Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#133 Jim Bianco On Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 5.5%, Implications For Stock Market, And Concerns About The Bitcoin Spot ETF Jan 09, 2024

Show notes

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche to share his macroeconomic outlook, his prediction for 5.5% on the 10-year Treasury yield impact on the stock market, inflation, the US debt situation, and the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

twitter.com/BiancoResearch

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and macro outlook

03:07 Call for 5.5% 10-year Treasury and impact on the stock market

6:12 The pathway to 5.5%

8:08 The Fed's response to inflation

11:26 Soft Landing vs. No Landing

15:40 Implications of 5.5% on the 10-year

21:40 Why can’t we get to 2%?

28:38 Biggest worry with 5.5% on the 10-year

31:16 US debt crosses $34T

36:35 Bitcoin Spot ETF

44:40 Closing remarks

46:50 Consensus forecasts have been wrong

#132 Morgan Housel: Save Like A Pessimist And Invest Like An Optimist Jan 04, 2024

Show notes

Bestselling author Morgan Housel, partner at The Collaborative Fund and first-ever guest on The Julia La Roche Show returns for episode 132 to discuss his newest New York Times Bestseller Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. Morgan’s first book The Psychology of Money has sold over four million copies and been translated into 50 languages worldwide.

Morgan is a two-time winner of the Best in Business Award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, and winner of the New York Times Sidney Award. In 2022, MarketWatch named him one of the 50 most influential people in markets. He serves on the board of directors at Markel.

Takeaways

Managing expectations is crucial for happiness and success.
Social media can lead to inflated expectations and feelings of inadequacy.
Envy and the pursuit of status and success can hinder happiness.
Unforeseen consequences and tail risks play a significant role in shaping our lives.
Personal experiences can shape our perception of risk and influence our decision-making. Economic forecasts are in high demand because they reduce uncertainty, even if their track record is poor.
Calm periods in the economy or markets can lead to instability and eventual crises.
Simplicity and endurance are key to successful long-term investing.
Charlie Munger's legacy lies in his wisdom and willingness to share it with others.
Writing is a process of self-discovery and learning.

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and Catching Up

01:08 Surprising Success of 'The Psychology of Money'

02:24 The Value of Low Expectations

04:08 Managing Expectations and Balancing Optimism

07:28 The Dangers of High Expectations and Social Media

09:37 The Gap Between Expectations and Reality

12:59 The Inflation of Expectations

15:11 The Impact of Social Media on Happiness

18:30 Envy and the Pursuit of Status and Success

23:39 Risk and the Unforeseen Consequences

26:17 The World Hanging by a Thread

31:41 Personal Story: Skiing Accident and Risk Aversion

40:32 The Demand for Economic Forecasts

43:01 Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy

46:00 Investment Strategy: Simplicity and Endurance

48:23 Charlie Munger's Legacy

51:08 Writing for Self-Discovery

#131 Sallie Krawcheck: Nothing Bad Happens When Women Have More Money Dec 28, 2023

Show notes

In this conversation, Julia interviews Sallie Krawcheck, the CEO and founder of Ellevest, about the economy, the role of women in finance, and the retirement crisis.

Sallie shares her assessment of the economy and markets, emphasizing the importance of long-term investing and the historical growth of the stock market. She also discusses the significant impact women had on the economy in the past year and the growth of Ellevest as a platform for women's wealth-building.

Sallie reflects on her initial skepticism about starting a women-focused investing firm and the importance of overcoming imposter syndrome with a growth mindset. The conversation concludes with a shared love for their alma mater, UNC, and a reminder to support and promote women in finance.

