this episode, Pal makes a case that we’re currently in the bottom of the business cycle and could be headed for what he’s coined as “macro summer” next year. According to Pal, a macro summer is the “holy grail for macro investing,” characterized by falling rates, falling inflation and growth picking up. Pal noted that tech stocks and crypto priced in a recession last year, and they’re forward-looking, indicating a more positive outlook for the economy, while the Russell 2000 and oil are more reflective of the present day and a slow economy.

Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the world's largest. Since retiring back in 2004 at age 36, he now authors a research letter, The Global Macro Investor (GMI), which is read by some of the most influential hedge funds and asset managers. He's also the founder of Real Vision, an online subscription media company specializing in long-form investor interviews.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi

GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/

https://www.realvision.com/

0:00 Welcome Raoul Pal

1:23 Macro view today

4:37 We’re at the bottom of the business cycle now

6:02 In “macro spring” headed for “macro summer”

7:50 Why rates will go lower faster than people think

8:27 Paying interest on the debt

10:15 Did we experience a recession already?

12:29 Inflation

14:15 False narratives in macro

16:12 Central Bank’s currency debasement

19:08 Destruction of the American Dream

21:51 The debt problem

26:30 The Exponential Age and the Everything Code

30:27 The darker view

32:40 Higher for longer

34:45 Portfolio construction in this environment

39:40 Robotics and UBI

43:13 Timeline on crypto and broader adoption

48:12 Psychology of the ups and downs

53:07 Acceleration of AI

54:04 Fourth Turning

55:30 Parting thoughts

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinksi Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

#120 Dr. Gary Shilling On Recession Risk, Inflation, Rate Cuts, And Bonds Nov 16, 2023

Show notes

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 120 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.

In this episode, Dr. Shilling predicts an imminent recession, citing key indicators such as the inverted yield curve and actions of the Federal Reserve, which is determined to curb inflation even at the risk of triggering a recession. He expects the Fed to be slower in cutting rates in the event of a recession, emphasizing their focus on ensuring inflation is under control and considering the labor market's slower response to economic changes.

Elsewhere, Shilling explores the correlation between Treasury bond yields and inflation, indicating that excess supply leads to lower inflation and, thus, lower interest rates. He believes the peak of interest rates has been reached and expects a rally in Treasuries.

He also shares his investment approach, favoring long treasuries, the US dollar, and short positions in stocks and commodities like copper. He's skeptical about the potential of commercial real estate and sees it as a current bubble.

0:00 Welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to the show

0:53 Macro picture today, recession outlook

3:40 Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target

4:30 Globalization

6:30 Rates and inflation

12:18 Bond market

15:20 Hard landing

18:13 What’s ahead for the Fed?

20:00 Higher for longer? Maybe, but I’m not convinced

21:17 Winners and losers in this environment?

23:44 Oil

26:26 U.S. Dollar outlook

28:09 Agnostic on gold

29:13 Bullish on Treasuries

30:46 Housing

37:37 A contrarian?

40:27 Commercial real estate bubble

42:46 Forecasting as an art

46:00 Beekeeping

51:20 Parting thoughts

#119 Michael Kao: The Four Horsemen Of Economic Resilience, And Why We Haven't Seen A Hard Landing (Yet) Nov 14, 2023

Show notes

Michael Kao (@Urbankaoboy) joins Julia La Roche on episode 119 to discuss his macro outlook, why we haven’t seen a hard landing yet thanks to the “four horsemen of economic resilience,” and why he’s favoring shorter duration assets in this economic environment.

Mike has been in the investment business for 30 years and has experience analyzing and investing in many markets and asset classes, spanning commodities to credit to convertible/capital structure/event arbitrage to distressed debt/equity investing.

Mike began his career in the commodities unit at J. Aron/Goldman Sachs in NYC in the early 90’s and traded over 25 different commodity markets and their derivatives. Mike left Goldman to pursue an MBA in Finance at The Wharton School.

After business school, Mike joined Canyon Partners, a credit-oriented hedge fund in Los Angeles, where he went on to become partner and co-founder of the Canyon Arbitrage Fund, which focused on various strategies including convertible and capital structure arbitrage as well as event-driven/risk arbitrage.

After 5 years at Canyon, Mike decided to leave Canyon and begin his own investment firm, Akanthos Capital Management, LLC. At Akanthos, Mike ran an opportunistic, value-driven investment strategy that looked for “fulcrum securities” up and down the capital structure.

