Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#103 Matt Higgins: The Only Way Out Is A Reckoning Sep 19, 2023

Show notes

Wall Street Journal bestselling author Matt Higgins, author of “Burn the Boats” and co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures — a private investment firm that focuses on sports and entertainment, media and marketing, food and lifestyle, and technology — joins Julia La Roche for episode 103 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, the consumer, artificial intelligence, and unlocking your individual potential.

Links:

Burn the Boats: https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Boats-Overboard-Unleash-Potential/dp/006308886X?

Matt Higgins on X: https://twitter.com/mhiggins

Matt Higgins on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-higgins-rse/

RSE Ventures: https://rseventures.com/

A quick correction: I mistakenly referred to an episode featuring Peter Cecchini in a discussion about the consumer. The episode I should have referred to would have been the most recent Larry McDonald episode (ep. 101). I apologize for the error. - Julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Matt Higgins

1:16 Macro view

2:29 The consumer is laboring under a mountain of debt

5:00 Housing market at a stalemate

6:03 “‘Soft landing’ is a euphemism for soft-peddling”

8:50 Valuations

10:45 Purpose of raising rates

13:12 Only way out is a reckoning

13:45 How is Matt Higgins preparing?

15:45 Bullish long-term

17:30 Greatest catalyst of wealth creation in our lifetime

20:12 Burn The Boats book

25:30 Metaphorical boats that hold you back

31:09 Career

35:50 Education system not designed to meet a student where they are

38:30 Opening up

41:30 Most important skills of a founder

42:45 Rex Ryan

46:15 Best part of the book

48:40 Parting thoughts

#102 Masha Bucher On The State Of Venture Capital, Investing In AI, And How To Navigate Today's Market Sep 14, 2023

Show notes

Masha Bucher, founder and general partner of Day One Ventures, joins Julia La Roche on episode 102 for a discussion of the state of venture capital, investing in artificial intelligence, valuations, navigating PR, the changing media landscape, meeting Jeff Bezos, and more.

https://www.dayoneventures.com/

0:00 Intro + welcome Masha to the show

1:08 Venture capital landscape today

2:40 Decreased interest in late-stage investing, not early-stage

4:50 Investing in AI ahead of the AI boom

7:45 Robotics

9:25 Correction for generative AI companies?

11:33 Meeting Jeff Bezos

14:00 Valuations

19:00 Investment activity

20:50 Vetting companies

26:48 Public relations to venture capital

31:35 When to get a PR agency?

36:12 Changing media landscape

40:00 Exits

45:35 Meeting founders through social

48:40 Starting a VC fund

#101 Larry McDonald: The Probability Of Sustained Stagflation Is Rising Sep 12, 2023

Show notes

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.

0:00 Welcome Larry to the show

1:00 Macro picture

2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising

3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation

5:32 Stagflation

9:20 One-year breakevens

10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI

14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market

18:40 Indexing creating a bubble

23:15 Regional bank risks

27:25 Buy into capitulation selling

29:17 Economic picture today

34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade

37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)

39:34 Zombies

42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value

47:00 Shift to stagflation

50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives

#100 Bill Ackman On Activist Investing, The Economy, And Learning From Mistakes Sep 07, 2023

Show notes

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman (@BillAckman), CEO of Pershing Square Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 100 for an exclusive and wide-ranging conversation. In this episode, Ackman revisits the various eras of his investing career, from his first stock purchase as a Harvard Business School student to his bet against MBIA and his activist stake in Wendy’s. He also discusses his transition to a “quieter” phase of activist investing and his foray into tech investing with the recent addition of Google's parent company, Alphabet. Along the way, Ackman shares lessons and insights on a range of topics, including raising capital in the face of rejection, learning from mistakes, and the importance of optimism and free speech. Ackman also provides an update on the macroeconomic outlook, shares his thoughts on the 2024 presidential election, discusses the recent regional banking crisis, and more.

0:00 Welcome Bill Ackman to the show

0:25 A ‘self study’ in investing

1:30 The first stock Ackman purchased

4:00 Raising capital like ‘blind dating’

5:45 Willingness to go against ‘the system’

8:30 Origins of Ackman’s persistence

9:20 Incentives drive human behavior

11:30 Learning from mistakes/failure

12:50 Optimism

15:05 Why Ackman/Pershing Square survived the challenging years

17:50 Codifying the eight principles in stone

19:30 Three eras of Pershing Square

26:30 Rise of passive/indexing

31:10 Twitter/ free speech

34:10 Macro assessment

35:30 Longer-term risks to the economy

37:45 2024 election

39:40 Would Ackman ever run for office?

41:10 Regional banks

43:00 Buying Google/ impact of AI

48:06 $600 million to philanthropy

50:30 Parenting

#099 Peter Cecchini: 3 Reasons Why We're Headed Toward Recession Aug 29, 2023

Show notes

Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession.

