Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call Mar 19, 2024

Show notes

Amy Nixon, a housing and economic analyst, makes her first podcast appearance in six months after making a pivot on her deflationary recession call.

In his episode, Amy discusses the current macroeconomic environment and the challenges it presents. She highlights the combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy as a significant factor in the economy.

Amy shares her experience of adapting her forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions.

She also discusses the state of the housing market, the impact of institutional buyers, and the future of real estate agents. Amy addresses the concerns of millennials in the housing market and offers insights into owning a home as an investment.

Links:

https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW

Takeaways

The combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is a significant factor in the current macroeconomic environment.
Adapting forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions is crucial for accurate analysis.
The housing market is facing challenges due to tight credit, low transaction volume, and high liquidity.
Owning a home as an investment can be beneficial for wealth building, especially for individuals without much investment knowledge.
The future of the economy is influenced by factors such as inflation, political decisions, and market dynamics.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and macro view of the economy

01:18 Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy

03:15 The importance of admitting mistakes and analyzing new data

04:12 Adapting forecasts and expectations for 2023 and 2024

04:23 The impact of changing analysis on housing market

09:46 The state of the housing sector

12:38 The impact of institutional buyers on the housing market

21:15 The housing market and Millennials

25:21 Owning a home as an investment

26:03 The Airbnb bust thesis

32:06 Inflation and the future of the economy

#152 Brian Hirschmann: This Is Probably The Most Dangerous Time In US Financial History Mar 13, 2024

Show notes

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, makes his debut on episode 152 of The Julia La Roche Show.

In this episode, Hirschmann argues that we're currently in the most dangerous time in financial history and that three bubbles—stocks, real estate, and global bonds—could all burst.

Hirschmann also makes the case that we'll likely see more persistent inflation in the future, given the massive deficits and debt burden. He argues that the price of gold could soar to $7,000.

For investments, he favors gold miners and exposure to international equities.

Links: https://www.hcapital.llc/

00:00 Introduction and Macro View of the Economy

00:43 Dangerous Time in US Financial History

03:08 Consequences of Crisis Suppression Policy

04:35 US Equity and Real Estate Bubbles

06:27 Government Debt Problem

08:20 Global Government Debt Crisis

09:47 Government Debt Crisis and Private Sector Recession

11:03 Gold's Performance and Market Environment

13:13 Factors Affecting Gold's Valuation

19:36 Fed Policy and Fiscal Dominance

23:39 Impact of Fiscal Dominance on Gold

27:26 Investing in Gold Mining Companies

31:53 Impact of Bubbles Bursting

35:36 Potential Impacts of Recession

40:10 Likelihood of Recession

44:21 Closing Remarks

#151 Whitney Tilson On The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom Mar 12, 2024

Show notes

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, now Editor at Stansberry Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, and common mistakes investors make.

Whitney discusses the strength of the macro picture and the importance of not betting against America.

In this conversation, Whitney shares stock picks, reflects on missed opportunities, and discusses the importance of letting winners run. He also talks about closing his hedge fund, lessons learned, and the wisdom he gained from the late Charlie Munger.

Tilson emphasizes the need for patience and discipline in investing and highlights the five calamities that can derail a successful life.

Links:

Stansberry Research: https://stansberryresearch.com/our-team/whitney-tilson

The Art of Playing Defense: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Playing-Defense-Falling-Behind-ebook/dp/B091QFHJ6B

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction

00:55 Big picture view of the economy and markets

02:43 Caution against letting politics influence investment decisions

03:38 The mistake of predicting gloom and doom

05:24 Betting against America doesn’t make sense

06:59 There are warning flags, but stocks aren’t in bubble territory

8:10 Bitcoin smells frothy, but ‘I would never short it’

09:22 Stock Picks: Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, and other opportunities

10:02 Bitcoin is an instrument of pure speculation

15:56 Stock pick ideas - Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, etc.

21:26 Introduction to Warren Buffett and value investing

26:48 Stock exchanges as interesting investment opportunities

29:08 Lessons from missed opportunities

36:07 The importance of letting winners run

38:50 Reflecting on closing the hedge fund, mental mistakes investors make

43:48 Running a Hedge Fund with Patience and Discipline

46:13 Charlie Munger's legacy

50:06 The Art of Playing Defense

#150 Alfonso Peccatiello On The Risk of a Global Recession Triggered by China's Deleveraging And The Spillover Effects Not Many Are Paying Attention To Mar 07, 2024

Show notes

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations.

He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies.

Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund.

Takeaways

Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated.
The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process.
The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient.
Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf

The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction

00:22 The macro view

03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’

05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative

08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns

11:42 Spillover effects from China

15:41 Possible recession and risks

27:14 Conclusion

#149 Jeff Snider: We're Still On The Same Path To Recession Mar 05, 2024

Show notes

Jeff Snider, host of the Eurodollar University podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the current macroeconomic picture, characterized by confusion and ambiguity.

In this episode, Jeff explains the Fed's focus on consumer prices and the risks associated with this approach. Jeff also highlights the lurking risks in the commercial real estate market and the Chinese real estate bubble. He provides insights on asset allocation and portfolio construction in this uncertain environment.