Mike stopped actively managing external capital in 2019 and now invests primarily for his family office and enjoys blogging about the markets and economy on Substack at urbankaoboy.substack.com and Twitter @UrbanKaoboy.

Mike holds a BS in Electrical Engineering/Computer Science from UC, Berkeley and an MBA in Finance from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

Links:

https://www.urbankaoboy.com/

https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy

0:00 Welcome Michael Kao

0:51 Macro view / The Four Horsemen of economic resilience

7:43 Recessionary outlook in the “vodka-Red bull” economy

11:00 The dollar wrecking ball

15:30 The rest of the world ‘out-doving’ the Fed

19:23 Oil outlook

26:27 Portfolio construction, favoring shorter duration

33:00 Thinking about stocks and bonds

35:00 Exit strategies

41:16 Parting thoughts

#118 Jim Rogers: A Recession Is Not Here Today, But I Can See It Coming Nov 09, 2023

Show notes

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 118 to discuss the economy, markets, and where he’s finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation.

0:00 Welcome Jim Rogers back

1:18 Macro view ahead of an election

3:00 Recession outlook

4:48 Inflation

7:03 Bond market

10:15 Inflation globally

11:00 Allocating in a higher inflation environment

12:20 Silver, gold

14:13 Stocks

15:08 Short-selling

17:40 U.S. Dollar

21:34 Moving to Singapore

25:30 Guinness World Records

#117 Ted Oakley On Staying Rich With A Balanced Portfolio Nov 07, 2023

Show notes

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins in-person in Austin, Texas, for episode 117 to discuss the economy, markets, life, and his new book, “Stay Rich With A Balanced Portfolio.”

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more.

Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran.

Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality.

Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

0:00 Welcome Ted Oakley to the show

1:08 Macro outlook

3:10 Economic picture

5:06 Wealthy don’t mind being safe right now

8:00 Short-term treasuries

9:16 10-year Treasury

14:13 Inflation

17:15 Investor bias

20:20 Ted Oakley’s upbringing

27:04 Writing Staying Right With A Balanced Portfolio

30:30 Folks can afford to wait now

31:50 Psychology of investing

39:00 Gold

40:27 What is a balanced portfolio these days?

41:51 Every landing is hard

44:16 The small investor

46:20 The curse of second-generation wealth

#116 Lyn Alden On Broken Money, Higher Inflation, Gold, And Bitcoin Nov 02, 2023

Show notes

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 116 to discuss her new book, “"Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better.”

Links:

https://www.lynalden.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

0:00 Welcome Lyn Alden to the show

1:11 Macro picture

4:18 1940s comparison

9:04 Fiscal spiral

12:49 Inflation in Egypt

20:00 Expectations of a recession, higher inflation

23:20 Stagflationary outlook

25:30 Why is money broken?

28:44 160 currency bubbles

30:33 Why is the system so antiquated?

34:45 Self publishing

36:40 Role of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency

45:00 Gold

47:41 Bitcoin

51:30 Could Bitcoin ever be a bubble?

55:18 Role of central banks with the rise of Bitcoin

57:43 Parting thoughts

#115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession Oct 31, 2023

Show notes

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession.

Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."

Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others.

This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.

Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.

0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt

1:55 Macro picture

3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession

4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households

6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy

9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index

11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic

14:20 Law of diminishing returns

17:03 What does a hard landing look like

20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle

23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession

26:00 Debt, demographics

29:40 US dollar

30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier

36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL)

41:55 Contra normal developments

43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed

48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion

50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion

54:00 Classical economist

57:00 5 phases of the business cycle

#114 Bob Elliott On Why It's Time For A 10% Gold Allocation Oct 26, 2023

Show notes

Bob Elliott ( @BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 114 to discuss the macro picture, why the odds of a recession are increasing, and why it might make sense to allocate 10% of a portfolio to gold.

This episode was recorded on Friday, October 20.

Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.

Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.

0:00 Welcome Bob Elliott

0:45 Macro picture

2:30 Probability of a recession has gone up

5:20 Bond market

8:30 Bond sell-offs are self-correcting

14:20 Higher for longer, but how much longer?

18:03 Fed’s 2% target for inflation

20:20 Jamie Dimon’s 7% rates comment

22:29 Allocated to gold and diversified commodities