Business

The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Latest Episodes:

#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American Apr 23, 2024

Show notes

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, returns to the pod to join Julia La Roche on episode 163 to discuss his newest book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security.”

The Algebra of Wealth book: https://www.amazon.com/Algebra-Wealth-Formula-Financial-Security/dp/0593714024

0:00 Intro and welcome Scott Galloway

1:04 Macro picture of the economy

3:03 Prosperity is not evenly distributed generationally

5:32 The Algebra of Wealth

7:30 Don’t follow your passion, follow your talent

9:20 Focus + Stoicism x Time x Diversification

9:56 Galloway went broke twice

12:25 Divorce

13:30 Having children

15:35 Myth of balance

17:00 Raised by a single mom

21:00 We’re turning into something that’s not very American

25:31 Investing and harvesting

27:00 Our economic policy is we’ve declared war on the young

24:47 Universities, free speech, and antisemitism on campuses

32:32 DEI

38:15 Masculinity

50:00 Parting thoughts

#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does Apr 18, 2024

Show notes

Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal of the Fitz-Gerald Group, shares his macro view of the world and the five big picture lenses through which he sees the world.

He believes that investing in optimism and knowing where the world is going is better than trying to be right at specific moments in time. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have great demand for their products and services and can change consumer behavior. Keith also discusses the role of the Fed and the importance of investing in optimism rather than trying to second-guess the unpredictable actions of the Fed.

Link: https://www.keithfitz-gerald.com/

00:00 Introduction and welcome Keith to the show

0:53 Simple is better

1:50 The five Ds

2:50 Does the Fed matter?

5:30 The AI Opportunity and Changing the World

8:22 Keith Fitz-Gerald’s S&P 4750 target in 2023

10:50 Buying right now — chaos creates opportunity

13:00 History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes

14:00 Geopolitics and markets

15:55 When in doubt, zoom out

17:13 Portfolio construction

19:03 Took out S&P 500 price target, 5500-5600 may be next stop

20:20 The Fed needs to stay on sidelines

22:40 Are markets healthy?

26:00 Outlook for the U.S.

26:50 Gold

29:20 Parting thoughts

#161 Michael Howell On Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, Gold, The US Dollar Apr 16, 2024

Show notes

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 161 to discuss the global liquidity cycle and its impact on the economy.

He explains that liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and that the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. Howell argues that the focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced, and that the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. He also highlights the importance of liquidity in the refinancing of debt and warns of the risks of a liquidity shortage. Howell suggests that investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.

Links:

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

Takeaways

Liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher.
The focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced; the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors.
A shortage of liquidity can lead to banking and refinancing crises.
Investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

1:38 Macro view + liquidity cycle

3:07 Interest rates

6:10 What really matters is the integrity of the US Treasury market

07:47 Hedging Against Monetary Inflation

9:16 Gold

11:56 US public debt

15:15 Monetizing the debt

18:06 Gold is the pole star in the financial system

20:40 US dollar

26:29 Inverted yield curve

31:37 Conclusion and parting thoughts

#160 Bill Fleckenstein: The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation Apr 11, 2024

Show notes

Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, discusses the macro view of the world and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.

He criticizes the Fed for its incompetence and reckless policies that have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.

Fleckenstein also highlights the power of the passive bid in distorting the market and the importance of understanding its effects. He believes that the stock market has become a lagging indicator and that the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.

Elsewhere, Fleckenstein discusses the bond market, gold, and silver. He also expresses concerns about the US national debt and the lack of fiscal responsibility.

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap

Website:https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

Takeaways

The Federal Reserve's incompetence and reckless policies have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.
The passive bid, driven by defined contribution plans and 401k plans, has distorted the market and changed what works and what doesn't.
The stock market has become a lagging indicator, and the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.
The US national debt is a significant concern, and there is a lack of fiscal responsibility.
Gold and silver are seen as insurance policies against inflation and financial disruptions.

Chapters

0:00 Introduction and welcome Bill Fleckenstein

0:55 Macro view and what the Fed does really matters

4:30 The distorting effects of the passive bid

6:30 The stock market is a lagging indicator

10:45 Equity markets in a bubble or not?

13:30 End game — long end of the bond market rates rise

18:26 Inflation and the inflation psychology

23:53 The Fed’s inflation fight, Fed cutting rates would be an obvious mistake

26:30 The economy and millennials

29:49 Gold price, gold market has figured out Fed is trapped

34:44 Silver

37:04 Outlook on the U.S. and conclusion

#159 Lyn Alden On Fiscal Dominance Macro Backdrop, Why The Rise In Gold Is Indicative Of Fiscal Problems, And Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six-Figures In This Cycle Apr 09, 2024

Show notes

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 159 to discuss the macro view of the economy, focusing on fiscal dominance.