Links:

https://www.axoniccap.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/

0:00 Intro

0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp

2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession

4:19 American consumer

5:31 Equity markets

8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing

15:43 Vulnerabilities

18:08 Zombie companies

22:37 Fed outlook

26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation

27:50 Long and variable lags question

#098 Rick Rule: 'Potent And Very Ugly Cocktail' In A Rising Interest Rate Environment Aug 24, 2023

Show notes

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 98, featuring a discussion on the macro environment. Rule, who has 50 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He's long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic. 0:00 Intro 0:59 Macro picture 2:30 Arithmetic of the deterioration in purchasing power 4:10 Rich Men North of Richmond 5:20 Rule’s savings losing purchasing power at about 7% compounded 7:00 Severe but survivable 10:45 What is the fair value of gold? 12:50 No one size fits all for how to own gold 15:20 Arithmetic around long bonds is lousy 19:40 Underlying economy has been amazingly strong 22:47 A richer world is good for everyone 23:40 Future for younger generations

#097 Peter Borish: My Concern Is More Than A Recession Aug 22, 2023

Show notes

Legendary trader Peter Borish, president of the Computer Trading Corporation, joins Julia La Roche on episode 97. In this episode, Peter shares his macro outlook, and why we’re in the early stages of a longer term rising rate cycle. He also revisits his time working with Paul Tudor Jones at Tudor Investment Corp, the 1987 stock market crash and its aftermath, and some of the lessons and principles he’s learned over the years.

Links:

https://twitter.com/pborish

https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-borish-bb54119/

00:00 Intro

0:43 Macro view

2:30 This really isn’t the 70s

4:55 More like post WWII

7:14 Tax rate

8:42 Debt

11:38 Implications of higher rates

13:50 We’ll see wages go up more

14:53 S&P likely to move down from here

16:10 Difference between cautious/bearish

17:15 Concern is making policy mistakes

18:30 More on the markets

21:03 Risk management

23:10 Learning from mistakes

25:00 You have to trade your own personality

27:30 Advice for young people

29:50 1987 Crash

35:00 Robin Hood Foundation

38:00 Assessment of New York City today

40:30 Return to office

42:00 Brady Commission

44:40 Paul Tudor Jones

48:30 Parting thoughts

#096 Michael Howell: It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous Aug 17, 2023

Show notes

Michael Howell (@crossbordercap), CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 96 to discuss what's happening in the bond market. Howell recently shared a piece on his Substack, "It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous." Read the piece here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-bonds-not-banks-that-look-dangerous Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Intro 1:02 Macro view today 2:26 Why is the bond market so important 6:40 Pressures in the bond market 10:15 Term premia 14:43 BRIC economies’ gold-backed currency 16:16 Who is going to want to buy the Treasuries? 19:00 Bond market is distorted 22:50 US dollar 27:30 Liquidity

#095 Carol Roth: You Will Own Nothing Aug 15, 2023

Show notes

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 95 to discuss her newest bestseller, "You Will Own Nothing."

Links:

You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/

Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth

0:00 Intro

1:00 World War F

4:19 Writing for the underdog

7:50 Social credit

13:50 Useful idiots

19:45 Cancel culture

21:55 ESG

27:00 Elon Musk

29:50 Housing

35:20 More institutions buying homes

39:30 Macro picture

44:40 What can the individual do to reclaim the ‘American Dream’?

#094 Todd Gordon: Why We're Not Headed Toward Recession Aug 10, 2023

Show notes

Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 94 to break down markets and the opportunities he sees in this current environment.

Todd has been a CNBC contributor since 2010 and continues to provide actionable, insightful, and light-hearted commentary for CNBC. He is known for blending technical and fundamental analysis to interpret the ever-changing market landscape to produce specific trading and investment ideas for CNBC viewers and his clients. Currently, he is one of the only CNBC contributors who manages his actual investment account live with full transparency on the ‘TradingNation’ web show. He has appeared on various shows such as CNBC Fast Money Halftime show, Fast Money, Squawk Box, Power Lunch, Squawk Alley, Squawk on the Street, Money in Motion, and the CNBC Stock Draft.

He started his career as a professional proprietary trader of NYSE listed stocks in San Diego, California in 2001, then moved to Connors Capital, A CTA and hedge fund in 2004, and then back east on Wall St with Forex.com / Gain Capital. In that dual role, Todd wrote the widely followed Strategy of the Day research report, while trading for the parent company’s hedge fund GAIN capital during the 2008 financial crisis. Todd successfully guided his readers through that wild market time building enough of a following to launch his own research business TradingAnalysis.com in 2010.

Since 2010, TradingAnalysis has grown to serve clients in over 100 countries as Todd and his team guide their clients through the markets by trading their actual live portfolios showing the good, bad, and the ugly. He is gearing up to launch his own wealth management business in 2021.

Todd attended St Lawrence University while majoring in economics and competing on their Division I alpine ski racing team. He transferred out to focus on business at University at Albany, earning a Bachelors of Economics, where he continued his ski racing career.

Follow Todd on Twitter @toddgordonTA

0:00 Intro

1:16 Macro setup today

2:25 New age of investing

4:30 Soundbites and hot takes

6:00 Bullish?

8:18 Interpretation of the yield curve

12:35 Disinflationary environments and stocks

15:07 Tech boom

20:00 Rally is broader than you think

23:07 Relationship between US yields and value/growth rotation

27:23 Stocks in a rising rate environment