Takeaways

Long-term investing in the stock market has historically delivered strong returns, making it a scalable way to build wealth.
Women played a significant role in the economy in the past year, defying stereotypes and embracing their spending power.
The retirement crisis disproportionately affects women, who have less wealth and live longer than men.
Women tend to be better investors than men, as they are less likely to panic and trade frequently.
Men have a crucial role to play in advancing gender equality and supporting women's financial empowerment.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Gratitude

00:46 Assessment of the Economy and Markets

03:12 The Role of Women in the Economy

04:48 Update on Ellevest

07:33 Sallie's Initial Skepticism and Change of Perspective

10:26 The Retirement Crisis and its Impact on Women

12:48Women's Investment Behavior and Performance

16:02 Regional Banking Crisis and Risks

20:01 Incentive Structures for Bank Executives

20:48 The Role of Men in Advancing Gender Equality

23:57 Overcoming Imposter Syndrome with a Growth Mindset

25:33 Shared Love for UNC and Closing Remarks

#130 Dr. Charles Calomiris On Fiscal Dominance And The Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements Dec 26, 2023

Show notes

Dr. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions Emeritus at Columbia Business School, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his recent paper, ⁠Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements⁠.

In this episode, Dr. Calomiris examines the state of the economy in the near-term and longer-term, as well as the fiscal challenges facing the U.S. According to Dr. Calomiris, there's a significant probability of a fiscal dominance problem arriving in the next decade. Fiscal dominance is the need for the government to fund its deficits on the margin with non-interest-bearing debts, also known as "inflation taxation."

He points out the need for political leadership and accountability in addressing the unsustainable promises of entitlement spending. Dr. Calomiris explains what could trigger panic in the bond market and the potential solutions, including taxing the banking system. He also discusses the implications of such policies on the banking system and the broader economy. Overall, he emphasizes the importance of addressing the long-term fiscal challenges to avoid a crisis in the future.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and background

01:01 Short-run and long-run perspective of the economy

03:23 The dysfunctional state of the economy, the blame is ours

06:37 Generational government accounting and political responsibility

10:06 We are not a grown-up society right now

11:20 Debt situation in the U.S.

13:53 The point of no return?

17:50 Less than a decade to make the political decision

19:50 Deficits, recessionary environment, and the consequences

23:00 Signs to look out for in the bond market

24:40 Fiscal Dominance and its definition

27:30 Will the government tax the banking system into almost oblivion?

28:50 Taxing the banking system and the inflation tax

34:00 If nothing changes, how implied annual inflation could be 35-40%

37:00 Fed could raise reserve requirements and pay zero interest to expand the inflation tax base, lower implied inflation rate

40:00 Impact on the banking system

46:17 The power of the Federal Reserve

51:00 Bitcoin

54:19 Parting Thoughts and Advice

Links:

Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements

Fragile By Design The Political Origins of Banking Crisis and Scarce Credit

#129 Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Analyst Who Nailed The 2023 Stock Market Rally, Shares His 2024 Market Outlook Dec 22, 2023

Show notes

Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat and FS Insight, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to share his market outlook.

Lee was among the bullish entering 2023, with a prescient call that the S&P 500 would rise 20% to 4,750 as inflation cooled off.

In this episode, Lee shared his 2024 market outlook, noting it’s a year that investors shouldn’t be afraid. He expects the S&P 500 will end 2024 at 5,200, but with a caveat that most of the gains will be in the second half of the year. He pointed out that his base case is the S&P could be flat or down 5% during the first half.

Looking ahead to 2024, Lee predicts positive changes in monetary policy and an earnings recovery cycle, with small caps and financials as top picks. He anticipates that small-cap stocks could outperform and rally as much as 50%. He also shares his bullish outlook on Bitcoin.