Alden highlights the wide performance gaps between sectors, which are influenced by fiscal and monetary policies. She discusses the implications of fiscal dominance and the challenges it poses for the Fed's tools to control inflation.

Alden also shares her insights on asset markets, including the rise of gold, Bitcoin, and undervalued energy stocks.

Links:

https://www.lynalden.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact

00:00 Introduction and overview

01:16 Fiscal dominance and its impact sectors

04:37 Fiscal dominance, explained

09:37 Higher highs, higher lows of inflations in 2020s

12:20 Ironically stimulative

16:18 Assessment of the economy, is it healthy?

18:53 Asset markets, rise in gold is indicative of fiscal problems

22:00 undervalued energy stocks and their catalysts

25:33 Insights on Bitcoin, its performance, why it could hit six-figures in next two years

30:17 Conclusion and parting thoughts

#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets Apr 04, 2024

Show notes

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his newest book, “How To Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy.”

According to McDonald, we’re in the financial equivalent of the “Fourth Turning,” where the macro regime has shifted from a disinflationary, austerity-driven world to a new era of sustained inflation and increased demand for hard assets. As such, trillions of dollars of assets are currently misallocated.

McDonald highlights the potential for a colossal energy and commodity crisis in the coming years, driven by factors such as the aging power grid, global conflicts, and rising carbon consumption in developing countries. He suggests reallocating portfolios to include a higher component of commodities.

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

00:00 Introduction and welcome Larry McDonald

01:21 The macro outlook and the shift to a new era

06:00 A different macro regime, great migration into a totally different portfolio construction

09:05 Inflation

11:53 Trillions are misallocated

16:00 Recency bias

20:23 Early innings in commodities

22:00 Headed for a colossal commodities crisis

26:57 Bitcoin, gold, and silver

31:50 Closing remarks

#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy Apr 02, 2024

Show notes

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 157 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.

In this episode, Dr. Shilling discusses the current economic picture, including the possibility of a soft landing and signs of a potential recession. He highlights the narrowing focus of the stock market and the amount of speculation in certain areas. Dr. Schilling also discusses the labor market, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the impact of inflation on interest rates.

Elsewhere, he shares his investment themes, including the US dollar and the preference for US Treasuries. Dr. Shilling addresses the debt situation in the US. He also points to the risks in commercial real estate.

He concludes by emphasizing the importance of finding hidden flaws and going against the consensus in making investment decisions.

You can Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll-free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Shilling

01:01 Current macro picture, economy isn’t looking like it’s going into a major recession

06:21 Not a healthy economy, highly dependent on labor market and employment

07:07 Federal Reserve and interest rate policy

10:09 Consumer bifurcation

11:35 Interest rates

17:40 Hidden flaws

21:00 Investment themes

25:35 US Treasuries

27:26 Debt situation in the US

32:12 Bubble on the radar? Commercial real estate

36:42 Conclusion

#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks Mar 27, 2024

Show notes

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156.

In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator.
Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet.

Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969.

Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.

He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.

Links:

https://www.mcoscillator.com/

https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc

0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan

0:55 Macro view

1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks

2:45 Recession is coming

4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits

5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks

8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June

10:57 McClellan Oscillator

13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns

15:20 Taxes could be a problem

20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long

25:30 Recession call

27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge

29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy

35:05 Gold

37:00 Bitcoin

38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story

44:00 Parting thoughts

#155 Meredith Whitney On The 'Bifurcated' Economy And Consumer, Why It Will 'Pay To Be Patient' For Young Homebuyers, And The Coming 'Silver Tsunami' Mar 26, 2024

Show notes

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer.

Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending.

Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care and housing.

Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt.

Links:

https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer

04:19 Sentiment

05:58 Housing market and homeownership

09:21 Timeline for home prices

10:38 Demographic changes and solutions

12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans

20:31 National debt and foreign buyers

22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget

23:44 Fear and impact of research calls

32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group

#154 Dr. Art Laffer: We Are In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution And It's Destroying Growth Mar 21, 2024

Show notes

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 154.

Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics.

Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.

In our wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Laffer shares his insights on the current state of the U.S. and global economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and his outlook for the future.

Links:

https://www.amazon.com/Taxes-Have-Consequences-Income-History/dp/1637585640

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and Overview

01:08 The Five Pillars of Prosperity

11:13 Factors Leading to the Current Situation

26:08 Addressing Incentives in Politics

30:41 The Flawed Logic of Stimulus Spending

35:17 The Fallacy of Redistribution

37:38 The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

38:04 The Lack of Economic Understanding Among Professional Economists

39:02 The Laffer Curve and Tax Rates