Jeff is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University (https://www.eurodollar.university/) aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:05 Welcome Jeff and the macro view

03:08 Confusion and ambiguity in the economy

07:24 The Fed's focus on consumer prices

08:43 Market pricing and signaling

11:57 What the Fed should be focused on

14:30 Ambiguity in economic data

23:51 Fiscal support and the economy

26:39 Lurking risks: Commercial real estate and China

31:10 Asset allocation and portfolio construction

33:47 Eurodollar University and parting thoughts

#148 'Convexity Maven' Harley Bassman: The Market Is Ahead Of The Fed By A Lot Feb 29, 2024

Show notes

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his macro view of the economy and markets.

He believes that the market is ahead of the Fed and that inflation will not come down as quickly as people think due to demographic factors. Bassman also discusses the yield curve and its implications for a recession.

He recommends investing in mortgage-backed securities due to their attractive risk-return profile.

Finally, Bassman, the "Convexity Maven," explains convexity and its importance in bond investing.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/convexitymaven

Convexity Maven: https://www.convexitymaven.com/

Simplify Asset Management: https://www.simplify.us/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and macro view

03:03 Inflation and Fed Policy

05:01 Inflation expectations

07:26 Yield Curve and recession

10:06 Trade Opportunities in bonds

14:47 Mortgage-Backed Securities and convexity

19:55 Rate expectations and mortgage bond trade

20:15 Understanding convexity

25:55 Wrap up

#147 Andreas Steno On Why The Resurgence In Inflation Could Mean Another Rate Hike From The Fed Feb 27, 2024

Show notes

Andreas Steno, founder of Steno Research, discusses the resurgence of inflation and its impact on the global economy, and his contrarian take that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate hike.

In this episode, Steno highlights the labor market as a major driver of inflation, with wage pressures increasing due to labor scarcity. Steno suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates instead of cutting them, but acknowledges the political challenges of such a move.

He also discusses the macro situation in Europe, with Germany and France struggling while southern European economies thrive.

Steno is the former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea, Northern Europe's largest bank.

This episode was recorded on February 19.

Links:

https://stenoresearch.com/

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction

00:49 The macro view: inflation resurgence

02:38 Indicators of inflation resurgence

04:40 Labor market and wage pressures

07:00 Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

09:00 Possibility of a rate hike

10:26 Implications for markets

14:12 Structural changes in the labor market

15:48 Surprising rebound in asset markets

18:50 The European macro situation

21:40 Implications of production shifts in Europe

24:00 Watching Europe from the outside

26:00 Portfolio construction

27:50 The Fed's rate hikes paused too soon

29:15 Parting thoughts

#146 Darius Dale: We’re Pivoting To A Reflation Macro Regime — What It Means For Markets Feb 22, 2024

Show notes

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 146.

In this episode, Darius discusses the current market regime and the transition to a reflation regime. He explains the drivers of the reflation regime and the implications for portfolio construction. Dale also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and interest rate policy in the current environment. He highlights the importance of liquidity and its impact on asset markets. Dale concludes by discussing the risks and benefits of the reflation regime and the potential for a market correction.

Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale.

Links:

42 Macro https://42macro.com/

Darius on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/dariusdale42

42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro

42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro

0:00 Introduction and macro view

1:20 Reflation regime and drivers

6:29 Understanding the Global Macro Risk Matrix

11:50 FOMC and interest rate policy

15:49 Liquidity cycle and implications

21:46 Benefits and drawbacks of the reflation regime

22:05 Risks and existing economic conditions

28:45 Risk of market correction

31:43 Parting thoughts, more on 42 Macro

#145 David Woo, Analyst Who Nailed The 2016 And 2020 Elections, Sees Huge Headwind For The Economy Ahead Of The 2024 Vote Feb 20, 2024

Show notes

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 145 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics.

In this episode, Woo shares his macro framework, emphasizing the intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics and the need to understand their impact on market outcomes. Woo also explores the potential risks and challenges facing the US economy, including political instability and polarization.

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy, & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 and the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested. With the increased political polarization in the U.S., Woo sees a real pressure point once we enter the third quarter.

“Once we get into July, we're four months away from the election, I think it's going to feel like shit. I think America, Americans are going to be petrified about what is going to be in store for the country in the final four months leading up to the election,” Woo said, adding that when safeguards to the system get “seriously stress tested” it will be “a huge economic headwind” to households and companies.

Elsewhere, he shares contrarian investment views and highlights the importance of facts and numbers in public discourse. Finally, Woo discusses his work with David Woo Unbound and the mission to bring diverse perspectives together for meaningful discussions.

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

0:00 Intro

1:18 Macro view and why it’s harder to make money

3:05 Intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics

4:52 Biden has to get the economy right, needs a soft landing

6:50 Game Theory with oil prices

9:00 Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy

13:00 Government spending contributed 1/3 of GDP growth last year

17:30 Economic risk in the U.S.

18:40 Political risk

22:00 Political division ahead of election day

26:26 Contrarian views and ideas today

34:44 Perception of the U.S. from the outside

42:20 Parting thoughts

#144 David Rosenberg: Recessionary Forces Are Building And The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests Feb 15, 2024

Show notes

Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he’s not throwing in the towel on his recession call.

Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators.

Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury.

SPECIAL OFFER: Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show can access a free 30-day trial of Rosenberg Research with no upfront commitment. The free trial grants access to Rosenberg Research’s premium service, where you’ll receive complimentary macro and market insights every day.

Request a trial at this link: https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture

0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel

2:55 State of the consumer

4:15 Fiscal stimulus

6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns

7:30 Recession call

10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy

12:00 GDP and GDI

14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings

15:00 Employment