Takeaways

The successful call for 2023 was based on the belief that inflation would be transitory and volatility would collapse.
Investors got it wrong by focusing on a singular analogy and underestimating the importance of volatility.
For 2024, Lee predicts positive changes in monetary policy and an earnings recovery cycle, with small caps and financials as top picks.
Bitcoin is expected to have a strong year in 2024 due to dovish central banks and the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Links:

30-day free trial to FS Insight: https://bit.ly/485XjUl

https://fsinsight.com/

https://fundstrat.com/

Timestamps

0:00 Intro and welcome Tom Lee

1:13 Retrospective on 2023 market call, what people got wrong

5:13 Mass psychology playing a bigger role than ever

6:58 Institutional and retail investors reading from the same playbook

8:42 2024 outlook, a year investors shouldn’t really be afraid

14:12 Base case is S&P down/flat in first half, most gains in the second half

18:26 Small caps

21:10 S&P 5200

22:00 Sector positioning

24:20 ‘Permabull’ reference is a cheap shot

30:00 Bitcoin

32:00 Closing remarks

#128: Felix Zulauf: 'Hell Will Break Loose' — The Next Big Crisis In Late 2020s Will Be A Shocker Dec 19, 2023

Show notes

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, who is the founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, joined The Julia La Roche Show to share his insights on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the market. Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices.

In this episode, Zulauf predicted that the market will continue to rise in early 2024 due to the economy appearing stronger than expected. However, he anticipates a drop in equities due to a recession. He described the current market as a "rollercoaster," with ups and downs that could be particularly frustrating for passive investors. He suggested that these investors might see low or even negative total returns in the next decade. According to Zulauf, those who can play mini cycles could find the environment beneficial.

Zulauf also commented on the concentration of fund managers in the Magnificent 7, a level of concentration he has never seen in his 40-year career.

Turning to inflation, Zulauf argued that what we're currently seeing is only a "temporary victory" and that we have "not killed the inflation beast." He shared his thesis for the latter part of the 2020s, predicting a possible 10% inflation rate. He noted that while occasional crises have been managed and kept under control, he worries that the next big crisis in the late 2020s "will be a shocker." As he put it, "all hell will break loose," and the latter half of the decade will be characterized by social, economic, financial, and currency crises.

0:00 Intro and Welcome Felix Zulauf

1:12 Macro view, geopolitical impact, changing world order

2:40 Equity markets likely to go up first, then drop

3:50 Inflation could rise above 10%

5:20 Nimble and flexible

7:29 Playing the markets in the environment

9:40 Fund managers piling into Magnificent 7 stocks, never seen this kind of concentration

14:24 FOMC reaction, Fed outlook, rate cut likely

17:40 Late 2020s, higher inflation, debt trillion

19:38 Inflation cycle similar to late 60s/70s

21:15 Next inflation cycle will create a problem for the bond market

22:15 Yield curve control

23:30 Hell will break loose, next big crisis will be a shocker

24:30 Addressing the fiscal problems

25:37 Gold not just a monetary asset, but a geopolitical asset

30:40 Parting thoughts, Japanese Yen

#127 Grant Williams: Get Rid Of Certainty — Be Prepared For A Recession And A Soft Landing Dec 14, 2023

Show notes

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.

The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.

The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.

Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.

Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.

Links:

https://www.grant-williams.com/

https://twitter.com/ttmygh

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Grant Williams

1:30 Macro view

3:00 Two opposing ideas at once

5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong

8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen

9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook

10:29 Bank of Japan moves

13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies

17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.

18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan

21:00 1987 crash

23:50 People want to help

26:15 World views we form generationally

29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing

32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations

34:46 The Fourth Turning

39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk

42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.

43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense

44:11 Gold

51:02 CPI

57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career

#126 Liz Ann Sonders On The 2024 Market Outlook, A Different Investing Environment, And Why You Can’t Rule Out A Recession Dec 12, 2023

Show notes

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, discusses the macro picture, behavior of asset classes, active management, Federal Reserve outlook, interpreting economic data, the yield curve and recession, the bond market vs. equity market, and lessons from the legendary late Marty Zweig.

Takeaways

* The current economic cycle is characterized by rolling recessions, with different sectors experiencing periods of growth and contraction.

* The relationship between bond yields and stock prices has historically been negative during inflationary periods and positive during periods of economic growth.

* Active management may become more important in the new era, as market conditions change and there is greater dispersion in how securities behave.

* The Federal Reserve is likely to be in pause mode with regards to rate hikes, but a significant loosening of monetary policy is not expected.

*Interpreting economic data can be challenging due to the presence of crosscurrents and conflicting indicators.

* The yield curve has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions, but the timing and duration of recessions can vary.* The bond market and equity market may have different perspectives on the current economic environment, with the bond market being more cautious.

* Lessons from Marty Zweig include the importance of understanding how monetary policy influences asset prices and the value of sentiment analysis.

Links:

2024 Outlook: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-outlook-one-thing-leads-to-another

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders

On Investing Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-investing/id1711806955?ls=1&mt=2

Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Macro Picture

03:55 A Different Environment

05:29 Behavior of Asset Classes, Opportunities

08:52 Active Management in the New Era

10:25 Federal Reserve Outlook

14:07 Interpreting Economic Data

19:03 Yield Curve and Recession

22:27 Bond Market vs. Equity Market

25:21 Lessons from Marty Zweig

#125 Jason Calacanis On American Society And Getting Past The Victim Mentality, Friendship With Elon Musk And Owning The First Tesla Model S, The All-In Podcast And Leaving Millions On The Table Dec 07, 2023

Show notes

Angel investor and entrepreneur Jason Calacanis, “The World’s Greatest Moderator” and co-host/Bestie of All-In Podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 125 for a wide-ranging discussion. Calacanis, affectionately known as “J-Cal,” is one of the best angel investors in the world, having turned $100,000 into $100,000,000, with early investments in Uber, Calm, Robinhood, Wealthfront, and more. He co-hosts the popular All-In Podcast alongside Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg.

The conversation covers various topics, including the despicable display on Capitol Hill, the meaning of being an American, the impact of abundance on society. They also get into the breakout success of the All-In Podcast, interviewing presidential candidates, and how the show is leaving millions on the table by not having advertising.

In the conversation, Julia learns how Jason came to own the first Tesla Model S and 16th Roadster. They also got into some of the media scrutiny of Musk. In this conversation, Julia and Jason discuss the rise of independent creators and the shift away from traditional media networks. They explore the advantages of being an independent content creator and the potential for greater financial success.

Elsewhere, Jason shares his journey to success, highlighting the importance of hard work, seizing opportunities, and understanding every aspect of one's field. They also discuss finding purpose and joy in life, the power of partnerships, and the future of the All-In Summit.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Jason

The All-In Podcast: https://www.allinpodcast.co/

This Week In Startups: https://thisweekinstartups.com/

Newsletter: https://calacanis.substack.com/

Launch: https://www.launch.co/

Angel University: https://www.angel.university/online

More links: https://linktr.ee/calacanis/

0:00 Welcome Jason Calacanis

2:14 Antisemitism on college campuses, Harvard, MIT, and UPenn on Capitol Hill

6:20 Identity politics madness is coming to an end

850 Why has America drifted?

10:50 Democracy + capitalism

13:20 Get rid of the victim mentality

15:55 Hard work pays off, keep adding skills

20:14 Success of the All-In Podcast

23:00 Presidential candidates on the All-In Podcast

26:30 All-In Summit

28:40 All-In leaving $25 million on the table

29:35 Elon Musk and how Jason got the first Tesla Model S

35:14 Media scrutiny of Musk

40:50 Podcasting and rise of independent creators

43:50 Power of going the independent route

54:40 Jason’s background and journey to success

54:00 Finding purpose and joy

56:20 Besties and the power of partnerships

#124 Michael Howell: Rising Liquidity, Monetary Inflation, And Why Gold Could Surge To $3,000 Dec 05, 2023

Show notes

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 124 to share where we are in the global liquidity cycle and why gold is ready for a breakout moment.

Links:

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

0:00 Intro and welcome Michael Howell to the show

1:00 Macro picture today

2:15 2024 outlook, why liquidity is increasing

6:30 Global Liquidity Index

8:53 Gold, global liquidity, and U.S. CPI

16:00 Gold is not the inflation hedge you think

17:30 Gold holdings of BRICS & friends